So according to Smilin' Ken Rosenthal, some MLB executives think that the Astros might be in on Shin-Soo Choo, whose contract is shaping up to be "almost as lucrative" as Jacoby Ellsbury's $153m deal with the Yankees.
This is preposterous, but let's do it for the sake of keeping you entertained.
In his career (715 games/3204 PAs), Jacoby Ellsbury has a .297/.350/.439 line with 251 extra-base hits and 241 stolen bases.
In his career (853 games/3677 PAs), Shin-Soo Choo has a .288/.389/.465 line with 323 extra-base hits and 105 stolen bases.
Ellsbury also has averaged a 12.9 UZR/150 rating from 2011-2013, while in the same time frame Choo has averaged a -9.1 UZR/150.
I don't think it'll happen (but what do I know?), but we might as well acknowledge that "some" MLB executives at least think it's a possibility. But $153m? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Astros sign Chad Qualls
Yep. That Chad Qualls.
The Astros signed Chad Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - to a two-year deal today worth $6m plus incentives. Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - was the Astros' 2nd Round pick (67th overall) in the 2000 draft and has the highest WAR of any player drafted in the 2nd Round. Chad Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - played with Houston from 2004-2007, and in 284IP allowed 267H/107ER, 218K:84BB with six saves. In December 2007 Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - was traded with Chris Burke to Arizona for Jose Valverde, and has been a part of the Diamondbacks, Padres, Phillies, Yankees, and Marlins organizations.
For Miami in 2013, Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - threw 62IP (66 games), allowing 57H/18ER, 49K:19BB with a career-best 2.61 ERA/1.22 WHIP with a 1.8 WAR (via Baseball-Reference; FanGraphs gave him a 0.5 WAR). But to put that in perspective, only Jose Veras had a higher WAR (FanGraphs) as a reliever than Qualls in 2013, and no reliever had a higher B-R version of WAR than Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - in 2013.
Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - stranded 82.9% of runners and induced a career-high 63.3% groundball rate. His 2.61 ERA slightly outperformed his FIP (3.32) and xFIP (3.25), but both of those would have been perfectly acceptable for the Astros in 2013.
He will be 36 next August, so the Astros are paying for his 36- and 37-year old seasons. Does he provide an upgrade for the bullpen? If you have to ask yourself that question, then clearly you have erased 2013 from your mind and I would like to know your method.
The Astros signed Chad Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - to a two-year deal today worth $6m plus incentives. Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - was the Astros' 2nd Round pick (67th overall) in the 2000 draft and has the highest WAR of any player drafted in the 2nd Round. Chad Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - played with Houston from 2004-2007, and in 284IP allowed 267H/107ER, 218K:84BB with six saves. In December 2007 Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - was traded with Chris Burke to Arizona for Jose Valverde, and has been a part of the Diamondbacks, Padres, Phillies, Yankees, and Marlins organizations.
For Miami in 2013, Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - threw 62IP (66 games), allowing 57H/18ER, 49K:19BB with a career-best 2.61 ERA/1.22 WHIP with a 1.8 WAR (via Baseball-Reference; FanGraphs gave him a 0.5 WAR). But to put that in perspective, only Jose Veras had a higher WAR (FanGraphs) as a reliever than Qualls in 2013, and no reliever had a higher B-R version of WAR than Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - in 2013.
Qualls - yes, that Chad Qualls - stranded 82.9% of runners and induced a career-high 63.3% groundball rate. His 2.61 ERA slightly outperformed his FIP (3.32) and xFIP (3.25), but both of those would have been perfectly acceptable for the Astros in 2013.
He will be 36 next August, so the Astros are paying for his 36- and 37-year old seasons. Does he provide an upgrade for the bullpen? If you have to ask yourself that question, then clearly you have erased 2013 from your mind and I would like to know your method.
Friday, December 6, 2013
Eric Thames signed with a Korean team
So this is interesting:
According to @OrmuzSojo, the NC Dinos have signed Eric Thames aka @Therealhulk14 http://t.co/N25LhqTzUs #KBO #NCDinos
— Dan (@MyKBO) December 6, 2013
The NC Dinos are a Korean team, so that would indicate to just about everybody, that he's not playing for the Astros in 2014.Upgrading the rotation
With the news that the Astros signed Scott Feldman for three years and $30m, my immediate thought was, "The Astros just upgraded their facial hair." My second thought was, "Well this certainly upgrades the rotation." But I didn't have any data on hand to confirm that. Let's look...
Feldman, 2013:
181.2IP, 159H/78ER, 3.94 ERA/1.09 WHIP
132K:56BB. 105 ERA+. 2.36 K:BB ratio
Feldman, 2011-13:
337.1IP, 323H/162ER, 4.32 ERA/1.25 WHIP
250K:98BB. 98 ERA+. 2.55 K:BB ratio
Okay, we can also see that his FIP (4.03) and his xFIP (3.96) is right in line with his ERA for the year, so there aren't any unwelcome surprises. And if you look at his 2012 season, where he had a 5.09 ERA, his FIP (3.81) and xFIP (3.87) far outperformed what you could reasonably expect. Over the last two years, he's averaged 2.2 WAR.
Erik Bedard was a 1.5 WAR pitcher, Jordan Lyles was a 0.8 WAR pitcher - so just right there, you can see that Feldman is an upgrade, with far better peripherals. Bedard walked 4.43 BB/9 in 2013 - Feldman hasn't had a season with a BB/9 over 3.00 since 2009. Lyles got 5.83 K/9 in 2013 - Feldman got 6.54 K/9. Bedard got a 35.6% groundball rate in 2013 and while Lyles somehow got a 48.5% GB%, Feldman's GB% was 49.6%.
So for an average annual salary of $10m, the Astros added a perfectly average pitcher. And if that's not an upgrade over 2013, I don't know what is.
Astros Sign Scott Feldman
Another of the moves Luhnow has been hinting at dropped today, as the Astros signed Scott Feldman to a 3 year deal with 30 million dollars. Feldman is 31.
Feldman was a Ranger up until last year, when he signed a one year deal with the Chicago Cubs. He was traded mid-season to the Orioles, and apart from a horrific last start to the season, pitched very well for them, ending the year with a 3.86 ERA and a 12-12 records. The year before was a bit rougher as far as the ERA went, but his peripherals were roughly the same. In fact, he has had a FIP between 3.80 and 4.00 the past three years, and that is roughly what we can expect from him in Houston.
Feldman will serve to solidify the rotation with a veteran presence, which has been one of the goals of the off season. Its not an overly exciting signing, but Feldman is a good pitcher, and 10 million per year seems to be the going rate for those this off season.
Feldman was a Ranger up until last year, when he signed a one year deal with the Chicago Cubs. He was traded mid-season to the Orioles, and apart from a horrific last start to the season, pitched very well for them, ending the year with a 3.86 ERA and a 12-12 records. The year before was a bit rougher as far as the ERA went, but his peripherals were roughly the same. In fact, he has had a FIP between 3.80 and 4.00 the past three years, and that is roughly what we can expect from him in Houston.
Feldman will serve to solidify the rotation with a veteran presence, which has been one of the goals of the off season. Its not an overly exciting signing, but Feldman is a good pitcher, and 10 million per year seems to be the going rate for those this off season.
Frank Thomas v. Jeff Bagwell
Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas are inexorably linked. They were the preeminent first baseman in the 90's, both winning the MVP in 1994. More than that, though, they share a birthday, both born on May 27, 1968. Because of his connection to Bagwell, Thomas was my favorite American League player in the 90's.
The general consensus I'm seeing is that Frank Thomas is likely to be inducted in his first year of eligibility, and will almost certainly receive more votes than his birthday mate. He's already got one more vote, as Bob Sansavere dropped Bagwell in favor of Thomas on his ballot this year. Here's the thing, though. Bagwell was better. There should be no reason to check the box next to Frank Thomas's name without also checking Bagwell's*
Thomas was probably marginally better than Bagwell on offense, but its much closer than it might look at first glance. Thomas ended up with more counting stats, largely because he played three more seasons after Bagwell retired at 37. However, they were very close through age 37. In fact, following their age 37 season, Bagwell has 449 HR compared with Thomas's 448, and led the RBI count 1,529 to 1,465. Of course, Thomas was very good in his age 38 season, and not awful at 39, so of course he gets credit for that. Thomas also has slight leads in all the rate stats, with a .301/.419/.555 line compared with Bagwell's 297/.408/.540. Thomas's career 154 wRC+ ranks 21st all time. Bagwell's 149 ranks 30th. While Thomas was slightly better on offense than Bagwell, both rank among the all time greats.
And that's where it ends with Thomas. Thomas was a first basemen in his MVP years, but very quickly switched to the DH position. He did not start over 100 games at 1st after 1996. In total he was a first baseman in only 971 of the 2322 games he played. And he wasn't exactly a gold glover at first when he was there. In fact, Fangraphs ranks Frank Thomas as the worst defensive first baseman of all time, by a fairly wide margin. He was also poor on the basepaths, accumulating -34.7 runs.
In contrast, Jeff Bagwell was a good fielding first baseman, winning the gold glove in 1994 (and possibly even deserving it), and was a net positive on the basepaths as well. He twice stole 30 bases in a season, and ended up with 202 total, against only 78 caught, for a 72% success rate.
Add it all up, and you get a picture of a one-dimensional offensive force versus a true 5 tool player. WAR agrees, as both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have Bagwell in the lead. A vote for Thomas and not Bagwell is a vote that defense and baserunning do not matter at all (shades of the Trout/Cabrera debate, which does not bode well). I personally believe that both are clear, no doubt Hall of Famers, and I hope Thomas gets in. But there should be no reason why Bagwell should not share in that honor.
* This article willfully ignores the elephant in the room. This article also thinks that elephant in the room is a big stupid hypocrite, and deserves to be ignored.
The general consensus I'm seeing is that Frank Thomas is likely to be inducted in his first year of eligibility, and will almost certainly receive more votes than his birthday mate. He's already got one more vote, as Bob Sansavere dropped Bagwell in favor of Thomas on his ballot this year. Here's the thing, though. Bagwell was better. There should be no reason to check the box next to Frank Thomas's name without also checking Bagwell's*
Thomas was probably marginally better than Bagwell on offense, but its much closer than it might look at first glance. Thomas ended up with more counting stats, largely because he played three more seasons after Bagwell retired at 37. However, they were very close through age 37. In fact, following their age 37 season, Bagwell has 449 HR compared with Thomas's 448, and led the RBI count 1,529 to 1,465. Of course, Thomas was very good in his age 38 season, and not awful at 39, so of course he gets credit for that. Thomas also has slight leads in all the rate stats, with a .301/.419/.555 line compared with Bagwell's 297/.408/.540. Thomas's career 154 wRC+ ranks 21st all time. Bagwell's 149 ranks 30th. While Thomas was slightly better on offense than Bagwell, both rank among the all time greats.
And that's where it ends with Thomas. Thomas was a first basemen in his MVP years, but very quickly switched to the DH position. He did not start over 100 games at 1st after 1996. In total he was a first baseman in only 971 of the 2322 games he played. And he wasn't exactly a gold glover at first when he was there. In fact, Fangraphs ranks Frank Thomas as the worst defensive first baseman of all time, by a fairly wide margin. He was also poor on the basepaths, accumulating -34.7 runs.
In contrast, Jeff Bagwell was a good fielding first baseman, winning the gold glove in 1994 (and possibly even deserving it), and was a net positive on the basepaths as well. He twice stole 30 bases in a season, and ended up with 202 total, against only 78 caught, for a 72% success rate.
Add it all up, and you get a picture of a one-dimensional offensive force versus a true 5 tool player. WAR agrees, as both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have Bagwell in the lead. A vote for Thomas and not Bagwell is a vote that defense and baserunning do not matter at all (shades of the Trout/Cabrera debate, which does not bode well). I personally believe that both are clear, no doubt Hall of Famers, and I hope Thomas gets in. But there should be no reason why Bagwell should not share in that honor.
* This article willfully ignores the elephant in the room. This article also thinks that elephant in the room is a big stupid hypocrite, and deserves to be ignored.
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Our First 10 Vote Limit Casualty
Bob Sansavere was among the 22% of voters who voted for 10 players last year, including Biggio and Bagwell. You would have to assume that he did not change his mind on whether they belong in the Hall of Fame. But, neither appeared on his ballot this year.
The reason is the arbitrary 10 vote limit. He added Maddux, Thomas, Glavine and Mussina and had to make some cuts. He dropped McGwire, Raines, Biggio and Bagwell. I disagree with these choices. Bagwell was a better first baseman than Thomas and Palmeiro, and deserves to be on Sansavere's ballot, as does Biggio. Especially over Jack Morris. However, I can't really figure out a compelling reason why we are making him choose.
It doesn't matter who you blame for this mess, it is a mess. There are very clearly more than 10 Hall of Famers on this ballot. Only 30 out of 100 position players in history have exceeded 63 bWAR and are not already in the Hall of Fame. Of those, 12 are not eligible, either because they are still active, have not been retired for five years or are Pete Rose. There are 9 of them on this ballot. And that's just position players. Add 5 more pitchers who meet that criteria, out of only 13 not already in, and you get 14 who meet the clear historical precedent of induction. Making someone arbitrarily pair that list down to 10 doesn't make any sense.
The 10 limit wasn't a big deal when the BBWAA was doing their job, and electing qualified players as they came in. But now its forcing people to make a ridiculous choice. No more is the question, is this person a Hall of Famer? Its now, is this person more of a Hall of Famer than this other person. Which other Hall of Famer do I have to cut to make room for this Hall of Famer? Worse, it makes people play politics with their vote. Does Sansavere actually believe Jack Morris was better than Biggio and Bagwell, or has he taken a stance that he feels he can't go back on and is playing to his base?
I believe that at least Maddux will make it and likely Glavine this year. But Biggio has already lost one vote - can he pick that up, plus the extra 39 votes he needed from last year's total, in this crowded ballot Or will there be a possum related "accident" forthcoming? The historical rules for the Hall of Fame have been fluid. There is no reason why they couldn't change the 10 vote limit, or even a more extreme change like requiring 60%. Regardless of the change made, its time for the BBWAA to step up and fix this mess now.
The reason is the arbitrary 10 vote limit. He added Maddux, Thomas, Glavine and Mussina and had to make some cuts. He dropped McGwire, Raines, Biggio and Bagwell. I disagree with these choices. Bagwell was a better first baseman than Thomas and Palmeiro, and deserves to be on Sansavere's ballot, as does Biggio. Especially over Jack Morris. However, I can't really figure out a compelling reason why we are making him choose.
It doesn't matter who you blame for this mess, it is a mess. There are very clearly more than 10 Hall of Famers on this ballot. Only 30 out of 100 position players in history have exceeded 63 bWAR and are not already in the Hall of Fame. Of those, 12 are not eligible, either because they are still active, have not been retired for five years or are Pete Rose. There are 9 of them on this ballot. And that's just position players. Add 5 more pitchers who meet that criteria, out of only 13 not already in, and you get 14 who meet the clear historical precedent of induction. Making someone arbitrarily pair that list down to 10 doesn't make any sense.
The 10 limit wasn't a big deal when the BBWAA was doing their job, and electing qualified players as they came in. But now its forcing people to make a ridiculous choice. No more is the question, is this person a Hall of Famer? Its now, is this person more of a Hall of Famer than this other person. Which other Hall of Famer do I have to cut to make room for this Hall of Famer? Worse, it makes people play politics with their vote. Does Sansavere actually believe Jack Morris was better than Biggio and Bagwell, or has he taken a stance that he feels he can't go back on and is playing to his base?
I believe that at least Maddux will make it and likely Glavine this year. But Biggio has already lost one vote - can he pick that up, plus the extra 39 votes he needed from last year's total, in this crowded ballot Or will there be a possum related "accident" forthcoming? The historical rules for the Hall of Fame have been fluid. There is no reason why they couldn't change the 10 vote limit, or even a more extreme change like requiring 60%. Regardless of the change made, its time for the BBWAA to step up and fix this mess now.
MLB/NPB agree to deal
No, the Astros wouldn't automatically get Tanaka if they pay a $20m posting fee. The Japan Times says that MLB and NPB have agreed to a maximum bid for posted players, but the player would not automatically go to the team with the lowest winning percentage. See the following:
For our purposes, that sucks. We're just assuming that Tanaka wouldn't pick the Astros and maybe that's the safest way to think about it, from an emotional standpoint. But don't rule out the sell job Luhnow & Co. could put on Tanaka. The Astros have money to spend and (presumably) payroll flexibility. That the $20m max bid is now in place, if the Astros were even in on Tanaka to begin with (and I can't think of a reason in which they would not), given that he was expected to command at least as much as Yu Darvish's $51m bid, they now have a whole lot more money to play with.
If multiple clubs willing to pay $20M, Japanese player can negotiate with all of them. Only the signing team will be required to pay $20M.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 5, 2013
For our purposes, that sucks. We're just assuming that Tanaka wouldn't pick the Astros and maybe that's the safest way to think about it, from an emotional standpoint. But don't rule out the sell job Luhnow & Co. could put on Tanaka. The Astros have money to spend and (presumably) payroll flexibility. That the $20m max bid is now in place, if the Astros were even in on Tanaka to begin with (and I can't think of a reason in which they would not), given that he was expected to command at least as much as Yu Darvish's $51m bid, they now have a whole lot more money to play with.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
NPB Posting Update
Via MLBTR, we learn that NPB (Japanese league) officials are planning to accept the new posting rules for Japanese players coming to MLB.
Among those guidelines is a maximum bid of $20m for a posted player. The LA Times' Bill Shaikin wrote this week that the posted player could choose from teams that met the maximum bid. There has been a conflicting report (now endorsed by Jim Bowden) that the player would automatically go to the team with the lowest winning percentage.
There are clearly still some things to be worked out. But if things go the way they look like they've been going for the last 30 minutes, Masahiro Tanaka-to-Houston is a very real possibility.
Update: Dylan Hernandez makes a special note that Rakuten Golden Eagles did not vote for this new system (of course, because they'd lose out on about $30m). Ultimately, they could decide not to post Tanaka, and the story is over. But that wouldn't make any sense, because if NPB accepts the $20m max bid, that's the most they can allow. It makes sense for the other NPB owners to override Rakuten's owner (who is apparently loaded) in order to limit how much revenue comes in to a rival team. But it'll be interesting to see if Rakuten even posts Tanaka in the first place.
There are so many interested parties/potentially pissed off parties that this story is fascinating.
Among those guidelines is a maximum bid of $20m for a posted player. The LA Times' Bill Shaikin wrote this week that the posted player could choose from teams that met the maximum bid. There has been a conflicting report (now endorsed by Jim Bowden) that the player would automatically go to the team with the lowest winning percentage.
There are clearly still some things to be worked out. But if things go the way they look like they've been going for the last 30 minutes, Masahiro Tanaka-to-Houston is a very real possibility.
Update: Dylan Hernandez makes a special note that Rakuten Golden Eagles did not vote for this new system (of course, because they'd lose out on about $30m). Ultimately, they could decide not to post Tanaka, and the story is over. But that wouldn't make any sense, because if NPB accepts the $20m max bid, that's the most they can allow. It makes sense for the other NPB owners to override Rakuten's owner (who is apparently loaded) in order to limit how much revenue comes in to a rival team. But it'll be interesting to see if Rakuten even posts Tanaka in the first place.
There are so many interested parties/potentially pissed off parties that this story is fascinating.
Pitchers & Catchers Report
The Astros tweeted out today that Pitchers, Catchers, and Staff will officially be required to report to Kissimmee by February 15, with the first workout on February 16. Position Players are required to report by February 19 with the first full squad workout on February 20. That's 73 days away.
Oh crap Carlos Rodon is adding a changeup
Here is a nice feature on Carlos Rodon, who better could be the Astros' 1-1 pick next June.
See, the last two summers, Rodon has been playing with USA Baseball, whose assistant coach is Matt Holliday's dad. Anyway, a coach from Ole Miss showed him how to throw a changeup, and how to throw it whenever he wanted, and last summer he didn't give up a run in 17IP.
It helped me get a feel for it. I'm excited to add that to the arsenal this spring. I didn't think it would happen this way, that fast. Obviously, I've been working on it for a while, but had a big breakthrough this summer. It should be a factor.
So with a changeup to go along with a fastball that sits in the high 90s and what Jonathan Mayo calls a "killer slider"...?
Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo have Rodon as the "no-brainer" 1-1. (Though, click the link and you'll see that East Carolina pitcher Jeff Hoffman is mentioned in the 1-1 conversation, and Perfect Game's Frankie Piliere has Hoffman at 1-1, as well)
See, the last two summers, Rodon has been playing with USA Baseball, whose assistant coach is Matt Holliday's dad. Anyway, a coach from Ole Miss showed him how to throw a changeup, and how to throw it whenever he wanted, and last summer he didn't give up a run in 17IP.
It helped me get a feel for it. I'm excited to add that to the arsenal this spring. I didn't think it would happen this way, that fast. Obviously, I've been working on it for a while, but had a big breakthrough this summer. It should be a factor.
So with a changeup to go along with a fastball that sits in the high 90s and what Jonathan Mayo calls a "killer slider"...?
Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo have Rodon as the "no-brainer" 1-1. (Though, click the link and you'll see that East Carolina pitcher Jeff Hoffman is mentioned in the 1-1 conversation, and Perfect Game's Frankie Piliere has Hoffman at 1-1, as well)
Morning After Link Dump
There are now officially too many stories to do a post on each, so let's just lump them all together. Here's what you need to know, 16 hours after the Fowler trade.
*David Schoenfield: The Rockies have no plan
*Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies are betting on Lyles getting better in the future
*Keith Law: The Rockies should have gotten more for Fowler
*Luhnow, on Fowler's numbers:
The way our forecasting models work, we put players into neutral environments and project their performance in a neutral park. We feel pretty good that our projections are accurate and that this player has a tremendous value for us.
*Drellich: The Astros aren't concerned about Fowler's injuries. The Crawfish Boxes agree.
*Drellich: Jordan Lyles does not feel like he was rushed to the Majors (this is something we will actually look at later today)
*David Schoenfield: The Rockies have no plan
*Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies are betting on Lyles getting better in the future
*Keith Law: The Rockies should have gotten more for Fowler
*Luhnow, on Fowler's numbers:
The way our forecasting models work, we put players into neutral environments and project their performance in a neutral park. We feel pretty good that our projections are accurate and that this player has a tremendous value for us.
*Drellich: The Astros aren't concerned about Fowler's injuries. The Crawfish Boxes agree.
*Drellich: Jordan Lyles does not feel like he was rushed to the Majors (this is something we will actually look at later today)
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Luhnow not done yet
Jeff Luhnow isn't done yet! Brian McTaggart tweeted a quote from Luhnow regarding the Astros' pursuit of pitching:
I'm confident we'll have another deal or two done by this time next week.
I'm confident we'll have another deal or two done by this time next week.
Twitter Reactions to the Fowler trade
And now we get to fact-check our sanity, by posting Instant Twitter Reaction to the Barnes/Lyles/Fowler trade (from people we follow on Twitter)...
Nice deal by the #astros - like Jordan Lyles as an innings-eater but Dexter will infuse some much-needed talent into the lineup.
— Marc Hulet (@marchulet) December 3, 2013
I can say with absolute certainty that I don't understand a thing about how the Rockies run their baseball team.
— Wendy Thurm (@hangingsliders) December 3, 2013
@LEXthePEX The #Astros surrendered next to nothing to acquire a 27-year-old OF with a decent bat and elite speed. What's not to like?
— MoiseKapenda Bower (@moisekapenda) December 3, 2013
The Fowler trade is exactly the kind of deal the #Astros need to be making. Fine work on that one. #Rockies
— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) December 3, 2013
Dexter Fowler's 2013 WAR: 2.3
Chris Carter, Brandon Barnes, Robbie Grossman, L.J. Hoes, Justin Maxwell's Combined 2013 WAR: 1.4
#Astros
— Jeff Blogwell (@JeffBlogwell) December 3, 2013
Astros trade Barnes, Lyles for Dexter Fowler
Exactly one hour after I wrote about how the Astros haven't done anything, they did something. The Astros traded outfielder Brandon Barnes and starting pitcher Jordan Lyles to the Rockies for center fielder Dexter Fowler and a player to be named later.
So what about this Dexter Fowler? He'll be 28 by Opening Day 2014, a switch-hitting outfielder how hit .263/.369/.407, and FanGraphs gave him a 2.2 WAR in 2013 (2.0 WAR from Baseball-Reference). Seeing as how Astros' outfielders as a whole hit .242/.294/.367 for a -1.6 WAR, Fowler is clearly an upgrade for the Astros.
Astros' leadoff hitters totaled a .249/.310/.321 slash line. Fowler, as a leadoff hitter, hit .263/.378/.411. Against RHP, Fower hit .237/.349/.392. The Astros, as a whole, hit .238/.288/.366 against RHP. But if we look at Fowler vs. LHP, we see he hit .323/.417/.444; whereas the Astros hit .259/.313/.382.
The big question is how will Fowler hit outside of the lunar surface that is Coors Field? In 2013 he hit .311/.396/.478 with a .358 BABIP in Colorado; that dropped precipitously to .214/.343/.335 on the road, with a .283 BABIP - in line with his .880 career Home OPS and his .694 career Road OPS, and he has a career .189/.338/.270 slash line in 13 games (51 PAs) at Minute Maid Park (too small of a sample size to get anything from).
So obviously, the Astros upgraded their outfield, which should next year feature George Springer in the corner and one of a number of options (L.J. Hoes, Robbie Grossman, to name two options) in the other corner. From a contract standpoint, Fowler will make $7.35m in 2014, will be arbitration-eligible for a third time in 2015, and won't be a free agent until 2016.
The Astros will now be in search of two starting pitchers, to replace Bedard and Lyles. Lyles, the Astros' 38th overall pick in 2008, has had trouble in the Majors: In 377IP (72 appearances, 65 starts) Lyles had a 5.35 ERA/1.45 WHIP, and had the worst season of his young career in 2013.
Are there questions? Sure. Is it an upgrade? Yes, on paper at least (which is all we have to go on, anyway). My biggest concern is how Fowler will play outside of Colorado, but that would be true of any player leaving Colorado. Ultimately, we wanted the Astros to upgrade at the outfield, but not at the long-term expense of the impressive farm system they've built - and it seems the Astros have done just that.
With trading away Barnes - the Astros' 2005 6th Round pick - the player on the 40-Man roster who has been with the organization the longest is now David Martinez, who signed as a 17-year old amateur free agent in 2005.
So what about this Dexter Fowler? He'll be 28 by Opening Day 2014, a switch-hitting outfielder how hit .263/.369/.407, and FanGraphs gave him a 2.2 WAR in 2013 (2.0 WAR from Baseball-Reference). Seeing as how Astros' outfielders as a whole hit .242/.294/.367 for a -1.6 WAR, Fowler is clearly an upgrade for the Astros.
Astros' leadoff hitters totaled a .249/.310/.321 slash line. Fowler, as a leadoff hitter, hit .263/.378/.411. Against RHP, Fower hit .237/.349/.392. The Astros, as a whole, hit .238/.288/.366 against RHP. But if we look at Fowler vs. LHP, we see he hit .323/.417/.444; whereas the Astros hit .259/.313/.382.
The big question is how will Fowler hit outside of the lunar surface that is Coors Field? In 2013 he hit .311/.396/.478 with a .358 BABIP in Colorado; that dropped precipitously to .214/.343/.335 on the road, with a .283 BABIP - in line with his .880 career Home OPS and his .694 career Road OPS, and he has a career .189/.338/.270 slash line in 13 games (51 PAs) at Minute Maid Park (too small of a sample size to get anything from).
So obviously, the Astros upgraded their outfield, which should next year feature George Springer in the corner and one of a number of options (L.J. Hoes, Robbie Grossman, to name two options) in the other corner. From a contract standpoint, Fowler will make $7.35m in 2014, will be arbitration-eligible for a third time in 2015, and won't be a free agent until 2016.
The Astros will now be in search of two starting pitchers, to replace Bedard and Lyles. Lyles, the Astros' 38th overall pick in 2008, has had trouble in the Majors: In 377IP (72 appearances, 65 starts) Lyles had a 5.35 ERA/1.45 WHIP, and had the worst season of his young career in 2013.
Are there questions? Sure. Is it an upgrade? Yes, on paper at least (which is all we have to go on, anyway). My biggest concern is how Fowler will play outside of Colorado, but that would be true of any player leaving Colorado. Ultimately, we wanted the Astros to upgrade at the outfield, but not at the long-term expense of the impressive farm system they've built - and it seems the Astros have done just that.
With trading away Barnes - the Astros' 2005 6th Round pick - the player on the 40-Man roster who has been with the organization the longest is now David Martinez, who signed as a 17-year old amateur free agent in 2005.
What did the A's and Rangers just do?
There's been a lot of hand-wringing about the relative lack of Astros moves, even news, lately. Brian McCann, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and A.J. Pierzynski have already signed with new teams, and some trades are going down as well. The Mariners are getting linked to every single free agent you can think of (including, apparently, Robinson Cano). At least the Angels are just crying into a bucket and making their fans drink their bucket of tears. The trade today between the A's and Rangers was an intra-division trade, one of those that actually makes both teams better. So what happened?
A's receive:
30-year old fast outfielder who is good at defense named Craig Gentry. He hit .280/.392/.409 against lefties in 2013, and also hit .338/.428/.454 in the second half of the season. This season he also hit .421/.450/.474 at Whatever Oakland's Official Baseball Playing Sewer is called. Dave Cameron said that Gentry's baserunning valuations make him virtually equal to Jacoby Ellsbury. As mentioned, Gentry is a good defender, posting a 13.8 rating by FanGraphs, and his UZR rating was 14.2 and 14.3 in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Linking back to the Cameron article, Gentry has the best UZR/150 rating among centerfielders with at least 1,000 innings in the last three years.
26-year old pitcher named Josh Lindblom. He's alright. In 132IP for the Dodgers, Phillies, and Rangers over the last three years, he has a 3.82 ERA (helped by solid stints with the Dodgers), who walks about 10% of the batters he has faced at the ML level. Going back to a bigger stadium ought to help him.
Rangers receive:
24-year old from Arlington Michael Choice. Choice only has nine games of ML experience, but a .290/.376/.482 minor-league slash line. He struggled in the Texas League, but hit .302/.390/.445 for Triple-A Sacramento, with 61HR in 1674 career PAs.
20-year old 2011 4th Round draft pick Chris Bostick. Hit .282/.354/.452 for Low-A Beloit in 2013. My immediate thought of Bostick is that he has the exact same name as a (formerly) prominent car dealer in Nashville who would ride around in a news station's trafficopter, and make terribly annoying commercials like this one:
I also have a very funny, but untellable, story about seeing him leave a bar with a woman who was not Dessie. Spoiler: Chris would later be accused of physically abusing Dessie, whom you see at the end.
Point is, things are happening for a lot of teams. And things are not happening for the Astros, or so it seems. And that's a very important clause there at the end. The Astros, under Luhnow, have run a pretty tight ship in the Leaks department. We don't get to hear much about what the Astros are doing because either (1) they're not saying or (2) no one cares. As much crap as we like to give Gammons and Olney about not talking about the Astros, it's possible that the media has nothing to talk about, because the Astros aren't going to let their offseason play out through them - like they did with Pettitte, Clemens, Beltran, etc.It should be pointed out that, when the Astros seemed hard in on Jose Dariel Abreu, that got plenty of mention.
Because, honestly, would you rather read weekly stories that the Astros are trying hard to get XX free agent and missing, or would you rather read nothing and let The Process remain behind the curtain?
Regardless:
A's receive:
30-year old fast outfielder who is good at defense named Craig Gentry. He hit .280/.392/.409 against lefties in 2013, and also hit .338/.428/.454 in the second half of the season. This season he also hit .421/.450/.474 at Whatever Oakland's Official Baseball Playing Sewer is called. Dave Cameron said that Gentry's baserunning valuations make him virtually equal to Jacoby Ellsbury. As mentioned, Gentry is a good defender, posting a 13.8 rating by FanGraphs, and his UZR rating was 14.2 and 14.3 in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Linking back to the Cameron article, Gentry has the best UZR/150 rating among centerfielders with at least 1,000 innings in the last three years.
26-year old pitcher named Josh Lindblom. He's alright. In 132IP for the Dodgers, Phillies, and Rangers over the last three years, he has a 3.82 ERA (helped by solid stints with the Dodgers), who walks about 10% of the batters he has faced at the ML level. Going back to a bigger stadium ought to help him.
Rangers receive:
24-year old from Arlington Michael Choice. Choice only has nine games of ML experience, but a .290/.376/.482 minor-league slash line. He struggled in the Texas League, but hit .302/.390/.445 for Triple-A Sacramento, with 61HR in 1674 career PAs.
20-year old 2011 4th Round draft pick Chris Bostick. Hit .282/.354/.452 for Low-A Beloit in 2013. My immediate thought of Bostick is that he has the exact same name as a (formerly) prominent car dealer in Nashville who would ride around in a news station's trafficopter, and make terribly annoying commercials like this one:
I also have a very funny, but untellable, story about seeing him leave a bar with a woman who was not Dessie. Spoiler: Chris would later be accused of physically abusing Dessie, whom you see at the end.
Point is, things are happening for a lot of teams. And things are not happening for the Astros, or so it seems. And that's a very important clause there at the end. The Astros, under Luhnow, have run a pretty tight ship in the Leaks department. We don't get to hear much about what the Astros are doing because either (1) they're not saying or (2) no one cares. As much crap as we like to give Gammons and Olney about not talking about the Astros, it's possible that the media has nothing to talk about, because the Astros aren't going to let their offseason play out through them - like they did with Pettitte, Clemens, Beltran, etc.It should be pointed out that, when the Astros seemed hard in on Jose Dariel Abreu, that got plenty of mention.
Because, honestly, would you rather read weekly stories that the Astros are trying hard to get XX free agent and missing, or would you rather read nothing and let The Process remain behind the curtain?
Regardless:
Love Me Non-Tender
So last night was the tender/non-tender deadline, in which teams decide if they want to offer a contract for 2014 to arbitration-eligible players. If a player is non-tendered then they become free agents and can negotiate with any team (and, for our purposes, won't cost a draft pick in 2014). So who are some of the more interesting players not tendered a contract by their former teams?
Scott Atchison
Spent 2013 with the Mets. In 50 games (45.1IP), Atchison allowed 45H/22ER, 28K:12BB, for a 4.37 ERA/1.26 WHIP. But he held RHBs to a .254/.273/.342 line in 2013, in line with his career .257/.293/.376 line against Righties. He'll be 38 in 2014, though, so he's, like, old and stuff. From Texas.
Dylan Axelrod
The 28-year old has spent his entire ML career with the White Sox, and has had a rough go of it. In 2012-13, he's posted 226H/112ER in 179.1IP, with a 1.77 K:BB ratio. As a starter, he has allowed an .878 OPS; as a reliever: .946 OPS, but both are due to elevated BABIPs.
John Axford
Dude was lights-out in 2011, saving an NL-best 46 games (for whatever that's worth) with a 1.95 ERA/1.14 WHIP. In 2012 and 2013, though, he has posted a 4.35 ERA/1.48 WHIP, and performed better for the Cardinals when he was shipped off by the Brewers mid-season in 2013 (1.74 ERA/1.36 WHIP). He held righties to a .282/.331/.430 line in 2013, which is better than the .289/.382/.456 line that lefties slashed. And when you consider that his 2011 year featured a .291 BABIP as opposed to the .346 BABIP he had in 2013, maybe there's still some value in Axford.
Andrew Bailey
Former 2006 6th-Round pick by the A's, he was traded to Boston for (with others and among others) Josh Reddick), he has only thrown 44IP in two years with Boston thanks to a variety of injuries, most recently a torn labrum in 2013. But before that injury, he was posting a 3.77 ERA/1.22 WHIP for the Red Sox, with a 3.25 K:BB ratio. He still walked 39 of the 116 batters he faced. And he might still be hurt. Worth a flier?
Daniel Bard
Not just no. Hell no.
Mitchell Boggs
Luhnow Guy Alert! Former Cardinals reliever averaged a 3.33 ERA/1.35 WHIP between 2009-2012. Then things went to hell for him in 2013 and the Cardinals let him go after he had allowed 21H/18ER, with 11K:15BB in 14.2IP. He threw in nine games for the Rockies, where he allowed 7H/3ER, 5K:5BB in 8.2IP. But for Triple-A Colorado Springs (Rockies) he allowed 33H/15ER, 7K:11BB. So that's not really good, either. Hm. Maybe a Luhnowunion is in the Cards (ha ha ha), but it would clearly need to be on a minor-league contract.
Ronald Belisario
For the Dodgers in 2012-13, Belisario appeared in 145 games (139IP), and allowed a 3.24 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with a 2.07 K:BB ratio. What's more, in 2013, righties only hit .260/.325/.359 on a perfectly normal .306 BABIP, and he only allowed 12 extra-base hits in 202 plate appearances. In the 2nd half of 2013, he held all batters to a .253/.355/.316 line. I like this one.
Tyler Cloyd
He'll be 27 next season, and enjoyed a couple of really good minor-league seasons for the Phillies in 2011 and 2012. In 2013, he allowed a 4.71 ERA/1.34 WHIP for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. For the Phillies in 2013, he started 11 games (13 appearances) and got rocked for a 6.56 ERA/1.79 WHIP.
Chris Coghlan
Man. 2009 saw him post a .321/.390/.460 season for the Marlins, which won him the NL Rookie of the Year award. And then I think he hurt himself celebrating, and he hasn't been able to get it back, with OPSes in 2010-12 (with declining games played in each season) of .718, .664, .394. He played in 70 games for the Marlins in 2013, hitting .256/.318/.354 with a 1st-Half OPS of .742 (141 PAs) and...a 2nd-Half OPS of .532 (73 PAs).
Garrett Jones
WANT, although he fits the profile of some in-house options the Astros already have. In 14 games for the 2013 Pirates, Jones hit .233/.289/.419 with 15HR. He struck out 101 times in 440 PAs. In 2012, Jones hit .274/.317/.516 with 27HR and 28 doubles in 145 games (515 PAs). He should in no way be allowed to face lefties, as there is almost a 250 point difference in his OPS vs. RHP (.826) and LHP (.578). Can play both 1B and RF.
So, if there's anything I can help you with, I'll be right over here.
Scott Atchison
Spent 2013 with the Mets. In 50 games (45.1IP), Atchison allowed 45H/22ER, 28K:12BB, for a 4.37 ERA/1.26 WHIP. But he held RHBs to a .254/.273/.342 line in 2013, in line with his career .257/.293/.376 line against Righties. He'll be 38 in 2014, though, so he's, like, old and stuff. From Texas.
Dylan Axelrod
The 28-year old has spent his entire ML career with the White Sox, and has had a rough go of it. In 2012-13, he's posted 226H/112ER in 179.1IP, with a 1.77 K:BB ratio. As a starter, he has allowed an .878 OPS; as a reliever: .946 OPS, but both are due to elevated BABIPs.
John Axford
Dude was lights-out in 2011, saving an NL-best 46 games (for whatever that's worth) with a 1.95 ERA/1.14 WHIP. In 2012 and 2013, though, he has posted a 4.35 ERA/1.48 WHIP, and performed better for the Cardinals when he was shipped off by the Brewers mid-season in 2013 (1.74 ERA/1.36 WHIP). He held righties to a .282/.331/.430 line in 2013, which is better than the .289/.382/.456 line that lefties slashed. And when you consider that his 2011 year featured a .291 BABIP as opposed to the .346 BABIP he had in 2013, maybe there's still some value in Axford.
Andrew Bailey
Former 2006 6th-Round pick by the A's, he was traded to Boston for (with others and among others) Josh Reddick), he has only thrown 44IP in two years with Boston thanks to a variety of injuries, most recently a torn labrum in 2013. But before that injury, he was posting a 3.77 ERA/1.22 WHIP for the Red Sox, with a 3.25 K:BB ratio. He still walked 39 of the 116 batters he faced. And he might still be hurt. Worth a flier?
Daniel Bard
Not just no. Hell no.
Mitchell Boggs
Luhnow Guy Alert! Former Cardinals reliever averaged a 3.33 ERA/1.35 WHIP between 2009-2012. Then things went to hell for him in 2013 and the Cardinals let him go after he had allowed 21H/18ER, with 11K:15BB in 14.2IP. He threw in nine games for the Rockies, where he allowed 7H/3ER, 5K:5BB in 8.2IP. But for Triple-A Colorado Springs (Rockies) he allowed 33H/15ER, 7K:11BB. So that's not really good, either. Hm. Maybe a Luhnowunion is in the Cards (ha ha ha), but it would clearly need to be on a minor-league contract.
Ronald Belisario
For the Dodgers in 2012-13, Belisario appeared in 145 games (139IP), and allowed a 3.24 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with a 2.07 K:BB ratio. What's more, in 2013, righties only hit .260/.325/.359 on a perfectly normal .306 BABIP, and he only allowed 12 extra-base hits in 202 plate appearances. In the 2nd half of 2013, he held all batters to a .253/.355/.316 line. I like this one.
Tyler Cloyd
He'll be 27 next season, and enjoyed a couple of really good minor-league seasons for the Phillies in 2011 and 2012. In 2013, he allowed a 4.71 ERA/1.34 WHIP for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. For the Phillies in 2013, he started 11 games (13 appearances) and got rocked for a 6.56 ERA/1.79 WHIP.
Chris Coghlan
Man. 2009 saw him post a .321/.390/.460 season for the Marlins, which won him the NL Rookie of the Year award. And then I think he hurt himself celebrating, and he hasn't been able to get it back, with OPSes in 2010-12 (with declining games played in each season) of .718, .664, .394. He played in 70 games for the Marlins in 2013, hitting .256/.318/.354 with a 1st-Half OPS of .742 (141 PAs) and...a 2nd-Half OPS of .532 (73 PAs).
Garrett Jones
WANT, although he fits the profile of some in-house options the Astros already have. In 14 games for the 2013 Pirates, Jones hit .233/.289/.419 with 15HR. He struck out 101 times in 440 PAs. In 2012, Jones hit .274/.317/.516 with 27HR and 28 doubles in 145 games (515 PAs). He should in no way be allowed to face lefties, as there is almost a 250 point difference in his OPS vs. RHP (.826) and LHP (.578). Can play both 1B and RF.
So, if there's anything I can help you with, I'll be right over here.
Monday, December 2, 2013
Astros tender contract to Jason Castro
In The Most Obvious Move of the Off-season, the Astros have tendered a contract to Jason Castro for 2014, but as Evan Drellich notes, it doesn't mean that they're done talking...
Salary arbitration figures do not have to be exchanged until Jan. 17, and potential arbitration hearings are not scheduled before Feb 1. At any point, the Astros and Castro could agree on the dollars on their own, and the likelihood is they will.
They could even sign him to a long-term contract.
Read the article, and marvel at its wonders. As TCB pointed out this evening, why would you ever continue to read Astros County (and TCB, and...) if the beat writer is going to do basically what we would have done?
Salary arbitration figures do not have to be exchanged until Jan. 17, and potential arbitration hearings are not scheduled before Feb 1. At any point, the Astros and Castro could agree on the dollars on their own, and the likelihood is they will.
They could even sign him to a long-term contract.
Read the article, and marvel at its wonders. As TCB pointed out this evening, why would you ever continue to read Astros County (and TCB, and...) if the beat writer is going to do basically what we would have done?
Astros might get Tanaka anyway
This, from Dylan Hernandez:
Now, Sponichi is a Japanese newspaper, so this is just a report, although that the proposal reportedly comes from MLB is interesting. But holy crap this would be huge for the Astros, because they could simply offer the maximum bid for Masahiro Tanaka and simply by default of being God-awful in 2013, automatically win the bid. They'd have to sign him to a contract, so it's not as though it would be a slam-dunk, but if report is true (and it gets approved by everybody involved), then the Rangers wouldn't just be able to swoop in with $900 gajillion and win.
Sponichi: MLB proposing posting-fee limit for Japanese players. If multiple teams submit max bid, player goes to team with worst record.
— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 2, 2013
Now, Sponichi is a Japanese newspaper, so this is just a report, although that the proposal reportedly comes from MLB is interesting. But holy crap this would be huge for the Astros, because they could simply offer the maximum bid for Masahiro Tanaka and simply by default of being God-awful in 2013, automatically win the bid. They'd have to sign him to a contract, so it's not as though it would be a slam-dunk, but if report is true (and it gets approved by everybody involved), then the Rangers wouldn't just be able to swoop in with $900 gajillion and win.
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