Friday Morning Hot Links

Astros lost 3-2 yesterday to Baltimore, taking three out of the four-game series. The Angels were off, the A's and Rangers won, and the Mariners lost. So the Astros' lead is at 5.5 games, and FanGraphs gives them a 49.5% chance of winning the AL West, and a nice 69.7% chance of making the postseason.

Of course the big news of the day is that Tal's Hill will be removed after this season. They had been talking about it since Crane bought the team, and Luhnow even mentioned taking it out in 2013, because anything associated with Drayton is not long for this world.

Artistic renderings (drawings, and fat, are the only objects that are "rendered") show that the redesign will cost $15m and include a "central observation tower," a section of seating, and other things that entertain dim-witted or otherwise occupied baseball fans. Centerfield will now be 409 feet, as opposed to 436 feet, from home plate.

Unfortunately the Astros have not as yet taken into consideration our suggestion of turning Tal's Hill into Crane's Canyon.

*MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince says the Astros need to trade for Cole Hamels.

*Ned Yost asked A.J. Hinch to be a part of his AL All-Star team coaching staff.

*Hinch says McCullers is no longer staying in Houston on a start-to-start basis.

*Bob Klapisch lists the Astros as one of his ten surprises in baseball.

*Evan Drellich has a (possible subscription needed) profile on Will Harris.

*Mac Marshall, a casualty in the Brady Aiken Massacre, says he's okay with the Astros drafting him again. Jacob Nix has not given permission for the Astros to draft him, and Brady Aiken is on such good terms with the Astros that they're not really sure if he signed the paperwork that would allow them to draft Aiken.

*Jeff Luhnow ranked 7th in a Sporting News slideshow ranking the Generals Manager General Managers

*Jeff Sullivan talks about the risk/reward of preseason projections.

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

Get in on this before your annoying officemate...

*Odd story in the Chron about Mike Elias and the draft, which Drellich describes as Elias' sole job. "If it is necessary," Drellich adds later, "Luhnow has the final call on whom the Astros draft. He also handles the negotiations of the highest profile pick in the draft."

*The Astros are one of nine MLB teams to which Cliff Lee could be traded without his consent.

*The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Jeff Gordon sums up former Cardinal exec Jeff Luhnow.

*Scott Boras describes the difference between the Cubs and the Astros.
I deal with (Luhnow), so I don't know about other aspects of the Astros system, but Jeff has a very empirical formula and he has a very defined plan and he is, at this point in his career, he has a very...tight track of what he wants to do. It's a narrow track as far as his intentions. The Cubs have a plan that I think very much includes kind of what Theo's positioning is after his experiences in Boston.

*Mac Marshall on Friday's draft deadline:
We had to wait until 4pm, but once we found out I was just excited (about staying at LSU).

See! It all worked out for everybody (*sobs*)

*Mark Appel had his next scheduled start - originally tonight - pushed back in order to get extra bullpen work. Mike Elias:
As crazy as his numbers look, we're really not that worried about it internally because of what we know about him and what we expect of him.

*Dexter Fowler isn't very close to returning from his intercostal strain.

*"It's kind of weird to know that this is my third year, but I'm just now getting the hang of it."
-Collin McHugh

*"In addition to revealing the Astros as shitty jerks, the Brady Aiken saga has also reminded the world of the existence of one of the NCAA's silliest and most farcical rules..."
-Deadspin

*They're pretty much what we all thought the Astros would be, only we had the wrong team in Texas pegged as the biggest mess in the sport. 
-New York Daily News, on the Rangers

Mac Marshall will not comment on Astros contact

The Baton Rouge Advocate is reporting that Mac Marshall had "no comment" when asked if he had been in contact with the Astros this morning.

Quick Thoughts on Brady Aiken

I really can't do much better than this article on Fangraphs, which does a great job of covering all angles in the ugly Aiken/Astros saga.  So, instead of trying to compete, I thought that I would try and add a little bit.  Most likely not much, but here goes.

Firstly, this is not likely to be a game of chicken - if it is, it is a ridiculous one, and I cannot believe the organisation (or any organisation) would be so stupid as to try something like this.  If this is some kind of deliberate tactic, it is plain dumb.

Secondly, it is clear that Brady Aiken is not currently hurt.  However, the Astros have identified something that worries them for the future.  It seems to be described as an unusually small ulnar collateral ligament which isn't torn.  I am not sure of the implications of an unusually small ligament (if that is in fact the abnormality), but because the new ligament is not grafted on to the old ligament (i.e. not sewn straight in to the existing ligament, using the existing insertions), there cannot be concerns about the size of the ligament and the strength of the insertion itself.  The concerns are more likely to be around the anatomy of the elbow itself, but the exact nature of those concerns are uncertain.

In summary, something that the Astros have seen have caused them to take a second look, and it is more than simply a tear in the UCL.  It has now become a risk-management issue - are the future medical concerns significant enough that the Astros want to alter the deal significantly?  It seems yes.

Thirdly, the Astros are in a tough position here.  They cannot afford to whiff on (another) number 1 pick.  They also cannot reveal the medical information of anyone without their consent, and it is highly unlikely that Mr Aiken would provide said consent, as he may be eyeing a contract with the other 29 teams at some stage in the future.  Providing consent to release medical records would be a colossally dumb thing to do.

So the Astros are in the position where they have to stay silent, and wear whatever the people around this want to throw at them.  This is a position that hospitals and medical practitioners find themselves in all the time.  Disgruntled patients fairly often run to the media, kick up a storm, and the medical people cannot reply publicly in detail, because commenting on the situation will certainly involve revealing private and confidential medical information.  And this release of confidential medical information is never justified (the law simply does not allow this) no matter what the agitating party alleges happened.  A lawsuit would certainly result from this, and this would likely cost the Astros much more than $6 million.

So essentially, Casey Close, Brady Aiken's trainer, his family doctor, his yoga teacher, and the guy that walks their dogs can lob whatever innuendo grenades they want to into the Astros' compound, and there is really nothing they can do to retaliate.  They simply have to wear the public relations disaster.  The simple fact is that the "Astros suck" narratives will stick that little bit easier now.

(People don't really appreciate the shades of grey that are existent here.  Often in medicine, the more you look, the more complicated things get.  It is the opinions of the experts that the various parties are relying upon here, and experts often disagree.  Experts also don't have crystal balls.  Adding an additional wrinkle is that it is likelihood of future injury, not current injury, that is being assessed here.)

Fourthly, I am interested in Casey Close's use of the word "asymptomatic" here.  In medicine, you have signs (abnormal features that are revealed on examination) and symptoms (the things that the patients report as abnormal).  It is clear that Brady Aiken is reportedly asymptomatic - he has no symptoms of elbow difficulties, or at least isn't admitting to the presence of symptoms.  So Close's use of the word asymptomatic is technically correct, but it does not mean that there are no examination findings (or signs) that indicate abnormal anatomy.  Kind of a neat way of wording things to the advantage of your client whilst obscuring the real picture.

Finally, what this really boils down to is one question.  Is the current pick (Brady Aiken with elbow warts and all) a better choice than whomever they can get with the 1-2 pick next year?  This is the opportunity cost equation.  For those pundits out there that say "just sign him, and get Nix and possibly Mac Marshall as well" - if the Astros believe that there is a good risk that Aiken will fall over in the future - then you are actually giving up the second overall pick in the 2015 draft for Nix +/- Marshall lottery tickets.

So the question then becomes: Does Aiken (with risk adjustments) and Nix, with possibly Marshall project better than (likely) two of the top five picks in 2015, plus any slot-bonus shenanigans that you can magic-up in 2015 with a massive slot bonus pool.

Imagine, if you will, the latter scenario.  The Astros have pick number 2 and (say, conservatively) pick number 4, have a draft pool approaching 17-18 million, and potentially the opportunity to throw enough money at two or three Mac Marshall's after the 20th round.  Which is a great situation for a Front Office to be in.

If they are still around for the 2015 draft, that is.  Because the public-relations fallout may mean that Luhnow's tenure becomes unsustainable.

(PS: not suggesting that having a massive draft pool in the 2015 draft is the primary motivation for this situation.)

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

Here's wut u knead 2 no to win your watercooler:

*The Astros have spent just over $97m per All-Star over the past ten years. 

*21st Round pick Mac Marshall tells NOLA.com that he "wants to be at LSU" and has not been in contact with the Astros. 

*Jeff Luhnow denies that the Astros are using Brady Aiken's physical against him as leverage, while Jim Callis wonders if Aiken would command $25-30m were he to be granted free agency by MLB. Luhnow:

We took Brady Aiken with the No. 1 pick in the Draft. That's not a pick you play games with. It's absurd that anyone would think that. 

*MLBPA Executive Director Tony Clark said of the recent Astros/Aiken blowup:

It is disappointing on any number of levels to think what has happened in that situation and what has happened with respect to the integrity of the draft process in general. You can be assured that the manipulation we think that happened in this case is going to lead us to have some conversations.

*In that link, "A Person With Knowledge of the Situation" said that Aiken had a UCL, just "not much."

*Here's a profile on undrafted free agent signee Aaron Vaughn.

*Brett Wallace was traded to Toronto for cash considerations.

The Astros and Brady Aiken

The San Diego Union-Tribune had an article a few days ago (I changed careers, and am studying for a test that I need to pass so as not to make the Changing of Careers a "mistake," so I'm woefully behind on Astros-related things) regarding the Astros and 1-1 overall pick Brady Aiken. The gist of the article? The Astros are screwing over Brady Aiken by trumping up a possible elbow ligament issue, offering him $5m (when the slot is around $7.9m).

Not to go all Oliver Stone here, but the $2.9 million Houston is trying to save on Aiken is almost the exact amount needed to sign two other high school pitchers - fifth-round pick Jacob Nix and 21st-round pick Mac Marshall.

The report is that the Astros had offered $5m to Aiken before selecting him, came up to $6.5m in the days following the draft, and then dropped it back to $5m while Aiken and his family were in town to take a physical and sign a deal. 

5th Round pick Jacob Nix had a deal in place with the Astros for $1.13m over slot, and Mac Marshall's demand was $1.4m over slot (for a 21st-Round pick, anyway). Add that up, the Astros would need to save just a shade over $2.5m in order to sign all three players. 

The U-T's Kirk Kenney succinctly sums it up (one-sentence paragraphs have been reduced to one three-sentence paragraph for sanity purposes): Has Houston so alienated Aiken that he now won't sign at any price? We'll find out. Even if the two sides do end up coming to terms, is this really the way to begin a relationship?

A few things about this piece...

1) This is coming from Aiken's hometown newspaper, so it's not as though it's Jon Heyman or Ken Rosenthal getting bored and deciding it's been a few weeks since they wrote about the Astros, so minus whale write about how disingenuous the Astros are. This can't be dismissed out of hand.

2) It obviously came from Aiken's side of the negotiations. The Law Offices of Jeff Luhnow aren't going to reach out to the San Diego Union-Tribune and plant a story (and if they did, then that's diabolical. Also a little genius, but mainly diabolical.)

3) I'm trying to get past the part of the story where someone would only want to give me $5m instead of $6.5m, but let's try to look at it from Aiken's side. The 3rd overall pick, Carlos Rodon, just signed a deal that was worth a little bit more than what the Astros offered Aiken two picks earlier for an "elbow ligament issue" that may or may not actually be there. If the article is correct, Aiken is still throwing - hardly the actions of a pitcher with an elbow ligament issue. Because if there was concern about his elbow, his camp would shut him down and not let his elbow burst like a jello water balloon before he signs any deal, even if they were upset about the Astros going after further savings. 

4) On the Astros' side, should we fault the Astros for trying to figure out a way to sign three of the top high school pitchers in the country? No. 

5) Do I feel a little turned off by even the possibility that the Astros are trying to game a 17-year old kid out of $1.5m? Yeah, I do. I said this on the Astros Boxes podcast last Wednesday, but if the Astros think Brady Aiken is good enough to be the 1-1 pick overall, and he has an elbow ligament issue, just give him the deal that was apparently in place for $1.4m under slot and be done with it. Don't screw up your draft and further harm the perception of yourself and your team over $1.5m. 

6) Nix and Marshall will take $2.5m to sign, right? Let's say Aiken will still take $6.5m (although with Rodon signing for about that, if there are any hurt feelings, $6.5m might not get it done). That's $9m the Astros need to come up with to sign all three. The Astros had signed their other picks in the top ten rounds for $4,890,500 total. They signed 14th-Round pick Nick Tanielu for $200,000, meaning that they lose $100,000 from their bonus pool, so the Astros are essentially at $4,990,500 in bonuses, leaving $8,371,700 to work with to sign Aiken, Nix, and Marshall. That's $628,300 short of deals for all three. Well, wouldn't you know it, the Astros can exceed their $13,362,200 bonus pool by 0.1-5.0% and not lose future draft picks. What's 5% of their pool? $668,100. They'd have to pay a 75% tax on the overage amount, but they wouldn't hurt their future drafts. Essentially, if the Astros were willing to come across and pay an extra $471,225 in an overage tax, they could feasibly sign all three players.

7) But if the Astros were willing to do that, they wouldn't be in this position in the first place. 

21-616: Mac Marshall

With the first pick of the 21st Round of the 2014 MLB Draft (616th overall) the Astros select LHP Mac Marshall out of Parkview High School in Georgia.

Marshall is a 6'0" 181lb 18-year-old who is ranked #66 in MLB.com's Top 200 draft prospects, and #57 in Baseball America's Top 500. During his senior season, he went 9-1 with a 0.63 ERA and 93 K in 66.1 IP. He is committed to LSU, and on Thursday seemed to indicate that he intends to stick to that commitment:

#OMAHA2015 TIGER NATION LETS GO!!!!!!! Ready to get to work with my boys this summer!! #LSU #TIGAHSSS
— Mac Marshall (@macmarshall19) June 6, 2014

Perfect Game:
Fast arm and up to 94 mph at PG National! Very athletic and showed a potential plus breaking ball.

MLB.com:
At various times, Marshall will show three pitches that can grade as better than average. His fastball often sits at 90-92 mph and has peaked at 94. He shows aptitude for throwing his changeup, an upper-70s offering with good movement. His curveball is his third-best option at this point yet is a plus offering when he throws it with more power in the high 70s. Though Marshall lacks size, he uses a high three-quarters delivery to drive is pitches down in the strike zone. He's athletic and repeats his delivery well.