Sunday, September 10, 2023

Sunday Morning Hot Links

I was unaware the Astros were allowed to win at home. And by God, Cristian Javier was seemingly determined to continue that streak. Anyhow. Astros win. Mariners lose. Rangers and Blue Jays win. Houston is 81-62 and have won one of their last one home games. 

*Updated AL Playoff Picture:

1. Baltimore

2. Houston

3. Minnesota

4. Tampa

5. Seattle

6. Toronto

-

7. Duncanville: +1.5

*AL West Division Odds (Change from yesterday)

FanGraphs:

Houston: 66.1% (+3.4%)

Seattle: 29.1% (-4.9%)

Duncanville: 4.8% (+1.5%)

Baseball-Reference:

Houston: 76.3% (+14.1%)

Seattle: 18.8% (-13.2%)

Duncanville: 4.9% (-0.9%)

NL Wild Card Race:

Philadelphia: +4

Chicago: +1

Arizona: -

Miami: +1

Cincinnati/San Francisco: +2.5

The Game:

*The Astros' seven runs was the most in a home game since beating Boston 7-3 on August 22 - a span of seven games. Games with the following runs scored, Minute Maid Park, 2023 (and their record):

0: 2 (0-2)

1: 13 (0-13)

2: 10 (2-8)

3: 8 (3-5)

4: 5 (4-1) 

5: 7 (4-3)

6: 8 (6-2)

7: 7 (6-1)

8: 3 (3-0)

9: 3 (3-0)

10: 2 (2-0)

11: 2 (2-0)

17: 1 (1-0)

Houston is 5-28 when they score three or fewer runs at Minute Maid Park. Ten of Houston's 11 highest run totals in a game have come on the road in 2023. Also note that they have scored three or fewer runs in 33 of the Astros' 71 home games in 2023. 

*Yordan Alvarez was 2x3 with a walk, 2RBI, and his 26th home run of the season. He has a 17-game on-base streak, and since going 0x4 on August 19 in a 10-3 loss to Seattle, Yordan: .403/.542/.710, 4 doubles / 5 homers, 6K:17BB.

*Kyle Tucker was 1x4 with a 2-run double, his first extra-base hit since September 1. His 101 RBI on the season are six shy of his career-high of 107, set in 2021. Tucker:

It's cool. Obviously, you can't get there unless guys in front of you are getting on base and giving you opportunities. I think it's more of that happening rather than me driving them in. I'm fortunate enough to have a lot of high on-base guys in front of me and they've been doing a good job of that all year.

Tucker needs four home runs and four stolen bases to join Jeff Bagwell as the franchise's only 30HR/30SB/100RBI members.

He has 26 home runs, 32 doubles, and 101 RBI. It's the 25th such season by 13 Astros hitters. Your 25+ HR, 30+ doubles, 100+ RBI Astros:

Jeff Bagwell: 7 (1994, 1996-2001)

Lance Berkman: 4 (2001, 2002, 2004, 2008)

Alex Bregman: 2 (2018-2019)

Moises Alou: 2 (1998, 2001)

Carlos Lee: 2 (2007, 2009)

Kyle Tucker: 1 (2023)

Yordan Alvarez: 1 (2021)

Yuli Gurriel: 1 (2019)

Morgan Ensberg: 1 (2005)

Jeff Kent: 1 (2004)

Richard Hidalgo: 1 (2000)

Carl Everett: 1 (1999)

Glenn Davis: 1 (1986)

*A back-to-back of Brown and Javier continues to hamstring the bullpen, seeing as how neither of them remembers how to get 15+ outs. Urquidy limited the damage last night, but that's 9.2IP thrown by the bullpen this series already. 

*Javier, by outs, 2022:

0 out: .410 OPS-against

1 out: .521 OPS-against

2 outs: .723 OPS-against

Javier, by outs, 2023:

0 out: .728 OPS-against

1 out: .804 OPS-against

2 outs: .731 OPS-against

Javier needed 82 pitches to get 12 outs. He has walked 3+ batters in four straight starts. On June 15 Javier threw six shutout innings against the Nationals - his 14th start of the season.

Javier's 1st 14 starts:80.2IP, 65H/26ER, 76K:19BB, 2.90 ERA / 1.04 WHIP.

Javier's last 13 starts, 60.2IP, 64H/49ER, 56K:35BB, 7.27 ERA / 1.63 WHIP.

Javier has been *this* pitcher for as long as he was *that* pitcher in 2023. 

*Kendall Graveman: 0.2IP, 3H/1ER, 0K:1BB. Graveman has allowed an earned run in back-to-back outings for the first time since Aug 3/5, 2023...his first two games back with the Astros. 

*How susceptible have the Astros been to the run game?

*How Jose Altuve turned back the clock to MVP form.

*How Maldonado and Yainer formed a mentor-mentee relationship.

*You see USMNT 3 - 0 Uzbekistan and think, "Oh good." I see USMNT 3 - 0 Uzbekistan and think "so we scored two goals in stoppage time huh."

What To Watch, September 10:

Texans @ Ravens: 12pm Central

Marlins @ Phillies: 12:05pm 

Mariners @ Rays: 12:10pm 

Royals @ Blue Jays: 12:37pm

Padres @ Astros: 1:10pm

Diamondbacks @ Cubs: 1:20pm

A's @ Rangers: 1:35pm

*A Musical Selection: