Saturday Morning Hot Links

And a good Saturday morning to you. May your college football teams all lose on dumb last-second turnovers.

*Missed this because of Overslept! yesterday morning, but by now you may already know that the Astros extended a Qualifying Offer to Colby Rasmus. So here's what happens next: Rasmus signs the offer for $15.8m and the Astros have their left fielder for 2016. Or Rasmus declines the offer, preferring a long-term contract elsewhere, and the Astros receive a compensation pick in next year's draft. Rasmus has until next Friday to decide. 

The Qualifying Offer idea is notably stupid: it limits the options players have of receiving more money from other teams, but teams hold on to draft picks like Gollum and that ring (I don't know - I've never seen the movie). That said, as Evan Drellich notes, no player has ever accepted a Qualifying Offer so the whole thing could be considered a moo point. Like a cow's opinion, it doesn't matter. It's moo. Why not extend the offer, let Rasmus decline it, and get the extra pick next June? If he accepts it, then we fans get another full season of Colbyana. 

*The Astros were named by MiLB as having the best farm system in 2015. Why? Seven affiliates made the playoffs, two Managers of the Year (Rodney Linares, Josh Bonifay), two batting champions (Jon Kemmer, Bobby Wernes), and AJMF Reed. 

*Ken Davidoff predicts that Jordan Zimmermann will sign a 5yr/$95m deal AND John Lackey will sign a 3yr/$45m deal with Houston.

*MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agent Predictor has Doug Fister going to the Astros on a 1yr/$10m deal but has the Astros at least in-to-some-degree on Yoenis Cespedes, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Wieters, Ian Kennedy, Ben Zobrist (?), and John Lackey. 

*The Nationals didn't make a qualifying offer to pitcher Doug Fister, and Brian McTaggart notes that he could be an Astros target this winter. 

Know Your Enemy: April 18

The Nationals bring their two game win streak (and seven of eight) against Lucas Harrell and the Astros tonight.

On the mound is: 6'2" 220lb RHP Jordan Zimmermann.

*2nd Round pick by the Nationals in 2007.
*He's a Super-Two player, making $2.3m in 2012.
*Zimmermann is only the 2nd player from the University of Wisconsin at Stevens Point to make it to the Majors, and the first since Scott May pitched 9.1IP from 1988 to 1991, with a 10.61 ERA.
*According to Baseball America, Zimmermann was the Nats' best prospect going into the 2009 season.
*And then he needed Tommy John surgery in August 2009. In his second start back from TJ surgery, he became the first National to face 18 batters in 6IP.
*In the 2nd inning against the Marlins on May 6, 2011 Zimmermann struck out three batters on nine pitches.
*In 14IP so far this season, Zimmermann has allowed 9H/2ER, 7K:2BB for a 1.29 ERA/0.79 WHIP.
*39 of his 128 strikes (in 180 pitches) have been looking, while he's generated 14 swinging strikes, 24 grounders, 21 flyballs, and 13 line-drives.
*He's pitched twice against the Astros in his career, with a 7.15 ERA/1.32 WHIP. He last faced them on July 19, 2011, when he allowed 7H/6ER, 5K:0BB in a 7-6 loss.
*Zimmermann only has 12 PAs against current Astros, with Carlos Lee (3x6) and Chris Johnson (1x2) getting the hits.
*He has thrown his fastball 62.2% of the time this season, with a slider coming in second at 21.1%, and a curve 15% of the time.

*Lucas Harrell has never started against the Nationals, but in 5PAs has walked Wilson Ramos and Ryan Zimmerman. He faced them in relief on September 9, 2011, throwing 1.1IP, with an unearned run and three walks.

Recap for G88 - Nationals @ Astros

If I was a Nationals fan, I'd be pissed. And that's the best way to describe G88, and the final game before the All-Star Break, a 5-0 win to finish the "first half" of the season 44-44.

Moehler cruised along for four innings, struggled in the final two+, and then the Astros got a power explosion (similar to a Romance Explosion) from an unlikely source.

Let's start with the pitching:
Moehler: 6.1IP, 7H/0ER, 2K:2BB, 15/27 first-pitch strikes, 26/64 non-contact strikes (20 called:6 swinging)
Arias: 1.1IP, 3H/0ER, 1K:1BB, 4/8 FPS, 6/18 NCS (4c:2s)
Valverde: 1.1IP, 1H/0ER, 1K, 1/5 FPS, 6/14 NCS (5c:1s)

Moehler succeeded again, now 6-5 with a 5.08 ERA, because of the 11:6 groundball to flyball ratio. The pitch count got away from Moehler in the later innings of his outing. Let's take a look:
1st inning: 12
2nd inning: 14
3rd inning: 13
4th inning: 6
5th inning: 21
6th inning: 31
7th inning: 6

But let's face it, the Nationals lost this game more than the Astros won it. The Nationals' LOBs were unreal, leaving 13 on base, and going 1x11 with RISP, and leaving the bases loaded in the 6th and 7th innings in what was at that point a 1-0 Astros lead.

Offensively, there was nothing doing. Jordan Zimmermann had it working for a good six innings, getting outs and keeping his pitch count efficient. The Astros got the first run in the game when Bourn reached on a throwing error in the first, ultimately scoring on Tejada's single one batter later. Then that was it until the 7th inning. It was 11 batters before the Astros got another hit - in the 4th on Lee's double. And so it remained until the 7th. Zimmermann hit Blum to lead off the inning, and Pence singled to center. Pudge struck out swinging (on an odd AB where he wasn't able to pull a bunt attempt back in time to get on base...because the ball hit him.) No matter, Matsui hit a ball 360+ feet to right-center and put the game out of reach. Berkman did score on a Tyler Clippard balk in the bottom of the 8th to put the game at its final score.

Man of the Match: I want to give it to Moehler pretty bad, but this one's going to Kaz Matsui, who came up huge with the three-run jack.

Goat of the Game: Pudge. 0x4 with 3Ks, including an AB where he got hit - and didn't get on base, because he couldn't pull the bat back.