It's BAAAAAAaaaaaaAAAACK! Sorry for the hiatus and the off schedule post, but I couldn't WAIT! I was given a very generous gift from the podcast "State of the Texans" (on twitter, @sottexans) and now that I'm able to do these in the comfort of my own for the first time, I'd like to announce that I will be doing these twice a week now on my days off, which changes from week to week, so just keep your eyes peeled!
Anyway! Slow down, relax, forget about your real world responsibilities for a minute or two and enjoy a round of "Spot the Differences"!
Lastly, I have included less differences until I get my snap back. Can you find all 6? - Leigh
Flick and I got our signals crossed, leading to the lack of posting over the last few days. We're sorry. But we're not as sorry as the Astros are right now. Houston dropped the 2nd game of the Cleveland series 6-3. They're 3-6 in their last nine games. This afternoon they try to avoid tying a season-high three-game losing streak.
*Hinch: We couldn't keep them in the yard. They did a good job of getting pitches to hit and doing damage. We put a lot of pressure on them early. They didn't put a lot of pressure on us but they delivered with homers.
*Collin McHugh did fine, except for three pitches which ended up over the fence. 5.2IP, 4H/3ER, 9K:2BB.
Collin McHugh, 2018: 6HR allowed in 72.1IP
Collin McHugh, 2019: 6HR allowed in 32.0IP.
McHugh: The results speak for themselves. You give up homers, it's hard to win games...It's really frustrating because they were all after innings we put up some runs. Those shutdown innings are really important as a pitcher, especially a starting pitcher, to try to throw up another zero and let our guys bang like they've been doing all season.
*Josh James gave up a 2-run home run that turned a 4-3 Cleveland Spiders lead into a 6-3 lead. So far in 2019 he has thrown 13.2IP, 12H/12ER, 20K:9BB, 4HR, for a 7.90 ERA / 1.54 WHIP. In April he has thrown 10.2IP, 11H/12ER, 15K:8BB for a 10.13 ERA / 1.78 WHIP. Don't really need to see any more of Josh James for a while. Maybe let him explore north Austin.
*The Astros were 2x9 w/RISP and left eleven men on base.
Opportunities last night:
Bottom 1st: Bregman on 3rd, Brantley on 2nd, 2 out. Correa strikeout.
Bottom 2nd: Bases loaded, 2 out. Brantley groundout.
Bottom 4th: Springer on 3rd, Altuve on 1st, 1 out. Bregman strikeout, Brantley flyout.
Bottom 7th: Brantley on 3rd, Correa on 1st, 2 out. Reddick lineout.
Astros with the bases empty, 2019: .301 (1st in MLB, next-best is Atlanta, at .281)
Astros w/RISP, 2019: .240 (21st in MLB)
*Jose Altuve was 0x2 but drew three walks in a game for the 6th time in his career. He did twice in four days, on June 23 and June 26, 2018.
*A.J. Hinch remains committed to aggressive baserunning, despite so-so results. Hinch: Results have been just OK. We've made a lot of outs on the bases. I think the mindset to be aggressive has been really good. I'm happy with that. We can flip that with a couple of good results that would make everybody feel a little bit better about it. Houston is tied for 2nd-most in MLB with nine caught stealing.
*USA Today's Bob Nightengale decided to take up the cause of the afflicted Addison Russell, and whether or not he deserves a second (Ed. Note: Third) chance. Might I remind you of this statement, from Addison Russell's ex-wife: He slammed me into concrete...like, football tackled me. His friend was there and Carlie was there and they watched it. I was down, he was on top of me, yelling in my ear, saying, 'You like doing this to me. You push my buttons. Do you like it when I get like this? Do you like doing this? You like pushing me to the point where I have to act like this.
Bob Nightengale's puff piece can go to hell.
*Someone once told me to write what you like to read. I have 500 pages of notes for an eventual book about Andrew Jackson's 1833 tour of New England so, as a fan of the Bizarre Non-Fiction genre, I'm looking forward to reading this book.
*Esquire: The Inside Story of JFK Jr's George Magazine.
It's BAAAAAAaaaaaaAAAACK! Sorry for the hiatus and the off schedule post, but I couldn't WAIT! I was given a very generous gift from the podcast "State of the Texans" (on twitter, @sottexans) and please bear with me as I learn how to use a laptop, and even harder, photoshop on a laptop. I am so glad to be able to make these again and hope you enjoy.
Anyway! Slow down, relax, forget about your real world responsibilities for a minute or two and enjoy a round of "Spot the Differences"!
Lastly, I have included less differences until I get my snap back. Can you find all 6? - Leigh
Houston lost last night in the Return of Marwin. The Astros are 13-9, 1.5 games behind Seattle and 0.5 ahead of Arlington. Houston has lost four of its last five games since the ten-game winning streak. They're 6-1 at home.
*The Astros have given up 29 runs in their last three games. A quick check of Baseball-Reference indicates that this is not ideal. From June 3-6, 2018 Houston allowed 21 runs. You have to go back to September 9-10, 2017 to find a three-game stretch (Sept 9 was a doubleheader) in which the Astros allowed more runs, with 31.
*Brad Peacock gave up three runs in the first two innings, but settled down for a 5IP, 6H/3ER, 2K:3BB performance. Hinch: It's a few games in a row for us where we really haven't gotten into the game very easily. I was happy with how (Peacock) responded to it and got through five innings.
Reddick: I think if we get past the point of the first where we're not down, I think we have a good shot going into it. This thing will pass.
*Houston has allowed 19 runs, and an MLB-leading 18ER, in the 1st inning in 2019. Opponents are hitting .308, also an MLB-worst, in the 1st inning. They are now 4-5 when beginning the 2nd inning behind.
*It was 3-1 Minnesota in the top of the 6th when Josh James decided to allow 4H/4R (3ER), 3K:1BB.
*It was 7-5 Minnesota when Chris Devenski gave up a 2-run home run, giving him a 2H/2ER, 0K:1BB outing. He does not get to be called "The Dragon" for the time being.
*Eight of the Twins' nine runs came with two outs.
*Jason Castro hit his first home run since March 31, 2018. It's his second home run against the Astros, making Brad Peacock and Tony Sipp the sole members of a very not-special club.
*Last night was the 11th time this season the Astros have recorded 10+ hits. They're 7-4 in those games.
*Michael Brantley was 2x5 with an RBI and two runs scored. He has an 8-game hitting streak and nine multi-hit games on the year.
*Carlos Correa hit the 85th home run of his career. It was his 9th career 3-run homer. Correa has home runs on consecutive days for the first time since May 31-June 1, 2018.
*Josh Reddick was 3x4. He's hitting .365/.403/.476, and has three 3-hit games in his last five. Reddick has made a point since Spring Training of trying to go the other way with the ball. All three of his hits were to opposite field. Reddick: It's too cliche, but I'm not trying to do too much. I'm just going up there and using what they're going to give me, and I had a pretty significant hole over there on the left side today. If they keep pitching away, I'm going to try to keep going that way until they come in. It's a matter of just riding that wave as long as I can because eventually it will come crashing down and I've got to get back up on that board and go again.
*The Astros were 2x8 w/RISP. They're now 42x187 (.225) with runners in scoring position.
*Yordan Alvarez was the first minor-league player to 10HR with his 9th inning blast as Round Rock beat Memphis 9-4. Taylor Jones hit two home runs, and Jack Mayfield added another shot. Alvarez is hitting .339/.451/.915 with 11K:11BB. Not bad, I guess. He has 18 home runs in 62 games at Triple-A. He's 21 years old.
*Man, the rules changed pretty quickly around here. Rangers manager Chris Woodward - who came to Arlington from the Dodgers - is celebrating how well his team has been stealing signs. Woodward: You know what you are holding. Now, if you had a chance to know what both cards the dealer has are, wouldn't that increase your chances of success? And if you knew (what) the dealer had with those two cards before you even placed your bet, wouldn't that increase your wager?
I'm old enough to remember when the Astros were blitzed in the media for having a guy near a bullpen.
*Emma Baccillieri: Pirates pitcher Nick Burdi's injury is a cruel reminder of how fleeting success is for baseball players.
Opening Day starts with promise. And that promise surely brought more happiness to Tyler White than any other player on the Astros 25-man roster. After years of working his way up from a 33th round draft pick and three years of going up and down between Fresno and Houston, White had secured a spot in the Opening Day starting lineup as the DH.
White had earned the DH spot with a strong second half of 2018, when he slashed .287/.350/.551 with 10 home runs in 197 PAs. His walk-off homer against the the As on August 29th not only helped the Astros stay ahead of the pesky Athletics, but also led to to the iconic image of the 2018 Astros season.
As the 2019 season began, there was every reason for an Astros fan to be optimistic about White. Various projection systems projected him to have a wRC+ of between 110 and 122. Not an All-Star level, but a contributing level on a team packed with offensive stars.
The reality of Tyler White's 2019 season, so far, has not met the promise of opening day. White is slashing .212/.333/.242 with a 71 wRC+. That mean White is batting 71% of league average...and that's not even accounting for the fact that he plays the easiest defensive position--DH.
As White's production has decline, so has his playing time. He has started only 9 of the team's 21 games so far this season, and only 7 at his position on opening day--DH. The other potential DH candidate on the roster has done just as poorly. Tony Kemp has slashed .156/.270/.250.
As a result, AJ Hinch has tended to rotate the DH spot around the regulars. George Springer has served as DH in 5 (!) games, Michael Brantley for 3, and Jose Altuve once (Kemp has started at DH 4 times). With the team at the beginning of a stretch of 26 games in 27 days, expect Hinch to more liberally use the DH as a way to get his regulars some time off of their feet.
But the big question that White's (and Kemp's) horrid start leaves for the Astros is should they keep these two on the roster, or should they try to find another alternative at DH. Complicating this question is that both White and Kemp are out of minor league option years. The front office cannot send either one down to the minors without first exposing them to waivers, and both White and Kemp are almost certain to be claimed by at least one of the other 29 MLB teams. And while both White and Kemp are valuable enough to occupy one of the 750 active major league roster spots in MLB, neither is so valuable that they would be likely to bring back anything more than a Grade C prospect in a trade.
White and Kemp also serve as valuable depth pieces for the Astros. The team has been blessed by good injury luck so far in 2019. Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman have both had to miss a couple of games with minor injuries, but both quickly returned to form. As a result, the Astros have avoided using the disabled list for a position player so far this season. But that will not last. Somebody will get injured, and there will be PAs available.
I think the best solution to the slow start of Tyler White is to give him time to see if he can turn it around. His track record indicates that he is a much better hitter than he has shown so far, and the season is only about 13% complete. Players tend to move toward their projections over time. And while that means we are extremely unlikely to get the 144 wRC+ version of White was saw last season, we are likely to get the 112 to 120 wRC+ version that was projected for this year.
It is worth noting that despite the struggles of White (and Kemp) the team is playing and batting well. The team has a .612 winning percentage, which would produce 100 wins over the course of 162 games. The Astros have 10 players with a wRC+ of 100 or greater. The Astros lead the American League in batting average and on base percentage, and are third in slugging and OPS. In short, there is no reason to panic right now (we're not the Red Sox).
Obviously, patience does not have to last all season. The Astros have two excellent hitting prospects at Round Rock in the persons of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. The promotion of either could lead to an improvement at DH--Alvarez would probably step directly into the DH role while Tucker would push Michael Brantley to DH. The Astros also have the prospect capital to acquire a power hitter to replace White. There are potential solutions if White (or Kemp) continue to struggle.
But for now, the best course is to see if Tyler White can get back the power stroke he used so effectively in 2018. White has maintained his eye at the plate, and has a walk rate of 15.4%. If he can cut down on the strikeouts (a 33.0% rate this year compared to 20.7% last year, he can hopefully get back to form. That is the best hope for Astros fans...for now.
So the thing is - Yesterday's game was - Okay, the thing about yesterday's game is that. Houston lost 11-10 yesterday after being down 10-1. Collin McHugh was terrible. The Astros were terrible in that they made Shelby Miller look like a serviceable pitcher, who got his first win since April 2017. Houston is 13-8, 7-8 on the road. After 21 games they've played as many games in Arlington as they have in Houston. A seven-game homestand starts tonight. Fourteen of their next 20 games are at home.
It was the 40th time the Astros have hit five home runs in a game. They're now 35-5 in those games. The last time they hit 5HR and lost was September 16, 2009 in a 6-5 loss to Cincinnati. It was the first time since August 6, 2013 that the Astros scored 10+ runs in a game and lost.
Houston was 1-2 in 1-run games on the last road trip. For the 2nd straight series at Arlington, the Astros won the first game and then dropped the next two. Houston went 1-3 against Arlington in Verlander/Cole starts. That's dumb.
*For the second consecutive game an Astros starting pitcher had the worst start of their career. Saturday it was Gerrit Cole, then yesterday it was Collin McHugh's turn. McHugh: 3.1IP, 8H/10R (9ER), 1K:1BB, 2HR, 1HBP. McHugh: It's really frustrating. Our team, we've got a lot of guys who can do a lot of damage, especially in hitting conditions like today. As a starting pitcher, your job has to be to keep it close and keep them in the game, and it got out of hand really early. I wasn't able to stop the bleeding in a couple of innings.
Hinch: At the end of the day you either win or you lose, but I think it's come to be expected that we're going to keep fighting, so I'm proud of our guys for that.
*There were a lot of ways the Astros could have won yesterday, but Joey Gallo's sky-high bloop was particularly stupid.
*Yordan Alvarez hit his 9th home run yesterday, and is hitting .315/.439/.870 in his first 16 games. The rest of the Round Rock Express have 23 home runs combined.
*Houston opens a series with the Minnesota Marwins tonight. Minnesota is 12-7, leading the AL Central by one game over Cleveland. They're coming off a sweep of the Orioles. Former Astros Great Marin Gonzalez is hitting .204/.271/.315, Jason Castro is hitting .200/.360/.300.
Well I guess a disaster is fine every now and then. Makes life seem real. Been kicked in the balls plenty over the years, what's one more shot to the nuts. Gerrit Cole was freaking terrible and the VapeShops won. The Astros are 13-7. They have won 11 of their last 13 games.
Every year in which the Astros have been over .500 in the first 20 games in the last decade, they have made the playoffs.
*Yeah but they're 2-4 against Arlington. This is completely unacceptable. The Rangers' 5-run 1st inning was the most runs the Astros have allowed in a single inning, much less the 1st.
*Arlington is 3-1 in four starts vs. Verlander and Cole thus far in 2019.
*Gerrit Cole got blooped and bombed to death, there's no way around it. Cole's line: 4.1IP, 9H/8ER, 8K:3BB. He had allowed 9ER in four starts coming into last night's game. The last time he allowed 8ER in a start was...never in the Majors. If you care, he allowed 8ER on May 19, 2013 when he allowed 8ER against Pawtucket while at Triple-A. His 13 outs were the fewest he recorded in a start with Houston.
Hinch: It just looked like he was trying to grunt his way through his outing and get to the next pitch, and he was jumping off the rubber a little bit. He was going to out-stuff them. He reached deep into his tank of 98, 99 early, and when he's doing that, he's trying to get out of that big inning. All in all, just a bad night.
It's not surprising, but the Word is that Cole was tipping his pitches. Cole: I felt like they were on a lot of stuff in the first inning, especially their takes and some of the pitches that they chose to swing at. I think they were maybe a little bit a step ahead of me in terms of being able to identify what pitch I was throwing.
*Reymin Guduan had a nice bounceback appearance with 2IP, 0H/0ER, 3K:0BB. He was rewarded with a trip to the Hill Country in favor of Framber Valdez.
*The Astros made Adrian Sampson look like An Actual Decent Pitcher: 4.1IP, 7H/2ER, 3K:1BB. They just couldn't get a big hit. Adrian Sampson, 2019:
vs. Houston: 10.1IP, 11H/3ER, 6K:3BB.
vs. Not-Houston: 7.2IP, 12H/8ER, 6K:4BB.
The Rangers are 6-5 in 2019 when their starting pitcher can't get 15 outs. Yeah that's sustainable over 162 games. Baseball is stupid.
*It didn't help that the Astros were 2x13 w/RISP, with GIDPs from Bregman and Correa.
*George Springer hit a 2-run home run in the 6th. It's his 127th career home run, his 20th home run against Arlington, tied with the Mariners for the most against one opponent.
*Michael Brantley has 2+ hits in eight of his 20 games as an Astro. He has a 12-game on-base streak. He has 2+ hits in six of those games.
*Jose Altuve was 0x5. It's the 38th 0x5 of his career. He had six 0x5s in 2018. It's his 16th 0x5 with no strikeouts in a game, his first since May 3, 2017.
*Max Stassi finally got his first hit of 2019 with his 1st home run of the season, and threw a batter out. Good job, Max Stassi, I guess. It's the 12th home run of his career, and nine of them have been on the road.
*In the 1st game of a doubleheader, Round Rock beat Memphis 11-6 thanks to back-to-back Homerz from Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez in the 7th, and Taylor Jones and Drew Ferguson in the 5th.
*From David Nuno: How the Hurts family is a Channelview Institution.
*85,000 Yemeni children have died of starvation. The government has banned all Yemeni travelers from coming to the United States, and have denied Green Cards for Yemini family members of U.S citizens.
*Seattle Times: What an Olympic medalist, homeless in Seattle, wants you to know.
*The Atlantic: How an 18th-century philosopher helped solve my mid-life crisis.
