Saturday Morning Hot Links

It's almost the end of 2018 and you'll never be able to rationally explain to me how the Astros didn't win the World Series again. Onward!

*Stop me if you've heard this before: Nelson Cruz was down to the Astros, Rays, and Twins before deciding to accept the Twins' offer of $14m for 2019 with a $12m club option for 2020 or a $300,000 buyout. That is ridiculously low for a guy who hit .278/.347/.529 (134 OPS+) from 2008-2018, with 37+ HR in each of the last five years. And I'm extremely curious about the Astros' offer and why the Twins' offer was the best. Houston's last player with 37 Home Runs in a season was Former Astros Great Chris Carter (who carried the Astros to a playoff spot in 2015), when he hit exactly 37 in 2014. 

*The Astros lead the way for Jim Callis' Most-Improved Farm Systems.

*Baseball America named Astros Legend Brent Strom as their MLB Coach of the Year. 

*Josh James made SI writer Jon Tayler's list of 2019 Breakout Stars.

*Kyle Tucker was named to MLB.com's All-MiLB team. Josh James and Myles Straw were honorably mentioned.

*Philadelphia is interested in Dallas Keuchel, but not for Keuchel's (or Boras') asking price of five years minimum.

*God.

Just ran into Scott Boras at Houston airport as we were each headed to different gates. Asked if he was switching planes or was in town. He gave a very cryptic answer insinuating he was IN Houston. Hmmmm, Bryce to the Astros?

— Pedro Gomez (@pedrogomezESPN) December 29, 2018

*Yasmani Grandal declined what was apparently a 4yr/$60m deal from the Mets, for some reason.

*This 88-year old's reaction to getting to go to Spring Training is pretty great.

*James Crane is ready to help out with $13.5m + $1m in annual fees to renovate Memorial Park Golf Course in what I *think* is an effort to bring the Houston Open back within the city limits. I don't know, I'm not a Golfer.

*Thrillist: The myth of Mom & Pop restaurants.

*A Musical Selection:



You can follow the Hot Links Music playlist on Spotify, if you're so inclined but it's whatever.

Friday Morning Hot Links

I'm not entirely sure how accurate this is, but this might be the first ever Astros County blog post to ever have been posted from our nation's capital. I just woke up from a pleasant afternoon nap that eradicated this wicked headache that I was battling all afternoon, so for the first time today I feel physically ready to break the news to you that the Astros did not sign Nelson Cruz. Yayyyyyy..

But don't worry folks, not are the Hot Links are this dreadfully sad. I got some good ones to bring to you too!

While we're talking about Astros offseason moves, Climbing Tal's Hill published a piece grading the Astros moves so far. Since there aren't a whole lot of Hot Links again today, I might as well also write an actual opinion piece which is something I think I was brought onto the team in the first place for (please also keep in mind I am a biased idiot).

Robinson Chirinos - Chirinos is the old man, no-average, high power, strong-armed catcher we were hoping 2018 Brian McCann would end up being. While I don't mind the signing, I hope it's more of a fallback plan in case the Max Stassi Experiment flops in 2019 because he is the main catcher that I want to see. I think I got officially burnt out on nausea-inducing BABIP scores in 2015 so when I see Chirinos' stat line, it makes me sad. Nevertheless, I don't mind the signing and I personally don't mind riding with Stassi instead of trading for Realmuto or shelling out cash for a Grandal. Grade: B

Aledmys Diaz - This one sucks a little bit because I don't even want to think about having to replace my favorite Houston Astro of all time, but I have to. This trade pretty much solidified that Houston's Hero is not coming back. However, we got Diaz for what I understand to be a steal. I'm no prospect man, but the guy we traded has a career minor league ERA of 4.23, so I don't mind this deal at all either. His consistent statistical numbers are eerily similar to Marwin's and he can play multiple positions, which takes away the pain a little bit and it makes me honestly okay with what has transpired this offseason. Although when I saw him in Toronto this summer he ONLY went 1-3 so he's gonna have to do a lot more to firmly woo this old codger over to his side. Marwin if you're reading this please come back. Grade: B+

Michael Brantley - As yes, The Big One. Our cornerstone move of the 2018-2019 offseason. We all know what this guy is all about. Can't stay healthy but when he does he is an All-Star. Decided not to spend money and take a risk with the new outfielder. All that. I like the signing. Again, this is a signing I like. I don't like his unhealthy past per se but looking at it from a wider scope the good free agent outfielders save Bryce Harper are quite injury-riddled (Brantley, Pollock, CarGo etc). I mean, you could have gone McCutchen in theory but are you going to pay Cutch 3 yrs. 50 Mil or Brantley for 2-32? This signing also makes me think of the Charlie Morton contract. "but he can't stay healthy" "but he's in the back end of his career!" they said. Obviously these two situations are completely independent of each other, but I have decided to completely disregard trades for injury purposes thanks to the fact he might, you know, stay healthy. This is an upgrade, and he is better than Kemp, Tucker (for now), and Marisnick. It isn't flashy, but it should get the job done and ease Tucker into the position. Grade: A   

Packaging all three moves into one overarching theme, it seems as if he are replacing players and not necessarily upgrading the positions but maintaining them. We replaced McCann with McCann 2 (didn't get better), we replaced Marwin with Marwin 2 (didn't get better), and we replaced Marwin/Kemp/Jake with Michael Brantley (better). Will this be good enough? Honestly, I have no idea. It was in 2017 and not in 2018. Only time will tell and it isn't over yet. Still plenty of time for moves.

Oh yeah, Hot Links.

Hey speaking of the outfield situation, CTH also did a thing about that!

FanGraphs dropped their 2019 Steamer projections for the Houston Astros baseball club.

Is Dallas Keuchel the starting pitcher signing to make?

Or is it a man by the name of Marcus Stroman?

I would have never thought we would see the day, but MULTIPLE bloggers like Tony Sipp and want them on their teams?

HOF BALLOT UPDATE: There are 8 players who have put on a Houston Astros uniform on the ballot this year. 0 of them are in with 29% reporting but Clemens is currently sitting at a 73.7%.

If you are looking for some deep reading and like The Future, @AstrosFuture has composed many Astros MiLB reviews available for your viewing pleasure. I'll start you off on the starting pitchers but the rest can be found in the article.

Here it is. The annual "somebody won the lottery but some idiot is going to forget to cash it in" article.

THIS MAN HAS STREAKED AT 568 EVENTS IN HIS LIFE AND STILL IS ALLOWED TO WATCH SPORTS IN STADIUMS.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

Let's get right to it.

*Brian McTaggart has an inbox in which he addresses the rotation, catching situation, throws some shade at Nelson Cruz, etc.

*Carlos Correa donated his piano to Texas Children's Hospital. (This sounds like a very similar situation I encountered when I was encouraged by my lovely wife to donate my favorite chair to the curb.)

*Shoutout to Mark Appel and Brady Aiken, both former Astros 1-1 picks who each managed to make MLB.com's Worst First-Round MLB Draft Picks of the Decade list.

*This Rangers blogger says, given what has happened over the last decade, he would rather be a Rangers fan than an Astros fan:
So, I guess the question is...would you rather have been an Astros' fan or a Rangers' fan over the last decade? Personally and objectively, I side with the Rangers. Give me consistent success over eventual success. Give me two World Series appearances over one. 

I will simply leave that there.

*Lookout Landing looks at the "truthiness" of GM Jerry Dipoto.

*That zany Bregs is at it again: tipping fast-food workers $1200 and whatnot.

*We don't deserve Jacob DeGrom. And by "we" I of course mean "The Mets"

Answer ?s like "How does Jacob deGrom's 2018 compare to Johan Santana's 2008" in the Play Index https://t.co/Cs7uWVjJbd pic.twitter.com/7eOXugEnC9

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) December 27, 2018

*Jim McVay runs the Outback Bowl. It's an exhibition game between two college football teams, the players in which are not paid. I am a casual observer of college football. I went to grad school at OU, so that's where my preference lies (I still owe them $5,700 so it only seems right to hope that their football team will win a Natty and maybe then they'll forgive my student loans), but I do not get crazy about OU football. I bargained that right away when I promised God I would never get upset about a football game again if it meant the Astros could win the World Series. Nervous about Saturday, though.

That said, I only remember one Outback Bowl - 2005 - because Drew Tate did this:



And Drew Tate went to Baytown Lee, where my wife and brothers-in-law went to school. One brother-in-law (what's up, J-Rock?) was an outstanding O-Lineman for Lee and unfortunately succumbed to the Astros County Curse and lost the one playoff game of theirs I was able to attend. It was an Upset. Anyway, Jared should have gone to a D1 school but the coaches were morally suspect.

Anyhow, Jim McVay, the guy that runs the Outback Bowl? He makes $1 million. Oh wait, that wasn't an Outback Bowl game, that was a Capitol One Bowl. Hahaha I didn't even remember the bowl game correctly. Oh well, J-Rock should still have gone D1. And Jim McVay ain't need $1m a year to throw a party.

*I just came across this incredible Texas Monthly article from 2014 about Charles Moore, who set himself on fire in Grand Saline, Texas.

*Outside Magazine: Life and Death on El Capitan.

*BBC: A Frozen Graveyard - The Sad Tales of Antarctica's Deaths.

(Ed. Note: I'm good, I feel fine, there's no mortality issues I'm dealing with - that I know of - the previous three links were just interesting).

*My side team, Leeds United, scored on an own goal and then two goals in injury time to beat Blackburn Rovers and win their second straight Championship game by a 3-2 score and with at least one goal in injury time. And they're leading the Championship. I HAVE PROUD.

*A Musical Selection from Harper Simon. You may have heard of his father Paul:

2018 Things I Had Forgotten

So I was super-bored today (finished the book I was reading, took a nap. Can't decide what to read next). And made a Spotify playlist of all the songs I had put on the Hot Links since I've been doing that kind of thing, round about the end of September.

This required going back through said Hot Links to find all the songs, which made me then read a bunch of the Hot Links from the 2018 season. So on this, this Christmas Night, here are some nuggets - mostly cool, some cringe-worthy - about the 2018 season.

*The Astros set a two-year wins record, going 204-120 in 2017-18, and eclipsing the 1998-99 teams' 199-125 record.

*2017-to-2018 win improvement:
Oakland: +22
Seattle: +11
Houston: +2
Anaheim: 0
Arlington: -11

*The Astros endured an L5 stretch twice in 2018, longest winless streak of the season. But set a record for the best 30-game stretch in franchise history, going 24-6. In there was a 12-game win streak from June 6-18. They enjoyed a W10 road trip.

*The Astros went through a stretch from July 4 - August 20 in which they lost 16 of 21 division games.

*Houston went 7-0 against the White Sox, the first time going undefeated against a team in a season with more than four games since they won all six against Philadelphia in 2005, which gave the Astros a one-game edge over the Phillies in the 2005 NL Wild Card race.

*The Astros set a Major-League record by hitting a home run in 14 straight postseason games, dating back to 2017.

*George Springer, with 40, is the Astros' all-time postseason hits leader, knocking out Craig Biggio's 39. Springer got his 40 in 32 games. Biggio got his 39 hits in 40 postseason games.

*I had forgotten about the Astros fan who said he'd buy his entire section beer if Springer homered, then Springer did, and then he did.

*AL West playoff wins since the Astros joined the AL:
-Houston: 18
-Arlington: 2
-Oakland: 2
-Seattle: 0
-Anaheim: 0

*Former Dodgers Great Yasiel Puig guaranteed a Dodgers World Series victory in 2018.

*The Astros went 57-24 on the road, a franchise record set all the way back in 2017, when they went 53-28.

*Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were the first right-handed teammates to strike out 250+ batters each in a season since 1900.

*26.7% of Verlander's season Earned Runs came in three starts against Tampa, Detroit, and Seattle.

*Verlander set the franchise mark for lowest WHIP in a season, at 0.90.

*Gerrit Cole was the 12th-fastest pitcher in MLB history to record 1000 career strikeouts. He set a franchise record for most strikeouts before the All-Star Break. He was the 6th-fastest pitcher to 100 strikeouts in a season in MLB history.

*Astros pitchers struck out 10+ batters 96 times in the regular season.

*Nine pitchers started a game for the Astros in 2018, the lowest number of starters since 2011.

*By the end of the season the only Astros pitcher who had thrown more than four innings with an ERA over 4.00 was Chris Devenski (who finished with a 4.18 ERA).

*Ryan Pressly finished the regular season with an 0.77 ERA for the Astros, and he's not a free agent until 2020.

*Dallas Keuchel's opponents, 1st inning, 2018: .331/.381/.486. 1st inning career OPS by season:
2012: .798
2013: .509
2014: .606
2015: .656
2016: .825
2017: .547
2018: .867

*Tony Sipp, vs LHBs, 2018: .191/.263/.294
  Tony Sipp, vs LHBs, 2017: .247/.304/.548

*Alex Bregman, May 2-end of regular season: .295/.400/.575, 67K:76BB, 43 2B, 30 HR. His 51 doubles are 3rd in franchise history in a single season. From August 19-September 7 (79 PAs) Alex Bregman struck out three times.

*Joe West's infamous call for fan interference wasn't the first time the umpire crew conspired with Replay to screw the Astros. It happened on July 25 against Colorado.

*Alex Bregman also had a 52-game road on-base streak, breaking Jeff Bagwell's franchise record.

*The Astros posted a .754 team OPS in 2018, 69 points lower than 2017 but still 10th all-time in franchise history.

*Houston was held to five or fewer hits 40 times in the 2018 regular season, 24 times more than 2017's 16 occurrences.

*Jose Altuve had the longest home-hitting streak in franchise history.

*On June 12-13 Evan Gattis became the first Astro with back-to-back 5RBI games.

*Myles Straw hit a minor-league home run once per 610 PAs. Kyle Tucker hit a minor-league home run once per 28.51 PAs. Career MLB Home Runs:
Myles Straw: 1
Kyle Tucker: 0

*The Astros won 21 games in September, the 2nd-most in a calendar month in franchise history, and one shy of the May 2017 record.

*Houston was shutout ten times in 2018. They allowed two or fewer runs in five of them. Eight of those shutouts were at home.

*Josh Reddick's 17 home runs were the 3rd-highest season total for him, most since 2015 (20), and 15 short of his career high, set in 2012.

*Yuli Gurriel had 7RBI in a September 21 win over Anaheim, most for an Astro in a game since J.R. Towles' legendary 8RBI game. Gurriel's 22 GIDPs were 3rd-most in baseball (behind Manny Machado's 26 and Miguel Rojas' 23).

*Carlos Correa, MLB-debut until going on the DL (6/25/18): .285/.363/.495.
Carlos Correa, After "returning" from the DL (8/10/18): .180/.261/.256.

*Tyler White post-July 29 call-up to the end of the regular season (197 PAs): .287/.350/.551, 10HR.

*Astros' 2018 1st Round pick Seth Beer hit .304/.389/.496 in his first professional season, across three levels.

*Houston's 2017 2nd Round pick Corbin Martin, minor-league career: 154.2IP, 108H/42ER, 165K:44BB, 2.44 ERA / 0.98 WHIP, eight HR allowed.

*Yordan Alvarez, acquired in the (snicker) Josh Fields (belly-laugh) trade with the Dodgers, minor-league career (827 PAs): .301/.381/.507, 176K:96BB.

Christmas Eve Hot Links

Christmas is fast approaching but and many people are off of work but somebody's gotta keep the Hot Links coming! Consider it a Christmas gift from me to you but also keep in mind it's basically the equivalent of somebody giving you a $10 Papa John's gift card so don't get too excited.

/The national media is writing very sweet things about the Astros so who REALLY won 2018??

/Chin Music Baseball breaks down the most likely landing spots for Dallas Keuchel..and the Astros aren't completely out of the mix yet. Not likely for sure, but not impossible.

/Marwin news? Still none.

/Not sure if this has been linked on this site or not but an excellent article about what the Astros may do with Josh Reddick now that Brantley is here is up on the Crawfish Boxes.

/Alex Bregman is really enjoying the offseason like any rich guy playing a sport as a job should. The full link to his latest (30 minute) Youtube masterpiece can be found here.

/It's back baby! A Bud Norris reun-i mean Britton to Houston rumors! Although this is likely still a pipe dream as Luhnow looks like he's staying internal for replacements (Bud Norris is an actual free agent by the way but bringing him back was 100% a joke please do not post backlash in the comments section).

/Sounds like Altuve's recovery is going extremely well!

/It may not get here in time for Christmas but if your gift recipient doesn't mind a late present or two, may I recommend you some Houston Astros themed crossword puzzle books or trivia games? The reviews are in!

/Doctors are seeing a rise in a form of carpel tunnel called "selfie wrist". Technology baby yeah!

/The first ever armed robbery occurred in the North Pole. Nobody was hurt and the guy was apprehended, but it was still a memorable day for the island, who is known for having more polar bears on it than people.

I will not see you guys on Wednesday as I will be on the travelling to Maryland most of the day to have a second Christmas so I will not be posting Hot Links until Friday at the earliest so with that being said, enjoy your Xmas and I will see you guys again sometime eventually!

From Where Will the Innings Come?

Note: I pitched this to The Athletic, they passed, and so it's here. 

---

The 2018 Astros’ rotation was charmed. In addition to enjoying a rotation of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, and Lance McCullers, Jr., they were all, for the most part, healthy. A.J. Hinch didn’t have to pencil in a sixth starter until the 126th game of the season, when Brad Peacock got the start against Seattle on August 21.

Houston needed 499.2 innings out of their bullpen in 2018, and if that sounds low to you, you’re absolutely right. Here are 2018’s bullpens, organized by the number of innings pitched:

Team	Bullpen Innings, 2018	Bullpen fWAR
Cleveland	463.2	0.4
Houston	499.2	8.1
Colorado	520.1	3.9
Washington	528.2	0.4
Arizona	541.1	2.0
Kansas City	542.2	-2.2
Chicago White Sox	545.1	4.3
New York Mets	546.1	-0.6
Pittsburgh	546.2	3.5
Atlanta	557.0	3.0
Seattle	557.1	5.1
St. Louis	565.2	0.5
Philadelphia	569.1	4.1
San Francisco	570.2	5.0
Detroit	579.2	2.1
Los Angeles Dodgers	581.1	3.1
Texas	585.0	3.9
Boston	587.1	4.9
Chicago Cubs	588.1	4.0
Toronto	594.1	2.3
New York Yankees	594.2	9.7
Baltimore	597.1	2.1
Cincinnati	602.1	1.7
Miami	606.1	-2.1
Minnesota	610.1	3.0
Milwaukee	614.0	7.0
Anaheim	632.0	2.2
San Diego	635.0	8.7
Oakland	641.1	5.7
Tampa Bay	824.1	5.6

You read that right: Tampa Bay’s bullpen got 549 more outs than the 2nd-most used bullpen in the Majors. And it’s not as though more innings from your bullpen disqualifies you from the postseason: three of the ten most-used bullpens in 2018 made the playoffs: Oakland, Milwaukee, and New York, while the Rays won 90 games in a division with two 100-game winners.

That said, given the departures and injuries among the Astros’ pitching staff this offseason, there are some holes to fill, or at least some fingers to place firmly in the dam for a while. The Astros will not have Charlie Morton in the rotation, as CFM officially signed his 2yr/$30m deal with Tampa this week. Dallas Keuchel is on the market and, though a return to Houston is certainly within the realm of possibility, the most-wise course of action may be to consider him gone. Lance McCullers is in the process of recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be out until 2019.

Those three pitchers threw exactly 500 innings in 2018. It is very easy to see a scenario in which Collin McHugh rejoins the rotation after getting squeezed out by Gerrit Cole in 2018. McHugh threw 72.1IP in 2018 in the bullpen after being held by injuries to 63.1IP in 2017. From 2014-2016, however, McHugh threw 543IP – including a 203.2IP campaign in a breakout 2015 season.

IF (All Caps intended) McHugh can throw 200IP, that still leaves 300IP unaccounted for in the rotation. Assuming that the Astros’ rotation retreats from throwing the 2^nd-most innings in MLB in 2018, that leaves more innings for the bullpen.

Jake Kaplan projected the Astros’ bullpen last week following Joe Smith’s injury and says the bullpen, as currently constructed, looks as follows: Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Hector Rondon, Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, Josh James or Framber Valdez, and the ever-popular Player To Be Named Later.

The above list’s relievers threw a combined 280.1IP. Granted, there are some caveats   Roberto Osuna’s 38IP were impacted by his 75-game suspension for assaulting his girlfriend. Chris Devenski threw 2IP between July 27 and September 4, missing 33 games with a hamstring injury.

It’s conceivable that both could add 30IP to their workload in 2018 – injuries and future crimes notwithstanding. Let’s do a theoretical exercise and assume they do exactly that, bringing the above list’s workload to 340.1IP. That leaves 159 best-case scenario innings to whoever loses between Josh James and Framber Valdez, and two other options should, as Kaplan previously noted, A.J. Hinch goes with his customary eight-man bullpen.

Will it be Cionel Perez? With Tony Sipp’s presumed departure, Perez would – under this thought exercise – be the only lefty in the Astros’ entire 13-man pitching staff. Someone else could provide some internal bullpen help: Dean Deetz, for instance, who tested positive for a substance with a lot of vowels that doesn’t sound like it’s terribly helpful. Could he step in? What about a free agent?

MLBTradeRumors dot com projects the Astros to sign LHP Zach Britton to a 3yr/$33m deal. Britton has long been rumored as an Astros’ target, so might the Astros actually get their man? Britton, who threw 65+ IP in each of his 2014-16 campaigns has been held to a total of 78 innings (with 39 walks) over the last two years. Want to go full-circle? Zach Britton underwent surgery for a ruptured Achilles about this time last year (the same as Joe Smith) and made his season debut on June 12, and he had scoreless outings in 14 of his 16 games before getting traded to the Yankees.

Joe Smith’s recovery could go well enough to follow Britton’s timeline. Britton was in his Age 30 season in 2018, while Smith was in his Age 34 season. Things hurt more when you’re 34 as opposed to 30. But maybe not for, like, professional athletes.

A timeline that involves Smith throwing 30 innings as opposed to 50-60 would leave 120-ish innings to two relievers. Maybe that’s a low enough number for the Astros to introduce Triple-A starters Rogelio Armenteros (added to the 40-Man Roster in November specifically to avoid him being selected in the Rule 5 draft), or even newly-recovered-from-Tommy John surgery Brady Rodgers, the Astros’ 2012 3^rd Round pick.

Ultimately, how the Astros determine who takes the innings they’ve lost could determine if they make it back to the ALCS for a third straight season. And with the last contracted year of Verlander and Cole beginning in a few months, they may decide to strike.