Wednesday, February 18, 2015

2015 Astros - Projected

This is the third time I've tried this. 2012 was horribly wrong, as my projection of 74 wins was just a little above the actual record of 55-107. After taking a year off, I tried again last season and did a little better. I said the team would go 72-90, just two games away from their eventual 70-92 finish. So maybe I'm getting better. Or maybe I just got lucky. Either way, let's try again for 2015.

The same general disclaimer from last year applies: "Now, anytime you put together projections the goal isn't necessarily to be perfect. You're looking for a likely outcome for each player, yes, but my goal isn't so much each player but the team as a whole. Some guys are going to have unexpected breakouts and some are going to deposit feces on their mattress, but the idea is that you can project a reasonable baseline of expectations for the team as a whole."

Last year I was over on both the runs scored and runs allowed. I think what happened was that the overall league offensive environment has been slipping the last few years, from an average of 701 runs scored per team in 2012 to just 659 last season. I was about 60 runs too high for both offense and defense, so that's the story I'm going to stick with.

Here's how I think things could shake out for 2015. Again, my goal is more to get an idea of the team as a whole, not necessarily get the individual players perfect.

So there you have it. Looks like the numbers are predicting an even 81-81 record. What do you think?


Terence said...

I applaud the effort, comprehensive projects like this are hard. Is this algorithm generated or is each one a personal projection? I'm trying to understand the logic that has Altuve and Springer with the exact same number of PA.

Anonymous said...

Why do you hate all the Astros pitchers?

But, good on you for having a stab.

Anonymous said...

Ouch...the numbers don't look so great for our hitters. Looks like a ton of solo home runs and strikeouts this year.

The Batguy said...

To Terence:

As I mentioned, I'm not looking to nail down each individual player. But to get playing time, I figured the average position gets about 680 plate appearances. I have Altuve getting 85% of the playing time at 2B and Springer getting 75% in RF and 10 % in CF.

Rough, round numbers like that are good enough for me.

Bru said...

Gotta say, I expect some regression from Altuve, but those numbers look low. A 50 hit drop?

And of course he's still the only one that'll crack .300, sigh.

I do think we can hit 81 wins though.