Wednesday, February 18, 2015

2015 Astros - Projected

This is the third time I've tried this. 2012 was horribly wrong, as my projection of 74 wins was just a little above the actual record of 55-107. After taking a year off, I tried again last season and did a little better. I said the team would go 72-90, just two games away from their eventual 70-92 finish. So maybe I'm getting better. Or maybe I just got lucky. Either way, let's try again for 2015.

The same general disclaimer from last year applies: "Now, anytime you put together projections the goal isn't necessarily to be perfect. You're looking for a likely outcome for each player, yes, but my goal isn't so much each player but the team as a whole. Some guys are going to have unexpected breakouts and some are going to deposit feces on their mattress, but the idea is that you can project a reasonable baseline of expectations for the team as a whole."

Last year I was over on both the runs scored and runs allowed. I think what happened was that the overall league offensive environment has been slipping the last few years, from an average of 701 runs scored per team in 2012 to just 659 last season. I was about 60 runs too high for both offense and defense, so that's the story I'm going to stick with.

Here's how I think things could shake out for 2015. Again, my goal is more to get an idea of the team as a whole, not necessarily get the individual players perfect.

So there you have it. Looks like the numbers are predicting an even 81-81 record. What do you think?