Monday Morning Hot Links

Well Shawn Dubin did pretty much exactly what the Astros needed him to do, Chas McCormick delivered the Big Hit, Altuve homered. Astros win 5-3 to improve to 46-38, four games back, winners of five of their last seven games. The Astros have an opportunity today to end a weekend at South Euless in which three rookies started having picked up two games. At worst, the Astros will have kept the Ramgers lead at five games through a tough weekend. 

*Dusty:

This club, they like to win. And they know how to win. No matter who we put out there, we expect them to do the job, even though they might not do as good a job as the people they're replacing. But just do what you're capable of doing and do what it takes to help us win.

That is the backhandiest of compliments.

*Shawn Dubin: 4IP, 3H/1ER, 3K:2BB.

Dusty: 

That puts us in position to win the series and leave three games out. We battled today. Our bullpen did a great job. Dubin did an outstanding job. We took him far...we were thinking three, and he went four.

*Bullpen: 5IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:0BB.

*I'm not really sure why Future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy pulled Andrew Heaney after 5IP and 85 pitches, having allowed just three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts...but I'm glad he did.

*Ramgers Bullpen: 4IP, 7H/5ER, 4K:2BB.

*Jose Abreu was 3x5 with a double. Since June 1 (26 games), Abreu is hitting .298/.321/.510. He has a nine-game on-base streak.

*Jose Altuve hit his 198th career home run in the top of the 9th inning. Since coming back from resting a bruised heel on June 28, Altuve is hitting .316/.458/.842. Four of his six hits in that span have been for extra-bases, and he's been on base 11 times in 19 PAs. He needs two more home runs to be the 5th Astro with 200 career home runs, and needs 26 homers to pass Jimmy Wynn for 4th all-time in franchise history.

*Chas McCormick was 2x4 with a two-out bases-clearing triple to break the game open off of Josh Sbarro Sborz in the 8th inning. It was McCormick's first triple since August 13, 2022, and his first 3RBI game since April 9. On June 9, McCormick was hitting .227/.315/.427 after going 0x6 with 4Ks. Since then, he's hitting .333/.400/.533. He should probably play every day.

McCormick:

I'm just happy to contribute and help the team win. I wanted to come through there with two outs, wanted to be aggressive and ready to hit. Thankfully, we got a win today because that was huge. And if we can get a win tomorrow, that will be even bigger.

*Yainer Diaz was 0x4 with runners in scoring position.

Diaz, bases empty, 2023: 85 PAs, .354/.377/.671.

Diaz, someone on, 2023: 76 PAs, .169/.171/.254.

Diaz, with RISP, 2023: 43 PAs, .132/.140/.158.

There are 295 hitters in MLB with a minimum of 40 PAs w/RISP, and Diaz's .132 BA ranks 292nd.

*Alex Bregman had his 3rd 0x5 day of the season. 

*Framber Valdez and Yordan Alvarez are your 2023 Astros All-Stars. Yordan will attend, not play. Framber might start the game.

*Yordan took BP in the cage yesterday.

*Jeremy Pena missed his third straight game after sleeping wrong. Wasn't it about this time that we all lit up Carlos Correa? 

*The Nationals signed Former Astros Great Daniel Mengden to a minor-league contract while the Rockies called up Former Astros Great Fernando Abad.

*BBC: Will Texas become too hot for humans?

*Today is a hallowed day at ACHQ: It's July 3 aka Dependence Day. The day that me and my household celebrate the last day of America's dependence on England. So grab a Bounty and a Harp, add this to your Spotify playlists and spend the next nine and a half hours with me listening to the finest Britpop. 

*A Musical Selection:

'Rona-Free Hot Links, Vol. 3

*I don't really want to lead off with this but Jim Crane says MLB "explicitly exonerated" him in their investigation, for the expressed purpose of leaving him out of any lawsuits that proceed against the team he owns in the event that the Astros, do in fact, continued to get sued.

*Evan Gattis said he had retired from baseball, and you should absolutely listen to the podcast where he announced it.

*So did 2014 2nd Round pick A.J. Reed. Chandler Rome:
The Astros did not summon Reed for a September call-up in 2017 or 2018. His weight and conditioning were often problems. Frustration grew visible. Houston designated him for assignment last July to clear a spot for pitcher Jose Urquidy on the 40-Man roster.

As a junior at Kentucky, Reed hit .462/.588/.962 (read that again) and had a 2.83 ERA in the same season. That's insane. That 2014 Draft was...hoo-boy. Picks through the 1st 10 Rounds:

Brady Aiken, Game 5 Hero and Current Toronto Great Derek Fisher, A.J. Reed, Current Mets Great J.D. Davis, Current Oakland Gret Daniel Mengden, Jacob Nix, Brock Dykxhoorn, Derick Velasquez, Bobby Boyd, Bryan Radziewski, Jay Gause.

It turns out that the prize of the Astros' 2014 draft was either Josh Big Flames James, the 1006th selection of the draft, who has put up a 0.8 fWAR, or Ramon Laureano, who has posted 5.9 fWAR...for Oakland, because the Astros traded him to Oakland for Brandon Bailey, who will likely be in Triple-A this year.

*Click this MLB.com link to see how Ryan Pressly has the nastiest 10" in baseball.

*Baseball-Reference is using OOTP21 to simulate the 2020 season. The Astros are 2-4.



*Minor-Leaguers will get $400/week until at least May 31, plus medical benefits. It's literally the least a $10 Billion industry can do.

*GQ: Inside the poisoning of a Russian double-agent.

*The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal: Victor Martinez's audacious dream is within sight.

*I have attended precisely one Leeds United game in person. It was this one, a Champions League game against Lazio, with my dad. You can see how I'd be hooked. There's a "What Happened To Leeds United" Astros County post coming in the next few days.



*I highly recommend you to watch Icarus, which is available on Netflix. It's one of the best documentaries I've ever seen.

*This is one of my favorite books of all-time.

*"Cocaine, Speed, and Gallons of Jack Daniel's." The last Rock n Roll Superstars were...Korn?

*Check out this three-part series from ProPublica called "Blood Will Tell." It will take you all afternoon. Then, when you're done with that, read this follow-up, which broke Tuesday.

*Learn something:



*A Musical Selection:



*Another Musical Selection:

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*FanGraphs posted their 2020 standings projection on the Depth Charts page. They're slated for a .567 win% - 3rd-highest in MLB - though at 92 wins. Using this, here's how the AL West shakes out:

Houston: 92-70
Oakland: 84-78
Anaheim: 79-83
Arlington: 75-87
Seattle: 63-99

*Dusty Baker wants the Astros to be more aggressive on the basepaths. Baker:
I'm an aggressive person. Baserunning is probably one of the things that I think is really missing in baseball. Aggressive baserunning (and) smart baserunning. You can't just be aggressive. You have to be smart about it. Baserunning can create a lot of mistakes on the opposition. You're going to get thrown out every once in a while. But if you don't try anything, then that's very boring baseball, and you don't put pressure on the opposition.

The 2019 Astros stole 67 bases in 2019, 17th in MLB and 8th in the AL. They were thrown out 27 times for a success rate of (71.3%).

*Jake Kaplan put out his Opening Day Roster Projection 3.0, which includes Austin Pruitt and Jared Hughes.

*ZiPS Projections are live at FanGraphs! Some notable projections:
-Altuve: .305 BA, Yordan: .288 BA, Bregman: .287 BA.
-Bregman: 7.1 fWAR. Springer: 4.6 fWAR; Altuve: 4.5 fWAR; Kyle Tucker: 3.3 fWAR
-Correa projected at 109 games played.
-Verlander: 4.7 fWAR, Greinke: 2.8 fWAR...and that's pretty much it. ZiPS isn't so high on the Astros' rotation.

*One in a Million: An oral history of Zack Greinke's time with the Royals.

*Garrett Stubbs is going to try his hand at 2B, with the help of Matt Chapman and another Catcher-Turned-Second Baseman named Craig Biggio.

*Aledmys Diaz won his arbitration case and will make $2.6m in 2020.

*Blake Taylor, the return from the Mets for Jake Marisnick, was blown away by the information the Astros gave him. Taylor:
They show you everything. They say, 'This is how much hop your fastball has, this is how much your slider has.' The information is there and they're hands-on and work with you. Everything is specialized to you. It's not cookie-cutter....I hope to make an impact on this team and if I break with the team that's awesome, and if I don't, I'm going to work my ass off to get up there.

In that link we also find that Dusty would like Yordan to play more outfield, but it's up to Yordan's knees.

*Check out What The Heck Bobby's interview with Former Astros Farmhand Daniel Minor. It's super-insightful information about playing in a crowded system (even if the team had lost 100 games forever), playing in Mexico and Venezuela, and what it was like to play in the Atlantic League when they were doing a dry-run on the crazy new rules.

Sign-Stealing Stuff

*I spent a few days working on a timeline regarding the whole sign-stealing thing. It's 5000 words and goes back to 2006. Have fun.

*Josh Reddick told reporters:
At some point, you have to move on and not give a s**t. We're going to go out there and win and shut everybody up.

*Mike Fiers talked to The Athletic. When asked if he was worried about his safety in coming to Houston, Fiers:
No. Everyone's crazy - everyone can get crazy at a certain point if they don't like something that you do. Listen...everyone's mad at (the Astros). There are teams that are mad. It doesn't matter what it is, extra protection, I mean, what are you going to do? There's not much you can do.

*Buster Olney thinks Rob Manfred should censure the 2017 Astros.

*Alden Gonzalez: Why players are so willing to sound off on the Astros.

*The Yankees are pretty much always down to rip the Astros, even with Gerrit Cole in the room.

*Joe Girardi what is you doing:

Judge: *sad because Altuve “stole” MVP from him in 2017*

Judge’s manager in 2017: pic.twitter.com/kVNmDSuPt4

— Off-SZN (@AstrosOptimism2) February 20, 2020

Other Stuff

*Eno Sarris ranked the MLB stadiums by the quality and accessibility of their available craft beer. (Minute Maid ranked 12th).

*Space, Time, and Psychedelics with Tame Impala's Kevin Parker

*Elvis Costello's "Get Happy!!" at 40.

*A Musical Selection:

Friday Morning Hot Links

Man, I'm ready for Flick to get back. The Astros made one worse pitch than Oakland did, and lost 7-6. I'm told the game was Weird. I could not stay awake for the whole thing. The Astros are 78-44, 8.5 up on Oakland. They have lost three in a row, and four of five. But they won eight straight before that. It happens.

*I'm having a hard time this morning with only complaining about home runs when the other team hits them.

*There were eleven extra-base hits in last night's game. Ten of them left the yard. Hinch:
They hit the most important one at the right time. We hit some big ones. It was a little bit of 2019 home run derby with the ball flying out of the ballpark everywhere. 

*Astros pitchers have allowed 7+ runs in three of their last five games.

*Aaron Sanchez threw 5.1IP, 7H/6ER, 3K:2BB, 4HR. It's the first time this season an Astros starting pitcher has allowed 4HR, and the second time in his career Sanchez has done it (June 12, 2016).

*It's the 6th time in franchise history the Astros have hit five home runs and lost. It's the 2nd time that's happened this season.

*Five of the Astros' seven hits were home runs. As a team in August the Astros are hitting .310/.385/.610. They're 9-4 in August, with a team .995 OPS.

*Michael Brantley was 3x4 with two home runs and a double. Brantley's last nine games dating back to August 3: .500/.537/868. It was the 7th 2HR game of his career.

*Carlos Correa got two jacks himself and became the youngest Astro to hit 100 career home runs, and it's not even close. He's 24 years and 328 days old. Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken, Jr. are the only other shortstops in MLB history to hit 100 home runs before turning 25. Correa:
I called my dad and told him, and he was crying. Obviously, it was a lot of work put in to get where we are right now. It was an emotional moment. It's very special. 

Astros' all-time home run leaders, by shortstops:
Correa: 100
Marwin: 76
Adam Everett: 35
Dickie Thon: 33
Craig Reynolds: 32

Correa is hitting .290/.366/.579 for a currently-career high OPS of .945. Shut up about Correa. He needs six more home runs to set a career-high, at 25.

*Alex Bregman hit his 29th home run of the season. In August he's hitting .439/.521/.902

*Yordan Alvarez has one hit in his last 18 Plate Appearances. Brett Wallace lookin ass boiiiiiiii.

*On May 19 Josh Reddick went 2x2 with two doubles and 2BB to put his OPS at .860. In the 69 games since, he's hitting .229/.259/.339. Reddick last hit a home run on June 28 - a span of 30 starts. He went 44 games without a home run in 2018, let's see if he can break that streak. Chandler Rome understatedly writes that Reddick is having some trouble shaking off his slump. Hinch:
Reddick has obviously gone through a very slow time. There's a lot of issues that come with that. There's reasons beyond pitch selection, how hard he swings, swing path, all that stuff. There's not one thing that you can pinpoint exactly what's going on. Otherwise, we would have corrected it quite a few at-bats ago.

Dude just looks lost.

*George Springer snapped a 7-game hitting streak with an 0x3, BB night.

*Oakland's Matt Chapman has two straight 2HR games. Chapman:
That was pretty cool. I've never seen the ball carry like that here. It was like we were playing on a normal park. That was a rarity. I've never seen this park play like that. Usually it's pretty cold here and the ball doesn't travel, but that was nice. 

More Chapman:
It feels like that kind of game, a playoff game. That's a really good team we respect and want to beat. This is the Astros' division until somebody knocks them off. To take the first game of the series like that is huge.

Manfred must have made sure that the Coliseum got the extra-jumpy balls for this division matchup.

Bregman, 2019: .277/.405/.554, 29HR, 152 OPS+
Chapman, 2019: .260/.343/.533, 29 HR, 130 OPS+

*Ralph Bowden reports that Gerrit Cole "should be good to go" next week. And the Astros are confident that Cole will only miss this weekend's start. Hinch:
He's going to rest for the next couple of days. He may do a little throwing while we're here in Oakland and then gear towards a bullpen eventually. A lot of therapy, a lot of conversation, a lot of making sure that he doesn't do anything to irritate his hammy, and get him back on the hill eventually.

*The Astros could start Armenteros or Framber on Saturday. Or they could have another bullpen game, since that worked out so well on Tuesday. It just kind of depends.

*Chandler Rome took a look into Ryan Pressly's outing on Wednesday night and notes that he looked as good as any point since returning from the IL. One bad pitch, man.

*Remember that Colorado game where Bregman couldn't come up with a Daniel Murphy liner, and it was ruled a hit? Yesterday it was changed back to an error, so Greinke's line is now officially 6IP, 6H/5R (2ER). Greinke has now given up 4ER in 12IP as an Astro.

*FanGraphs' Craig Edwards notes that Jose Altuve is returning to health and, as a result, MVP form.

*Andrew Simon asks: Is Yordan is having the best start to a career ever?

*The Astros are trying to become the first team in baseball history to not intentionally walk a batter. The previous low for intentional walks by a team in a season was four, set by the...2018 Astros.

*Two Astros Legends - Lance McCullers and Brent Strom - threw off flat ground yesterday.

*Baseball America published their 2019 Best Tools winners. Click to see where Justin Verlander, Justin Verlander, and Justin Verlander rank on the overall winners, and where Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Gerrit Cole, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Ryan Pressly, and A.J. Hinch fall.

*Check out the MLBTR Stock Watch on Wade Miley.

*Some Minor League transactions:
-A.J. Lee (2019 - 34th Round) and C.J. Stubbs (2019 - 10th Round) went from Tri-City to Quad Cities after Lupe Chavez went on the IL and catcher Orlando Marquez was released.

*Hakai Magazine: A tiny Alaskan island faces a threat as deadly as an oil spill - rats.

*How two superstars, four words, and 15 seconds of TV influenced a decade of pop culture.

*The Ringer: Welcome to the world of competitive wiffle ball.

*A Musical Selection:

July 31 Rumor Roundup / Running Post

July 31 is always the most distracting day for me at work. That all has to do with the invention of Twitter and the MLB Trade Deadline, which ends at 3 p.m. CT today. I figured I'd help out with a running post. If you don't want to wait for an update on the post (I do have work after all), you can check out this Twitter List for monitoring the latest news and rumors.

You can check out the news and rumors from July 30 here.

Obviously I'm going to write all this up, but I'm going to take a moment and let some of the details come in, then take a shower, then have a drink, before I get started.

3:55pm: The Greinke deal was finalized "a couple of seconds" before the deadline.

3:41pm: The Astros are assuming $53m of Greinke's remaining contract, which works out to be around $22m per year.

3:36pm: Updated World Series odds have the Astros at 2:1.

3:30pm: The Astros final haul from Toronto is Biagini, Sanchez, and Cal Stevenson.

3:24pm: Seth Beer and Josh Rojas are the others.

3:23pm: Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas are two known names. Two other "high draft picks from recent years" involved.

3:16pm: Kyle Tucker is not one of those prospects.

3:15pm: Four prospects are headed to Arizona

3:13pm: The Astros have acquired Zack Greinke.

3:09pm: Toronto has apparently also traded Aaron Sanchez to Houston.

3:05pm: The Dodgers and Yankees did not get better.

3:02pm: Rosenthal's sources say Bumgarner and Wheeler are staying with their respective teams.

3:01pm: Wheeler is staying with the Mets...for now.

2:58pm: Yeah, the Angels traded for Stassi.

2:56pm: The Angels are trying to swing a deal for Max Stassi.

2:54pm: The Astros may have acquired [squints] Joe Biagini from Toronto?

2:44pm: The Mets' asking price for Zack Wheeler is "steep." A deal would be a surprise at this point.

2:42pm: Former Astros Great Mark Melancon is headed to Atlanta.

2:29pm: The Mets want to Sell AND Buy, and want to beef up their bullpen.

2:24pm: Jeff Passan says on ESPN that Wheeler is either going to the Astros or Rays.

2:21pm: The Yankees are out on Zack Wheeler

2:13pm: The Dodgers have traded for St. Louis' Jedd Gyorko.

2:11pm: The Tigers are close to sending closer Shane Greene to Atlanta.

2:08pm: Still the Astros, Rays, and Yankees in on Wheeler, but the Mets will hold on to him if they don't get the deal they want.

2:00pm: One hour until the Trade Deadline.

1:48pm: Madison Bumgarner remains available, and the Giants will be listening until the deadline.

1:45pm: The Rays have made an offer to the Mets for Wheeler, but both sides are "not close."

1:43pm: Astros, Rays, and Yankees are talking to the Mets about Wheeler. No word on romance level.

1:41pm: Buster Olney just said on ESPN that the feeling is Bumgarner will stay in San Francisco.

1:36pm: Astros and Rays are in on Zack Wheeler, activity is described as "hot and heavy."

1:34pm: The Nationals also got Hunter Strickland from Seattle - their 3rd bullpen addition of the day.

1:31pm: Arizona wanted Clint Frazier plus three prospects from New York for Robbie Ray.

1:25pm: Oakland has acquired pitcher Tanner Roark from Cincinnati.

1:25pm: Apparently it's Drew Pomeranz going to the Brewers from San Francisco.

1:23pm: The Giants and Brewers have agreed to a deal, but it does not include Madison Bumgarner.

1:20pm: The Rays are in on Zack Wheeler.

1:09pm: The Nationals have also acquired lefty reliever Roenis Elias from Seattle - their 2nd bullpen addition of the day.

1:01pm: Martin Maldonado seems to confirm the trade back to Houston.

12:56pm: With the Trade Deadline just over two hours away, a sense of urgency "has started to pick up."

12:54pm: Talks between the Yankees and Diamondbacks on Robbie Ray are now "dead."

12:52pm: The Nationals have traded for Toronto reliever Daniel Hudson.

12:51pm: The Yankees are "considering" Former Astros Great Ken Giles.

12:28pm: The belief now is that the Mets will hold on to closer Edwin Diaz.

12:18pm: Based on cost, it looks like Zach Wheeler is the Astros preferred option.

12:04pm: Astros pitchers loved throwing to Maldonado.

11:58am: Tony Kemp is going to the Cubs for Maldonado. Good for him!

11:55am: Astros acquire Martin Maldonado from Cubs! Check the County Mountie's write-up here.

11:51am: Both Yankees and Astros in on Bumgarner and Wheeler. My prediction is Yankees get Bumgarner. Astros get Wheeler. I doubt the Mets really want to deal with the Yankees. They're just using them as leverage against the Astros.

11:34am: Sounds like there's not much going on the Robbie Ray front. 

10:59am: Astros and Yankees are inquiring on Ray from the Diamondbacks.

10:56am: Zack Wheeler market is heating up!

10:46am: Astros focused on Zach Wheeler and Robbie Ray.

10:43am: Astros are in discussions about reliever help. Ryan Pressley was put on the IL yesterday, retroactive to July 27.

10:32am: Justin Verlander is just like us! Hi Justin!

10:21am: "The Mets are fielding calls from 9 teams on Wheeler." I suspect the Astros are one of those teams.

9:16am: Some news on the Yankees, Giants, and Mets. Hoping this is a sign that reporters are heads down getting information on the next trade. Oh and other teams expect Wheeler to be dealt.

7:40am: Astros are on Madison Bumgarner's "special" no-trade list. Rival execs don't think that will be an issue as getting traded won't saddle him with a qualifying offer. Similar to Justin Verlander a few years ago, this might be a trade that goes down to the wire. If it actually happens.

6:18am: Reds are keeping Bauer, not flipping him. That should make a lot of the Astros' faithful happy.

4:03am: GMs expect Zack Wheeler, Robbie Ray, and Mike Minor to be moved today.

Here are the details from the Tyler Bauer to Cincinnati, Yasiel Puig to Cleveland, and Taylor Trammel to San Diego three-team trade.

Saturday Morning Hot Links

*Busy day around Base Ball yesterday as a ton of moves were made. To recap:

-Perennial Silver-Medalists the Los Angeles Dodgers have acquired Homer Bailey and some prospects for Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood.
-Seattle acquired Former Astros Great Domingo Santana from Milwaukee in exchange for Ben Gamel and another guy.
-The Angels signed Matt Harvey.
-Oakland traded for Jurickson Profar.
-Oakland signed Joakim Soria.
-Daniel Murphy signed with Colorado.
-Tampa officially announced the signing of Charlie F. Morton. Houston will pay Michael Brantley $2m more than Tampa will pay CFM. I do not have an opinion on how this should be taken.
-Meanwhile, the Astros did not trade Kyle Tucker.

*Does Charlie Morton even think about us anymore? Regarding Tampa:
The thought of being able to play close to home and with such a talented group, a young group, an exciting group, seemed something too good to be true. I guess I was looking for a really good situation overall more than a dollar amount, more than a year amount. The quality of character in the clubhouse, those things are really important to me. 

But, b-but...

*Shoutout to Buster Olney for finally blowing the whistle:

The Dodgers are experts at baseball money-laundering. They have cleared the slate for Harper, if they can work it out:

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 21, 2018

*In The Athletic, Jake Kaplan took a look at the bullpen in the wake of Joe Smith's injury.

*Jon Heyman thinks the Astros made a mistake in not extending a Qualifying Offer to Morton and Marwin.

*ABC13 is trying to start some beef between Reddick and Bregman. They also highlighted Dallas Keuchel's new Houston-inspired shoe.

*Meanwhile, here's Brian McTaggart on Lance McCullers, Jr and his charitable efforts.

*Jay Jaffe broke down Billy Wagner's HOF case.

*Here's a KERRRRAZY story from ESPN: a new lawsuit accuses the Mariners - and GM Jerry Dipoto specifically - of discrimination. A wild paragraph:
The lawsuit also says several Latino players complained to Dr. Lorena Martin about feeling excluded and that general manager Jerry Dipoto took midseason steps to deliberately undermine the progress and mental state of star pitcher Felix Hernandez.

*The complicated free-agent case of Manny Machado.

*Here's Eduardo Perez on what the U.S.-Cuba deal means to him.

*Here's SI on the statistical trends that will dominate baseball in 2019.

*The New Zealand Herald is super-pumped about Nick Tanielu joining the Auckland Tuatara. Tanielu (2014 14th Round pick) has hit .295/.341/.421 in parts of five minor-league seasons.

*Please make sure you listen to the almost-hour-long interview with Lance McCullers, Jr. on Lima Time Time.

*2018 Ballon d'Or winner Ada Hegerberg: Not Here To Dance.

*A Musical Selection:

Thursday Morning Hot Links

It's US History STAAR Test Day so I've been up since 2am drinking coffee and eating nails. Pretty cool that my job performance will be influenced by at least 20 kids who would unplug their mom's ventilator if it meant they could charge their phone.

The Astros won yesterday 4-1, sweeping Oakland in the three-game series. Gerrit Cole didn't have double-digit strikeouts so he's obviously trending downwards. Stassi and Fisher went back-to-back, derailing what was a pretty solid Daniel Menhaden start. Gurriel drove in two more runs and Ken Giles threw a perfect inning and got his second save in two days. Make sure you check Jexas' series recap.

Hinch, on the back-to-back jacks:
Those were two big ones, especially the bottom of our order. We've talked about that being a big part of our offense and then seeing those guys come through at a time where Gerrit [gave up a run in the sixth] by mere inches on a double down the line was a big response by us.

George Springer is the first #Astros player in 10 years to record at least 9 hits and 5 runs in a 3-game series. The last to do it was Ty Wigginton in Aug. 2008 vs. ARI.

— Chris Peixoto (@cp_astros) May 9, 2018

*Derek Fisher's home run had an exit velocity of 110mph, joining Springer and Correa as the only Astros to hit a ball that hard. In the last 15 days Fisher is hitting .263/.263/.789.

If you think this homer went deep, check out where the fan is when he throws the ball back 😳 pic.twitter.com/gzuE9bHolt

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 9, 2018

*Holy crap the Astros actually stole a base. It was their 2nd successful stolen base in seven attempts in their last 18 games. And wait, an Astros catcher actually threw someone out when they were trying to steal a base? It was the first CS by an Astros catcher since April 20. Opponents were 8x8 stealing bases in that span, and are 15x18 this season.

*Great article by Bruce Jenkins in the San Francisco Chronicle on Oakland, and aspiring to be Houston.

*Please tell me you saw Flick's return to AC with his Astros as Birds piece. It deserves an award.

*The Astros have played 26 games in the last 27 days. Freakin Minnesota has played 32 games all season. I actually wonder if all the weather cancellations early in the season is going to end up benefiting the Astros at some point because of the impending double-headers and now-cancelled off days for other AL teams. Regard, the number of games played in the American League:

39: Houston, South Denison
38:
37: Toronto, Oakland
36: Red Sox, Yankees, Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Anaheim
35: Seattle
34: Tampa, Chicago
33:
32: Minnesota

In a schedule where there's already a shortage of days off, the Astros have already played 24.1% of their games. Other teams are going to have to make those up later in the season while the Astros get to actually rest on their off-days.

In The Athletic

*I took a brief-ish look at Derek Fisher and Kyle Tucker and how 2018 Fisher (which is getting better!) is a warning sign for promoting Tucker to replace him.

*To that end, Jake Kaplan has a minor-league notebook that took a look at Tucker. Luhnow:
I would say he's definitely tracking toward a call-up this year. But I wouldn't say he's dominating to the point where we feel like we have to add him because we're missing out on production that we should be getting.

There are notes on Frankie Tuesday's arm injury, Myles Straw, and MORE.

*Also from Kaplan: How a sleep apnea diagnosis led to a breakout season for Josh James.

Back to Free Stuff

*Justin Verlander is a Man of Routine. The number of starts he's made in his career, by Days' Rest:

4: 198
5: 129
6: 7
7: 4

So that's worth mentioning that 71 of Verlander's 119 starts since 2013 (59.7%) were on four days' rest, a slight uptick from the 58.9% of starts he's made on four days' rest over his, yes, Hall of Fame career. Interestingly enough, it moves Verlander out of the rotation for both Cleveland series. He won't face the Indians at all in the regular season if he goes every fifth game.

And so the Astros are going to bump Morton, Keuchel, and McCullers - who don't have the cleanest medical histories - back a day to keep Verlander on his routine and navigate the spate of off-days coming up. Hinch:
This helps Charlie have an extra day, and maybe get an extra throwing session in and keeps JV on regular rest for the next two turns, and we'll deal with the next couple of off-days later.

The Astros have off-days today (and what will we do? Probably watch the Preds/Jets Game 7), next Thursday, and the following Monday. Interestingly enough, it moves Verlander out of the rotation in both Cleveland series.

*Of note: Oakland's Dustin Fowler popped up in his pinch-hit appearance. That's normally not notable, but it was Fowler's first career PA in the Majors. It wasn't his first career MLB game, though. It was Fowler who had been called up to the Yankees last June to make his debut when, in the bottom of the 1st, he hit a railing making a defensive play and ruptured a tendon in his knee. He was due to lead off the next inning.

*J.D. Davis is on a tear. Through 100 ABs he's hitting .450/.500/.680 with 14 doubles and three home runs. In his current 12-game hitting streak he's 27x49 (.551) with twelve extra-base hits.

*Humble's Fran Linton will be the Astros' "Honorary Bat Girl" on Mother's Day.

*Yahoo's Mike Oz has a video thing called Old Baseball Cards. It's wonderful. This time, it's Luis Gonzalez featuring a story about Caminiti and Bagwell.

*Miles Mikolas, Adam Duvall, and the oddest plate appearance of 2018.

*Here's a list of every known instance of a team batting out of turn.

Off-Day Playoff Odds Check

FanGraphs: 100-62. 92.5% to win the AL West, 98.2% to make the playoffs, 24.9% to win the WS
FiveThirtyEight: 99-63. 71% to win the AL West, 88% to make the playoffs, 16% to win the WS
Baseball Prospectus: 96-66. 85.5% to win the AL West, 95.5% to make the playoffs, 16.4% to win the WS.

Worth noting that FiveThirtyEight has the Astros at 99 wins, five games behind the Yankees for the AL's best record.

Fisking Jeff Gordon's post

St. Louis Post-Dispatch writer/reporter/columnist/whatever Jeff Gordon had a blazing hawt take yesterday regarding the Astros and their lack of progress under former Cardinals executive Jeff Luhnow. This makes perfect sense, given that the Cardinals - like the Astros - are 60-55 and that the Astros don't play the Cardinals for another four days. The piece was really only a reaction to the Carlos Gomez DFAing. And it's also highly suspect on its own merit. Let's see!

Somebody should hack into the Astros' baseball operation and check that scouting report Jeff Luhnow had an outfielder Carlos Gomez.

LOL felony jokes! Always fun for a local writer to advocate the very action that disgraced Teh Cradinal Way (sic) and landed their former scouting director in a federal penitentiary for almost four years.

...At the time (of the Carlos Gomez trade), agent Scott Boras insisted nothing was wrong with Gomez.

Despite the Mets backing out of the deal due to Gomez's reported hip issues, the Astros were comfortable enough to go ahead and make the deal the Mets didn't, giving up four prospects in the process. There was nothing wrong with Gomez physically at the time, unless Gordon has difficulty in envisioning that players can just not play well.

...Yeah, well good luck with that. Gomez hit .242 with four homers and 13 RBIs in 41 games with Houston last year and struggled with an oblique injury in September.

Is this the proper time to point out to Dr. Gordon that the oblique is not the hip injury he spent the preceding paragraph highlighting? The oblique is not the hip. Are we all clear on that? Good! I guess we'll just ignore how in the final 19 of the 41 regular season games in which Gomez played for Houston in 2015 he hit .318/.370/.561. He did struggle with an oblique injury in September which, given how hot Gomez had gotten over the previous three weeks, could have been instrumental in the Astros' losing the division. Or they could have lost it anyway and had to go to New York for the Wild Card game...where Gomez hit a pretty massive home run. But good luck with that, too.

OH! As a minor aside, Gordon was an awfully big fan of the "good luck with that" phrase back in 2012 when Brad Mills was fired:

(Quoting interim manager Tony DeFrancesco): "There's going to be a commitment to excellence. I want to be the guy who changes the environment around here."

Yeah, well, good luck with that. Real progress is at least a few years away.

Sure would be nice for Gordon to tell us when the Real Progress has finally been achieved.

This season he posted a dismal "slash line" of .210/.272/.322 this season before the Astros finally designated him for assignment.

Why are we putting "slash line" in air-quotes like it's similar to a magic spell? Or do the air-quotes act as a visual cue for the best fans in baseball (TM) to pay attention. Oh, but stats! It's true that Carlos Gomez was not very good this year. That's why he's not with the team anymore.

"The play on the field was not what we expected," Luhnow said, according to MLB.com. "I don't know if anybody could have forecasted a change like that. We didn't..." 

...Actually, the Mets forecast a change like that and backed out of the deal with Milwaukee.

Wait, I thought the Mets backed out of the deal because there were concerns about his hip, not because they thought he wouldn't hit for the remaining 15 months on his contract. The Mets' initial target was Gomez, likely because of the extra year remaining on his deal and his relatively low cost. When they backed out, it was because they didn't like what they saw out of Gomez's hip at that time. They, like the Astros were trying to make the playoffs. At the time that the trade between Milwaukee and New York fell apart, the Mets were two games out of the NL East lead. And since they had concerns over Gomez's hip, they were concerned he wouldn't help them in the 2015 race. They pivoted to Yoenis Cespedes, who obviously worked out much better for the Mets than Gomez did the Astros. However, that the Mets traded for Cespedes shows that they were more interested in the 2015 race than risking missing out on 2015 and taking another shot at 2016. The 2015 Mets have a young core of pitchers, but Daniel Murphy was going to be a free agent, Bartolo Colon was 42. Cuddyer was 36, Granderson was 34. Their window was presumably shorter than the Astros' perceived window. And the Mets had to sign Cespedes to a 3yr/$75m contract to keep him, while the Astros had Gomez under contract for $9m in 2016. The Mets backed out of the deal because they wanted short-term bang, the Astros were interested in a longer-term bang.

The Gomez trade was just one of the mishaps that prevented the Astros from converting their tank-and-rebuild sacrifice into Cubs-like dominance. Here are some more:

Oh this should be good.

Drafting pitcher Mark Appel first overall in the 2013 draft, ahead of Cubs slugger Kris Bryant. Appel struggled in the minors before Luhnow dealt him last winter.

I'm trying to figure out if Gordon here is pissed at Luhnow or if he's pissed at the success the Cubs are having, mainly at the expense of the Cardinals. But sure, I'll play along with Gordon's revisionist history. When Mark Appel was the 1-1 in 2013, the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers said it was "impressive." Keith Law said he was the "best player available." ESPN said Appel immediately became the Astros' top prospect - ahead of Correa, mind you. Alyson Footer said the pick was "pret-tay pret-tay good." Jim Callis said before the 2013 draft that the Cubs and Mark Appel were close to a deal, anyway, with the 1-2 pick. Hey maybe the draft is a crapshoot and things don't work out exactly the way you hope they do. Or we can mention that Appel was at least part of a package that brought Ken Giles to Houston, or do we only focus on April when we talk about Ken Giles?

Drafting pitcher Brady Aiken first overall in the 2014 draft, ahead of the likes of White Sox pitcher Carlos Rodon and Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber. Aiken had elbow problems and never signed with the Astros.

*Pauses to shove leaking brain back up through nose.* Wait, weren't we just talking about how great the Mets were for backing out of the Gomez deal? So the Astros draft Brady Aiken, finally get a chance to check out his elbow, and - with the benefit of the same hindsight that Gordon has access to - rightly have concerns over the elbow with which, as Gordon notes, Aiken has had problems?

Matter of fact, let's check in on Brady Aiken. *Opens Baseball-Reference* Yes, hmmm. 27IP, 36H/22ER, 36K:15BB. Fastball in the high 80s. Yes, he's only 19, and he's coming back from Tommy John surgery. Maybe it'll work out, but how are you gonna praise the Mets for backing out of a deal for medical concerns and then use that same argument to blast the Astros? Or do we talk about how not signing Aiken led to the drafting of Alex Bregman? No? Doesn't fit in the narrative? Okay. But hey, there's the Cubs again. Maybe Gordon should just get a Theo voodoo doll and save us all some time.

Cashiering outfielder J.D. Martinez, who became a power-hitting star for the Tigers.

I know for a fact that J.D. Martinez is the one player on which the front office wishes they had a mulligan. That said, Martinez *did* have almost 1000 Plate Appearances in Houston with a .687 OPS. When the Astros released him, the Tigers worked with him to completely rebuild his swing. I mean, (as Not Hank notes in the link) it happened to the Ramgers with Chris Davis. It happened to the Pirates with Jose Bautista. Should the Astros have totally rebuilt his swing? Maybe. Maybe crap like that happens, though.

Trading elite starting pitching prospect Vince Velasquez (along with Appel) to get Phillies closer Ken Giles - who fell into a middle-relief role in Houston this season.

Again, it's like this post was written in April. Yeah, Early Giles was bad. But since June 1 Giles has thrown 25IP, 20H/4ER, 43K:6BB. A 1.44 ERA/1.04 WHIP, and that's with a .380 BABIP. So the "middle relief role" is true, but that was when he wasn't performing while Luke Gregerson was, and Will Harris earned the next spot up. Oh, and Ken Giles won't be a free agent until 2021. Or is it not okay to deal from a position of (perceived) depth and a struggling minor-league pitcher to acquire a hard-throwing closer of Giles' caliber?

While the Astros still have Fiers from that Gomez deal, what they mostly have is regret.

I mean, the Astros did make the postseason...and came within nothing having to do with Carlos Gomez of making it to the ALCS. And they're only 2.0 GB of a Wild Card spot, even despite the lack of production from formerly-hated Cardinal Colby Rasmus (whom, of course, Gordon notes). So maybe "regret" is strong. They wish Gomez had performed well, but he didn't. So...

Fortunately for the Astros, Santana hasn't done much for the Brewers and Phillips has stalled out in the minors. That eases the pain somewhat. 

Wait. So...what are we complaining about again? That the Astros traded some prospects who - as of right now - aren't lighting the world on fire - to make a playoff push, less than five years after starting a dramatic rebuild? That's a negative? Or are we complaining about Jeff Luhnow because he was a polarizing figure when he was with the Cardinals?

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch sports department has a long history of going out of their way to critique/criticize Luhnow. Maybe the issue isn't really with Luhnow, it's with Gordon.

2016 Astros Trade Deadline: Review of the 2015 Trade Deadline Trades

Trade Deadlines are always interesting, moreso for a team like the Astros.  The Astros have a solid big-league product in 2016, with a potential superstar core that is projected to improve with age and experience.  They have solid right-handed power hitters in defensively important positions, some decent accessory players, and a solid bullpen.  The starting pitching has been much been better over the last two months, which co-incides with their league-best record since May 24.  They lack a glaring weakness (aside from, perhaps, lefty relief) with which to recruit to, and have a farm system that is well set up to replace the players they will lose in Free Agency this year, with the exception of the catching corps.  That is, unless readers believe that Evan Gattis is an everyday player, or Max Stassi, who continues to spin his wheels at AAA (.210/.268/.420) is big-league ready.

History can be a pretty useful guide when predicting what the Astros may do at the 2016 trade deadline.  We don't have a lot of history to go on, because the Astros have been good for exactly one season under the leadership of the current front office, but their work in 2015 is interesting, and does warrant a mention.

If we rewind to the 2015 season, the corresponding time last year was one where the Astros had ridden an early-season hot streak to a big division lead and were slowly getting reeled in by the Ramgers.  They had the clear need for an outfield bat, but not necessarily in CF as Colby Rasmus and George Springer could fake it in there without looking too bad.  The Astros possessed enough infield options to ride the hot hand, with interesting guys like MarGo, Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar and Jed Lowrie (who had recently returned from the DL around this time) all able to rotate through multiple positions.  Lefty relief was not a problem, as Tony Sipp was in the midst of a great season (1.99 ERA, 2.93 FIP).  Starting pitching depth was a clear area of need, because the Astros had to rely on luminaries such as Roberto Hernandez and Brett Oberholtzer through the first two months of the season - at least until Lance McCullers arrived and settled in.  Scott Feldman's health is never something to bank on, so the Astros clearly needed some assistance in the rotation.

So the Astros made two trades to address these needs:

• July 23: Scott Kazmir was acquired from the Oakland Athletics.  RHP Daniel Mengden and C/DH Jacob Nottingham went to the A's in return.  Kazmir was to become a free agent at the end of the 2015 season.
• July 30: Carlos Gómez and Mike Fiers were acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers.  CF Brett Phillips, OF Domingo Santana, LHP Josh Hader and RHP Adrian Houser were traded to the Brewers in return.  Gómez is due to become a free agent at the end of the 2016 season, whereas Mike Fiers cannot become a free agent until after the 2019 season.

In terms of what the Astros acquired, analysis of this is pretty simple.  Scott Kazmir provided the Astros with just over 73 innings of 4.17 ERA ball, running a 5.19 FIP in the process.  This was in contrast to his 110-odd Oakland innings earlier in 2015, which had resulted in an ERA of 2.38 and a FIP of 3.16.  Kazmir was worth 0.0 bWAR or a 0.1fWAR with the Astros, while having posted a 3.3 bWAR or a 2.3 fWAR in 2015 prior to the trade.

Kazmir's value, however, was perhaps not entirely able to be summed up by season-long stats.  He started his time with the Astros with some phenomenal baseball.  His first two Astros starts involved shutouts - 7 innings in a win against the Royals on July 24 then seven-and-two-thirds against the Angels on July 30 - both allowing only three hits.  After lurching toward the end of the season with some less notable performances, Kazmir then managed a solid postseason start against the Royals in which he allowed three earned runs over five-and-one-third.  Middle relief lost that game (ALDS, Game 2) for the Astros, as they were unable to clean up the mess that Kazmir had left before he was pulled.  Different decision making would have perhaps led to a different outcome, but I recall being madder at A.J. Hinch, Josh Fields and Tony Sipp than Scotty K.

Mike Fiers was much better after his trade than Scott Kazmir, albeit in fewer innings.  He threw just over 62 frames of 3.32 ERA / 4.39 FIP ball, including a memorable August 21 no-hitter against the Dodgers.  Fire's post-trade effort was worth an even-1 in terms of bWAR and 0.6 in fWAR parlance.  Despite this, Fiers didn't get nominated for a postseason start, throwing only one inning in relief in the postseason to cap his 2015 season (he allowed a run in that frame).

Fiers, of course, remains a Houston Astro, and will do until 2019 if the Astros wish.  He has struggled a little this season, throwing just under 100 innings with an ERA of 4.75 and a FIP of 4.79.  To the eye, he has looked like a league-average pitcher who occasionally gets lit up.  The Astros management don't seem to give him much rope when he does get in trouble, so he has had three games this season where he has been hooked before the end of the fourth inning, allowing seven, four and six runs respectively (including the Michael Feliz walk-a-thon in Oakland this last week).

Which brings us to Carlos Gómez.  Sigh.  When I wrote about Gómez prior to the season, I thought that he had a high floor and a potentially a very high ceiling, noting his monster 2013 season (.284/.356/.477 with elite defence).  Many analysts were happy to ignore his struggles in 2015 (where he posted .242/.288/.383 as an Astro, resulting in a bWAR of 0.7 and an fWAR of 0.9) on the basis of injuries.  Despite these injuries, Gómez had a decent postseason: .267/.267/.667 with two home runs.  His intercostal injury meant that he did not start games 1 and 2 of the ALDS.

Strictly speaking, this article should be about the 2015 post-trade value, so perhaps we should finish there by stating that Gómez provided some decent value despite playing time limited by difficult-to-heal injuries.  But 2016 is also happening, and when the Astros gave up Phillips et al, it was because Carlos Gómez was also expected to be something in 2016, as well.  For example, I imagine the Astros would have been factoring a future qualifying offer into the trade decision when they made it.

Well, 2016 has been unkind to Carlos Gómez, who is in the midst of posting the worst season of his career.  His current slash-line sits at .211/.276/.327, and as all reasonable Astros fans know - who have watched his wild swishes and helmet falling off on multiple occasions - Gómez has been less than good.  bWAR and fWAR are in agreement: Gómez has been below replacement level to the tune of -0.3 Wins.  But as A.J. Hinch is probably sick of saying - a productive Carlos Gómez helps this lineup immensely - so he will be given an opportunity to work it all out.

This is only looking at the players that the Astros acquired.  The performance of the players traded away is an article by itself - perhaps the subject of some offseason work by your loyal and hardworking AC staff.  Stay tuned.

What does this analysis of the 2015 Trade Deadline mean??  Well, I guess there are different interpretations for different people, but I would think that the following points should be mostly accepted as truisms (drawing on information from the market this year):

• Buyers are probably - on the whole - going to get hosed in trade negotiations.  Multiple prospects for attainable players (most of which usually have something about them that makes then available) is normally going to result in the buying team getting pounded in the long run.
• Timing is everything.  Flags fly forever and all of that, and I am pretty sure that the Royals would be happy with the moves they made last year despite being hobbled in the starting pitching ranks this year because of those trades.
• Minor leaguers often need a season or two to settle in.  Contending teams often don't have the time to throw them into the big leagues and let them sort their performance out.  They need performance now, and often have to pay for it.  The Brewers have been patient with Villar this year, or Santana last year, but the Astros arguably didn't have that luxury.  Whilst I would love to see some Astros Rookies getting time in September or October, I would probably feel pretty nervous in the event that they were asked to play a meaningful role.
• This year, it seems that there are few genuine rental players, but most of the blockbusters will be trades aimed at 2016, as well as 2017 and 2018.  Trades for Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Chris Archer would be examples of this trend, which the Ramgers also managed last year in the Cole Hamels trade.  This would be in contrast to say, a trade for Aroldis Chapman, or Scott Kazmir last year, both of whom would get to play two or three months for their new clubs before hitting free agency.  Our rivals across the state seem in a good position to make a trade for a controllable starter, but it will cost them a bevy of premium prospects or young MLB talent if a trade such as this goes ahead.

For 50-odd weeks of the year, I would like nothing more than to work in the Front Office of the Astros.  For the next week, I am glad that I am not there.  Trades are hard, the buying team is likely to give up more talent than they receive, and a late-season slump may make it all for naught.  Best of luck to the Front Office for this one, but my pick is that pick up either a lefty reliever, or a top of the rotation starter who is controlled for a few years (while kissing goodbye to Alex Bregman and Francis Marte).

Jeff Luhnow: A Retrospective (Part 4)

This is the fourth part of an ongoing series where I do my best to recap and grade each of Jeff Luhnow's major decisions since taking over the Astros in December 2011. (part 1, part 2, part 3)

December 11, 2014

Delino DeShields drafted by the Texas Rangers in the rule 5 draft.

Taken with the 8^th overall pick in 2010, DeShields used his blazing speed to steal 101 bases in his first full professional season. As a 21-year-old, he hit just .236/.330/.360 at Double-A while many reports surfaced of character issues and attitude problems. The Astros left him off of their 40-man roster in favor of infielder Ronald Torreyes who they would designate for assignment months later.

At just 22, Deshields became the Rangers everyday centerfielder, hitting .261/.344/.374. He finished seventh in the Rookie of the Year voting, but was worth just 1.1 WAR due to his negative defensive value. He was optioned to Triple-A in 2016.

This is a move that Luhnow take a lot of heat for, and I understand that, but I don’t think it’s as bad as everyone thinks. There was simply nowhere for Deshields to play at the major league level with the Astros. Maybe they could have gotten something in return if they had protected him and traded him, but you have to remember he was coming off a really bad year at Double-A. I’m sure Luhnow tested the waters and couldn’t find a trade partner. You can’t keep everybody.

Grade: C

December 12, 2014

Signed Luke Gregerson as a free agent.

At 3yrs/$18.5M, Gregerson has been serviceable for the Astros. He saved 31 games for the club in 2015 with a 3.10 ERA and retained the closer’s role in 2016 even after the acquisition of Ken Giles (more on that later).

Grade: B

December 12, 2014

Signed Pat Neshek as a free agent.

After an incredible All-Star season with the Cardinals, the side-arming righty signed a 2yr/$12.5M contract with the Astros. He hasn’t come close to matching his 1.87 ERA with St. Louis, but has been still given Houston value.

Grade: C+

December 15, 2014

Signed Jed Lowrie as a free agent.

After finally proving he could handle a two seasons without injury, Lowrie rejoined the Astros on a 3yr/$23M deal that was presumably designed to give the Astros the option not to promote Carlos Correa before they or he was ready. Or, that was the plan. Lowrie played in just 69 games during yet another injury-riddled season.

He did help keep Correa in the minors until his Super 2 date passed, though.

Grade: C

January 14, 2015

Traded Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman, and Mike Foltynewicz to the Atlanta Braves. Received James Hoyt and Evan Gattis.

Folty had an arm to dream on, routinely touching triple digits as a starter. The strikeouts never materialized in the way one would expect such a lively arm to produce – just 7.8 K/9 in his minor league career. He started 15 games for the Braves in 2015 winning four with a 5.71 ERA. He is still being shuttled between Triple-A and the big leagues with Atlanta, but the former first round pick is still just 24 years old.

Andrew Thurman was taken by the Astros in the second round of the 2013 draft. The right-hander has yet to impress in the minors, with a 4.79 ERA across four seasons. He has yet to get above Double-A.

Rio Ruiz, seen by some as the third baseman of the future when he was taken in the 4^th round of the 2012 draft, fell behind Colin Moran on the depth chart and was thus expendable. After .293/.387/.436 campaign as a 20-year-old in High-A, Ruiz fell off drastically with the Braves. At Double-A in 2015, he hit just .229 with 5 home runs. He’s gotten off to a better start at Triple-A in 2016 and is still just 22, but some of the shine has come off of his prospect status.

After playing independent ball for a few years, the Braves took a flyer on Hoyt and signed him as a minor-league free agent. After posting a 3.49 ERA in Triple-A for the Astros in 2015, he nearly made the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training in 2016. He is currently the closer at Triple-A Fresno but will almost certainly see big league action in 2016.

El Oso Blanco comes with an even more improbable backstory. Gattis was once committed to Texas A&M out of high school but battled a number of demons and wound up, among other things, as a janitor. After pulling himself together, the Braves signed him as a minor league free agent. He made his debut at 26 and had a breakout season in 2014 with a 126 OPS+ while serving as the Braves catcher. In 2015, he occupied the Astros DH position and hit .246/.285/.463 with a team-leading 27 home runs and 88 runs batted in. He was recently optioned to work on his catching skills again and will now serve as the Astros backup catcher and designated hitter. He will not be a free agent until 2019.

This trade is still too fresh to judge accurately, as a lot of it depends on whether Ruiz and Folty pan out into legitimate major leaguers. If Gattis can provide defensive value behind the plate and continue to hit at a bit above league average, he will serve his purpose with the Astros.

Grade: B-

January 19, 2015

Trade Dexter Fowler to the Chicago Cubs. Received Dan Straily and Luis Valbuena.

With center field occupied by Marisnick and just one year left before he hit free agency, Fowler was an expendable asset. In 2015, he hit .250/.346/.411 and a career-high 17 home runs for the Cubs. He went from being the worst defensive center fielder in baseball to one of the worst, which gave him a 2.2 WAR for the season.

Straily appeared in 4 games with the Astros in 2015 and was designated for assignment before the 2016 season and eventually traded for Erik Kratz. 

After watching Matt Dominguez hit .215 at third base in 2014 and Colin Moran still needing some seasoning, the Astros needed a third baseman for the 2015 season. Valbuena was coming off of a season where he hit .249 with 33 doubles and still had two years of service time – just enough to stall Moran. He gave the Astros probably more than what they thought they would get, hitting a career-high 25 homeruns and accruing 2.2 WAR, which if you are keeping score at home is exactly the same as Fowler.

Filled a positional need and paid Valbuena $5 million less.

Grade: B+

January 20, 2015

Signed Colby Rasmus as a free agent.

After being granted free agency by the Blue Jays following a down year, Rasmus signed a 1yr/$8M deal with the man who drafted him in the first round back in 2005 with the Cardinals. The Astros got more than they bargained for as Rasmus hit 25 home runs on his way to a 2.6 WAR season – not to mention his playoff heroics.

Grade: A+

January 21, 2015

Traded Carlos Corporan to the Texas Rangers. Received Akeem Bostick.

Corporan played parts of four seasons with the Astros as the backup catcher. In 198 games he hit .224/.285/.349. He was worth exactly 1.5 WAR over those four seasons. With the Rangers in 2015 he hit .178 before losing most of season to injuries. The 32-year-old is currently with the Rays Triple-A affiliate.

Bostick was the Rangers 2^nd round draft pick in 2013. The 6’ 6” right-hander had a 5.18 ERA at A-ball when he was traded. In 2015, he had a 1.50 ERA at the Astros A-ball affiliate before moving up to High-A Lancaster. At 21 and still two years younger than the average opponent, Bostick began the 2016 season back in Lancaster.

With Castro, Conger, and Gattis on the roster, the writing was on the wall for Corporan. He probably would have been designated for assignment, but somehow Luhnow got an interesting prospect. Even if Bostick never makes it to the big leagues, it was way better than nothing.

Grade: B+

July 23, 2015

Traded Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham to the Oakland Athletics. Received Scott Kazmir.

Thrust into the middle of a pennant race at least a year earlier than expected, Luhnow sprung into “win-now” mode. Kazmir was in the last year of his contract but had a 2.38 ERA in 18 games with the A’s. The Astros made runs at other starting pitchers at the deadline but ended up making a deal for Kazmir – who they were concerned may wear down as the season went on as he had done in the past. In 13 games with the Astros, he was 2-6 with a 4.17 ERA.

Mengden was the Astros 4^th round pick in the 2014 draft. After dominating the Midwest League to the tune of a 1.16 ERA in 10 games, he was promoted to High-A where he allowed 29 runs in 49.2 innings when he was traded. Armed with a deadly slider and a killer mustache, Mengden has opened the 2016 season on an absolute tear. Through 43 innings at Double- and Triple-A, he has given up just three runs while striking out 43.

After being drafted in the 6^th round of the 2013 draft, Nottingham struggled in his first two professional seasons before breaking out in a big way in 2015 when he hit .316/.372/.505. The A’s traded him to the Brewers after the 2015 season and he is hitting .225 through 31 games at Double-A.

I’d be willing to bet Luhnow thought Nottingham was playing way above his true potential, but it is always hard to give up a catching prospect that can hit (though whether he can stay at catcher remains to be seen). Mengden, on the other hand, may really hurt.

Grade: C-

July 30, 2015

Traded Josh Hader, Brett Phillips, Adrian Houser, and Domingo Santana to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and cash.

Oh boy.

After being named the Astros minor league pitcher of the year, the 21-year-old Hader had a 3.17 ERA against guys four years older than him at Double-A when he was traded. He entered the season as the Brewers No. 4 prospect and has not disappointed – allowing just four runs in 40.2 innings while striking out 54 at Double-A.

In 2014, the Astros named Phillips their minor league hitter of the year after he hit .310/.375/.529 with 17 home runs across two levels of competition as a 20-year-old. When he was traded, he was hitting .321 at Double-A. The center fielder entered the 2016 season as a top 100 prospect.

Houser was taken in the 2^nd round of the 2010 draft by the Astros but has yet to reach that potential in the minors. The 23-year-old has a 4.43 ERA through six seasons. He pitched in two innings with the Brewers last year but opened the 2016 season at Double-A.

Domingo Santana, a toolsy outfielder, made his major league debut at 21 in 2014 after hitting .296/.384/.474 with 16 home runs at Triple-A. He played in 14 games with the Astros in 2015, hitting .256 but striking out in 17 of his 42 plate appearances. But at Triple-A, Santana had a .320 average with 16 home runs in just 75 games when he was traded. He made the Brewers Opening Day roster in 2016 and has been tabbed by many as a breakout candidate this year. He is still just 23.

Mike Fiers pitched better as an Astro than Scott Kazmir did, posting a 3.32 ERA in 10 games that included the first no-hitter in Minute Maid Park history. Team-controlled until 2020, Fiers was acquired to give the Astros pitching depth for the next few years while prospects developed. He has been pretty much exactly the Astros hoped he would be when they acquired him. An innings eater at the back of the rotation.

Carlos Gomez has been….not the player that the Astros thought they were getting. 

After two straight All-Star seasons with above-average offense and stellar center field defense – including a 2013 season that saw him produce an astounding 8.5 WAR – Gomez hit just .255/.314/.409 in 2015 with the Brewers and Astros. In 2016, he has been one of the five worst regular position players in baseball. He will be a free agent this offseason.

If Gomez had even performed at his career average, this would have been a decent trade. A hefty price, sure, but Gomez was one of the best players in baseball for two years. As it stands, even if none of the prospects the Astros traded make the majors this has been a loss – that’s how bad Gomez has been. But if any of Hader, Santana, or Phillips reach their potential, we could be talking about this trade for a long, long time.

Grade: F--

Jeff Luhnow: A Retrospective (Part 3)

This is the third part of an ongoing series where I do my best to recap and grade each of Jeff Luhnow's major decisions since taking over the Astros in December 2011. (part 1, part 2)

December 3, 2013

Traded Brandon Barnes and Jordan Lyles to the Colorado Rockies. Received Dexter Fowler.

If players were measured by grit, Barnes would be an inner-circle Hall of Famer. The outfielder patrolled Tal’s Hill with reckless abandon during the 2013 season but hit just .240. He’s done essentially the same at Coors Field and is still with the Rockies though the speed that once made him exciting has receded at age 30.

Taken 38^th overall in 2008 by the Astros, Lyles was called up to the majors at a really young age. Seriously, take a guess at how old he is. Doesn’t it seem like forever ago that he pitched with the Astros? He’s 25. That’s younger than Jose Altuve. Age aside, Lyles has never lived up to the potential of his draft spot. He’s had just one year (2014) with an ERA below 5. He is still with the Rockies.

Dexter Fowler is an on-base machine. Since his first full season at age 23, his OBP has never dipped below .350. In 2014 he hit .276/.375/.399 while playing center field for the Astros. But for all the value his bat provide, Fowler rated as one of the worst defenders in baseball. It was his second year of arbitration and the Astros paid $7.35 million.

Two replacement level players for a major league regular is a win in anyone’s book.

Grade: B+

December 6, 2013

Signed Scott Feldman as a free agent.

After coming up with the Rangers as a reliever, Feldman established himself as an innings eating starter by his fourth full season. In 2009, he won 17 games with a 114 ERA+. He signed a 3yr/$30MM contract with the Astros and has been exactly the back of the rotation starter they signed him to be.

Grade: B

December 18, 2013

Selected Collin McHugh off waivers from the Colorado Rockies.

McHugh had an ERA approaching 10 when the Astros scooped him up from the Rockies. Luhnow said that McHugh’s curveball had one of the best spin rates in baseball and hypothesized that it would play up if he would throw more high fastballs and escaped the thin air of Coors Field. All McHugh did in his first season with the Astros was post a 2.73 ERA, striking out a batter per inning and finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting. In 2015, he finished eighth in the Cy Young voting due in large part to his 19 wins.

Grade: A+

March 22, 2014

Released J.D. Martinez.

There’s no beating around the bush here – this was a terrible move. A defendable move at the time, sure, but terrible none the less. Martinez was just 25 when the Astros gave up on him after three seasons in the majors. By now you know the story: he re-tooled his swing but the Astros didn’t give him a chance to showcase it in Spring Training. He was immediately scooped up by the Tigers (who had expressed interest in trading for him) and turned into a bona fide superstar. In 2014, while the Astros trotted out Robbie Grossman and L.J. Hoes in left field, Martinez hit .315/.358/.553 with 23 home runs. And it wasn’t a fluke. In 2015 he hit 30 home runs and received MVP votes. All told, he has had a 142 OPS+ in two-plus seasons with Detroit and has been worth almost 10 WAR.

Grade: F

May 1, 2014

Singed Tony Sipp as a free agent.

For reasons I still do not understand, Arizona granted Sipp free agency while he had a 0.90 ERA in Triple-A in early 2013. He then signed with the Padres and pitched in 14 innings at Triple-A before San Diego gave up on him. The Astros picked him up for the league minimum salary and he quickly became one of their more reliable relievers. A lefty capable of getting hitters on both sides of the plate out, Sipp had a career year in 2015 when he struck out over a batter per inning and had a 1.99 ERA.

Grade: A

June 7, 2014

Drafted Brady Aiken first overall. Welp. No need going into that here. Suffice to say this did not turn out how either party had hoped. Carlos Rodon, Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Nola, Michael Conorto were taken within the first ten picks and have already made their big league debuts.

Other Astros draftees – Derek Fisher, A.J. Reed, J.D. Davis and Daniel Mengden. All legitimate prospects. It’s probably way too soon to put a grade on a draft so recent, but hey, that’s what they pay me the big bucks for. (On an unrelated note, if anyone would like to pay me The Big Bucks, it would be greatly appreciated.)

Grade: C

July 31, 2014

Traded Austin Wates, Jarred Cosart and Enrique Hernandez to the Miami Marlins. Received Francis Martes, Colin Moran, Jake Marisnick and a 2015 compensation draft pick.

Ha.

Haha.

Hahahahahahahahaha.

Wates never made it above Triple-A and was released following the 2015 season.

Cosart, when he wasn’t busy complaining about rookies throwing bullpen sessions at the major league park, barely struck out more batters than he walked despite a 95 MPH cutter. He finished the 2014 season on a tear with the Marlins, posting a 2.39 ERA in 10 starts but was sent to Triple-A in 2015 after a terrible start to the season. He is still bouncing between the big leagues and the minors for Miami.

A super-utility player and a super-fun dude, Hernandez played in all of 18 games for the Marlins before they trade him to the Dodgers where he comes off the bench and jumps around in banana suits. 

Francis Martes had a 5.18 ERA in rookie ball when he was traded, but the Astros are said to have seen something they really wanted in him. All he’s done since then is become a top 100 prospect and a potential frontline starter. He is still just 20 years old and is currently in Double-A after posting a 2.04 ERA across three levels of competition in 2015.

The Astros considered drafting Moran No. 1 overall in 2013, but they chose Mark Appel instead. Pay no attention to that other third baseman who went to the Cubs at No. 2. None of the tools stand out when you watch Moran play, but there is no doubting hit ability to put bat to ball. He sports a .299/.356/.426 career line in the minors.

Jake Marisnick immediately took over as the everyday center fielder when the Astros acquired him. Lighting fast with great instincts, Marisnick is a fantastic defender – the only question was whether he could hit. In 51 games with Houston in 2014, he hit .272 but his production dropped off significantly in his first full season, hitting .236 over 133 games. He made the Opening Day roster in 2016 but is currently at Houston’s Triple-A affiliate.

The Astros used the pick they got in this trade to select Daz Cameron 37^th overall in 2015. The toolsy 19-year-old has a long way to go to reach the big leagues, but many had him pegged as a top 10 talent in the draft that fell only due to signability concerns. Only the Astros were able to match his asking price and his career could take this trade from excellent to excellent-er.

Grade: A++

November 3, 2014

Selected Will Harris off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks apparently couldn’t find room on their 40-man roster for a man who has a 1.62 ERA with a 248 ERA+ in 88.2 innings with the Astros. Harris has been one of, if not the, best relievers in the Astros bullpen. As of now, he has locked down the 8^th inning role for A.J. Hinch.

If you’re keeping track at home, two of the Astros top relievers (Sipp* and Harris) have essentially been given to the club by Arizona. It’s like they’re snakebitten or something.

(*Sipp was granted free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Padres who granted him free agency to sign with the Astros)

Grade: A+

November 5, 2014

Traded Carlos Perez and Nick Tropeano to the Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim. Received Hank Conger.

If you will remember, Perez was part of the mega-trade with the Blue Jays in 2012. He played in 86 games with the Angels in 2015, hitting .250/.299/.346 while throwing out 38% of baserunners. He has taken over as their everyday catcher in 2016.

While he will never be confused as a top of the rotation talent, Tropeano has been a solid rotation piece for the Angles. In 15 games since being traded, he has struck out 77 batters in 74.1 innings with a 3.75 – good for a 101 ERA+.

Conger, meanwhile, hit .229/.311/.448 in 73 games as the Astros backup catcher in 2015. 42 people tried to steal a base on him. 41 succeeded. That is insane. He managed to scrape together 0.4 WAR thanks in large part to his excellent framing skills. Arguably his largest contribution to the club was his dancing robot in the dugout.

The Astros needed a backup catcher, but they traded away a better one than they got – not to mention the perfectly serviceable pitcher they gave up as well.

Grade: D