INTRO PARAGRAPH. SOMETHING ABOUT IT BEING FUN TO CELEBRATE AWFULNESS, LIKE 2010-2013.
First, some disclaimers:
1) I know some of the names of which you are thinking. But those guys probably didn't get enough ABs to qualify for the batting title, or innings pitched to qualify as a pitcher. I'm looking for worst start-to-finish, honest-to-God everyday player in Astros history. So you're not going to see Carlos Gomez, Jon Singleton, Brett Wallace, Jordan Schafer, etc. They didn't play enough in a given season to qualify.
2) I'm using FanGraphs' version of WAR because it's easier to sort. I like easy.
So let's take this in order from (tied for) 5th-worst, to the worst overall season in Astros history.
Three-way tie for 5th-worst:
Ryan Bowen, 1992: -1.2 fWAR
Ryan Bowen was the Astros 1st pick of the 1986 draft (#13 overall), after players like Gary Sheffield, Kevin Brown, Matt Williams, and Greg Swindell had been selected. After the 6th pick of the 1st Round of the 1986 draft, only two players enjoyed a career fWAR over 9.0 (Roberto Hernandez and Luis Alicea). He made his professional debut at Age 19 in Single-A Asheville, going 12-5 with 126 strikeouts in 160.1IP, a 4.04 ERA/1.38 WHIP. He walked 78 batters in foreshadowing of what would be an ongoing issue - Bowen walked 116 batters (but struck out 136) in 139.2IP for Double-A Columbus in 1989.
He made his Houston debut in 1991, allowing 73H/41ER, 49K:36BB in 71.2IP for the Astros. Bowen had a no-hitter going through the 5th of his first Major-League start against St. Louis on July 22...and then allowed four runs in the 6th inning. Bowen did mix in four Quality Starts for the 1991 Astros, and four disaster starts, the low point being a 1.2IP, 8H/8ER, 2K:1BB, 1HBP. But his last three starts saw him throw 18IP, 10H/5ER, 14K:10BB, holding opponents to a .159/.270/.175 slash line.
1992 opened with Bowen starting G4 of the season. The 1992 Astros finished 81-81 but the pitcher with the most wins was closer Doug Jones, with 11. One other pitcher - Jimmy Jones - had double-digit wins. Bowen's season debut didn't exactly pick up where he left off in 1991: 5IP, 8H/8ER, 2K:4BB, 3HR against Cincinnati on April 10. A scoreless inning of relief on April 14 was followed by another start on April 21 against the Giants: 4IP, 6H/6ER, 1K:3BB, 1HR. It didn't really get better. Bowen pitched into the 6th inning once in his nine starts. He didn't make it out of the 2nd inning in three of them. After the season the Astros left him unprotected in the expansion draft, and he was selected by the Florida Marlins.
1992 season line: 33.2IP, 48H/41ER, 22K:30BB, 8HR, 2HBP. 10.96 ERA/2.32 WHIP.
Travis Blackley, 2013: -1.2 fWAR
Blackley was the other Australian pitcher not named Ryan Rowland-Smith, an interesting case in that he was drafted in 2000, made his MLB debut (10.04 ERA/2.19 WHIP) 26IP for Seattle in 2004, didn't pitch in the Majors again until 2007 (7.27 ERA/1.73 WHIP) in 8.2IP for San Francisco. Didn't pitch again in the Majors until 2012, when the A's plucked him off waivers from San Francisco after he allowed 7H/5ER in 5IP for the Giants. With the A's, though, he threw 102.2IP, 91H/44ER, 69(nice)K:30BB. So this led to a trade to the Astros, who were Very Bad in 2013, for Jake Goebbert (whom I really liked).
An underrated part of the 2010-2013 Astros were that they were basically a non-profit organization - helping the poor, the needy, the under-privileged. Did you know that if you appear in one Major-League Baseball game, your health insurance is covered for the rest of your life? So the Astros played a whole bunch of dudes who had no business being on a Major-League roster with the explicit intent of letting them get free health insurance (this is how I'm partially justifying the hell of 2010-2013).
ANYWAY. The 2013 were bad enough to trade a young player for a 30-year old reliever with a career 5.37 ERA and a 5.8 K/9. The Astros ran Blackley out for 42 appearances in that 111-loss campaign. In his Astros debut he allowed 3H/3ER, 0K:2BB, 1HR against Cleveland in a 19-6 loss. Foreshadowing. Three days later he allowed a homer in 2IP against Seattle (though was credit with a hold. He had periods of showing that he could get hitters out followed by a complete inability to miss a bat. He faced 152 batters as an Astro, 47 of them breached base.
After he allowed a hit and a walk against Boston on August 7, Blackley was traded to the Ramgers for a PTBNL and cash, though I have no idea which player was actually named later. Maybe the PTBNL was a Ramgers fan jumping ship to Houston, and the Astros just took the fan and the $30 he spent at Lids buying a new hat as the cash and the PTBNL. He did not have nice things to say about his time with the Astros. I wrecked him.
2013 season line: 35IP, 30H/19ER, 29K:20BB, 10HR, 4WP. 4.89 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 6.91 FIP. You know how hard it is to post a -1.2 fWAR in 35IP?
John Hudek, 1997: -1.2 fWAR
John Hudek was drafted by the White Sox in the 10th Round of the 1988 draft, taken by the Tigers in the 1992 Rule 5 draft, and selected off waivers eight months later by the Astros. He threw 39.1IP for the 1994 Astros, earning an All-Star nod by allowing 24H/13ER, 39K:18BB, a 2.97 ERA/1.07 WHIP belied by a 4.25 FIP (but nobody knew anything about FIP in 1994, just amphetamines). 1995 went worse. In just 20IP, he allowed 12ER for a 5.40 ERA/1.20 WHIP...but with a 2.90 FIP. So his first two years cancelled each other out. 1996 was a return to his Even Year Form, even with a small sample size: 16IP, 12H/5ER, 14K:5BB - a 2.81 ERA/1.06 WHIP.
Then 1997 happened. He threw 40.2IP for the Astros and while there wasn't ever any game where you'd look and think "Holy crap that guy gotta go," there were prolonged periods of inactivity for a team that won the division yet under-performed their Pythagorean Wins by nine games. After the season the Astros traded Hudek to the Mets for (somehow) Carl Everett.
Perhaps you've seen that John Hudek's daughter, Sarah, was perhaps the first female to get a college scholarship to play baseball. He runs the John Hudek All-Star Baseball Academy in Sugar Land.
1997 Final Line: 40.2IP, 38H/27ER, 36K:3BB, 8HR, 3HBP, 4WP. 5.98 ERA/1.75 WHIP, 6.55 FIP.
Let's call it 3rd-worst:
Al Osuna, 1992: -1.4 fWAR
This cat is weird. Selected in the 5th Round of the 1985 draft by Baltimore AND by the Padres in the 2nd Round of the Secondary Phase (where you could stock your farm systems. It's strange, maybe I don't get it. Read about it here.), Osuna apparently didn't sign with either team, and was selected by the Astros in the 16th Round of the 1987 draft out of Stanford.
Osuna made his major-league debut on September 2, 1990 against Pittsburgh, striking out two but allowing 2H/2ER in the 7th inning. Two days later he started a four-game run where he threw 6IP, 1H/0ER, 3K:2BB including his first ML win. He would give up one run in four of his last seven games of the season. Whatever. He threw 81.2IP for Houston in 1991, allowing a respectable 3.42 ERA/1.29 WHIP, but with 68K:46BB. For what would be his Age-26 Season in 1992, it was a decent jump.
Yeah no. But it was fun at first! In his first 11 games (11IP) Osuna allowed 6H/0ER...but with 7K:9BB. He allowed four earned runs at Pittsburgh, blowing his first save of the season. Two weeks later he got his second loss at St. Louis. He had a pattern, a few outings of decent relief followed by a couple of runs. His nadir came on September 20 at Atlanta when he allowed 5H/6ER, 0K:2BB, 3HR in a 16-1 loss. Before the 1994 season Osuna was traded to the Dodgers for pitcher Jimmy Daspit, who never played in Houston.
1992 Final Line: 61.2IP, 52H/29ER, 37K:38BB, 8HR, 4.23 ERA/1.46 WHIP. 270 batters faced, 85 reached base.
2nd-Worst:
Carlos Lee, 2010: -1.7 fWAR
I think we all knew how this was gonna go when the 6yr/$100m contract was signed. The first few years were gonna be pretty fine, but the back end was gonna be awful. The Astros were counting on that, with Uncle Drayton hoping the Astros could make another Series run before the contract became an albatross, which it did. Over the first three seasons (2007-2009) Lee hit .305/.354/.524 with 86 homers and 321 RBI (and 105 doubles) for a 128 OPS+. I mean, yeah, he hit into 56 GIDPs, which is a lot, but 86 homerz!
2010 was the worst year of his career - a 123-point OPS drop. After eight seasons of an OPS over .800, Lee cratered. He hit .238/.281/.409 against right-handed pitchers a year after hitting .293/.332/.482 against the same pitchers who happened to throw with their right hand. And in 2009 he had a .915 OPS but somehow that turned into a .766 OPS at Minute Maid. I would rather have given him $80m for 3yrs than $100m/6yrs but that's hindsight.
But Purpura and Drayton gonna Purpura and Drayton and the Astros still owed Carlos Lee $55m to post a combined 1.8 fWAR over the last three years of his deal, which included a trade to the Yankees no wait Marlins.
Lee rebounded slightly from 2010 to 2011, a season in which he posted a .275/.342/.446 line for a 2.9 fWAR. But it didn't eliminate 2010, or the Astros unwillingness as a franchise to see that major changes needed to be made - and not in the form of Carlos Lee or Woody Williams - to save the team as a whole.
2010 Final Line: .246/.291/.417, 24 HR, 89 RBI, 59K:37BB in 649 PAs. He made contact, none of it well.
The Worst Season in Astros History:
In 2017 Matt Dominguez will be in his Age 28 season, the point at which (reasonably speaking) a Major-League player should be peaking. But we knew what we were getting with Matt Dominguez: good-glove, no-hit 3B. He's as if Henry Skrimshander got moved to third to make way for Carlos Correa, but only to see if he could hang on to his job. If the Astros could make his bat work, it would be a steal.
The Marlins' 1st Round pick (12th overall) in the 2007 draft (the same round in which the Astros basically sunk the future to sign Lee and Woody Williams, didn't draft until the 3rd Round and didn't sign Derek Dietrich and Brett Eibner, making their first signed pick the 171st overall pick Collin DeLome), Dominguez was traded - in a really sweet piece of symmetry - to the Astros on July 4, 2012...for Carlos Lee.
In 31 games for the Astros in 2012 Dominguez fared well, hitting .284/.310/.477 with nine extra-base hits in 113 PAs. He got his first real shot for the 2013 Astros after the departure of Chris Johnson the season prior. In 152 games, Johnson hit .241/.286/.403 with 25 doubles, 21 homers, 96K:30BB. It was as good as it would get for Full-Time Matt Dominguez...
...because in 2014 Dominguez posted the worst season in Astros history.Because there basically wasn't anyone else who could play 3B at a "major-league level;" meaning the Astros couldn't find someone to not post the worst season ever in franchise history to play third base. Dominguez hit .215/.256/.330 with 125K:29BB. A 65 OPS+. He somehow hit 16 homers, though, with 23 GIDPs. Out of 7,364 Major-League players who had enough PAs, Dominguez's 2014 ranked tied for 7,348th.
2014 Final Line: 607 PAs, .215/.256/.330, 125K:29BB
Have a drink.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label Matt Dominguez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Dominguez. Show all posts
Saturday, March 11, 2017
Sunday, February 19, 2017
Just how "controversial" was Jon Singleton's deal?
Jake Kaplan talked to Jon Singleton yesterday about his removal from the 40-Man roster. Singleton was predictably pragmatic about the transaction after hitting .202/.337/.390 in Fresno...
I kind of just took it for what it is. Obviously I had a down year last year. So I figured that I had some kind of consequence. But it is what it is.
I mean, what's he gonna say? "I should have gotten called up in 2016 at least once?" (That actually may be true, given the struggles the Astros endured at 1B in 2016, but whatever).
Still, Kaplan wrote this intriguing line:
Singleton, 25, is in major league spring training as a non-roster invitee. Under the terms of the controversial five-year extension he signed in June 2014, the left-handed hitting first baseman will make $2 million this season despite no longer being on the major league roster.
So let's talk about the "controversy" surrounding the Singleton deal.
At the time the deal was signed, there was controversy. First, some background: Prior to the 2014 season, Singleton was ranked #82 in Baseball America's prospect rankings. He was ranked #57 by Baseball Prospectus, and #50 by MLB.com. This ranking is two years removed from his 2012 season in Corpus in which he - four years younger than his competition - hit .284/.396/.497.
He mainly spent 2013 between Double-A and Triple-A, missing 50 games due to the now-famous suspension for marijuana. Still, in the linked write-up, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick's lede described Singleton as "a rising star in the organization and the team's first baseman of the future." It was a blip, right? His numbers suffered in 2013 after the suspension, which followed a month-long stay in a rehab facility, hitting .230/.351/.401. As time went on, though, Singleton got better. After cratering in July 2013 (.178/.274/.300), he finished strong to end the 2013 season. From July 31 to the end of the minor-league season Singleton hit .268/.398/.400 - signaling, to me (and maybe others, who knows) that his eye was there, the hit tool and power would soon follow. But there was still work to be done.
Singleton described his journey in March 2014, three months before his extension and subsequent call-up:
At this point, it's pretty evident to me that I'm a drug addict. I don't openly tell everyone that, but it's pretty apparent to myself. I know that I enjoy smoking weed, I enjoy being high, and I can't block that out of my mind that I enjoy that. So I have to work against that.
The deal with the Phillies for Hunter Pence was considered a slam-dunk for the Astros, given Singleton, Cosart, and Domingo Santana's inclusion. Josh Zeid is secondary to the argument. Singleton had a hiccup with the 50-game suspension, but certainly seemed to overcome it in early 2014. Singleton opened the 2014 season with something to prove. When Singleton got called up to Houston - after signing his extension - he was hitting .267/.397/.544. At Triple-A. In his Age 22 season. Half of his hits were for extra-bases.
And so the Astros offered Singleton a deal he, apparently, could not refuse. The guaranteed deal was for 5yrs/$10m. The incentives included in the deal could push it to $35m. It was the first long-term extension for a player with no Major-League experience in baseball history.
But was it controversial?
It didn't sit well around the league. Noted Red-Ass Bud Norris - who didn't play for the Astros at that point - was decidedly not happy.
Wish the (sic) Jon listened to the union and not his agent.
His agent, Matt Sosnick (the subject of a very good book by Jerry Crasnick), also came under fire from another agent, who told Chris Cotillo:
Sosnick is always looking to lock players up to protect himself so his players can't leave. Not in the best interest of the players.
And: Other agents really hate this deal for Singleton, who is repped by Matt Sosnick. "Disaster deal," one said.
So...the "controversy" seems to lie in Singleton leveraging long-term earnings for security. Beyond The Box Score wrote:
This new contract doesn't pay Jon Singleton much more than he'd make with reasonable arbitration predictions, and it pays him little enough that the team will squeeze lots of surplus value out of the guy - potentially by a large amount. If Jon Singleton is a star, then this will be an Evan Longoria/Mike Trout type of steal. If Jon Singleton is another Ike Davis, then this was still probably a great move by the Astros.
FanGraphs wrote:
It goes without saying that this deal is a huge potential boon to the Astros. If Singleton turns out to be a quality player, he would have gone well beyond $35 million in his arbitration years and first free agent season, but if Singleton busts, they're only out $7 or $8 million above and beyond what they would have paid by going year to year.
Both sides have benefited from the Singleton deal. Singleton has made $5.5m to date, and will get $2m in 2017 and 2018, with a $500,000 buyout in 2019. That amount of money is guaranteed. He won't be arbitration-eligible until 2019. So the Astros essentially gave him $9.5m for his pre-arbitration years with $20.5m for three arbitration years. He just has guaranteed money in the bank as opposed to going year-to-year.
Let's also remember the time frame in which the Astros and Singleton signed the deal: They were coming off three straight 100+ loss seasons, including a 2013 that saw 111 losses. It was rock bottom. Yet the Astros had a plan. Let's not forget the reports that the Astros and Dominguez were close on a 5yr/$17m deal at the same time. Three months before signing Singleton, Ken Rosenthal broke that the Astros had offered George Springer a 7yr/$23m deal that would have bought out his arbitration years and one year of free agency.
Had all three players (Singleton, Dominguez, and Springer) taken their respective deals, only the Springer deal would look like a win. Even with Springer's $3.9m salary in 2017 he will have "only" made just over $5m through his first three seasons. Springer is on track to eclipse the Astros' 2013 offer, but will need $18m over the next four years to do it.
Rosenthal was critical of the Astros despite Chris Archer and Yan Gomes signing virtually the same deal with the Rays and Indians, respectively. Archer's deal was "the most guaranteed money" given to a player with less than a year of service time. Fox Sports' Joe Reedy said the Gomes deal was a "win-win for both sides." It was two months before the Singleton deal.
If Singleton never plays in Houston again, he will have received $10m for 420 Major-League plate appearances (no, seriously) with a .171/.290/.331 slash line. No chance he gets $10m in arbitration for that. And there's no amount of league minimum to get to $10m. Singleton won. The Astros were identifying young players to lock up for the next phase of their rebuild. Both sides assume risk: the player, again, gets immediate financial security at the expense of making more in arbitration. The team is giving guaranteed money to unproven players. That's not controversial, it's just a gamble. The "controversy" lies simply in that it was the Astros.
Note: This post gets a massive assist from the invaluable Astros Twitter follow @BigTKirk , who asked the question about how controversial Singleton's deal actually was.
I kind of just took it for what it is. Obviously I had a down year last year. So I figured that I had some kind of consequence. But it is what it is.
I mean, what's he gonna say? "I should have gotten called up in 2016 at least once?" (That actually may be true, given the struggles the Astros endured at 1B in 2016, but whatever).
Still, Kaplan wrote this intriguing line:
Singleton, 25, is in major league spring training as a non-roster invitee. Under the terms of the controversial five-year extension he signed in June 2014, the left-handed hitting first baseman will make $2 million this season despite no longer being on the major league roster.
So let's talk about the "controversy" surrounding the Singleton deal.
At the time the deal was signed, there was controversy. First, some background: Prior to the 2014 season, Singleton was ranked #82 in Baseball America's prospect rankings. He was ranked #57 by Baseball Prospectus, and #50 by MLB.com. This ranking is two years removed from his 2012 season in Corpus in which he - four years younger than his competition - hit .284/.396/.497.
He mainly spent 2013 between Double-A and Triple-A, missing 50 games due to the now-famous suspension for marijuana. Still, in the linked write-up, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick's lede described Singleton as "a rising star in the organization and the team's first baseman of the future." It was a blip, right? His numbers suffered in 2013 after the suspension, which followed a month-long stay in a rehab facility, hitting .230/.351/.401. As time went on, though, Singleton got better. After cratering in July 2013 (.178/.274/.300), he finished strong to end the 2013 season. From July 31 to the end of the minor-league season Singleton hit .268/.398/.400 - signaling, to me (and maybe others, who knows) that his eye was there, the hit tool and power would soon follow. But there was still work to be done.
Singleton described his journey in March 2014, three months before his extension and subsequent call-up:
At this point, it's pretty evident to me that I'm a drug addict. I don't openly tell everyone that, but it's pretty apparent to myself. I know that I enjoy smoking weed, I enjoy being high, and I can't block that out of my mind that I enjoy that. So I have to work against that.
The deal with the Phillies for Hunter Pence was considered a slam-dunk for the Astros, given Singleton, Cosart, and Domingo Santana's inclusion. Josh Zeid is secondary to the argument. Singleton had a hiccup with the 50-game suspension, but certainly seemed to overcome it in early 2014. Singleton opened the 2014 season with something to prove. When Singleton got called up to Houston - after signing his extension - he was hitting .267/.397/.544. At Triple-A. In his Age 22 season. Half of his hits were for extra-bases.
And so the Astros offered Singleton a deal he, apparently, could not refuse. The guaranteed deal was for 5yrs/$10m. The incentives included in the deal could push it to $35m. It was the first long-term extension for a player with no Major-League experience in baseball history.
But was it controversial?
It didn't sit well around the league. Noted Red-Ass Bud Norris - who didn't play for the Astros at that point - was decidedly not happy.
Wish the (sic) Jon listened to the union and not his agent.
His agent, Matt Sosnick (the subject of a very good book by Jerry Crasnick), also came under fire from another agent, who told Chris Cotillo:
Sosnick is always looking to lock players up to protect himself so his players can't leave. Not in the best interest of the players.
And: Other agents really hate this deal for Singleton, who is repped by Matt Sosnick. "Disaster deal," one said.
So...the "controversy" seems to lie in Singleton leveraging long-term earnings for security. Beyond The Box Score wrote:
This new contract doesn't pay Jon Singleton much more than he'd make with reasonable arbitration predictions, and it pays him little enough that the team will squeeze lots of surplus value out of the guy - potentially by a large amount. If Jon Singleton is a star, then this will be an Evan Longoria/Mike Trout type of steal. If Jon Singleton is another Ike Davis, then this was still probably a great move by the Astros.
FanGraphs wrote:
It goes without saying that this deal is a huge potential boon to the Astros. If Singleton turns out to be a quality player, he would have gone well beyond $35 million in his arbitration years and first free agent season, but if Singleton busts, they're only out $7 or $8 million above and beyond what they would have paid by going year to year.
Both sides have benefited from the Singleton deal. Singleton has made $5.5m to date, and will get $2m in 2017 and 2018, with a $500,000 buyout in 2019. That amount of money is guaranteed. He won't be arbitration-eligible until 2019. So the Astros essentially gave him $9.5m for his pre-arbitration years with $20.5m for three arbitration years. He just has guaranteed money in the bank as opposed to going year-to-year.
Let's also remember the time frame in which the Astros and Singleton signed the deal: They were coming off three straight 100+ loss seasons, including a 2013 that saw 111 losses. It was rock bottom. Yet the Astros had a plan. Let's not forget the reports that the Astros and Dominguez were close on a 5yr/$17m deal at the same time. Three months before signing Singleton, Ken Rosenthal broke that the Astros had offered George Springer a 7yr/$23m deal that would have bought out his arbitration years and one year of free agency.
Had all three players (Singleton, Dominguez, and Springer) taken their respective deals, only the Springer deal would look like a win. Even with Springer's $3.9m salary in 2017 he will have "only" made just over $5m through his first three seasons. Springer is on track to eclipse the Astros' 2013 offer, but will need $18m over the next four years to do it.
Rosenthal was critical of the Astros despite Chris Archer and Yan Gomes signing virtually the same deal with the Rays and Indians, respectively. Archer's deal was "the most guaranteed money" given to a player with less than a year of service time. Fox Sports' Joe Reedy said the Gomes deal was a "win-win for both sides." It was two months before the Singleton deal.
If Singleton never plays in Houston again, he will have received $10m for 420 Major-League plate appearances (no, seriously) with a .171/.290/.331 slash line. No chance he gets $10m in arbitration for that. And there's no amount of league minimum to get to $10m. Singleton won. The Astros were identifying young players to lock up for the next phase of their rebuild. Both sides assume risk: the player, again, gets immediate financial security at the expense of making more in arbitration. The team is giving guaranteed money to unproven players. That's not controversial, it's just a gamble. The "controversy" lies simply in that it was the Astros.
Note: This post gets a massive assist from the invaluable Astros Twitter follow @BigTKirk , who asked the question about how controversial Singleton's deal actually was.
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
Tuesday Morning Hot Links
So the Astros lost because Chris Sale was Chris Sale and the Astros offense was the Astros offense, of late. Jonathan Villar has ping-pong paddles for hands and Avisail Garcia banged an oppo two-run homer. What can you do? Still, the Astros' postseason odds (according to FanGraphs) actually went up. In addition, the Astros' 6.1% chance of winning the World Series is the 2nd-highest in the AL and 5th-highest in baseball.
*Chris Sale became the first pitcher in MLB history to strike out 12+ batters in three consecutive starts since Pedro did it in 2001.
*Matty D to Matty DFA: Matt Dominguez was DFA'd to make room on the 40-Man for Correa.
Let's get to the hot links...
*Mike Elias reflected on the 2012 draft.
*Beyond the Box Score looks at the additions of Correa and Velasquez.
*Alex Bregman just wants to help the team win, in this New Orleans Advocate profile.
*Kyle Tucker, seven years younger than Preston, would really like to play on the same team as his brother.
*By picking Bregman, Tucker, Cameron and Eshelman, Yahoo declares the Astros the winners of the first day of the draft:
If things pencil out in the best way, this should be enough for Houston to forget its 2014 draft debacle...what the Astros pulled off on Day 1 of the draft was quite impressive and it could leave them in a good place for years to come.
*Jon Heyman:
Cameron might be the coup here, and it was made possible by the Astros' $17.29 million draft allotment. It isn't certain what Cameron will receive, but the Astros figure to have the financial firepower to get it done.
*Phil Rogers: Monday night was just the start of something big for the Astros
*Altuve didn't know who was more excited about Correa's debut: Altuve or Correa.
*Cleveland's director of scouting, Brad Grant, did not talk to the Astros in advance of selecting Brady Aiken with the 17th overall pick.
*Roy Oswalt is now an agent, and still has the tractor.
*Chris Sale became the first pitcher in MLB history to strike out 12+ batters in three consecutive starts since Pedro did it in 2001.
*Matty D to Matty DFA: Matt Dominguez was DFA'd to make room on the 40-Man for Correa.
Let's get to the hot links...
*Mike Elias reflected on the 2012 draft.
*Beyond the Box Score looks at the additions of Correa and Velasquez.
*Alex Bregman just wants to help the team win, in this New Orleans Advocate profile.
*Kyle Tucker, seven years younger than Preston, would really like to play on the same team as his brother.
*By picking Bregman, Tucker, Cameron and Eshelman, Yahoo declares the Astros the winners of the first day of the draft:
If things pencil out in the best way, this should be enough for Houston to forget its 2014 draft debacle...what the Astros pulled off on Day 1 of the draft was quite impressive and it could leave them in a good place for years to come.
*Jon Heyman:
Cameron might be the coup here, and it was made possible by the Astros' $17.29 million draft allotment. It isn't certain what Cameron will receive, but the Astros figure to have the financial firepower to get it done.
*Phil Rogers: Monday night was just the start of something big for the Astros
*Altuve didn't know who was more excited about Correa's debut: Altuve or Correa.
*Cleveland's director of scouting, Brad Grant, did not talk to the Astros in advance of selecting Brady Aiken with the 17th overall pick.
*Roy Oswalt is now an agent, and still has the tractor.
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
PreStros Morning Report: May 19
TL;DR
*Org goes 4-0 on the night; 99-57 cumulative record.
*Runs and hits and runs and hits. Fresno wins 12-2 behind Matt Dominguez's 5x5 night; Jon Singleton's 4x5 night, Domingo Santana's two homers, and Carlos Correa's first Triple-A home run.
*Corpus got an unearned run-less start from Vince Velasquez and 3RBI from Jon Kemmer in a 6-2 win over San Antonio.
*Lancaster scored once in the bottom of the 9th and got the walk-off in the 12th for an 8-7 win over High Desert.
*Almost literally all Quad Cities does is win. Derek Fisher hit three doubles, Nick Tanielu knocked in three runs, and the River Bandits won their 19th of their last 22 games.
Fresno (22-17)
Good LAWD. Fresno hammered out 12 runs on 19 hits off El Paso, and the Grizzlies cruised to a 12-2 win over the Chihuahuas. Asher Wojciechowski threw 5.2IP, 5H/2ER, 2K:2BB for the win; Richard Rodriguez allowed a hit, striking out four, in 2.1IP; Jason Stoffel struck out one in the 9th.
Crazy thing is, the Grizzlies were only 2x9 w/RISP - they just hit four doubles and six home runs. Matt Dominguez was 5x5 with a double and a solo homer; Jon Singleton was 4x5 with a double and an RBI; Domingo Santana was 2x5 with two home runs and 3RBI; Carlos Correa hit his first Triple-A homer, going 2x6 with 2RBI; Robbie Grossman (2RBI) and L.J. Hoes were each 2x6 with a homer. Luis Flores was 2x5 with a double and 2RBI, and Joe Sclafani was 0x3 with two walks.
Man of the Match: Matt Dominguez, who - with a single, double, and a homer - was just a second girl short of a threesome.
Corpus (26-12)
San Antonio had the briefest of 2-0 leads in the top of the 3rd, but Corpus erased that and tacked on to it in the bottom half on the way to a 6-2 win. Vince Velasquez threw 5.1IP, 5H/2R (0ER), 4K:1BB; Mitch Lambson threw 2.2IP, 0H/0ER, 2K:0BB; and Travis Ballew gave up two hits but allowed no runs in the 9th.
Jon Kemmer was 2x4 with two doubles and 3RBI; Chan Moon and Tony Kemp were each 2x3 with a walk; Telvin Nash hit his 7th homer of the season and drew a walk. Leo Heras was 1x3 with a walk and two stolen bases.
Man of the Match: Vince Velasquez
Lancaster (20-19)
Crazy one, as usual, in Lancaster as there were five lead changes resulting in a 7-6 High Desert lead in the bottom of the 9th. A Brett Booth sac fly sent the game to extras and a J.D. Davis bases-loaded single to right provided the walk-off run in an 8-7 victory. Michael Feliz threw 4.2IP, 5H/5ER, 4K:1BB; Keegan Yuhl allowed 4H/2ER, 3K:1BB in 1.2IP; Chris Cotton inherited a bases-loaded jam and got out of it with 2.1IP, 0H/0ER, 4K:2BB; Albert Minnis allowed 1H/0ER, 3K:2BB in 3.1IP.
Danry Vasquez was 4x6 with a home run, walk, and 2RBI; A.J. Reed was 3x5 with a double, homer, walk, and an RBI; Jack Mayfield was 2x5 with a walk; Brett Phillips went 1x5 with two walks; Brett Booth went 1x3 with the game-tying RBI and two walks.
Man of the Match: Danry Vasquez
Quad Cities (31-8)
Just ridiculous. After starting the season at a solid 12-5, the River Bandits have gone 19-3 in their last 22 games, including last night's 8-5 win at Clinton. Francis Martes threw 4IP, 2H/1ER, 5K:3BB; Kevin Comer allowed 7H/4ER, 2K:2BB in 4.2IP; and Aaron Greenwood got a strikeout for the last out of the game.
Derek Fisher was 3x5 with three doubles; Nick Tanielu was 2x4 with a triple and 3RBI; Jamie Ritchie (2B, 2RBI), Mott Hyde (BB), and Ryan Bottger (RBI) each added two hits.
Man of the Match: Derek Fisher
*Org goes 4-0 on the night; 99-57 cumulative record.
*Runs and hits and runs and hits. Fresno wins 12-2 behind Matt Dominguez's 5x5 night; Jon Singleton's 4x5 night, Domingo Santana's two homers, and Carlos Correa's first Triple-A home run.
*Corpus got an unearned run-less start from Vince Velasquez and 3RBI from Jon Kemmer in a 6-2 win over San Antonio.
*Lancaster scored once in the bottom of the 9th and got the walk-off in the 12th for an 8-7 win over High Desert.
*Almost literally all Quad Cities does is win. Derek Fisher hit three doubles, Nick Tanielu knocked in three runs, and the River Bandits won their 19th of their last 22 games.
Fresno (22-17)
Good LAWD. Fresno hammered out 12 runs on 19 hits off El Paso, and the Grizzlies cruised to a 12-2 win over the Chihuahuas. Asher Wojciechowski threw 5.2IP, 5H/2ER, 2K:2BB for the win; Richard Rodriguez allowed a hit, striking out four, in 2.1IP; Jason Stoffel struck out one in the 9th.
Crazy thing is, the Grizzlies were only 2x9 w/RISP - they just hit four doubles and six home runs. Matt Dominguez was 5x5 with a double and a solo homer; Jon Singleton was 4x5 with a double and an RBI; Domingo Santana was 2x5 with two home runs and 3RBI; Carlos Correa hit his first Triple-A homer, going 2x6 with 2RBI; Robbie Grossman (2RBI) and L.J. Hoes were each 2x6 with a homer. Luis Flores was 2x5 with a double and 2RBI, and Joe Sclafani was 0x3 with two walks.
Man of the Match: Matt Dominguez, who - with a single, double, and a homer - was just a second girl short of a threesome.
Corpus (26-12)
San Antonio had the briefest of 2-0 leads in the top of the 3rd, but Corpus erased that and tacked on to it in the bottom half on the way to a 6-2 win. Vince Velasquez threw 5.1IP, 5H/2R (0ER), 4K:1BB; Mitch Lambson threw 2.2IP, 0H/0ER, 2K:0BB; and Travis Ballew gave up two hits but allowed no runs in the 9th.
Jon Kemmer was 2x4 with two doubles and 3RBI; Chan Moon and Tony Kemp were each 2x3 with a walk; Telvin Nash hit his 7th homer of the season and drew a walk. Leo Heras was 1x3 with a walk and two stolen bases.
Man of the Match: Vince Velasquez
Lancaster (20-19)
Crazy one, as usual, in Lancaster as there were five lead changes resulting in a 7-6 High Desert lead in the bottom of the 9th. A Brett Booth sac fly sent the game to extras and a J.D. Davis bases-loaded single to right provided the walk-off run in an 8-7 victory. Michael Feliz threw 4.2IP, 5H/5ER, 4K:1BB; Keegan Yuhl allowed 4H/2ER, 3K:1BB in 1.2IP; Chris Cotton inherited a bases-loaded jam and got out of it with 2.1IP, 0H/0ER, 4K:2BB; Albert Minnis allowed 1H/0ER, 3K:2BB in 3.1IP.
Danry Vasquez was 4x6 with a home run, walk, and 2RBI; A.J. Reed was 3x5 with a double, homer, walk, and an RBI; Jack Mayfield was 2x5 with a walk; Brett Phillips went 1x5 with two walks; Brett Booth went 1x3 with the game-tying RBI and two walks.
Man of the Match: Danry Vasquez
Quad Cities (31-8)
Just ridiculous. After starting the season at a solid 12-5, the River Bandits have gone 19-3 in their last 22 games, including last night's 8-5 win at Clinton. Francis Martes threw 4IP, 2H/1ER, 5K:3BB; Kevin Comer allowed 7H/4ER, 2K:2BB in 4.2IP; and Aaron Greenwood got a strikeout for the last out of the game.
Derek Fisher was 3x5 with three doubles; Nick Tanielu was 2x4 with a triple and 3RBI; Jamie Ritchie (2B, 2RBI), Mott Hyde (BB), and Ryan Bottger (RBI) each added two hits.
Man of the Match: Derek Fisher
Saturday, May 2, 2015
Hoes Down, Chapman Up, plus Jed Lowrie's Injury.
L.J. Hoes was optioned to AAA after the first game of the Mariners series, with lefty relieved Kevin Chapman being summonsed to take his place. The Mariners lean left in their batting lineup, so this move is totally understandable. Remember when the Astros were fiddling with their starting rotation a year ago to get lefty starters to throw against the Mariners? In the meantime, the Astros will play with a 3-man bench with plenty of positional flexibility - Conger, Grossman, Villar and González are all switch hitters, with the latter two having played nearly every position on the diamond and one of the two are expected to start at short in some kind of semi-platoon.
Lowrie's injury got me thinking. Firstly, about how good the Lowrie contract was in the offseason. When he departed in 2013 - after being acquired for a mercurial reliever - he had rebuilt his value with nearly 400 solid plate appearances on a bad team. He raked for a middle infielder in 2013 over 154 games for Oakland (119 OPS+), and when he entered 2014, I wondered whether the Yankees would tab him as the interim replacement for DJ2, and offer him boatloads of cash in the process. But his play in 2014 was not great, and it may have cost him a fair bit in contract money, but 3-and-23 is still an absolute bargain. Especially when the guy mashes to a 179 OPS+ through the first 12% of the season.
Secondly, Lowrie is out until after the ASB, and he is going to rejoin the team as a fresh set of legs with around 2-and-one-half of the season to go. If there are no lingering issues to his thumb - and there probably shouldn't be - then he will at least serve as a solid stretch-run addition. Neither González or Villar is going to be a total naught at shortstop, and Lowrie has been unsustainably hot so the regression monster was starting to take an interest. Perhaps the drop off in production could be less than first thought.
And while we are acknowledging the glass-half-full opinion of Lowrie's injury, it seems reasonable to look at how the Astros could use the DL time and roster spot to their best advantage. No one seemed surprised when Jonathan Villar was called up - and they shouldn't have been - because he remains the logical replacement. He has experience, positional flexibility, is a switch hitter, and a month ago was in the midst of a solid spring. He also needs reps at the ML level to see what kind of player he will become, and the Astros would be wise to give him that opportunity now, lest they are forced to cut bait at some time in the future with that question unanswered. Villar can do stuff on the field that other people simply can't, and I seem to remember that around a year ago, he was leading the Astros starters in slugging. What I am trying to saw is that his ceiling is significant.
So Villar was always going to get the call up, although fans could be forgiven for being disappointed that the computer didn't spit out Carlos Correa's name. Delay Correa's call up until this time next year (which would be developmentally very forgivable) and you get control until after the World Series in 2021. Call him up now - and if you can't realistically return him to the minors because of solid performance - and you move his free-agency date to late 2020. With the team winning as it is, and with a Villar-like candidate with his service clock already ticking, Correa wasn't ever coming up.
L.J. Hoes was called up for the series in the NL ballpark to allow for more of a pinch hitting option. He was hot in AAA (.418/.458/.658 in a hitter-friendly league), but he only managed one plate appearance and one pinch-running appearance over the series. With Sam Deduno starting - and likely to be restricted to around 60 pitches for this start - and with the pitchers hitting back in Houston, a 4-man bench is a luxury. So the extra lefty reliever in Chapman was summonsed to counter the Mariners' lefty leaning lineup.
So, all pretty logical to this point, huh?? But Sam Deduno is (i) either going to return to being a long reliever or (ii) going to be stretched out to start full time and an extra arm won't be needed in the 'pen. Either way, in a month or so, the fifth starter spot will hopefully be much clearer and someone who can carry a decent pitch load. Either Obie or Peacock will be back, or Wojo would have benefitted from his time in AAA, or Deduno's name will appear in more permanent ink on the lineup card in the fifth starter slot. So perhaps a four man bench in AL ballparks will become more defensible.
Assuming Conger and Grossman remain permanent bench players, and González and Hoes share shortstop duties, how could the Astros use this extra slot? There are a number of interesting possibilities. Preston Tucker is tearing up AAA right now, but he isn't on the 40-man, so another move would need to be made. L.J. Hoes could pop back up and get more of a chance to mash. Domingo Santana is another outfield possibility, and everyone remembers his time in the Majors from last year. Jon Singleton is hitting .243/.369/.514 with four jacks, so perhaps he could get a look. Nolan Fontana bats lefty, plays short, and is hitting .250/.394/.411, so he could be a possibility if Villar struggles (but isn't on the 40-man either, so a corresponding move would need to be made). Joe Sclafani is a switch-hitter with positional flexibility, so he could get a look for a month or so, but this is becoming more of a long-shot with every name mentioned.
In terms of corresponding transactions, the guy on the 40-man who is at AAA who isn't performing well is our old friend, Matt Dominguez. He has played 16 games, and is hitting .250/.299/.317 with no home runs. I would hate to see Matty D leave the organisation, mostly because of how he would gently lays the bat down and trot around the bases at a good clip on home run balls. Even if he crushed it and it was a massive home run in the context of the game, he always acted the same. Showboating wasn't really his style, and when a guy is struggling in the majors and isn't taking the opportunity to show people up, then that earns some respect from me.
Of course, Matty D may be working on something very specific with the hitting coaches, and his number may have taken a hit on the basis that he is in an adjustment phase. Numbers don't tell the whole story, and the Astros have been a scouting-savvy organisation recently, despite their reputation as ruthless number-crunchers. There may be a plan with Matt D that I know nothing about - that would not surprise me at all. The possibility of an adjustment may protect Matt somewhat.
This entry has gotten too long again, but I hope that my point has been made. Jed's injury will keep him out for 2-3 months, and the first month or so of that will probably involve a short bench. However, once the fifth starter - swingman areas of the pitching staff sort themselves out, the Astros have all sorts of tantalising options. These include a number of guys that need a few months in the majors to see what they could become as players. This list includes both guys that have seen The Show before (Hoes, Santana and Singleton) plus guys currently knocking on the door, that may need to be added to the 40-man. A roster spot may have to be created, and Matty D looks to be at the stage of his career where he needs to hit better, or he may be struggling for a job.
Either way, the presence of too many players for too few roster spots on a first-place team is something that Astros fans should relish.
Lowrie's injury got me thinking. Firstly, about how good the Lowrie contract was in the offseason. When he departed in 2013 - after being acquired for a mercurial reliever - he had rebuilt his value with nearly 400 solid plate appearances on a bad team. He raked for a middle infielder in 2013 over 154 games for Oakland (119 OPS+), and when he entered 2014, I wondered whether the Yankees would tab him as the interim replacement for DJ2, and offer him boatloads of cash in the process. But his play in 2014 was not great, and it may have cost him a fair bit in contract money, but 3-and-23 is still an absolute bargain. Especially when the guy mashes to a 179 OPS+ through the first 12% of the season.
Secondly, Lowrie is out until after the ASB, and he is going to rejoin the team as a fresh set of legs with around 2-and-one-half of the season to go. If there are no lingering issues to his thumb - and there probably shouldn't be - then he will at least serve as a solid stretch-run addition. Neither González or Villar is going to be a total naught at shortstop, and Lowrie has been unsustainably hot so the regression monster was starting to take an interest. Perhaps the drop off in production could be less than first thought.
And while we are acknowledging the glass-half-full opinion of Lowrie's injury, it seems reasonable to look at how the Astros could use the DL time and roster spot to their best advantage. No one seemed surprised when Jonathan Villar was called up - and they shouldn't have been - because he remains the logical replacement. He has experience, positional flexibility, is a switch hitter, and a month ago was in the midst of a solid spring. He also needs reps at the ML level to see what kind of player he will become, and the Astros would be wise to give him that opportunity now, lest they are forced to cut bait at some time in the future with that question unanswered. Villar can do stuff on the field that other people simply can't, and I seem to remember that around a year ago, he was leading the Astros starters in slugging. What I am trying to saw is that his ceiling is significant.
So Villar was always going to get the call up, although fans could be forgiven for being disappointed that the computer didn't spit out Carlos Correa's name. Delay Correa's call up until this time next year (which would be developmentally very forgivable) and you get control until after the World Series in 2021. Call him up now - and if you can't realistically return him to the minors because of solid performance - and you move his free-agency date to late 2020. With the team winning as it is, and with a Villar-like candidate with his service clock already ticking, Correa wasn't ever coming up.
L.J. Hoes was called up for the series in the NL ballpark to allow for more of a pinch hitting option. He was hot in AAA (.418/.458/.658 in a hitter-friendly league), but he only managed one plate appearance and one pinch-running appearance over the series. With Sam Deduno starting - and likely to be restricted to around 60 pitches for this start - and with the pitchers hitting back in Houston, a 4-man bench is a luxury. So the extra lefty reliever in Chapman was summonsed to counter the Mariners' lefty leaning lineup.
So, all pretty logical to this point, huh?? But Sam Deduno is (i) either going to return to being a long reliever or (ii) going to be stretched out to start full time and an extra arm won't be needed in the 'pen. Either way, in a month or so, the fifth starter spot will hopefully be much clearer and someone who can carry a decent pitch load. Either Obie or Peacock will be back, or Wojo would have benefitted from his time in AAA, or Deduno's name will appear in more permanent ink on the lineup card in the fifth starter slot. So perhaps a four man bench in AL ballparks will become more defensible.
Assuming Conger and Grossman remain permanent bench players, and González and Hoes share shortstop duties, how could the Astros use this extra slot? There are a number of interesting possibilities. Preston Tucker is tearing up AAA right now, but he isn't on the 40-man, so another move would need to be made. L.J. Hoes could pop back up and get more of a chance to mash. Domingo Santana is another outfield possibility, and everyone remembers his time in the Majors from last year. Jon Singleton is hitting .243/.369/.514 with four jacks, so perhaps he could get a look. Nolan Fontana bats lefty, plays short, and is hitting .250/.394/.411, so he could be a possibility if Villar struggles (but isn't on the 40-man either, so a corresponding move would need to be made). Joe Sclafani is a switch-hitter with positional flexibility, so he could get a look for a month or so, but this is becoming more of a long-shot with every name mentioned.
In terms of corresponding transactions, the guy on the 40-man who is at AAA who isn't performing well is our old friend, Matt Dominguez. He has played 16 games, and is hitting .250/.299/.317 with no home runs. I would hate to see Matty D leave the organisation, mostly because of how he would gently lays the bat down and trot around the bases at a good clip on home run balls. Even if he crushed it and it was a massive home run in the context of the game, he always acted the same. Showboating wasn't really his style, and when a guy is struggling in the majors and isn't taking the opportunity to show people up, then that earns some respect from me.
Of course, Matty D may be working on something very specific with the hitting coaches, and his number may have taken a hit on the basis that he is in an adjustment phase. Numbers don't tell the whole story, and the Astros have been a scouting-savvy organisation recently, despite their reputation as ruthless number-crunchers. There may be a plan with Matt D that I know nothing about - that would not surprise me at all. The possibility of an adjustment may protect Matt somewhat.
This entry has gotten too long again, but I hope that my point has been made. Jed's injury will keep him out for 2-3 months, and the first month or so of that will probably involve a short bench. However, once the fifth starter - swingman areas of the pitching staff sort themselves out, the Astros have all sorts of tantalising options. These include a number of guys that need a few months in the majors to see what they could become as players. This list includes both guys that have seen The Show before (Hoes, Santana and Singleton) plus guys currently knocking on the door, that may need to be added to the 40-man. A roster spot may have to be created, and Matty D looks to be at the stage of his career where he needs to hit better, or he may be struggling for a job.
Either way, the presence of too many players for too few roster spots on a first-place team is something that Astros fans should relish.
Friday, April 10, 2015
Friday Morning Link Dump
Hear's wot u knead to no on this Friday:
*Luhnow told MLB Network Radio yesterday that he wouldn't hesitate to call-up Carlos Correa or Mark Appel straight from Corpus, "if the need arises."
*12,000 (!) fans showed up to the Fresno Grizzlies' opener last night.
*Fresno Manager Tony DeFrancesco had Jon Singleton and Matt Dominguez hitting 6th and 8th, respectively, as a chance for them "to figure it out." DeFrancesco: "Eventually, they're all going to tell me where they're hitting."
*34-year old former Houston minor-leaguer Jose Capellan was found dead in his hotel room. In 2009, Capellan threw 98IP for Round Rock.
*Luhnow told MLB Network Radio yesterday that he wouldn't hesitate to call-up Carlos Correa or Mark Appel straight from Corpus, "if the need arises."
*12,000 (!) fans showed up to the Fresno Grizzlies' opener last night.
*Fresno Manager Tony DeFrancesco had Jon Singleton and Matt Dominguez hitting 6th and 8th, respectively, as a chance for them "to figure it out." DeFrancesco: "Eventually, they're all going to tell me where they're hitting."
*34-year old former Houston minor-leaguer Jose Capellan was found dead in his hotel room. In 2009, Capellan threw 98IP for Round Rock.
Monday, March 30, 2015
Eight More Depart for Minor League Camp
The Astros have cut eight more from their Spring Training squad, reassigning Carlos Correa, Darin Downs, Tyler Heineman, James Hoyt and Gregorio Petit while optioning Jake Buchanan, Matt Dominguez and Max Stassi.
Downs, Hoyt, Heineman and Petit will all remain with the team for the exhibition part of Spring Training
The Astros now have 32 players in camp. Their last cut reduced them to 41 players, then Dan Johnson departed via trade to reduce that to 40.
These cuts clear up a couple of position battles that were becoming kind of obvious anyhow. Firstly, at catcher, Castro and Conger will split the catching duties (with Gattis available only for emergencies given he has yet to appear behind the plate in the Spring Training game). No surprise there, although Stassi could encourage the Astros to make a trade with a strong year at Fresno. Stassi logged 19 plate appearances, walking three times and striking out twice. He managed 6 hits, including 2 doubles and a home run. If he needed a good offensive season, this was a reasonable start - small sample size be damned.
Secondly, Valbuena looks poised to assume the third base duties, which has been becoming increasingly obvious for a while as well. Valbuena has the huge advantage of swinging from the left side of the dish, which helps address the Astros' struggles against right-handed pitching last year. Additionally, Dominguez had a horror 2014 which resulted in a WAR well into negative figures. He looked lost at the plate at times last year, swinging a pitches out of the strike zone as well as having contact issues with pitches inside the strike zone.
In Spring Training this year, Matty D had 38 plate appearances, walking twice, striking out 5 times, and hitting 9 singles. His triple-slash of .250/.282/.250 looks similar to the 2014 regular season, except for the total lack of power. So Valbuena gets the third base job to start the season, and Dominguez appears ticketed for the minors. The real question is whether Dominguez can hold his 40-man roster spot - especially if Joe Thatcher and/or Roberto Hernandez make the 25-man roster. My pick is that he does hold his roster spot until at least mid-season-ish.
Correa and Heineman had no real chance of making the team by virtue of their relatively junior status. I was watching when Correa effortlessly drove a curveball that he was out on front of over the LF fence against the Phillies the other day. Correa had 43 plate appearances, walked twice and struck out 10 times, and had 14 hits, of which 1 was a double and two were home runs. I am looking forward to watching him everyday in the majors, perhaps as soon as later this year.
Heineman was unsurprisingly used sparingly in Spring Traning - if he is the catcher of the future, then he is a wee way away, after all. He had 7 plate appearances, and recorded a double against no strikeouts and no walks. His focus was not really on his hitting this Spring - he was more in camp to learn how to work with the pitching staff and get tips from the older guys.
Hoyt, Buchanan and Downs had an opportunity to add their names to a crowded 'pen situation, but all represent easy cuts for the Astros to make.
James Hoyt has not yet made the the majors, so the chances were that he was always going to be cut prior to the roster being set. He equipped himself well, pitching 8.1 innings in 7 games, allowing 8 baserunners (3 hits and 5 walks) while striking out 11.
Jake Buchanan was also an easy cut because he seems - and always seemed - destined to be shuttling between the majors and minors this season. He also threw 8.1 innings pitched, but gave up 7R / 5ER on 12 hits and 3 walks against 4 strikeouts. He was doing well until he had one bad outing, I seem to remember, but he has marginal stuff and needs to locate his pitches to be effective.
Darin Downs was on the outside-looking-in from early in spring training, thanks to the offseason additions of Thatcher (in the LOOGY role) and the various other additions like Straily and Hernandez in the starting role. He struggled in a small sample: 4.2IP, 11 hits and 4 walks, 7 runs / earned runs, and 3 strikeouts. Downs can pitch better than that, and will have an opportunity to work it all out at Fresno.
Finally, Gregorio Petit lost out on a battle for a utility job thanks to the combined efforts of Marwin Gonzalez - who has been a solid bench guy for the Astros for a couple of seasons - and Jonathan Villar - whose demise has been greatly exaggerated.
Petit managed 27 plate appearances, recorded 8 hits, walked 3 times, and struck out five. He hit two doubles. Petit did his stock no harm at all, and will be a very useful AAA depth-piece for the Astros going forward.
The next cut will be the big one, and will probably occur shortly. At least this year, the Astros have actual competition, and actual options.
Stay posted.
Downs, Hoyt, Heineman and Petit will all remain with the team for the exhibition part of Spring Training
The Astros now have 32 players in camp. Their last cut reduced them to 41 players, then Dan Johnson departed via trade to reduce that to 40.
These cuts clear up a couple of position battles that were becoming kind of obvious anyhow. Firstly, at catcher, Castro and Conger will split the catching duties (with Gattis available only for emergencies given he has yet to appear behind the plate in the Spring Training game). No surprise there, although Stassi could encourage the Astros to make a trade with a strong year at Fresno. Stassi logged 19 plate appearances, walking three times and striking out twice. He managed 6 hits, including 2 doubles and a home run. If he needed a good offensive season, this was a reasonable start - small sample size be damned.
Secondly, Valbuena looks poised to assume the third base duties, which has been becoming increasingly obvious for a while as well. Valbuena has the huge advantage of swinging from the left side of the dish, which helps address the Astros' struggles against right-handed pitching last year. Additionally, Dominguez had a horror 2014 which resulted in a WAR well into negative figures. He looked lost at the plate at times last year, swinging a pitches out of the strike zone as well as having contact issues with pitches inside the strike zone.
In Spring Training this year, Matty D had 38 plate appearances, walking twice, striking out 5 times, and hitting 9 singles. His triple-slash of .250/.282/.250 looks similar to the 2014 regular season, except for the total lack of power. So Valbuena gets the third base job to start the season, and Dominguez appears ticketed for the minors. The real question is whether Dominguez can hold his 40-man roster spot - especially if Joe Thatcher and/or Roberto Hernandez make the 25-man roster. My pick is that he does hold his roster spot until at least mid-season-ish.
Correa and Heineman had no real chance of making the team by virtue of their relatively junior status. I was watching when Correa effortlessly drove a curveball that he was out on front of over the LF fence against the Phillies the other day. Correa had 43 plate appearances, walked twice and struck out 10 times, and had 14 hits, of which 1 was a double and two were home runs. I am looking forward to watching him everyday in the majors, perhaps as soon as later this year.
Heineman was unsurprisingly used sparingly in Spring Traning - if he is the catcher of the future, then he is a wee way away, after all. He had 7 plate appearances, and recorded a double against no strikeouts and no walks. His focus was not really on his hitting this Spring - he was more in camp to learn how to work with the pitching staff and get tips from the older guys.
Hoyt, Buchanan and Downs had an opportunity to add their names to a crowded 'pen situation, but all represent easy cuts for the Astros to make.
James Hoyt has not yet made the the majors, so the chances were that he was always going to be cut prior to the roster being set. He equipped himself well, pitching 8.1 innings in 7 games, allowing 8 baserunners (3 hits and 5 walks) while striking out 11.
Jake Buchanan was also an easy cut because he seems - and always seemed - destined to be shuttling between the majors and minors this season. He also threw 8.1 innings pitched, but gave up 7R / 5ER on 12 hits and 3 walks against 4 strikeouts. He was doing well until he had one bad outing, I seem to remember, but he has marginal stuff and needs to locate his pitches to be effective.
Darin Downs was on the outside-looking-in from early in spring training, thanks to the offseason additions of Thatcher (in the LOOGY role) and the various other additions like Straily and Hernandez in the starting role. He struggled in a small sample: 4.2IP, 11 hits and 4 walks, 7 runs / earned runs, and 3 strikeouts. Downs can pitch better than that, and will have an opportunity to work it all out at Fresno.
Finally, Gregorio Petit lost out on a battle for a utility job thanks to the combined efforts of Marwin Gonzalez - who has been a solid bench guy for the Astros for a couple of seasons - and Jonathan Villar - whose demise has been greatly exaggerated.
Petit managed 27 plate appearances, recorded 8 hits, walked 3 times, and struck out five. He hit two doubles. Petit did his stock no harm at all, and will be a very useful AAA depth-piece for the Astros going forward.
The next cut will be the big one, and will probably occur shortly. At least this year, the Astros have actual competition, and actual options.
Stay posted.
Friday, December 19, 2014
Friday Morning Link Dump
It's 108 days until Opening Day
*Jed Lowrie feels as though Minute Maid Park is "tailor-made" for him, what with that seven-foot tall right field wall.
*Jeff Luhnow, on 3B:
Matt Dominguez has a chance to be a very good player. Two years ago he proved that. Last year, he slid back a little bit. We're going to give him every opportunity to win that job, but we also have to protect ourselves as an organization. Marwin is still with us, and Marwin could end up being our third baseman.
*Jose Altuve is one of the Washington Post's Breakout Stars of 2014.
*The Astros Caravan will be from January 20-23 with stops in Houston, Brownsville, Austin, and Corpus, and FanFest is on January 24.
*Rough day to be a former Astros pitcher in the A's organization: Fernando Rodriguez was DFA'd and Jorge De Leon was released.
*They started cleaning The Astrodome.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Congratulations Giants: Hello Offseason
Any reasonable baseball fan would know that the World Series concluded in spectacular fashion last night, on a popup with the tying run standing 90 feet away. The Giants again do what the Giants do - play solid baseball as a team, minimise the effect of their roster weaknesses, and get some otherworldly performances from individuals. Obviously, series-MVP Madison Bumgarner was spectacular, but ex-Stro Hunter Pence and future-Stro (ha!) Pablo Sandoval consistently came up big on the offensive side of the ball. So, congratulations San Francisco, and for the fans of all other 29 teams, it is time to start thinking about the post-season.
For the Astros, this represents their most interesting offseason in recent times. After scaling the dizzy heights of 70 wins in 2014, and having some kind of core in place, the Astros now need to take the next step toward contention by cutting inadequate talent, and promoting or acquiring impact players to fill the voids.
What will make this interesting is the juggling of the roster. In the early phases of the Luhnow rebuild, the Astros clearly cashed in their pieces for flawed prospects with an area of strength from other systems. Matt Dominguez - considered a glove-first third baseman - and Robbie Grossman - an OBP LF with limited speed but solid defensive value - were the most obvious acquisitions that fill that description. The Astros didn't manage to acquire any Addison Russell's, but they also didn't have any Hunter Pence-sized pieces to let go. It will be interesting, in the inevitable, upcoming cull, whether the Astros make any J.D. Martinez-sized misjudgments.
Brian McTaggert has published a relatively generic primer on MLB.com, which contains all the standard quotes - yes, we are adding payroll; yes, we are going to look at the free agent market; yes, we are interested in trades; and yes, we want to add talent in the bullpen/starting rotation/everyday position player/on the bench areas.
But with a 40-man crunch happening, I can't see many upper tier free agents being pursued. If there are trades, I am thinking they will be of the 1-for-2-at-the-40-man-level variety (ála Dexter Fowler last year), or the trading away of an extra piece for a lottery ticket. I can see them looking for reasonably priced upgrades at 1B, 3B and LF, but these are also positions where prospects are likely to be opening the season at the MLB level, in AAA or in AA. The starting rotation was an area of relative strength last year, and there aren't many gaps available at the moment given that Scott Feldman is signed for 2 more years, and Keuchel and McHugh are going to be given the opportunity to further establish themselves.
And as for the 'pen, a quick reminder that (i) the two top free-agent acquisitions from last year pitched a total of 10 innings and (ii) the two team leaders in FIP either started the year with the team, or joined the team early on. Free agent acquisitions for the 'pen are a risky proposition, and at the moment, there is simply no need to take those kinds of risks with the Astros.
Most likely, the guys that are here will get the chance to make it happen in the first two months of 2015. But who knows.
My conclusion: I have no idea what the FO is thinking. However, I will be watching the offseason with interest. If I were forced, however, to make a call, I would be surprised whether arguably the 4-best fielding CF on the 40-man starts the year with the club. Dexter Fowler - in a weak free agent CF year - to a team that needs a CF, which at this stage (in the AL) seems to be the Blue Jays (who aren't trading at the moment) and the Tigers (who don't have the type of prospects that the Astros will want back).
So I am stumped. But very, very interested.
For the Astros, this represents their most interesting offseason in recent times. After scaling the dizzy heights of 70 wins in 2014, and having some kind of core in place, the Astros now need to take the next step toward contention by cutting inadequate talent, and promoting or acquiring impact players to fill the voids.
What will make this interesting is the juggling of the roster. In the early phases of the Luhnow rebuild, the Astros clearly cashed in their pieces for flawed prospects with an area of strength from other systems. Matt Dominguez - considered a glove-first third baseman - and Robbie Grossman - an OBP LF with limited speed but solid defensive value - were the most obvious acquisitions that fill that description. The Astros didn't manage to acquire any Addison Russell's, but they also didn't have any Hunter Pence-sized pieces to let go. It will be interesting, in the inevitable, upcoming cull, whether the Astros make any J.D. Martinez-sized misjudgments.
Brian McTaggert has published a relatively generic primer on MLB.com, which contains all the standard quotes - yes, we are adding payroll; yes, we are going to look at the free agent market; yes, we are interested in trades; and yes, we want to add talent in the bullpen/starting rotation/everyday position player/on the bench areas.
But with a 40-man crunch happening, I can't see many upper tier free agents being pursued. If there are trades, I am thinking they will be of the 1-for-2-at-the-40-man-level variety (ála Dexter Fowler last year), or the trading away of an extra piece for a lottery ticket. I can see them looking for reasonably priced upgrades at 1B, 3B and LF, but these are also positions where prospects are likely to be opening the season at the MLB level, in AAA or in AA. The starting rotation was an area of relative strength last year, and there aren't many gaps available at the moment given that Scott Feldman is signed for 2 more years, and Keuchel and McHugh are going to be given the opportunity to further establish themselves.
And as for the 'pen, a quick reminder that (i) the two top free-agent acquisitions from last year pitched a total of 10 innings and (ii) the two team leaders in FIP either started the year with the team, or joined the team early on. Free agent acquisitions for the 'pen are a risky proposition, and at the moment, there is simply no need to take those kinds of risks with the Astros.
Most likely, the guys that are here will get the chance to make it happen in the first two months of 2015. But who knows.
My conclusion: I have no idea what the FO is thinking. However, I will be watching the offseason with interest. If I were forced, however, to make a call, I would be surprised whether arguably the 4-best fielding CF on the 40-man starts the year with the club. Dexter Fowler - in a weak free agent CF year - to a team that needs a CF, which at this stage (in the AL) seems to be the Blue Jays (who aren't trading at the moment) and the Tigers (who don't have the type of prospects that the Astros will want back).
So I am stumped. But very, very interested.
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Saturday Morning Hot Links
*Matt Dominguez got a hug.
*The Astros officially signed six players, who were in Tri-City in time for last night's season-opening win: 7th Rounder Derick Velazquez, 9th Rounder Bryan Radziewski, 10th Rounder Jay Gause, 13th Rounder Jamie Ritchie, 14th Rounder Nick Tanielu, and 40th Rounder Alex Hernandez.
*The Oklahoman has a good piece on prospective LF Preston Tucker.
*The Astros signed Northwestern Nazarene pitcher Aaron Vaughn as an undrafted free agent. Vaughn was 9-4 for NNU, allowing 102H/31ER, 76K:18BB in 84IP, and completed seven of his 11 starts. He'll head to Kissimmee to start with the GCL Astros.
*The Astros officially signed six players, who were in Tri-City in time for last night's season-opening win: 7th Rounder Derick Velazquez, 9th Rounder Bryan Radziewski, 10th Rounder Jay Gause, 13th Rounder Jamie Ritchie, 14th Rounder Nick Tanielu, and 40th Rounder Alex Hernandez.
*The Oklahoman has a good piece on prospective LF Preston Tucker.
*The Astros signed Northwestern Nazarene pitcher Aaron Vaughn as an undrafted free agent. Vaughn was 9-4 for NNU, allowing 102H/31ER, 76K:18BB in 84IP, and completed seven of his 11 starts. He'll head to Kissimmee to start with the GCL Astros.
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
When does Small Sample Size stabilize - Hitters K%
As Aaron has touched on already, early in the season it's easy to get wrapped up in a poor start and think the sky is falling and forget that there's still a lot of season left for things to turn around. So, when do we reach the point where what we see is what we get? Is it a third of the way through the season, as we've heard the broadcast team say so many times already this season? Is it a month? Do we wait until the All-Star break? Well, at the risk of sounding like a cop-out, it depends. Thankfully, people much smarter than us have done the research and found the following stabilization points for various rate stats. You can't argue with science, right?
Baseball Prospectus has an excellent post that gets into the messy, mathy stuff, if you're so inclined. If you don't have a B-P subscriptionwhat's wrong with you FanGraphs has a more concise post on the same research. Here's the gist, lifted directly from FanGraphs:
I threw career and MLB average rates in there for context. Also, since there's no history at the major league level, Springer's 2013 is from the minors. As we can see, most everyone is around 1% of last season and pretty close to their career average, with a few exceptions.
Altuve stands out for very positive reasons. He's cut way back on swings on pitches outside the zone this season, which is good as he's seeing fewer first-pitch strikes. Getting ahead in the count early is forcing pitchers to throw more hittable pitches in the zone.
Dominguez is on the other side of the pendulum. He's swinging at more pitches outside the zone, fewer pitches inside the zone, and making less contact on any of them. He's seeing a high percentage of first pitch strikes, getting behind early, and hasn't been able to make adjustments during the at bat.
Grossman is particularly worrisome. After seeming to figure things out after rejoining the club in July last season, he's seemingly gotten very passive. He's swinging at fewer pitches, and making less contact when he does swing. It was often noted after his return last year that he was more aggressive at the plate; it would seem that his struggles again relate to being too passive.
Which leaves us with Guzman. Guzman's K% has gone up every season he's been in the big leagues. This season his contact rate is actually up, but he's swinging at far fewer pitches, particularly in the zone. Opposing pitchers have already clued into this, and they're pumping 71% strikes in on the first pitch, putting Guzman behind from the get-go.
Baseball Prospectus has an excellent post that gets into the messy, mathy stuff, if you're so inclined. If you don't have a B-P subscription
- 60 PA: Strikeout rate
- 120 PA: Walk rate
- 240 PA: HBP rate
- 290 PA: Single rate
- 1610 PA: XBH rate
- 170 PA: HR rate
- 910 AB: AVG
- 460 PA: OBP
- 320 AB: SLG
- 160 AB: ISO
- 80 BIP: GB rate
- 80 BIP: FB rate
- 600 BIP: LD rate
- 50 FBs: HR per FB
- 820 BIP: BABIP
- 70 BF: Strikeout rate
- 170 BF: Walk rate
- 640 BF: HBP rate
- 670 BF: Single rate
- 1450 BF: XBH rate
- 1320 BF: HR rate
- 630 BF: AVG
- 540 BF: OBP
- 550 AB: SLG
- 630 AB: ISO
- 70 BIP: GB rate
- 70 BIP: FB rate
- 650 BIP: LD rate
- 400 FB: HR per FB
- 2000 BIP: BABIP
Generally speaking, until we reach the stabilization point for a given rate stat, we can expect a player to "regress" towards their career averages going forward. With those numbers in mind, I'm starting a series that will look at these stats as we reach the above listed thresholds to see what, if any, meaningful numbers pop out.
Today we'll look at K% for hitters, as seven Astros have reached 60 PA and another four are between 50 and 60.
|
2013 K%
|
2014 K%
|
Difference
|
Career
|
MLB Average During Career
|
|
|
Altuve
|
12.7%
|
7.8%
|
-4.9%
|
11.9%
|
19.5%
|
|
Dominguez
|
16.3%
|
20.2%
|
3.9%
|
16.6%
|
19.5%
|
|
Fowler
|
21.3%
|
22.3%
|
1.0%
|
22.3%
|
18.8%
|
|
Carter
|
36.2%
|
35.9%
|
-0.3%
|
34.8%
|
19.3%
|
|
Castro
|
26.5%
|
27.8%
|
1.3%
|
23.5%
|
19.3%
|
|
Villar
|
29.5%
|
28.2%
|
-1.3%
|
29.1%
|
20.0%
|
|
Presley
|
20.0%
|
19.1%
|
-0.9%
|
19.3%
|
19.3%
|
|
Krauss
|
30.8%
|
30.5%
|
-0.3%
|
30.7%
|
20.0%
|
|
Grossman
|
24.3%
|
30.9%
|
6.6%
|
25.4%
|
20.0%
|
|
Springer
|
27.3%
|
28.3%
|
1.0%
|
28.3%
|
20.8%
|
|
Guzman
|
24.8%
|
33.3%
|
8.5%
|
21.7%
|
19.0%
|
Altuve stands out for very positive reasons. He's cut way back on swings on pitches outside the zone this season, which is good as he's seeing fewer first-pitch strikes. Getting ahead in the count early is forcing pitchers to throw more hittable pitches in the zone.
Dominguez is on the other side of the pendulum. He's swinging at more pitches outside the zone, fewer pitches inside the zone, and making less contact on any of them. He's seeing a high percentage of first pitch strikes, getting behind early, and hasn't been able to make adjustments during the at bat.
Grossman is particularly worrisome. After seeming to figure things out after rejoining the club in July last season, he's seemingly gotten very passive. He's swinging at fewer pitches, and making less contact when he does swing. It was often noted after his return last year that he was more aggressive at the plate; it would seem that his struggles again relate to being too passive.
Which leaves us with Guzman. Guzman's K% has gone up every season he's been in the big leagues. This season his contact rate is actually up, but he's swinging at far fewer pitches, particularly in the zone. Opposing pitchers have already clued into this, and they're pumping 71% strikes in on the first pitch, putting Guzman behind from the get-go.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
From the Office of the County Clerk - G21: Astros @ Mariners
Collin McHugh (0-0, 0.00; Career: 0-8, 5.86) v Erasmo Ramirez (1-2, 7.50)
Boom Boom!! The Astros dip into their lucky-pitcher-grab-bag and draw a winner. Collin McHugh, blogger extraordinaire deservedly gets his first major-league win by throwing 6 2/3 scoreless. Second 2-game win streak of the year! To the recap!!
On the Mound
* Collin McHugh is the story of the night, with an equally efficient and nasty performance. In 89 pitches, he managed 6 2/3 innings, with an impressive 12 strikeouts, no walks and 3 hits. Mr McHugh is the new game-score season-record holder (80), threw 61 strikes, and kept the ball on the ground 50% of the time. He was helped by Alex Presley twice in the 2nd, who gunned down a gimpy Corey Hart at second for the first out, and then ran down a fly ball into the left field corner for the third out. He was also helped by Jason Castro in the 5th, with a strike-'em-out, throw-'em-out double play to end the inning.
But the story was really the strikeouts. Nasty, nasty strikeouts. From Gameday, he was hitting both sides of the plate, and hitting the strike zone down with both breaking balls (slider to RHB, curve to LHB).
He started by striking out the side in the first: 88mph cutter to Almonte, swinging; 92mph 4 seamer to Ackley, looking; 93mph 2-seamer to Cano, up and away, swinging. He also struck out the side in the third: 86mph cutter to Saunders, swinging; 93mph 4 seamer to Zunino, swinging; 93mph 2 seamer on Miller, swinging. More nasty on Ackley in the 4th - foul tip on an 87mph cutter, then Seager on a 73mph curve to end the fourth. In the fifth, Zunino on a well-placed 84mph slider, with Castro also making a great play to throw a strike to 2nd. First strikeout looking in the 6th (Almonte, looking at an 86mph cutter), and poor Ackley again (6K's in the series so far) swinging on a 74mph curve to end the 6th. His last strikeout was on the 240-million-dollar-man, Robinson Cano, on a 73mph curve, chasing down and away.
* Raul Valdes came in with two outs in the 7th, and may have been thinking that Collin McHugh's fingernails were a little too long. He promptly walked Kyle Seagar, then gave up a long home run to LF over the visitors bullpen to Justin Smoak. That reduced the lead to two, and put the Mariners back in the game. Put some tension back into the contest as well, likely making Collin a little nervous.
* But Anthony Bass came in, ended the 7th on one pitch, then worked around a one-out double in a scoreless eighth. Quietly having a nice season - now sporting a 2.45 ERA and 3.04 FIP.
* Josh Fields earned his second save in as many nights by striking out Robinson Cano on a full count, and retiring Corey Hart on a line drive to centre, and Kyle Seager on a soft grounder. He now sports an ERA of 2.00, FIP of 1.93
* Astros right-handed pitchers combined for 14 K's, adding to the 14 from last night. Astros left-handed pitchers: walked one.
At the Plate
* Most of the damage happened early. Jose Altuve flew out on the first pitch, Dexter Fowler walked on a full count, then Jason Castro drilled an 0-2 elevated fastball the opposite way, just over the LF wall, for a two run homer (his fourth). Fowler ended the night 1-4, BB, 1R, 2 LOBsters, whereas Castro went 2-4, BB, HR, 2 RBI.
* Next inning, Chris Carter banged a hanging slider down the left field line into the upper deck for an 0-2 one out home run. He finished 2-4, 2 RBI, K, after also being the architect of a bases loaded, one-out single to CF in the 8th.
(Credit to Erasmo Ramirez at this point. He managed 6 innings total, managing to sort out his early issues with a flat-breaking ball. He saved a pretty exhausted 'pen for the Mariners. Kudos.)
* Matt Dominguez was back at 3rd base, and hit home run to right CF (his fourth) that kept cutting away from Abraham Almonte in the 7th. He finished 1-4, HR but 4 LOB. Still, trending in the right direction.
* Alex Presley, 2-4, had a nice night offensively and defensively (with the abovementioned outfield assist and running warning-track grab).
* Altuve 0-4, BB; Springer 0-4, BB, 3K; Krauss 0-3, 3K... 'nuff said.
Turning Point
Erasmo Ramirez's inability to bury an 0-2 slider to Chris Carter (does he not know about his more mild-mannered alter-ego, Kris Karter??) led to a lead the Astros would never relinquish. This resulted in one of those impressive HR swings that Carter seems to bust out 50-odd times per season (I imagine that some of them go foul). He barely looks like he is swinging, yet the ball fangs off his bat like it was launched from a cannon. Then Carter nonchalantly waltzes around the bases with a kind of relaxed, neutral expression on his face. We saw it a bit in 2013. Only seen it once in 2014 - very seductive power.
Carter's HR landed up where Zunino's long strike landed last night, which got some recognition in the blogosphere for it's distance. To wit:
"Zunino just absolutely destroyed a ball that went foul that may have been fair that was challenged and found to be foul after all, possibly. Most watching said it was probably the farthest hit ball to that part of Safeco they had seen."
Well, Carter just hit one there as well. And it looked easy.
Man of the Match
Twelve filthy K's (presented above in detail), first ML win, subbing in at short notice for an injured ace... Collin McHugh busted out a great, slightly unexpected performance. Plaudits.
Goat of the Game.
The RHP's were great. Not so much the LHP. Would have been nice to (i) issue no walks as a team and (ii) shut the evil Mariners out. Raul Valdes has had a rough start to the 2014 ML season.
Please note for those of you out of the MLB.tv blackout zone tomorrow and with a decent inter-web connection, Astros (& brooms) v Mariners, 3:40 ET, Game of the Day.
Boom Boom!! The Astros dip into their lucky-pitcher-grab-bag and draw a winner. Collin McHugh, blogger extraordinaire deservedly gets his first major-league win by throwing 6 2/3 scoreless. Second 2-game win streak of the year! To the recap!!
On the Mound
* Collin McHugh is the story of the night, with an equally efficient and nasty performance. In 89 pitches, he managed 6 2/3 innings, with an impressive 12 strikeouts, no walks and 3 hits. Mr McHugh is the new game-score season-record holder (80), threw 61 strikes, and kept the ball on the ground 50% of the time. He was helped by Alex Presley twice in the 2nd, who gunned down a gimpy Corey Hart at second for the first out, and then ran down a fly ball into the left field corner for the third out. He was also helped by Jason Castro in the 5th, with a strike-'em-out, throw-'em-out double play to end the inning.
But the story was really the strikeouts. Nasty, nasty strikeouts. From Gameday, he was hitting both sides of the plate, and hitting the strike zone down with both breaking balls (slider to RHB, curve to LHB).
He started by striking out the side in the first: 88mph cutter to Almonte, swinging; 92mph 4 seamer to Ackley, looking; 93mph 2-seamer to Cano, up and away, swinging. He also struck out the side in the third: 86mph cutter to Saunders, swinging; 93mph 4 seamer to Zunino, swinging; 93mph 2 seamer on Miller, swinging. More nasty on Ackley in the 4th - foul tip on an 87mph cutter, then Seager on a 73mph curve to end the fourth. In the fifth, Zunino on a well-placed 84mph slider, with Castro also making a great play to throw a strike to 2nd. First strikeout looking in the 6th (Almonte, looking at an 86mph cutter), and poor Ackley again (6K's in the series so far) swinging on a 74mph curve to end the 6th. His last strikeout was on the 240-million-dollar-man, Robinson Cano, on a 73mph curve, chasing down and away.
* Raul Valdes came in with two outs in the 7th, and may have been thinking that Collin McHugh's fingernails were a little too long. He promptly walked Kyle Seagar, then gave up a long home run to LF over the visitors bullpen to Justin Smoak. That reduced the lead to two, and put the Mariners back in the game. Put some tension back into the contest as well, likely making Collin a little nervous.
* But Anthony Bass came in, ended the 7th on one pitch, then worked around a one-out double in a scoreless eighth. Quietly having a nice season - now sporting a 2.45 ERA and 3.04 FIP.
* Josh Fields earned his second save in as many nights by striking out Robinson Cano on a full count, and retiring Corey Hart on a line drive to centre, and Kyle Seager on a soft grounder. He now sports an ERA of 2.00, FIP of 1.93
* Astros right-handed pitchers combined for 14 K's, adding to the 14 from last night. Astros left-handed pitchers: walked one.
At the Plate
* Most of the damage happened early. Jose Altuve flew out on the first pitch, Dexter Fowler walked on a full count, then Jason Castro drilled an 0-2 elevated fastball the opposite way, just over the LF wall, for a two run homer (his fourth). Fowler ended the night 1-4, BB, 1R, 2 LOBsters, whereas Castro went 2-4, BB, HR, 2 RBI.
* Next inning, Chris Carter banged a hanging slider down the left field line into the upper deck for an 0-2 one out home run. He finished 2-4, 2 RBI, K, after also being the architect of a bases loaded, one-out single to CF in the 8th.
(Credit to Erasmo Ramirez at this point. He managed 6 innings total, managing to sort out his early issues with a flat-breaking ball. He saved a pretty exhausted 'pen for the Mariners. Kudos.)
* Matt Dominguez was back at 3rd base, and hit home run to right CF (his fourth) that kept cutting away from Abraham Almonte in the 7th. He finished 1-4, HR but 4 LOB. Still, trending in the right direction.
* Alex Presley, 2-4, had a nice night offensively and defensively (with the abovementioned outfield assist and running warning-track grab).
* Altuve 0-4, BB; Springer 0-4, BB, 3K; Krauss 0-3, 3K... 'nuff said.
Turning Point
Erasmo Ramirez's inability to bury an 0-2 slider to Chris Carter (does he not know about his more mild-mannered alter-ego, Kris Karter??) led to a lead the Astros would never relinquish. This resulted in one of those impressive HR swings that Carter seems to bust out 50-odd times per season (I imagine that some of them go foul). He barely looks like he is swinging, yet the ball fangs off his bat like it was launched from a cannon. Then Carter nonchalantly waltzes around the bases with a kind of relaxed, neutral expression on his face. We saw it a bit in 2013. Only seen it once in 2014 - very seductive power.
Carter's HR landed up where Zunino's long strike landed last night, which got some recognition in the blogosphere for it's distance. To wit:
"Zunino just absolutely destroyed a ball that went foul that may have been fair that was challenged and found to be foul after all, possibly. Most watching said it was probably the farthest hit ball to that part of Safeco they had seen."
Well, Carter just hit one there as well. And it looked easy.
Man of the Match
Twelve filthy K's (presented above in detail), first ML win, subbing in at short notice for an injured ace... Collin McHugh busted out a great, slightly unexpected performance. Plaudits.
Goat of the Game.
The RHP's were great. Not so much the LHP. Would have been nice to (i) issue no walks as a team and (ii) shut the evil Mariners out. Raul Valdes has had a rough start to the 2014 ML season.
Please note for those of you out of the MLB.tv blackout zone tomorrow and with a decent inter-web connection, Astros (& brooms) v Mariners, 3:40 ET, Game of the Day.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
From the Office of the County Clerk - G20: Astros @ Mariners
Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 3.50) versus Felix Hernandez (3-0, 1.91)
My first game recap, and it's a doozy. The Astros add the scalp of King Felix to their the list of No 1 starters they have beat up on this year. (Also on the list - in order - the new & slimmer CC Sabathia, R.A. Dickey, Jered Weaver and Tanner "not Yu" Scheppers). They go to 6-14 on the year, snap a 7-game losing streak, and improve to 9-4 all time at Safeco, and 7-3 all time at Safeco whilst participating in the AL West.
On the Mound:
* Recently Nominated Ace, Dallas Keuchel, worked hard for the win, twirling 6 innings of 6 hit (2XBH), 2 run ball, whilst throwing 113 pitches. I am going to indulge myself in a bit of "analysis" here:
Staked to a two-run lead in the top of the 5th, he gave up the only run scoring play against him in the bottom-half. This was by virtue of a one-out double by Abraham Almonte, just past Marc Krauss down the right field line with runners on second and third (which got George Springer all tied in knots as the ball got stuck under the padding). He struck out 8 against one walk. Strikeouts came as follows: Ackley looking at fastball in the first; Zunino swinging at breaking ball in the 3rd, Miller looking at fastball in the 3rd, Ackley looking at fastball in the 4th, Miller swinging at breaking ball in the 5th, Ackley swinging at slider in the 5th, Cano swinging at slider in the 5th, Hart swinging at change up in the 6th.
* Chad Qualls has been voted off the Closer Committee, so he came in to pitch the 7th. And did plenty well, facing the minimum and striking out 2. He got to catch his breath after 4 pitches while the umpires reviewed Mike Zunino's looonnggg strike down the left field line.
* Matty Albers, newly minted father, pitched the 8th, giving up one hit (single), and striking out one.
* Josh Fields struck out the side on 15 pitches in the 9th, ending the game with a full-count 94mph fastball past the bat of Mike Zunino.
* All in all, Astros pitchers struck out 14 against one walk. Excellent!
At the Plate:
* Matt Dominguez got Designated as the Hitter Who Does Not Field, and had himself a good night: 2-3 (2B, HR), BB, 3 RBI.
* Alex Presley played LF and batted in the 6-hole. 3-4, scored twice, 3B, 1 RBI.
* Marc Krauss, perhaps counting down the number of plate appearances he has before the Super-Two cutoff, also did well: 2-4 (HR), K, 2 RBI. Home run was to RF was off The Bartender
*Altuve: 1-4, 2B, BB
* George Springer had his first hitless night in the Major Leagues - 0-4, K, 2 LOBbies.
* He was joined in the Hitless Club by yesterday's "Hero", Marwin Gonzalez (0-4, 3 LOB), Jonathan Villar (0-4, K), and Jason Castro (0-3, Sac Fly, 2 LOB). In Castro's defence, Steve Sparks did make a point to say that he had hit the ball hard in all his plate appearances.
Turning Point:
I hate to say that the Turning Point was an opposition error, but... well, it was. After the Mariners tied the game in the 5th, the Astros started the 6th with an Altuve double. Fowler then bunted, which Zunino fielded and made a great throw to Kyle Seager, Mariners 3rd baseman. Well, he dropped it. After that: Sac fly (Castro), K (Springer), Single (Krauss), Triple (Presley), Double (Dominguez), ground out (Gonzalez). 4 unearned, and a bemused looking Felix Hernandez on the mound.
Man of the Match:
Matty D bounced back well after a day off, and seemed to thrive not having to worry about the leather. He earns the MOTM. Plaudits to Dallas Keuchel, Alex Presley and Mark Krauss.
Goat of the Game:
Demote George Springer already! Actually, probably Marwin.
Last word from Robert Ford, radio broadcaster: "Goodbye, 7-game losing streak!"
My first game recap, and it's a doozy. The Astros add the scalp of King Felix to their the list of No 1 starters they have beat up on this year. (Also on the list - in order - the new & slimmer CC Sabathia, R.A. Dickey, Jered Weaver and Tanner "not Yu" Scheppers). They go to 6-14 on the year, snap a 7-game losing streak, and improve to 9-4 all time at Safeco, and 7-3 all time at Safeco whilst participating in the AL West.
On the Mound:
* Recently Nominated Ace, Dallas Keuchel, worked hard for the win, twirling 6 innings of 6 hit (2XBH), 2 run ball, whilst throwing 113 pitches. I am going to indulge myself in a bit of "analysis" here:
Staked to a two-run lead in the top of the 5th, he gave up the only run scoring play against him in the bottom-half. This was by virtue of a one-out double by Abraham Almonte, just past Marc Krauss down the right field line with runners on second and third (which got George Springer all tied in knots as the ball got stuck under the padding). He struck out 8 against one walk. Strikeouts came as follows: Ackley looking at fastball in the first; Zunino swinging at breaking ball in the 3rd, Miller looking at fastball in the 3rd, Ackley looking at fastball in the 4th, Miller swinging at breaking ball in the 5th, Ackley swinging at slider in the 5th, Cano swinging at slider in the 5th, Hart swinging at change up in the 6th.
* Chad Qualls has been voted off the Closer Committee, so he came in to pitch the 7th. And did plenty well, facing the minimum and striking out 2. He got to catch his breath after 4 pitches while the umpires reviewed Mike Zunino's looonnggg strike down the left field line.
* Matty Albers, newly minted father, pitched the 8th, giving up one hit (single), and striking out one.
* Josh Fields struck out the side on 15 pitches in the 9th, ending the game with a full-count 94mph fastball past the bat of Mike Zunino.
* All in all, Astros pitchers struck out 14 against one walk. Excellent!
At the Plate:
* Matt Dominguez got Designated as the Hitter Who Does Not Field, and had himself a good night: 2-3 (2B, HR), BB, 3 RBI.
* Alex Presley played LF and batted in the 6-hole. 3-4, scored twice, 3B, 1 RBI.
* Marc Krauss, perhaps counting down the number of plate appearances he has before the Super-Two cutoff, also did well: 2-4 (HR), K, 2 RBI. Home run was to RF was off The Bartender
*Altuve: 1-4, 2B, BB
* George Springer had his first hitless night in the Major Leagues - 0-4, K, 2 LOBbies.
* He was joined in the Hitless Club by yesterday's "Hero", Marwin Gonzalez (0-4, 3 LOB), Jonathan Villar (0-4, K), and Jason Castro (0-3, Sac Fly, 2 LOB). In Castro's defence, Steve Sparks did make a point to say that he had hit the ball hard in all his plate appearances.
Turning Point:
I hate to say that the Turning Point was an opposition error, but... well, it was. After the Mariners tied the game in the 5th, the Astros started the 6th with an Altuve double. Fowler then bunted, which Zunino fielded and made a great throw to Kyle Seager, Mariners 3rd baseman. Well, he dropped it. After that: Sac fly (Castro), K (Springer), Single (Krauss), Triple (Presley), Double (Dominguez), ground out (Gonzalez). 4 unearned, and a bemused looking Felix Hernandez on the mound.
Man of the Match:
Matty D bounced back well after a day off, and seemed to thrive not having to worry about the leather. He earns the MOTM. Plaudits to Dallas Keuchel, Alex Presley and Mark Krauss.
Goat of the Game:
Demote George Springer already! Actually, probably Marwin.
Last word from Robert Ford, radio broadcaster: "Goodbye, 7-game losing streak!"
Friday, April 18, 2014
A timeline of Bo Porter's rage
CSN Houston posted a clip of the press conference in which Bo Porter stared at reporters for 17 seconds before answering how he felt about Matt Dominguez running like a ninnymuggins into the 1st out of the inning with Carter at third base. Here's a break down of those 17 seconds...
The reporter - presumably Evan Drellich - is in the process of asking Porter about Dominguez's running play. Bo looks down and to the left, recalling the event. In his mind he is rewinding innings 6-9 back to the 5th inning.
Bo's right eye narrows as he sees Dominguez take a wide turn at first base. The anger is starting to rise in his heart.
The fire is getting stoked. There is a fog of anger creeping up out of his bowels and covering his eyes. Bo is watching, but not seeing. He is present, but also not present. His gaze is set firmly on the 5th inning and Matt Dominguez running like a toddler into the waiting arms of Omar Infante.
Bo looks back towards Drellich at first, but mainly towards the clubhouse where it happened. His eyes show regret. Regret for the crime - the unspeakable crime - he committed. It went too far. And Bo knew it was going too far as his teeth punctured Dominguez's neck..
No matter. The deed has been done. No taking it back now. Gotta crack a few eggs to make an omelette. They'll get the blood out of the carpet. They'll call up another third baseman, another third baseman who knows not to run to second on a single to shallow left. Smile knowing that you have complete control over the clubhouse. The remaining 24 know. They all know.
The reporter - presumably Evan Drellich - is in the process of asking Porter about Dominguez's running play. Bo looks down and to the left, recalling the event. In his mind he is rewinding innings 6-9 back to the 5th inning.
Bo's right eye narrows as he sees Dominguez take a wide turn at first base. The anger is starting to rise in his heart.
The fire is getting stoked. There is a fog of anger creeping up out of his bowels and covering his eyes. Bo is watching, but not seeing. He is present, but also not present. His gaze is set firmly on the 5th inning and Matt Dominguez running like a toddler into the waiting arms of Omar Infante.
Bo looks back towards Drellich at first, but mainly towards the clubhouse where it happened. His eyes show regret. Regret for the crime - the unspeakable crime - he committed. It went too far. And Bo knew it was going too far as his teeth punctured Dominguez's neck..
No matter. The deed has been done. No taking it back now. Gotta crack a few eggs to make an omelette. They'll get the blood out of the carpet. They'll call up another third baseman, another third baseman who knows not to run to second on a single to shallow left. Smile knowing that you have complete control over the clubhouse. The remaining 24 know. They all know.
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