July 30 Evening Rumor Roundup / Running Post

Wife & Kid are out of town, which means that I can do this. Here's a running update on what has happened, rumor-wise, with the Astros on the evening/night of July 30. This does not replace Hot Links in the morning. This goes backwards, chronologically:

9:05pm: There's apparently a three-team deal with Cleveland, Cincinnati, and San Diego that sends Bauer to the Reds. Marcus Stroman went to the Mets. Tyler Bauer went to the Reds. You can't plan for Dumb People Doing Weird Things.

8:28pm: Matt Boyd "very likely staying" in Detroit.

7:10pm: Syndergaard actually took the mound against the White Sox.

6:44pm: Bauer is "very much in play." Bumgarner remains available. Interest in Robbie Ray has picked up. Jeff Passan: "The trade market is finally beginning to unclog."

6:27pm: Hinch (pre-game):
There's a lot of talk going on, there's a lot of action. I try to encourage our guys to not read too much into it. So many different people have access to so much different information, so stay patient and see what happens...We try to keep our 25 guys inside extremely close, and the Deadline anxiety and the Deadline stress is real.

I get a ton of questions. People see when my office door is open, or is it closed? Am I on the phone? Am I not on the phone? Chances are I'm working on the Indians and trying to set ourselves up to beat these guys. The transactions that may or may not happen, we'll all find out around the same time.

6:13pm: The Astros are "thought to be in the mix" for Bauer and Bumgarner, and any other top SP.

6:08pm: The Indians want Major-League help in any return for Bauer.

5:57pm: The Reds and Indians are trying to line up a Bauer trade, with a Double-A outfielder with a .688 OPS as one of the more intriguing names in the discussion.

5:53pm: The Indians are more likely to trade Trevor Bauer than to keep him.

5:04pm: The Astros, as well as the Braves, Yankees, Brewers, Twins, and Phillies are in on Arizona's Robbie Ray.

4:39pm: For those of you who are interested in catching, interest in Toronto's Justin Smoak is "picking up."

4:31pm: Joel Sherman quotes an anonymous executive who says, of the Mets' ask for Syndergaard:
It is not even worth a second conversation. I'm not even sure it was worth the first. Maybe some other team would say yes to that, but that is hard to believe. Because the Mets are not in the mode of meeting you in the middle of your offer and their ask, it is their ask or nothing.

3:00pm: 24 hours to go until the Trade Deadline.

2:59pm: "The buyers insist the sellers' demands are unrealistic. The sellers insist the buyer's offers are too low."

2:50pm: The Mets are asking for Major-League or Major-League-Ready talent for Syndergaard, even among teams with deep faarm (sic) systems.

2:48pm: Trevor Bauer is being fined, but not suspended, for throwing the ball over the center-field wall.

2:46pm: SI says that Syndergaard would be a "stellar compliment" to Verlander and Cole:
Trading Tucker could send a potential All-Star to New York. Holding onto him could cost the Astros a spot in the World Series.

2:44pm: It's "unlikely" that Pirates reliever Felipe Vazquez will get traded, despite "tons of interest."

2:00pm: Folks, Ken Giles is probably not going to get traded to Houston after receiving a cortisone shot.

1:52pm: The Padres have made what they believe to be a "strong offer" for Noah Syndergaard, but it's still not apparently enough. Because the Mets are stupid. The Padres have been on Syndergaard for quite a while.

1:16pm: "Rivals" are still skeptical on the Giants trading Bumgarner.

1:06pm: Tim Brown: "The stunner would if be if [the Astros] don't end up with one of the top-end available SPs."

12:36pm: Giants and Astros are "engaged" on Madison Bumgarner.

10:12am: Detroit SP Matthew Boyd is "likely to stay put."

9:10am: For some reason, the Astros are interested in Orioles 1B/OF Trey Mancini.

Potential Spin Rate Trade Targets for the Astros

The Houston Astros made a sneaky good trade last year with the addition of Ryan Pressly. For the Twins he had a 3.40 ERA over 51 games. With the Astros 0.77 ERA over the 26 remaining games of the season. In the playoffs he allowed 1 run in five innings. The dude was is nails. He's continued his success with a 1.47 ERA in 36 games this year.

One of the reasons the Astros targeted Pressly was because of his high spin rate. According to Baseball Savant he's second in the league with 3104 RPM. The leader is Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Chris Stratton who has a spin rate of 3105 RPM. Spin rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released, according to MLB.com. The more spin on fastballs and breaking balls; the tougher they are to hit. On the other end of the spectrum the less spin on changeups and knuckleballs makes those pitches harder to hit.

Spin rate isn't the only indicator of success. Stratton has a career 5.06 ERA in 256+ innings. Pitch usage, control, command, umpires, ballparks, weather, fans, hot dogs, nachos, and political arguments on Twitter all still play a factor (caveat: Some of these play a larger role). Still Charlie "F" Morton is top 10 in spin rate with 2875 (remember him?). Justin Verlander is Top 20. Mike Fiers 24th.

With the Astros in need of pitching help, I decided to take a look at the Top 50 pitchers (and one outside) and spin rate and see if there are any sneaky (or not so sneaky) pitchers the Astros could be targeting.

Sonny Gray - Cincinnati Reds

Despite a +37 run differential, the Reds are in the NL Central cellar. Gray has a 3.94 ERA in 82+ innings. There are signs the ERA could improve even more over the remaining season. He has a 3.62 FIP and 3.64 xFIP. He ranks 7th in spin rate with 2891 RPM. He's in the Astros budget ($7.5MM this year) and controllable over the next three years ($30.5MM) and has a club option for 2023.

Felipe Vazquez - Pittsburgh Pirates

Unlike the Reds, the Pirates have a -43 run differential. They will have to make a decision soon on being sellers or buyers soon. This year is different from past years in that there is no longer a waiver trade deadline. It's all July 31 or nothing. 

Vazquez, unlike the rest of the pitchers on this list, is a reliever. He's left-handed though. Something the Astros desperately need in the bullpen. This year he has a 1.80 ERA in 35 innings. His 2765 RPM ranks 26th in the league. He's signed through 2021 (four years $22MM) with club options for 2022 and 2023. 

Marcus Stroman - Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays own a -77 run differential in a AL East dominated by New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays (yes the Rays), and Boston Red Sox. There's already talk of Stroman and the Astros. Stroman has a 3.18 ERA over 105+ innings. He's 32nd in spin rate. His 3.82 FIP and 4.16 xFIP suggest he may have some clunkers in the second half of the season. He's a free agent in 2021. 

Tanner Roark - Cincinnat Reds

Roark has a 3.36 ERA or 85+ innings. He ranks 38th in spin rate Like Stroman, his 3.50 FIP and 4.39 xFIP suggest that there are some bad outings ahead. He's controllable through the end of next season and someone that probably won't cost as much as a Gray or Stroman. 

James Taillon - Pittsburgh Pirates

Right at 50th in spin rate is Taillon. Unfortunately, he's on the 60-day IL and was recently cleared to play catch. I doubt he's traded. 

Matthew Boyd - Detroit Tigers

This was suggested by Michael Shopoff (@mshopoff) on Twitter. Boyd was recently connected to the Astros by Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Boyd has a 3.72 ERA in 101+ innings. His 3.58 FIP and 3.52 xFIP are a good indicator of continued success. He ranks 152 in spin rate. A fourseam (50%) and slider (35%) are the pitches he uses the most. He's dropped his sinker, curve, and changeup for the most part this year.

What other potential trade targets would you like to see the Astros go after?