Every morning while I put the Hot Links together during the 2017 season, I would check FanGraphs' Playoff Odds page. Even back in April. I wouldn't always talk about it, because I didn't want to be the guy scoreboard watching in May. Once a week, usually on an off-day, I would post a run-down of where things stood, projection-wise. It's like getting on a scale, you're not really supposed to do it every day, so you don't overreact to things like water weight and normal ebbs and flows of...things that determine how much you weigh. But I do it anyway. Getting on the scale, and checking the Playoff Odds everyday. I'd check it against FiveThirtyEight and BaseballProspectus, and I'd scoff at the projection that didn't tell me what I wanted to know - that the Astros were locks to win the World Series. Go ahead, click that link above. You'll like what you see.
So how does it work? Reading the About section tells us this:
The FanGraphs Playoff Odds are an adaptation of the coolstandings.com playoff odds originally created by Greg Agami and Sean Walsh. To generate the playoff odds we simulate each season 10,000 times.
It's FanGraphs' tweaking of pythagorean theorem, recent results, depth charts, ZIPS projections, etc. It's updated every day in the middle of the night, so by the time I get to this part of the internet (usually around 5:30am), it's ready to release its fresh horrors.
So let's take a look, through the smug lens of hindsight, and see how the Playoff Odds reacted to the 2017 Astros' season. Here's how FanGraphs projected the season on the Eve of Opening Day:
AL West:
Houston: 90-72
Anaheim: 83-79
Seattle: 82-80
Arlington: 82-80
Oakland: 77-85
That's pretty much exactly how the AL West shook out. Anaheim actually won three fewer games, but I doubt the projections figured in how much time Mike Trout missed in 2017. The Rangers and Mariners tied, but with 78 wins, and the projections were off on Oakland by two wins. But that's pretty impressive.
Where else in the pre-season projections was FanGraphs remarkably wrong? They were -11 on the Astros. Who else either out- or under-performed by 10+ wins?
San Francisco's FG projection: 89-73
San Francisco's actual record: 64-98 (-25)
Detroit's FG projection: 82-80
Detroit's actual record: 64-98 (-18)
Mets' FG projection: 87-75
Mets' actual record: 70-92 (-17)
Arizona's FG projection: 77-85
Arizona's actual record: 93-69 (+16)
Milwaukee's FG projection: 70-92
Milwaukee's actual record: 86-76 (+16)
Yankees' FG projection: 79-83
Yankees' actual record: 91-71 (+12)
Houston's FG projection: 90-72
Houston's actual record: 101-61 (+11)
Toronto's FG projection: 86-76
Toronto's actual record: 76-86 (-10)
Minnesota's FG projection: 75-87
Minnesota's actual record: 85-77 (+10)
There are so many stories as to why the projections missed. Nine teams were off by 10 or more wins, four of them were in the National League, five in the AL. There were a group of teams that were within three wins of their pre-season projection. But injuries (cough BUMGARNER cough), regression, playing out of your mind for a month, etc. But let's just stop and note that, of the six divisions in MLB, FanGraphs' projection system got all six division winners correct.
So let's take a look at the Astros, specifically.
Pre-Season:
Making the playoffs: 78.4%
Winning the division: 60.1%
Winning the Pennant: 20.0%
Winning the World Series: 10.3%
The Astros obviously had a good team coming out of Spring Training, eschewing Chris Carter for Yuli Gurriel; jettisoning Colby Rasmus for Josh Reddick; wife-swapping Jason Castro for Brian McCann. They'd be good, we knew that. If you at least make the playoffs in 7840 out of 10,000 simulations, things look alright. Then you see what happens in October.
But after sweeping the Mariners to start the season, the Astros' odds of making the playoffs jumped to 85%. Thanks to going 10-3 from April 10-25, their odds jumped from 77.6% to 92.3%. On the morning of May 18 the Astros' playoff odds were 98%, having won 15 of 19 games.
May 29: Astros' postseason chances hit 99% for the first time. So after the most incredible win of the season, the Memorial Day Miracle, the Astros make the postseason 9,930 out of 10,000 times. Which, after that win, seems low.
June 2: Having won 10 of 11, the Astros' projection to win the division hits 99% for the first time. October is an inevitability.
July 3: The Astros are a 100% lock to make the ALDS. The Astros have a 15-game lead after taking two of three from the Yankees at home (Ed. note: I was at the one loss. With The Wife, Freakin' Pat, and Tyler.)
July 16: The Astros' odds of winning the ALDS and making it to the ALCS peaked. The Astros were 62-30, projected for 103.5 wins, after taking two of three from Minnesota at home after the All-Star Break.
The trade deadline came and went and were described as "a disappointment would be an understatement." The Astros woke up on August 1 and were 57.4% to win their ALDS, 28.7% to win the Pennant (the exact same as Cleveland), and 15.2% to win the World Series. They were projected to go 102-60.
A 3-10 stretch through August 14 had them at 58.2% to win their ALDS, 28.5% to win the Pennant, and 15.3% to win the World Series. They would finish the month 8-7, so the Astros' 11-17 August didn't affect them too heavily. The numbers knew who the Astros were, and could account for a 28-game stretch (17% of a season) where they didn't play to the level they had shown prior.
(Side note: Cleveland's 22-game win streak didn't do as much as you would think for their postseason success odds. The streak started on August 24, when their odds of winning an ALDS series was 50.5%, 27.5% to win the Pennant, and 15.5% to win the World Series. By the time it ended on September 14 it was 62.4% to win their ALDS, 32.3% to win the Pennant, and 19.6% to win the World Series. Maybe that's significant, I don't know. But when the simulations take recent results into account, a 22-game win streak - winning 13.6% of the season in a row - shifted things, but not dramatically. I guess the take away is that we overreact too much on a game-by-game basis. This is not exactly breaking news.)
September 2: The Astros introduced Justin Verlander at MMP and won both ends of a double-header against the Mets in their first game back at Minute Maid Park following Harvey, pushing their record to 82-53. They were already at 100.0% to win the division, 61.3% to win the ALDS (highest since their 62.4% on July 16), 32.9% to win the Pennant, and 19.8% to win the World Series.
September 4: Following the Astros' 5th-straight win they post their highest odds of winning the Pennant and the World Series at 35.8% and 22.0%, respectively. The following day Verlander would make his Astros debut and start a string of 10 straight Astros wins in games he starts.
October 2: The Astros woke up three days out from starting the ALDS against the Red Sox in the ALDS with simulations showing them beating the Red Sox by a narrow 52.2-47.8 margin, lowest it had been since May 25th's 50.7% chance of advancing to the ALCS. They were AL Pennant winners in 26.3% of the simulations, which had not been that low since May 11's 25.8% chance. Houston won the World Series in 15.1% of FanGraphs' simulations, the lowest it had been since August 16, after the Astros had lost eight of 13 August games.
But let's take stock of ten playoff teams' "chances" of winning each round of the playoffs, at the outset of each round:
Win ALDS (as of October 2, 2017):
Cleveland: 64.0%
Houston: 52.2%
Boston: 47.8%
New York: 25.6%
Minnesota: 10.3%
Obviously FanGraphs favored Cleveland to win the ALDS over either New York or Minnesota (whoops). Houston was a narrow favorite over Boston, likely due to facing Chris Sale twice and Craig Kimbrel however many times it was necessary.
Win NLDS (as of October 2):
Los Angeles: 65.8%
Washington: 50.4%
Chicago: 49.6%
Arizona: 19.0%
Colorado: 15.2%
Arizona and Colorado were the Wild Card teams, so they had a steeper hill to climb. But the Dodgers are the clear favorites here.
Win ALDS (as of October 5):
Cleveland: 59.2%
Houston: 52.7%
Boston: 47.3%
New York: 40.8%
I think everyone in the world thought it would be a Houston/Cleveland ALCS, but the simulations said Cleveland would easily handle the Yankees.
WIN ALCS (as of October 12):
Houston: 59.3%
New York: 40.7%
Houston was the clear favorite, but obviously FanGraphs didn't plan on the Astros dropping all three in New York.
WIN NLCS (as of October 13):
Los Angeles: 53.8%
Chicago: 46.2%
Interesting to see this series as narrow as it was projected, given that the Dodgers handled the Cubs easily while the Astros actively tried to take years off our lives in the ALCS.
WIN World Series (as of October 22, after both pennants had been won):
Houston: 52.6%
Los Angeles: 47.4%
That said, after Clayton Kershaw won Game 1 - a game nobody really thought he was going to lose - the simulations shifted to 62.5-37.5 in favor of the Dodgers. After dominating Game 1, the Dodgers won four of the next six games (three of them at home) in 6250 of 10000 simulations.
So, after Game 2 (tied 1-1):
Houston: 51.6%
Los Angeles: 48.4%
When the Astros took Game 2 in LA, it essentially made the series a best-of-five with home-field advantage. The simulations shifted slightly in Houston's favor.
After Game 3 (2-1 Houston):
Houston: 70.8%
Los Angeles: 29.2%
I guess that Game 3 was crucial.
After Game 4 (Tied 2-2):
Houston: 53.7%
Los Angeles: 46.3%
The bullpen's blown save gave the Dodgers about 1700 extra series simulation wins, needing to win two home games to take the World Series.
After Game 5 (3-2 Houston):
Houston: 79.0%
Los Angeles: 21.0%
Biggest swing of the series, naturally. The simulations figured Verlander and Keuchel could get one win in Los Angeles.
After Game 6 (Tied 3-3)
Houston: 53.2%
Los Angeles: 46.8%
Maybe it was Keuchel vs. Darvish, but I was surprised that the Astros were favored in this game. The only time - again, in the simulations - throughout the World Series that the Astros didn't win the World Series in the majority of simulations was after Game 1.
This certainly does not mean that you should check CoolStandings next March and roll out to Vegas and bet everything on CoolStandings being right. I mean, go back and check the Indians' chances in the simulations at getting through the ALDS. But still, things turned out generally how they were simulated.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label 2017 Season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2017 Season. Show all posts
Monday, November 20, 2017
Friday, May 12, 2017
Astros County Roundtable - the first 35 games
So the Astros sit with a ML-leading 24 wins against and ML equal-low 11 losses. That adds up to a nice round 35 games, so Astros County, Masked Marvel and (Not Hank) Aaron took the opportunity to sit around their comically large boardroom roundtable which sits on the 48th floor of an awesome looking skyscraper overlooking downtown Houston, to discuss the season to this point.
Aside from "Wooo!!", what are your thoughts on the season so far, in a sentence or less...
MM: The Astros have done what they needed to do to this point - pound on division rivals with a 17-6 record.
AC: The Astros have been able to make up for their own shortcomings, either through offense when the pitching is bad or pitching when the offense is bad.
NH: Season is playing out as planned, explosive offense and solid bullpen making up for league average starting pitching.
What do you think has been the most important ingredient in the Astros' fast start??
MM: The 2017 Astros were drawn up to be a team with no holes, unlike every other Astros team since the early naughties. Their stars, perhaps aside from Altuve, all have room to grow and get better (sorry about the Altuve height reference), and what the Front Office did this year was to add some solid lefty bats to augment those guys. As a result, and as often referenced, the Astros bat solidly from 1 through 9.
Looking at the fWAR rankings for the position players illustrates this point nicely. Through approximately the first month of the season, there have been some outstanding performances from non-Astros: Bryce Harper leads baseball with a 2.4 fWAR already. Miguel Sano, Freddy Freeman, Mike Trout, Eric Thames and Ryan Zimmerman (!) all sit slightly back just over 2.0 fWAR - those are the six position players over 2 for the season so far.
The leading Astro in terms of fWAR?? The recently-hit Carlos Correa (1.2), followed by... no other Astros above 1.0 fWAR. But, of the other seven major position players only Carlos Beltrán sits in negative territory (-0.4). Springer, Altuve and McCann have all contributed (just under 1 fWAR), as have part-timers MarGo (1.0) and El Oso Blanco (0.5).
Similar story with the pitchers: the leading pitcher via fWAR is Chris Sale with 2.4. The leading Astro is AL Pitcher of the Month, Dallas Keuchel (1.1); closely followed by starters Charles Morton and Lance McCullers (0.8) and reliever Chris Devenski (1.0). Mike Fiers sits at -1.0 fWAR for the season, so he is the worst-performed Astro this season. And no one expects a >40% HR/FB rate to continue.
So no outstanding, season-long performances as yet for the Astros, just solid contributions from almost everyone.
AC: They've gotten production from everywhere. Like MM said, there hasn't been one person you look to and think, "they're carrying this team." (Maybe Marwin?) But it still doesn't feel like the whole team has clicked together yet. Gregerson and Giles are a little concerning. Mike Fiers is a lot concerning. Bregman hasn't found his power yet. And still they're leading the division. This is fun.
NH: The depth of the lineup has paid dividends in the late innings. I'm not sure if this is a real factor, or something I've made up, but it really seems like running out 9 above average hitters consistently has worn pitching staffs down, allowing for the late inning explosions. The team is putting up a .343 OBP, and a 121 wRC+ overall. In the last 30 days, excluding that odd opening, it's .351 and 127. Keep that up, and this team will cruise.
The Astros' Pythagoran record is 22-13 (168 runs for, 127 against). Anything worrying y'all about the Astros moving forward??
AC: No, it's about time this franchise caught some breaks.
NH: That's hardly extreme. Nothing about their performance this far screams regression. Team BABIP is pretty normal. They are outperforming their FIP but matching their xFIP. This is a team who was expected to be good and has been good
Who are you watching in the minors who can help the 2017 Astros from on the Farm???
MM: Tony Sipp (4.05 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 5.62 xFIP) has been better of late, but he has only been used in a mop-up role recently. I don't think that he is the (touches wood) postseason lefty for the Astros. So I am interested in the lefties on the farm, and they don't have to be good against righties.
In Fresno, Ashur Tolliver (9.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP) and Sean Stutzman (8.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.731 WHIP) have been used in short relief only (six and three games respectively). Reymin Guduan has been used more (13 games, 15.2IP) but hasn't been good (8.62 ERA, 1.787 WHIP).
I mentioned Michael Freeman in the last roundtable, and he has been used a lot (13 games, 19 IP), recording good results in Corpus (3.32) without good peripherals (19 H, 16 BB, 14K, 1.842 WHIP). Stutzman was the standout lefty here in a small sample prior to his promotion (5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 8K).
Further down the farm in Buies Creek, Framber Valdez has thrown 25.2 innings in 6 games (4 starts). He has a 1.247 WHIP, with 31 strikeouts against 15 walks. Cionel Perez has to be added to the 40-man at the end of the year (thanks to the Astros rescinding their initial offer because of his physical exam), and he has appeared in 3 games for the River Bandits (all starts), through 10 innings, with a 11.70 ERA.
So, yeah, interest, but no one standing out. The next Astros LOOGY will come from outside the organisation, it seems.
AC: I would have said Brady Rodgers, because he was the one bright spot in the rotation, so I guess I default to Frankie Tuesday after Rodgers' Tommy John surgery last week. The Astros do need another arm, and Martes would be the one guy to do it that wouldn't cost any prospects. I don't see anyone making an Altuve/McCullersesque jump and coming straight from Double-A. So Fresno is what you get.
NH: Gurriel has been really weird, and we still have no idea who he is. .095/.095/.095 first 8 games, .451/.472./.686 next 14, .152/.243/.182 next 9. Reed has been good in AAA, but not great (.282/.406/.455, 27% K rate). I'm really curious to see which of those two winds up the Astros 1st baseman in the second half.
MarGo: breakout year or just a blip of awesomeness??
AC: Blip of awesomeness, unless it just took him six years to figure out Major-League pitching.
NH: Will he wind up with a 190 wRC+? No. Can he be an above average hitter the rest of the year? I'm not seeing any reason why not.
MM: MarGo had a .298 OBP coming into the season. Blummer talks a lot about him chasing the back foot slider until this point in his career. If he can continue his strong walk rate (12.2% this season, against a career 5.1%), I guess he has a chance at a late-career breakout.
What will the next 30 games hold?
AC: So, here are the opponents until G60 (or 64, at which point the Astros will have played 40%-ish of the season): 2 vs Atlanta, 4 at New York, 3 at Miami, 3 vs Cleveland, 4 vs Detroit, 3 vs Baltimore, 3 at Minnesota, 3 at Texas, 4 at Kansas City, and 3 vs Anaheim. That's 17 games on the road. The Astros also play 10 games against the Yankees, Orioles, and Indians, who are all shaping up to be good teams. The four-game set against the Yankees later this week will be another measuring-stick series, to see if the Astros are this good, or the rest of the AL West is that bad.
NH: I really think this team can hang with every team on their schedule, and being on the road should not bother the offense too much. I'm not expecting another 20-10 record, but, if they post a winning record over the next 30 days it will bode very well. This is the toughest stretch they'll face this season, and it's not particularly close.
MM: I think that the Astros may return to earth a little in the next 30 games, but should maintain their lead in the AL-West. The huge comebacks will dry up a little. They need to avoid injuries to the starting rotation, and get some innings allocated to the back end of the bullpen. If they can keep playing solidly, they should build on this start, but obviously not at a .686 clip. I think they will maintain their division lead at or above five games, which is probably the most important thing.
Aside from "Wooo!!", what are your thoughts on the season so far, in a sentence or less...
MM: The Astros have done what they needed to do to this point - pound on division rivals with a 17-6 record.
AC: The Astros have been able to make up for their own shortcomings, either through offense when the pitching is bad or pitching when the offense is bad.
NH: Season is playing out as planned, explosive offense and solid bullpen making up for league average starting pitching.
What do you think has been the most important ingredient in the Astros' fast start??
MM: The 2017 Astros were drawn up to be a team with no holes, unlike every other Astros team since the early naughties. Their stars, perhaps aside from Altuve, all have room to grow and get better (sorry about the Altuve height reference), and what the Front Office did this year was to add some solid lefty bats to augment those guys. As a result, and as often referenced, the Astros bat solidly from 1 through 9.
Looking at the fWAR rankings for the position players illustrates this point nicely. Through approximately the first month of the season, there have been some outstanding performances from non-Astros: Bryce Harper leads baseball with a 2.4 fWAR already. Miguel Sano, Freddy Freeman, Mike Trout, Eric Thames and Ryan Zimmerman (!) all sit slightly back just over 2.0 fWAR - those are the six position players over 2 for the season so far.
The leading Astro in terms of fWAR?? The recently-hit Carlos Correa (1.2), followed by... no other Astros above 1.0 fWAR. But, of the other seven major position players only Carlos Beltrán sits in negative territory (-0.4). Springer, Altuve and McCann have all contributed (just under 1 fWAR), as have part-timers MarGo (1.0) and El Oso Blanco (0.5).
Similar story with the pitchers: the leading pitcher via fWAR is Chris Sale with 2.4. The leading Astro is AL Pitcher of the Month, Dallas Keuchel (1.1); closely followed by starters Charles Morton and Lance McCullers (0.8) and reliever Chris Devenski (1.0). Mike Fiers sits at -1.0 fWAR for the season, so he is the worst-performed Astro this season. And no one expects a >40% HR/FB rate to continue.
So no outstanding, season-long performances as yet for the Astros, just solid contributions from almost everyone.
AC: They've gotten production from everywhere. Like MM said, there hasn't been one person you look to and think, "they're carrying this team." (Maybe Marwin?) But it still doesn't feel like the whole team has clicked together yet. Gregerson and Giles are a little concerning. Mike Fiers is a lot concerning. Bregman hasn't found his power yet. And still they're leading the division. This is fun.
NH: The depth of the lineup has paid dividends in the late innings. I'm not sure if this is a real factor, or something I've made up, but it really seems like running out 9 above average hitters consistently has worn pitching staffs down, allowing for the late inning explosions. The team is putting up a .343 OBP, and a 121 wRC+ overall. In the last 30 days, excluding that odd opening, it's .351 and 127. Keep that up, and this team will cruise.
The Astros' Pythagoran record is 22-13 (168 runs for, 127 against). Anything worrying y'all about the Astros moving forward??
AC: No, it's about time this franchise caught some breaks.
NH: That's hardly extreme. Nothing about their performance this far screams regression. Team BABIP is pretty normal. They are outperforming their FIP but matching their xFIP. This is a team who was expected to be good and has been good
Who are you watching in the minors who can help the 2017 Astros from on the Farm???
MM: Tony Sipp (4.05 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 5.62 xFIP) has been better of late, but he has only been used in a mop-up role recently. I don't think that he is the (touches wood) postseason lefty for the Astros. So I am interested in the lefties on the farm, and they don't have to be good against righties.
In Fresno, Ashur Tolliver (9.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP) and Sean Stutzman (8.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.731 WHIP) have been used in short relief only (six and three games respectively). Reymin Guduan has been used more (13 games, 15.2IP) but hasn't been good (8.62 ERA, 1.787 WHIP).
I mentioned Michael Freeman in the last roundtable, and he has been used a lot (13 games, 19 IP), recording good results in Corpus (3.32) without good peripherals (19 H, 16 BB, 14K, 1.842 WHIP). Stutzman was the standout lefty here in a small sample prior to his promotion (5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 8K).
Further down the farm in Buies Creek, Framber Valdez has thrown 25.2 innings in 6 games (4 starts). He has a 1.247 WHIP, with 31 strikeouts against 15 walks. Cionel Perez has to be added to the 40-man at the end of the year (thanks to the Astros rescinding their initial offer because of his physical exam), and he has appeared in 3 games for the River Bandits (all starts), through 10 innings, with a 11.70 ERA.
So, yeah, interest, but no one standing out. The next Astros LOOGY will come from outside the organisation, it seems.
AC: I would have said Brady Rodgers, because he was the one bright spot in the rotation, so I guess I default to Frankie Tuesday after Rodgers' Tommy John surgery last week. The Astros do need another arm, and Martes would be the one guy to do it that wouldn't cost any prospects. I don't see anyone making an Altuve/McCullersesque jump and coming straight from Double-A. So Fresno is what you get.
NH: Gurriel has been really weird, and we still have no idea who he is. .095/.095/.095 first 8 games, .451/.472./.686 next 14, .152/.243/.182 next 9. Reed has been good in AAA, but not great (.282/.406/.455, 27% K rate). I'm really curious to see which of those two winds up the Astros 1st baseman in the second half.
MarGo: breakout year or just a blip of awesomeness??
AC: Blip of awesomeness, unless it just took him six years to figure out Major-League pitching.
NH: Will he wind up with a 190 wRC+? No. Can he be an above average hitter the rest of the year? I'm not seeing any reason why not.
MM: MarGo had a .298 OBP coming into the season. Blummer talks a lot about him chasing the back foot slider until this point in his career. If he can continue his strong walk rate (12.2% this season, against a career 5.1%), I guess he has a chance at a late-career breakout.
What will the next 30 games hold?
AC: So, here are the opponents until G60 (or 64, at which point the Astros will have played 40%-ish of the season): 2 vs Atlanta, 4 at New York, 3 at Miami, 3 vs Cleveland, 4 vs Detroit, 3 vs Baltimore, 3 at Minnesota, 3 at Texas, 4 at Kansas City, and 3 vs Anaheim. That's 17 games on the road. The Astros also play 10 games against the Yankees, Orioles, and Indians, who are all shaping up to be good teams. The four-game set against the Yankees later this week will be another measuring-stick series, to see if the Astros are this good, or the rest of the AL West is that bad.
NH: I really think this team can hang with every team on their schedule, and being on the road should not bother the offense too much. I'm not expecting another 20-10 record, but, if they post a winning record over the next 30 days it will bode very well. This is the toughest stretch they'll face this season, and it's not particularly close.
MM: I think that the Astros may return to earth a little in the next 30 games, but should maintain their lead in the AL-West. The huge comebacks will dry up a little. They need to avoid injuries to the starting rotation, and get some innings allocated to the back end of the bullpen. If they can keep playing solidly, they should build on this start, but obviously not at a .686 clip. I think they will maintain their division lead at or above five games, which is probably the most important thing.
Monday, April 3, 2017
Astros County Roundtable Season Preview
Here at AstrosCounty.com, we occasionally all get together in our oversized boardroom to offer our opinions of all things Astros...
Welcome, team. Let me know your thoughts heading into a promising-looking season.
Let's start by critiquing the Astros' offseason...
MM: I think the Astros largely did what the needed to do. They had a plan - go out and get two lefty hitters (McCann and Reddick) and solidify the DH position somewhat. As you may have heard, they didn't trade for pitching, preferring to get an under-the-radar guy who may be a late bloomer. I think it was a solid offseason, and they kept their core intact, which is what matters.
Joel: Lots of activity at the outset, and then all was quiet on the western front the rest of the way. The Astros absolutely need another starter, and another left-handed relief option, but their lineup is so deep, so versatile, and so well-balanced, that they could conceivably lose Correa AND Altuve for a stretch of time and be okay (I'll knock on four different kinds of wood right now). I'd give the offseason a solid B+.
MM: That said, I don't think anyone saw the offseason collapse like it did. EE saw his value dive, anyone could have had Joey Bats for 2-years-for-40MM, and Mark Trumbo looked like he could have been unemployed for the 2017 season. Angel Pagan is still unsigned. So who knows what would have happened if the 'stros had waited. They clearly had a list, and they got it done, but perhaps they would have been better waiting.
(Not Hank): I'm of two minds about the offseason. I love what they did with the offense, and I think they they are set up to have a monstrous season with the bats. I also expected them to add a pitcher. Maybe not an ace, but someone you can plop down in the three spot and count on for 180 plus inning. Musgrove is solid, but has never pitched more than 150 innings in a season, Martes cannot really be counted on this season, I don't think. McCullers' health is a question mark. McHugh is starting the season on the DL. Morton is an enigma, wrapped in a mystery, smothered in secret sauce. I would love to have one more pitcher without these questions. My hope is the bats will be enough to carry the questions long enough to get some answers.
AC: I agree with Not Hank. I think they upgraded at a fair price, and refused to upgrade beyond what their projections reflected. This is the reason why Chris Archer or Jose Quintana won't be starting for the Astros this week.
Let's turn our attention to the future: what is going to be good this year??
Batguy: I think there are two major strengths for this squad. First is the offense. For the first time in a long time (maybe since 2004) the Astros have actual, major league hitters all the way down the lineup. Not only that, but they have a very solid bench as well. The other strength will be the bullpen. Even though there is a huge question mark where a lefty specialist should be, the Astros boast several well above average choices to finish out games this year.
AC: While I think everyone understands that Reddick is an upgrade over Rasmus, McCann/Gattis is an upgrade over Castro/Gattis, Gurriel is an upgrade over 2016 Reed/White, I'll go with the Bullpen. I think the Bullpen is going to be extremely solid, front-to-back. I'm concerned about the adjustment that hitters will make to Devenski, because it always seems to happen the year after the breakout year, and Sipp is a human question mark now, but it's very easy to not throw Sipp. Just let him hang out in the bullpen all year and pay him not to pitch. But Devenski-Feliz-Harris-Gregerson-Giles is going to be filthy, because I think Giles will be closer to what the Astros thought they were getting last year.
MM: I am most interested in the corners - both infield and outfield. I wonder if Bregman will take a while to get going, given he spent his Spring winning gold while warming the Team USA bench. But otherwise, we will have the infield corners populated by Gurriel, with a host of prospects waiting in the wings (mostly White, Reed, Moran and Davis). The outfield corners will be initially populated by some combination of free-agent signee Josh Reddick, Carlos the Jackal, Nori Aoki, Handsome Jake and George Springer, with another bunch of very interesting cats proximal to the big-league club (Preston Tucker, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez and Ramon Laureano to name a few). For once, there is interest and depth on the corner positions - Astros fans will be used to offensive black holes populating corner positions for most of the last decade, with more offensive black holes waiting to replace them.
Joel: A lot of things will go well for the Astros, but I'd pay particular attention to the team's strikeout rate. In particular, the effect the new guys will have on said rate. Last season, the Astros gambled on the notion that their feast-or-famine lineup in 2015 could overcome the famine again with minimal tinkering. They were wrong. If we add up the strikeouts by departed regulars Jason Castro (123 Ks in 329 ABs), Colby Rasmus (121 Ks in 369 ABs), Carlos Gomez (100 Ks in 295 ABs), and Jake Marisnick (83 Ks in 287 ABs), you total 427 strikeouts in 1,280 at-bats, or, one strikeout every three at-bats.
What are your worries regarding this year??
Batguy: My biggest worry is the rotation. While I think it's more likely that they'll be improved from last season, I recognize that there is a good bit of uncertainty in that prediction. When your top four starters all have the specter of injury hanging over them it's easy to envision the rotation disintegrating along with our playoff hopes.
AC: Yeah, the rotation. I've talked myself into accepting that Keuchel's 2016 was an aberration based on overcorrecting because of his shoulder. I've also talked myself into McCullers making 30 starts, but those could very easily be wrong. While the Astros do have some depth (Peacock, Fiers, and I think we could see Martes sooner than later if one of those top two guys struggle for an extended period), there are more question marks there than anywhere else on the team.
Joel: Like everyone, the rotation bugs me, but pitching always tends to sort itself out. The Astros are not devoid of talent, or even in-house options. If they stay pat and hold onto what they have, someone will jump out and bite the rest of the league. Francis Martes, Chris Devenski, Michael Feliz, or someone else. My big concern is the Astros giving up too much for a quick fix. The Gomez/Fiers trade and the Scott Kazmir deal, both in the 2015 season, backfired. Have Luhnow and company learned a lesson there? This is the challenge with a front office that has to transition from rebuilding to re-tooling. It's not like fire sales, where you dangle the prize for a contending team and they begrudgingly surrender three of their top 10 prospects. The role is reversed and while we can laud the current regime for their organization-building talents, can they perform the kind of maintenance and upkeep that improves the team short-term without sacrificing the long-term. Right now, that's what separates a guy like Luhnow from a guy like Theo Epstein.
MM: My main worry is also probably the team strength. The Astros seem to have some depth (or at least equivalent depth) on the corners, but I think they are relatively exposed up the middle. Which happens when you have a projected 15-or-so WAR concentrated into four positions there. Altuve has two real talents - everything he does on the baseball field, and health. Any change to the latter, and that could spell disaster for the Astros' campaign. Springer has had many health concerns historically. An injury to Brian McCann also means a significant drop off at catcher and policing the league for sass-mouth, and forces Evan Gattis into a role which I am waaaay less comfortable with. Correa is probably real good, but he needs to remain healthy, and guys hanging around the second-base bag can have sudden, unforeseen, catastropic things happen to them. An injury to the middle infield is a little more palatable if Bregman is playing well. An injury to anywhere else up the middle may be a real problem that could cost the Astros their campaign.
(Not Hank): See my first response. The rotation might be fine. It could even be good. I just wish there were fewer questions.
What prospects are y'all keeping your eye on??
MM: Garrett Stubbs is the prospect I am most interested in. We all saw him taking a catchon the outfield grass near the third base bag to end the exhibition game against the Cubbies. He is a catcher who apparently calls a smart game, and he ended the season in Corpus last year, where he slashed .325/.401/.517 in 137 PA's. 2017 is going to be critical in his development - at 24, his time is close, but he has a year or two to sort it out. Brian McCann also has two full seasons to run on his contract - so Stubbs may be seeing significant time with the Astros toward the second half of the season.
Batguy: I agree on Stubbs. I think he's really forced his way into our attention and it will be interesting to see if he continues to impress. I'm also going to be watching Daz Cameron. After his struggles his first two professional seasons he needs to start putting his tools to use.
AC: Time will tell, but I think the Astros made the right call in holding onto Francis Martes this off-season. He can be a productive member of the active roster by July if everything goes right. I'm also interested in this Carlos Correa kid at short. I will be keeping my eye on Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher. One of those guys could be The Guy in the outfield next season, allowing the Astros to move on from the pipe dream that is Jake Marisnick. I want to see where Framber Valdez opens 2017 and if he can recreate his past 12 months, forcing his way into the bullpen if Sipp struggles.
Joel: Derek Fisher. If Fish can find some consistency at the dish in the early-going at Fresno, he will be the first name Luhnow and Hinch look to after the spring he just had. I do love how Garrett Stubbs made one, insane defensive play, and now everyone is looking at him as the heir apparent to Astros legend, Brian McCann.
MM: Guys - too much agreement here. So I am throwing another name out here, and one to rival the Constable's out-of-left-field pick. Micheal Freeman. One of the only genuine lefty relievers in the Astros' upper minors of note. He is a big unit, listed at 6-8, 235. He is 25, so his time is now-ish. He spent last year getting lit up in Corpus, but the big league club has a huge vacuum, and if he is as good as he was in Quad Cities and Lancaster (36.1IP, 20H, 4ER, 33K, 14BB) then he could really push his case. Sadly, everything since mid-2015 has been suck (58.1IP, 7.10ERA, 30K, 37BB). But... reliever ups and downs and all of that, and the Astros have a large-sized need there at the moment.
(Not Hank): I want to see something from Daz Cameron this year. They basically stole him in the draft, but the tools have not translated yet. Showed some progress in A- but was awful in A ball before his injury. He just turned 20, and has time to figure it out is still a long way away, but this year will be important for his development. I also think Derek Fisher takes a step forward and pushes for the opening day LFer next season. I don't see much room in the outfield for him.
Name one Bold Prediction for Personnel (makeup of the 25 man) that will happen prior to the ASB.
Batguy: Charlie Morton leads the rotation in ERA.
AC: Like Fister did last year? My bold prediction is that Francis Martes will have made one start for the Astros prior to the All-Star Break.
MM: Tony Sipp will no longer be an Astro by the end of June. Released. Anyone in the Astros organisation who can throw strikes with the left hand and has some kind of decent breaking pitch will get a look.
Joel: Both Charlie Morton (due to injury) and Collin McHugh will no longer be in the rotation, and will be replaced by Joe Musgrove (who McHugh supplants in late April) and Francis Martes.
Sum up the Astros in 2017 in 10 or fewer words...
Joel: Ben Reiter was right. Probably.
Batguy: There will be runs. Oh yes, there will be runs.
AC: Don't Go Breaking My Heart.
MM: This "team" is a fake team. Bad!
(Not Hank): We're going to fall for it again, aren't we?
Welcome, team. Let me know your thoughts heading into a promising-looking season.
Let's start by critiquing the Astros' offseason...
MM: I think the Astros largely did what the needed to do. They had a plan - go out and get two lefty hitters (McCann and Reddick) and solidify the DH position somewhat. As you may have heard, they didn't trade for pitching, preferring to get an under-the-radar guy who may be a late bloomer. I think it was a solid offseason, and they kept their core intact, which is what matters.
Joel: Lots of activity at the outset, and then all was quiet on the western front the rest of the way. The Astros absolutely need another starter, and another left-handed relief option, but their lineup is so deep, so versatile, and so well-balanced, that they could conceivably lose Correa AND Altuve for a stretch of time and be okay (I'll knock on four different kinds of wood right now). I'd give the offseason a solid B+.
MM: That said, I don't think anyone saw the offseason collapse like it did. EE saw his value dive, anyone could have had Joey Bats for 2-years-for-40MM, and Mark Trumbo looked like he could have been unemployed for the 2017 season. Angel Pagan is still unsigned. So who knows what would have happened if the 'stros had waited. They clearly had a list, and they got it done, but perhaps they would have been better waiting.
(Not Hank): I'm of two minds about the offseason. I love what they did with the offense, and I think they they are set up to have a monstrous season with the bats. I also expected them to add a pitcher. Maybe not an ace, but someone you can plop down in the three spot and count on for 180 plus inning. Musgrove is solid, but has never pitched more than 150 innings in a season, Martes cannot really be counted on this season, I don't think. McCullers' health is a question mark. McHugh is starting the season on the DL. Morton is an enigma, wrapped in a mystery, smothered in secret sauce. I would love to have one more pitcher without these questions. My hope is the bats will be enough to carry the questions long enough to get some answers.
AC: I agree with Not Hank. I think they upgraded at a fair price, and refused to upgrade beyond what their projections reflected. This is the reason why Chris Archer or Jose Quintana won't be starting for the Astros this week.
Let's turn our attention to the future: what is going to be good this year??
Batguy: I think there are two major strengths for this squad. First is the offense. For the first time in a long time (maybe since 2004) the Astros have actual, major league hitters all the way down the lineup. Not only that, but they have a very solid bench as well. The other strength will be the bullpen. Even though there is a huge question mark where a lefty specialist should be, the Astros boast several well above average choices to finish out games this year.
AC: While I think everyone understands that Reddick is an upgrade over Rasmus, McCann/Gattis is an upgrade over Castro/Gattis, Gurriel is an upgrade over 2016 Reed/White, I'll go with the Bullpen. I think the Bullpen is going to be extremely solid, front-to-back. I'm concerned about the adjustment that hitters will make to Devenski, because it always seems to happen the year after the breakout year, and Sipp is a human question mark now, but it's very easy to not throw Sipp. Just let him hang out in the bullpen all year and pay him not to pitch. But Devenski-Feliz-Harris-Gregerson-Giles is going to be filthy, because I think Giles will be closer to what the Astros thought they were getting last year.
MM: I am most interested in the corners - both infield and outfield. I wonder if Bregman will take a while to get going, given he spent his Spring winning gold while warming the Team USA bench. But otherwise, we will have the infield corners populated by Gurriel, with a host of prospects waiting in the wings (mostly White, Reed, Moran and Davis). The outfield corners will be initially populated by some combination of free-agent signee Josh Reddick, Carlos the Jackal, Nori Aoki, Handsome Jake and George Springer, with another bunch of very interesting cats proximal to the big-league club (Preston Tucker, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez and Ramon Laureano to name a few). For once, there is interest and depth on the corner positions - Astros fans will be used to offensive black holes populating corner positions for most of the last decade, with more offensive black holes waiting to replace them.
Joel: A lot of things will go well for the Astros, but I'd pay particular attention to the team's strikeout rate. In particular, the effect the new guys will have on said rate. Last season, the Astros gambled on the notion that their feast-or-famine lineup in 2015 could overcome the famine again with minimal tinkering. They were wrong. If we add up the strikeouts by departed regulars Jason Castro (123 Ks in 329 ABs), Colby Rasmus (121 Ks in 369 ABs), Carlos Gomez (100 Ks in 295 ABs), and Jake Marisnick (83 Ks in 287 ABs), you total 427 strikeouts in 1,280 at-bats, or, one strikeout every three at-bats.
Now, replace those four (with Marisnick in a more defensive sub/pinch runner sort of role) with Nori Aoki (45 Ks in 417 ABs), Carlos Beltran (101 Ks in 552 ABs), Josh Reddick (56 Ks in 398 ABs), and Brian McCann (99 Ks in 429 ABs), what you end up with is 301 strikeouts in 1,796 at-bats, or, one strikeout every SIX at-bats.
Essentially, the Astros have added contact ability, which will lead to more men on base, more chances for opposition error, and, nearly inevitably, more runs. It's not something people are focusing a lot on right now, but the Astros pose a legitimate threat to lead the AL in runs scored, and it may not be close.
(Not Hank): Like everyone else said, the offense. Here are the projected wOBA (from FanGraphs Depth Charts) for the 10 best hitters the Astros have. As a reminder, a .320 wOBA is average.
.357
.355
.351
.333
.333
.330
.328
.326
.314
.312
Notice I said ten. That's a full lineup, plus 1, of average or above hitters. Some will miss low, others will miss high. But based on these projections, FanGraphs thinks the Astros will have the best offense in baseball. It's pretty exciting.
(Not Hank): Like everyone else said, the offense. Here are the projected wOBA (from FanGraphs Depth Charts) for the 10 best hitters the Astros have. As a reminder, a .320 wOBA is average.
.357
.355
.351
.333
.333
.330
.328
.326
.314
.312
Notice I said ten. That's a full lineup, plus 1, of average or above hitters. Some will miss low, others will miss high. But based on these projections, FanGraphs thinks the Astros will have the best offense in baseball. It's pretty exciting.
Batguy: My biggest worry is the rotation. While I think it's more likely that they'll be improved from last season, I recognize that there is a good bit of uncertainty in that prediction. When your top four starters all have the specter of injury hanging over them it's easy to envision the rotation disintegrating along with our playoff hopes.
AC: Yeah, the rotation. I've talked myself into accepting that Keuchel's 2016 was an aberration based on overcorrecting because of his shoulder. I've also talked myself into McCullers making 30 starts, but those could very easily be wrong. While the Astros do have some depth (Peacock, Fiers, and I think we could see Martes sooner than later if one of those top two guys struggle for an extended period), there are more question marks there than anywhere else on the team.
Joel: Like everyone, the rotation bugs me, but pitching always tends to sort itself out. The Astros are not devoid of talent, or even in-house options. If they stay pat and hold onto what they have, someone will jump out and bite the rest of the league. Francis Martes, Chris Devenski, Michael Feliz, or someone else. My big concern is the Astros giving up too much for a quick fix. The Gomez/Fiers trade and the Scott Kazmir deal, both in the 2015 season, backfired. Have Luhnow and company learned a lesson there? This is the challenge with a front office that has to transition from rebuilding to re-tooling. It's not like fire sales, where you dangle the prize for a contending team and they begrudgingly surrender three of their top 10 prospects. The role is reversed and while we can laud the current regime for their organization-building talents, can they perform the kind of maintenance and upkeep that improves the team short-term without sacrificing the long-term. Right now, that's what separates a guy like Luhnow from a guy like Theo Epstein.
MM: My main worry is also probably the team strength. The Astros seem to have some depth (or at least equivalent depth) on the corners, but I think they are relatively exposed up the middle. Which happens when you have a projected 15-or-so WAR concentrated into four positions there. Altuve has two real talents - everything he does on the baseball field, and health. Any change to the latter, and that could spell disaster for the Astros' campaign. Springer has had many health concerns historically. An injury to Brian McCann also means a significant drop off at catcher and policing the league for sass-mouth, and forces Evan Gattis into a role which I am waaaay less comfortable with. Correa is probably real good, but he needs to remain healthy, and guys hanging around the second-base bag can have sudden, unforeseen, catastropic things happen to them. An injury to the middle infield is a little more palatable if Bregman is playing well. An injury to anywhere else up the middle may be a real problem that could cost the Astros their campaign.
(Not Hank): See my first response. The rotation might be fine. It could even be good. I just wish there were fewer questions.
What prospects are y'all keeping your eye on??
MM: Garrett Stubbs is the prospect I am most interested in. We all saw him taking a catch
Batguy: I agree on Stubbs. I think he's really forced his way into our attention and it will be interesting to see if he continues to impress. I'm also going to be watching Daz Cameron. After his struggles his first two professional seasons he needs to start putting his tools to use.
AC: Time will tell, but I think the Astros made the right call in holding onto Francis Martes this off-season. He can be a productive member of the active roster by July if everything goes right. I'm also interested in this Carlos Correa kid at short. I will be keeping my eye on Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher. One of those guys could be The Guy in the outfield next season, allowing the Astros to move on from the pipe dream that is Jake Marisnick. I want to see where Framber Valdez opens 2017 and if he can recreate his past 12 months, forcing his way into the bullpen if Sipp struggles.
Joel: Derek Fisher. If Fish can find some consistency at the dish in the early-going at Fresno, he will be the first name Luhnow and Hinch look to after the spring he just had. I do love how Garrett Stubbs made one, insane defensive play, and now everyone is looking at him as the heir apparent to Astros legend, Brian McCann.
I kid because I care. Stubbs is another intriguing guy because, unlike Castro, or even Max Stassi, he can actually make contact, take a walk, and just generally be something less than helpless with a stick in his hand. He seems a little small to hold up for an entire season, but he has room to fill out.
MM: Guys - too much agreement here. So I am throwing another name out here, and one to rival the Constable's out-of-left-field pick. Micheal Freeman. One of the only genuine lefty relievers in the Astros' upper minors of note. He is a big unit, listed at 6-8, 235. He is 25, so his time is now-ish. He spent last year getting lit up in Corpus, but the big league club has a huge vacuum, and if he is as good as he was in Quad Cities and Lancaster (36.1IP, 20H, 4ER, 33K, 14BB) then he could really push his case. Sadly, everything since mid-2015 has been suck (58.1IP, 7.10ERA, 30K, 37BB). But... reliever ups and downs and all of that, and the Astros have a large-sized need there at the moment.
(Not Hank): I want to see something from Daz Cameron this year. They basically stole him in the draft, but the tools have not translated yet. Showed some progress in A- but was awful in A ball before his injury. He just turned 20, and has time to figure it out is still a long way away, but this year will be important for his development. I also think Derek Fisher takes a step forward and pushes for the opening day LFer next season. I don't see much room in the outfield for him.
Name one Bold Prediction for Personnel (makeup of the 25 man) that will happen prior to the ASB.
Batguy: Charlie Morton leads the rotation in ERA.
AC: Like Fister did last year? My bold prediction is that Francis Martes will have made one start for the Astros prior to the All-Star Break.
MM: Tony Sipp will no longer be an Astro by the end of June. Released. Anyone in the Astros organisation who can throw strikes with the left hand and has some kind of decent breaking pitch will get a look.
Joel: Both Charlie Morton (due to injury) and Collin McHugh will no longer be in the rotation, and will be replaced by Joe Musgrove (who McHugh supplants in late April) and Francis Martes.
I'll name two because this is a free country. The Astros WILL acquire a starter WITHOUT surrendering Martes, but will definitely surrender Kyle Tucker.
MM: I also live in a free country. And, while Joel is pounding on McHugh, I don't think he finishes the year as an active Astro, either. Probably injured. I am concerned about his ability to get the job done while pumping gas in the high 80's.
(Not Hank): You want BOLD, I'll give you bold. Marisnick hits well enough to force himself into the lineup more often than we are expecting, pushing Beltran to a near every day DH position. Gattis is pushed to a backup catcher position, for which he is ill suited. Something will have to be done about this, and I don't know what.
(Not Hank): You want BOLD, I'll give you bold. Marisnick hits well enough to force himself into the lineup more often than we are expecting, pushing Beltran to a near every day DH position. Gattis is pushed to a backup catcher position, for which he is ill suited. Something will have to be done about this, and I don't know what.
Sum up the Astros in 2017 in 10 or fewer words...
Joel: Ben Reiter was right. Probably.
Batguy: There will be runs. Oh yes, there will be runs.
AC: Don't Go Breaking My Heart.
MM: This "team" is a fake team. Bad!
(Not Hank): We're going to fall for it again, aren't we?
Thursday, March 30, 2017
The Astros have an awesome new CF camera (updated)
So you may have heard:
(as a wise and learned reader pointed out, this was in fact from Rogers Center, not MMP)
I think Jason Grilli may be the pitcher, andEvan Gattis Jose Altuve the batter. But, yeah, gives a good account of where the CF camera used to be - well off the the side, and well, kind of low.
Here is a still, lifted from FanGraphs, showing a Jose Altuve home run at MMP. This makes the point nicely about the CF camera angle. It isn't quite as bad as the Rogers Center, but it is still low and toward the 3B side of the pitching mound.
Pleasant surprise as I tuned in to the last of the televised preseason games for 2017. Behold...
- The new season is nearly upon us
- The Astros broke camp and returned to MMP for the first time since the end of the 2016 season and
- the new CF renovations have just been opened
I couldn't find much information about this in the offseason, but I secretly wished for a new CF camera angle. Santa was involved. Previously, the camera angle was off to the 3B side of the plate by a fair way, and I thought it made strikes hard to see, and the quality of contact from the batter difficult to ascertain.
You want proof?? While, because I sometimes watch game on my iPad, and because I am old, clumsy and tend to mash buttons at random on the aforementioned iPad, I happen to have a screenshot from a random August telecast last year. So the below photo is from 2016...
(as a wise and learned reader pointed out, this was in fact from Rogers Center, not MMP)
I think Jason Grilli may be the pitcher, and
Here is a still, lifted from FanGraphs, showing a Jose Altuve home run at MMP. This makes the point nicely about the CF camera angle. It isn't quite as bad as the Rogers Center, but it is still low and toward the 3B side of the pitching mound.
Pleasant surprise as I tuned in to the last of the televised preseason games for 2017. Behold...
If you ever want to watch a lefty paint the corners (looking at you, Dallas Keuchel!!) then this is a great angle to have. The camera position looks a little more elevated, and slightly toward the 1B side of the mound. The head of some pitchers will obscure the plate at the set, but the plate is clearly seen during the pitch. Some CF camera angles can be too high so as to make it hard to see low balls and strikes, but this one isn't.
My impression was that it was easier to see whether a pitch was a ball or a strike, and whether contact was hard or soft; or fair or foul. Overall, I thought the angle was far superior to the last one, so all my Christmas wishes have been fulfilled, now.
(I also thought that the new TV team seemed to gel nicely, and it was a pretty solid telecast overall)
What did everyone think??
Sunday, March 19, 2017
Houston Astros 2017 national broadcast schedule
I am not renewing my MLB.TV subscription this year. The last couple of years, I've noticed that I am watching the games less and less. I know that's hard to believe after spending so much time watching the team struggle to even get 60 wins.
Usually, I'll have the game on the background while I work or play video games. I'll stop and watch key moments, but for the most part the games are just background noise. I am also reducing how much time I spend on social media. Astros Twitter is great, but being a few minutes behind on MLB.TV is not great. At certain times I had to turn away from Twitter to avoid spoilers.
I still plan to watch the team. I'm going to watch when the Astros are the free game of the day on MLB.TV and when they're on a national broadcast. I've tracked down the national broadcast schedule. I thought it's a useful bit of information for others who are in similar situation.
The full list
Tuesday, April 11, 2017 - 9:10 p.m. CT - Houston Astros at. Seattle Mariners on MLB Network
Thursday, April 27, 2017 - 5:10 p.m. CT - Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians on MLB Network
Sunday, May 14, 2017 - 6:35 p.m. CT - Houston Astros at New York Yankees on MLB Network
Saturday, May 27, 2017 - 6:15 p.m. CT - Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros on Fox
Saturday, June 3, 2017 - 6:15 p.m. CT - Houston Astros at Texas Rangers on Fox
Saturday, June 17, 2017 - 7:15 p.m. CT - Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros on Fox
Saturday July 1, 2017 - 6:15 p.m. CT - New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros on Fox
Usually, I'll have the game on the background while I work or play video games. I'll stop and watch key moments, but for the most part the games are just background noise. I am also reducing how much time I spend on social media. Astros Twitter is great, but being a few minutes behind on MLB.TV is not great. At certain times I had to turn away from Twitter to avoid spoilers.
I still plan to watch the team. I'm going to watch when the Astros are the free game of the day on MLB.TV and when they're on a national broadcast. I've tracked down the national broadcast schedule. I thought it's a useful bit of information for others who are in similar situation.
The full list
Dates the Houston Astros are scheduled to broadcast to a national audience:
Thursday, March 30, 2017 - 6:35 p.m. CT - Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros on MLB Network (out-of-market only)Tuesday, April 11, 2017 - 9:10 p.m. CT - Houston Astros at. Seattle Mariners on MLB Network
Thursday, April 27, 2017 - 5:10 p.m. CT - Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians on MLB Network
Sunday, May 14, 2017 - 6:35 p.m. CT - Houston Astros at New York Yankees on MLB Network
Saturday, May 27, 2017 - 6:15 p.m. CT - Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros on Fox
Saturday, June 3, 2017 - 6:15 p.m. CT - Houston Astros at Texas Rangers on Fox
Saturday, June 17, 2017 - 7:15 p.m. CT - Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros on Fox
Saturday July 1, 2017 - 6:15 p.m. CT - New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros on Fox
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