Monday, October 4, 2010

Remembering the 2010 Season Predictions

Now that *sniff* the 2010 season is in the books, let's take a look back and see just who said what, and how correct they were.

Nostradami

*On January 28, PECOTA said the Astros would finish 75-87, with a .264/.330/.403 line, with 766 runs scored and 829 runs against.

Well, the Astros did finish 76-86, so good for them, but they grossly overestimated the Astros' offense. They actually finished with a .247/.303/.362 line, 611 runs scored and 729 runs against.

*March 24 - The Boston Globe's Tony Masarotti ranked the Astros #13 in the NL. They were actually 12th.

*April 1 - The Sporting News was prescient, despite picking the Cardinals to win the division, and the Cubs to win the Wild Card:
1. Lance Berkman, recovering from knee surgery, will hobble through another season and the Astros will bid him farewell.
2. Tommy Manzella will play strong defense but won't hit enough to be rookie of the year.
3. Jason Castro will emerge as the regular catcher because of J.R. Towles' continued hitting struggles.


Blind squirrel > Nut

*On February 9, CHONE posted a disclaimer-laden prediction of a 73-89 Astros record.

*March 30 - Caller-Times' Joel Roza puts the Astros at 74-88.

*March 30 - MLB.com's John Schlegel picks the Astros 5th.

*April 2 - Baseball Prospectus picks the Astros to go 78-84, tied for 3rd.

*April 2 - Keith Law: 73-89, 5th place

*April 5 - Brian McTaggart: 79-83

Stevie Wonder throwing darts

*On March 5, Fire Brand of the AL predicted a 72-90 finish, for 5th place.

*On March 23, BetFirms said:
The Astros didn’t do enough in the offseason to improve their roster, as Brett Myers and Pedro Feliz are merely fill-ins. Lindstrom won’t be the best answer at closer as he’s too erratic, so expect more blown saves this season.

*March 24 - the Perpetual Post's Howard Megdal:
This looks like the worst team in baseball in 2010 to me.

*March 29 - Jon Paul Morosi says the Astros will finish last in the NL Central, with the Brewers winning the division, and the Reds in 4th.

*March 31 - SI's Albert Chen picks the Astros to go 69-93, and says:
The Astros...added expensive, nonimpact veterans, among them starter Brett Myers, third baseman Pedro Feliz and reliever Brandon Lyon.

One out of three gets you in the Hall of Fame.

*April 2 - 28 of 35 ESPN experts picked the Cardinals to win the division. Though Nostradami labels go to Aaron Boone, Jon Weisman, and Pedro Gomez as they pick the Reds to win the NLC.

*April 4 - Ft. Worth Star-Telegram: Last place.

*April 5 - Jonah Keri:
Owner Drayton McLane is one of the most stubborn characters in baseball, refusing to trade stars like Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt – same as he did with Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio – preferring instead to watch their immense talent wither on the vine, and the team fail to build anything decent around them.

*April 27 - Cardinals blog Redbird Rants:
The Cards should cruise to the division title by August. After that, it’s a jumble of mediocre teams. I’ll go with the Cubs to finish second because they have the talent to do so. But Chicago is also somewhat of a mess. Cincinnati should hang around with their young talent and Milwaukee and Pittsburgh should be competitive. The Astros are already planning for 2011.
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Just like a smartass, who makes fun of everybody else's predictions and doesn't make their own, we didn't post our thoughts on 2010. But in a separate email to a couple of buddies, The Constable did say the following:

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Giants
NL Wild Card: Braves

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Mariners
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

Yankees over the Braves in six.


The lunacy of the Mariners pick overshadows - and discredits - the fact that he nailed three of the four NL picks.

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