Thursday, January 28, 2010

You say PECOTA, I say...(well, that didn't work)

Baseball Prospectus posted their PECOTA rankings with projections for 2010. And while everyone will be in various stages of denial over BP picking the Yankees to miss the playoffs, we're obviously interested in the Astros, and the NL Central. So let's get to it:

PECOTA's 2010 NL Central









TeamRecordRS/RAAvg/OBP/SLG
Cards89-73802/724.267/.339/.416
Reds82-80780/772.255/.328/.414
Cubs77-85779/823.262/.336/.408
Astros75-87766/829.264/.330/.403
Brewers75-87827/895.260/.332/.433
Pirates70-92754/873.256/.328/.400


A couple of things to note:

-This is obviously a one game improvement over 2009.
-The Astros posted a .260/.319/.400 line in 2009, so PECOTA is predicting that the Astros will be better in every slash line aspect.
-The Reds will have a kickin' slugging percentage, but the lowest batting average in the Central. Despite all of that, the Reds are supposed to finish second.
-The Brewers will score a ton of runs, and give a ton more up, and still finish with the same record as the Astros.
-The Pirates will do what they always do.

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