Monday, May 17, 2010

What can we expect in a trade?

Okay, so the two guys who are likely to be moved are obviously Berkman and Oswalt. Oswalt has the highest trade value, since he's been a titty-baby over the last month or so, and is more motivated to apparently get out of dodge.

Citizen Spruce asked the following question:
All right, Constable, a question for you: What would you like to see the Astros get in return if they were going to trade Roy?

Well, the Mets report this morning drew some good comments:

From OremLK:
They have several good SS/2B prospects: one of Ruben Tejeda, Wilmer Flores, or Reese Havens would all be a good centerpiece. Pitchers Brad Holt or Jeurys Familia could be intriguing throw-ins....There's no way you're going to get multiple ML ready A-/B+ prospects for Oswalt... not on that contract. The best case is probably more like a couple B- guys and filler, and maybe not even that.

From Joe:
Havens and Familia with a C guy...I love how everyone on thinks we will easy net Mejia, Davis, and Havens because they have no clue how Oswalts value has diminished over the past three years. Funny to hear someone who actually has a grasp on the truth.

The crux of this is what the Astros want in return. You all know that I believe my own conspiracy theory that Ed Wade overpaid for Lyon to force Detroit into signing Jose Valverde, thus getting two extra draft picks.

Under my own, possibly deluded, thinking, I could see how the Astros would be willing to eat some (or most) of Roy's contract to get better prospects and replenish the top of the farm system.

If it's just salary relief, then a couple of B/C prospects might get the job done. If the Astros want someone like Ike Davis (whom I have a hard time believing the Mets would part with), then they will have to eat a part of his contract.

The whole Trade Oswalt scenario comes down to expectations, and what the Astros are out to accomplish. But as John Royal points out this morning, this Oswalt v. Houston Astros Base Ball Club could get ugly. The more Oswalt whines, the worse the trade market will get for Easy Eddie. I think we've all made peace with the fact that Oswalt is going to get sent to a farm in Connecticut, where he'll get to run with other pitchers, but let's hope that he keeps the whining to a minimum so as not to sink what teams are willing to do to get him.


Michael said...

I think you have to consider the Rangers as well. They've recently said they would move Smoak for someone that would "put them over the top". If the Astros eat some of the contract, that would be a hell of a trade and allows you to either decline Berkman's option while Smoak is in RR for the rest of the season, or ship Berkman off somewhere and pick up some B prospects.

Reuben said...

I think Nolan Ryan has been a big Oswalt fan since Roy was in AA, so that could be a factor.

OremLK said...

The trouble with the Rangers idea is their ownership situation at the moment. It's hard to see them taking on a contract even remotely close to Oswalt's... otherwise it would be the most likely destination.

Now, maybe they could make the trade if the Astros agreed to basically eat all of the remaining money on Oswalt's contract, at least for 2010 (maybe allowing the Rangers to pick up the tab starting next year when this is all worked out?). Even then, there are a lot of moving parts right now for Texas and I have a hard time seeing that happening, especially since Drayton is unlikely to eat a traded player's salary.