Monday, May 17, 2010

What can we expect in a trade?

Okay, so the two guys who are likely to be moved are obviously Berkman and Oswalt. Oswalt has the highest trade value, since he's been a titty-baby over the last month or so, and is more motivated to apparently get out of dodge.

Citizen Spruce asked the following question:
All right, Constable, a question for you: What would you like to see the Astros get in return if they were going to trade Roy?

Well, the Mets report this morning drew some good comments:

From OremLK:
They have several good SS/2B prospects: one of Ruben Tejeda, Wilmer Flores, or Reese Havens would all be a good centerpiece. Pitchers Brad Holt or Jeurys Familia could be intriguing throw-ins....There's no way you're going to get multiple ML ready A-/B+ prospects for Oswalt... not on that contract. The best case is probably more like a couple B- guys and filler, and maybe not even that.

From Joe:
Havens and Familia with a C guy...I love how everyone on thinks we will easy net Mejia, Davis, and Havens because they have no clue how Oswalts value has diminished over the past three years. Funny to hear someone who actually has a grasp on the truth.

The crux of this is what the Astros want in return. You all know that I believe my own conspiracy theory that Ed Wade overpaid for Lyon to force Detroit into signing Jose Valverde, thus getting two extra draft picks.

Under my own, possibly deluded, thinking, I could see how the Astros would be willing to eat some (or most) of Roy's contract to get better prospects and replenish the top of the farm system.

If it's just salary relief, then a couple of B/C prospects might get the job done. If the Astros want someone like Ike Davis (whom I have a hard time believing the Mets would part with), then they will have to eat a part of his contract.

The whole Trade Oswalt scenario comes down to expectations, and what the Astros are out to accomplish. But as John Royal points out this morning, this Oswalt v. Houston Astros Base Ball Club could get ugly. The more Oswalt whines, the worse the trade market will get for Easy Eddie. I think we've all made peace with the fact that Oswalt is going to get sent to a farm in Connecticut, where he'll get to run with other pitchers, but let's hope that he keeps the whining to a minimum so as not to sink what teams are willing to do to get him.