Dave Borkowski helped Mike Foltynewicz

Here's a nice little profile on Mike Foltynewicz from his hometown paper, in which he credits his 2012 success to pitching coach Dave Borkowski.

Foltynewicz:

“We finally figured everything out. All the parts were clicking. Basically, my pitching coach and I sat down before the season and talked about everything. The mental part is big, getting prepared right before a game and getting prepared properly on the days leading up to your next start. We figured it out and I had one heck of a year.

Click the link for the whole story on strength and pitch selection. 

Angels sign Angel Sanchez

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have signed long-time Houston Astro of Houston Angel Sanchez to a minor-league deal, meaning that Sanchez will be able to tell the Angels all of the Astros' secrets, and ensuring that he must be eliminated. 

Not to be outdone with such a clever name signing, the Astros signed Astro McGillicuddy to a minor-league deal. 

Academy awfully sorry for selling new Astros merchandise before the Astros unveiled it

So it kind of spilled earlier today that Topps had accidentally tweeted out a picture of the new logo. That sucked. But when fan @Astromo1977 tweeted a pic he took at a Houston-area Academy of some new merchandise, it got fishy.

Turns out, yep, Academy had started selling the new Astros merchandise before the Astros had unveiled it.

This prompted an apology from Academy which basically said, "Yeah - we kind of nutted that...sorry. Looking forward to the launch!"

Astros claim Che-Hsuan Lin

The Astros claimed former Red Sox OF Che-Hsuan Lin off waivers today, and designated Enerio Del Rosario for assignment in the corresponding move.

Lin, a 24-year old 6'0" 180lb RHB out of Taiwan, signed as an amateur free agent in 2007 with Boston. He spent most of 2012 with Triple-A Pawtucket, hitting .247/.323/.316, with 65K:42BB in 445 plate appearances. His minor-league best was in 2010, when at Double-A Portland, he hit .275/.386/.343, with 63K:72BB.

Enerio Del Rosario, a waiver claim made by Ed Wade from Cincinnati at the end of the 2010 season, had a 6.01 ERA / 1.84 WHIP in 75 appearances - all out of the bullpen - for the Astros. In 19IP for Houston in 2012, Del Rosario allowed 34H/19ER, 11K:7BB for a nice round 9.00 ERA / 2.16 WHIP.

Logo Leak?

Sportslogos.net just posted an apparent leak of the Astros soon to be revealed new logo, as accidentally revealed by the Topps trading card company. Nothing real surprising as far as the logo goes, but between the doctored image that floated around a month ago and this, the official reveal November 2nd is shaping up to be a bit anti-climactic.

*Update* It seems the new logo can now also be found at local Academy stores.

Should the Astros Pursue Otani and Do They Have a Chance?

The big news on the prospect front is that one of the top prospects in Japan, Shohei Otani, has declared his intention to pitch in America.  Although he instructed Japanese teams not to draft him, he was selected by the Nippon Ham Fighters in the first round. I’ve seen conflicting information on this, but it looks like he will be still be able to sign with an MLB club at any time, despite being drafted. As he is not under contract with a Japanese team, he will not have to go through the posting process that often drives the price up on Japanese stars. Should the Astros pursue this intriguing talent? And do they have a chance of signing him?

According to available scouting reports, Otani is a tall, strong pitcher, who has been clocked in the high 90’s with his fastball, with less refined offspeed offerings including a slider, splitter and slow curveball. He has struggled significantly with his command. If he were in the MLB draft, he would likely be a first round talent, but no sure thing. The Astros need young pitching, and Luhnow has made it a point to stockpile as much first round talents as possible, though any avenue available. I fully expect the Astros to kick the tires on this high risk high reward signing.

In the most recent collective bargaining agreement, a cap was placed on international bonuses. For the 2012-2013 signing period, the cap was placed at $2.9 million for all teams. Penalties for exceeding that cap are harsh, but not as harsh as the penalties for exceeding the draft pool. Exceeding the pool by 10-15% carries a 100% tax and a $500,000 limit on bonuses to any one player in the next year signing period. Over 15%, the limit drops to $250,000. Depending on how each team views the potential of Otani, this might not serve as a deterrent for a large bonus. Jim Callis does not believe the cap will be a major factor in Otani's bonus. 

Beginning in the 2013-2014 signing period, the cap is based on the previous season's record, and the Astros would have a distinct negotiating advantage with $4.7 million in available bonuses. As it stands now, assuming Otani signs before July 2013, the playing field is relatively level. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers have shown interest, and the Rangers can use Yu Darvish as a recruiting tool.  If the Astros believe Otani represents a first round talent, I believe they should definitely pursue getting him into the system. I think they should be hesitant, however, to incur any penalties, particularly the year before their available bonus pool will increase. I don’t think we should get our hopes up too high. What say you?

Bogar turned down the Astros due to contract language

Jon Heyman is reporting that Tim Bogar turned down the Astros' Bench Coach job because they didn't want him interviewing for any other managerial openings.

Heyman:
Bogar is said to have turned down the offer to become the Astros' bench coach because Houston wanted it written into a multi-year offer that he couldn't interview for managerial jobs that might arise elsewhere, sources familiar with the situation say.

Luhnow didn't reply to Heyman's texts (plural), which only tells me that he's the right man for the job.

While it's odd that the stipulation would be written into the contract, I can understand it. The Astros are building for the long-term, and staff continuity is important. If a bench coach isn't interested in sticking around for a few years while the team completes its rebuild, then it's better to know now than to have to go through the process all over again next season.

What can Biggio expect from the BBWAA?

This winter will provide the best chance Astros fans have been waiting for since Nolan Ryan decided to wear a Rangers cap for all eternity - an Astros cap on a plaque at the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Craig Biggio's journey to baseball immortality will be tested for the first time this winter when the voting members of the Base Ball Writers Association of America get to stand on their soapboxes and vote on the eligible candidates, of which there are many.

The sanctimonious group will be judged fully in this space throughout December and early January when we're sure to get pissed off at somebody, but we can at least make some educated guesses as to what Biggio can expect from the BBWAA. Well, as close to an educated guess as you can get when trying to predict what a wholly unpredictable, asinine, holier-than-thou group of petty, vindictive voters will do.

Since 2000, there have been 184 players eligible in their first year of election. Only 24 received the 5% of the votes needed to remain on the ballot for a second year, but were not elected in their first year. Those players:

Roberto Alomar (2010), Jeff Bagwell (2011), Harold Baines (2007), Albert Belle (2006), Andre Dawson (2002), Juan Gonzalez (2011), Goose Gossage (2000), Orel Hershiser (2006), Barry Larkin (2010), Edgar Martinez (2010), Don Mattingly (2001), Willie McGee (2005), Fred McGriff (2010), Mark McGwire (2007), Jack Morris (2000), Rafael Palmeiro (2011), Tim Raines (2008), Ryne Sandberg (2003), Lee Smith (2003), Dave Stewart (2001), Alan Trammell (2002), Fernando Valenzuela (2003), Larry Walker (2011), and Bernie Williams (2012).

Now here's the thing about that list...

*Seven of the 24 received less than 10% of the vote (McGee, Gonzalez, Baines, Valenzuela, Stewart, Belle, and Williams).
*Nine more received between 10-30% of the vote (Palmeiro, Hershiser, Trammell, Walker, McGriff, Morris, McGwire, Raines, and Mattingly).
*So 16 players received less than 30% of the BBWAA's votes, and none of those 16 have been elected (yet, anyway).
*Of the eight players who got more than 30% of the vote in their first year of eligibility, five of them have since been elected to the HOF (Gossage, Dawson, Sandberg, Larkin, and Alomar), and the other three are Edgar Martinez, Jeff Bagwell, and Lee Smith.

We know what Craig Biggio has done. There's no doubt in Astros fans' eyes that Craig Biggio is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Twenty-eight players have racked up 3,000+ hits, and 24 of them are in the Hall of Fame. Who are the other four? Pete Rose (because he's a jackass), Derek Jeter (because he's still playing), Biggio, and Rafael Palmeiro (because he made a syringe-plugged ass of himself by wagging his finger at Congress before getting popped for PEDs - he got 12.6% of the vote in the 2012 election.). Furthermore, every eligible player with more than 2,900 hits is in the Hall of Fame.

We can look at Biggio's Similarity Scores and see that he is most similar to Hall of Famer Robin Yount, then - in order - future Room-of-Famer Derek Jeter (because a Hall isn't big enough to hold Derek Jeter's plaque), then Hall of Famers Joe Morgan, Paul Molitor, Roberto Alomar, and Cal Ripken.Well hey, this is interesting, because...

*Ten players since 2000 have been elected in their first year of eligibility: Wade Boggs (2005), Dennis Eckersley (2004), Rickey Henderson (2010), Tony Gwynn (2007), Paul Molitor (2004), Eddie Murray (2003), Kirby Puckett (2001), Cal Ripken (2007), Ozzie Smith (2002), and Dave Winfield (2001).

Molitor and Ripken - 4th- and 6th-most similar to Biggio were elected on their first ballot in 2004 and 2007, respectively, with 85.2% and 98.5%, also respectively. Robin Yount - the player assigned a value most similar to Biggio's career - was elected on his first ballot with 77.5% of the vote in 1999.

These are all facts. But the BBWAA isn't big on facts, and we can't count on them to agree on an AL MVP. I would like to think that we can count on the BBWAA to agree that Biggio belongs in the same company as Paul Molitor, Roberto Alomar, Robin Yount, and Ozzie Smith. But that may be as silly as hoping that everyone on Twitter agrees with your personal political views. (Timely simile!)

There is also a significant chance that many voters are going to write this election off, as it includes Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens, and Mike Piazza. Ask a lazy sportswriter to pass immortal judgment on this list and they'll happily write a column about the Sanctity of the Hall of Fame and the Purity of The Game. And then they won't vote for anybody, because they JUST DON'T KNOW EVERYTHING. Or, more accurately, they knew enough to not say anything, and now they can play the Saint card in the easiest December column for a Base Ball writer.

Or, there could be the counterpoint, where the BBWAA looks at the ballot, gets disgusted by the Usual Suspects and sees Biggio for what he is: A great player who has not been linked to PEDs. Tricky. If you asked me to put a range on where I would expect Biggio to land in his first election, I would give you two numbers:

Best-case scenario: A Yount-ian 75-80%.
Worst-case scenario: A Sandberg-ian 45-55%.

Thoughts?

Would you take a look at Melky Cabrera?

As you all are likely aware, back on August 15 Giants outfielder Melky Cabrera was suspended 50 games for an elevated testosterone level, indicating that he had taken Performance-Enhancing Drugs. In a prepared statement released by the MLBPA, Cabrera said:

“My positive test was the result of my use of a substance I should not have used. I accept my suspension under the Joint Drug Program and I will try to move on with my life.”

He did try to move on, but only after he (or one of his entourage) tried to cover it up, creating a fake chain of evidence that would make it seem like his roommates tricked him into smoking testosterone.

Though his 50-game suspension would run its course during the NLDS in which, of course, the Giants were not supposed to participate because the Dodgers had bought All The Players, and the Giants were losing the All-Star Game MVP who was hitting .346/.390/.516 in 113 games. Except the Giants didn’t activate him, or use him in the NLDS, and won’t be using him in the World Series (Jeff Passan has a great take on this here, and a counterpoint by Hank Schulman here).

The point of this isn’t to say whether the Giants should or should not use Melky for the next week, but rather to ask if the Astros should take a flyer on him.

Cabrera, who is 28 (and will be until August 2013), was probably in line for at least $50m from the contract he’ll sign this winter as a free agent. He won’t get anywhere near that, at least not right away. Cabrera will need a year of solid production before he gets his Big Contract.

Might that year come in Houston?

The Astros’ outfield production – at least offensively – was atrocious in 2012. As a group, they hit .220/.208/.349. Eight Astros outfielders hit 47 homers (Justin Maxwell had 18) and averaged a 92 OPS+. The only two players with an OPS+ over 100 were Maxwell and Fernando Martinez (both with a 105 OPS+). Yet they only combined for 482 plate appearances. Astros outfielders’ with an OPS+ under 80 include Jordan Schafer (63), Brandon Barnes (41), Brian Bogusevic (64), Travis Buck (63), and Ben Francisco (77). I was looking to see how this ranked against the rest of baseball and made it to Kansas City before I picked up my monitor and brought it down, thundering, over my own head, and then stood in a bathtub. (Not holding the plugged-in monitor, mind you. That would be dangerous.)

Anyhow, the Astros need an upgrade. Right now, the only guys on the roster I’d halfway trust in the outfield for a full season would be Maxwell and Fernando Martinez and, given his knees, Martinez might be better suited as a DH. So there are open spots in the outfield.

You can see where I’m going with this, right? Should the Astros give Cabrera a one-year contract to help him build his value? I’m honestly asking, because it could go both ways.

Cabrera had a .906 OPS in his 113 games in San Francisco, and it’s completely appropriate to wonder if that was a result of the PEDs. In 2011, he posted a then-career-high .809 OPS in Kansas City. Prior to 2011 his career-high in OPS was .752, back in his rookie season in 2006. He just doesn’t have a track record where you can look and say, “Yeah, he’s that player.”

Also keep in mind the move to the AL. Sure, Cabrera hit .305/.339/.470 in 2011 for the Royals, but even with that taken into account, his AL slash line is just .279/.333/.406 – and though that’s still better than what the Astros might be running out in 2013, is it worth the baggage?

To read Schulman’s defense of the Giants organization, Cabrera doesn’t exactly sound like a clubhouse leader (there’s a little Twitter exchange going on about this with Jon Heyman – I’m not linking to him, you can find out for yourself if you’re so interested). The Astros also need all the positive press they can get – does a Cabrera signing further enrage fans? Will he bring more fans to Minute Maid? How many sane people look at the schedule and think, “Man. I gotta go see Melky F***in’ Cabrera!”

So, Astros fans, you have your choices in front of you. (A) Take a flyer on a guy who might not cost all that much, motivated to rebuild his reputation and salvage his career, so we don’t have to watch Jordan Schafer anymore. Or (B) leave Cabrera alone, because the guy just isn’t worth it.

Arizona Fall League update: October 23

While we take some time to recharge our collective batteries and work on some off-season projects, let's check in with the AFL team...

Mesa and Phoenix lamed it out for a 7-7 tie yesterday.

George Springer: 1x5, 2K (hitting .286/.444/.536)
Jon Singleton: 0x4, 3K:1BB (hitting .255/.364/.511)

Nick Tropeano: 1IP, 0H/0ER, 1K:1BB (2.57 ERA / 0.71 WHIP)
Alex Sogard: 0.2IP, 2H/4R (3ER), 1K:1BB, Blown Save (11.57 ERA / 2.79 WHIP)
Chia-Jen Lo: 1IP, 0H/0ER, 2K:1BB (3.00 ERA / 0.83 WHIP)

Hunsicker joins Dodgers

Former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker has left the Rays (where he was senior vice president of baseball operations) to join the Dodgers as their senior advisor of baseball operations, assisting president Stan Kasten and GM Ned Colletti.

Highlights from Porter presser today

New Chronicle Astros beat writer Brian Smith has been live-tweeting the Bo Porter introductory press conference today like a boss. Some things we learned:

Porter:
This is not a stepping stone for me. I'm not looking to build the Houston Astros into a championship organization and go somewhere else. I'm all in.

*Conflicting reports about Tal's Hill and the Train. Either Jim Crane will not be altering Tal's Hill or the train for the 2013 season, or a decision will be made next week. Of the two, most likely to change will be Tal's Hill.
*Matt Galante, senior advisor for baseball operations since 2009 (and who had previously been with the organization from 1980-2001), had an option to return to the team in 2013, but has declined in order to pursue other opportunities.
*The Astros will be spending money this off-season, and will be targeting OF/DH positions.
*Coaching staff positions will be announced in phases, not all at once. Names being considered are "recognizable."
*Matt Dominguez - based on a strong conclusion to 2012 - is early favorite for 3B1 in 2013, but Brandon Laird and Brett Wallace are possibilities.
*Your first three rotation spots are locked down with Harrell, Lyles, and Norris (order given by Luhnow), but SP4 and SP5 are up for grabs. Luhnow wants to have nine SPs available to get through the season.
*Minute Maid Park will get an updated paint job, but only after November 2. 

Why I Am Rooting for the Cardinals

I was born in St. Louis. This information might get me kicked out of Astros County, but its true. We moved to Houston in 1990. As a result, for my first 8 years I was a Cardinals fan. Ozzie Smith was my favorite player. His homerun in the 1985 NLCS  was one of my earliest memories. When Jack Buck said “Go crazy, folks, go crazy,” I did, along with my Dad.

I am not a Cardinals fan now. It did not take long for Biggio, Bagwell, Caminiti, etc. to steal my heart from the Cardinals.  The Astros were on every night in my house, and they were good. Ozzie Smith was replaced by Jeff Bagwell. My Dad adopted the Astros as his own too. He cheered for them, and was heartbroken for them, and we watched them together.

For a while it was easy to still like the Cardinals. Especially when they weren't very good in the late 90’s and the Astros were winning the division nearly every year. Then they started to become rivals. The division started to go through them. Then 2004 happened. That was a fantastic series and I lived and died with every pitch. And my formerly beloved Cardinals broke my heart in game 7.  A year later, one strike away, a Cardinal ripped my heart out. That story had a happy ending. When the Astros made their first World Series, I called my Dad. We celebrated for our new team.

My feeling towards the Cardinals had shifted. It started happening earlier, but in 2004 and 2005, there was a clean break. The Cardinals were no longer my other team, the team I held on to for Ozzie’s sake. They were the enemy. I actively rooted against them, and began lumping them into the same category as the Yankees.   

Thing is, my Dad was also born in St. Louis. Only he didn't leave when he was 8. His favorite player was also Ozzie Smith, but before that it was Lou Brock, and before that Bob Gibson, and before that Stan Musial. That’s a lot of history. When the Cardinals began their improbable (impossible?) runs in 2006, 2011 and now 2012, I greeted it with frustration. My Dad, however, is still a fan. He cheered. When the Cardinals pulled out that ridiculous comeback against the Nationals last Friday, I got a text message the next day from my Dad saying “How about those Redbirds.” I did not share his enthusiasm.

My Dad is sick. We found out this weekend, just a couple days after the Cardinal's comeback. We don’t know how sick, but the news is not good. Baseball is so unimportant right now. There are so many more important things that bind us together. Our faith. Our family. But, baseball still means something. My Dad and I have enjoyed so many baseball moments together. Baseball comes up in nearly every one of our conversations. I can’t root against the Cardinals right now. If my Dad is rooting for the Cardinals right now, so am I. I hope you can forgive me. I am not really rooting for the Cardinals. I am rooting for my Dad.

Weekend Link Dump

*Awful news out of the organization, as Carlos Corporan and his wife Stephanie lost their 16-month old son over the weekend.

It came out this past April that Corporan's son had heart trouble, and had at least two heart surgeries as a premature baby. So everyone take a moment to offer one up to the Corporan family.

*John Sickels takes a look at how the Cardinals were built- sixteen of the 25 men on their post-season roster were acquired through the draft.

*"The best thing that could have happened to Jimmy VanOstrand was getting cut by the lowly Houston Astros."

*The Corpus Christi Caller-Times' Lee Goddard remembers the 1980 NLCS.

*The Sunshine Kids Foundation celebrated its 30th anniversary.

Arizona Fall League: Oct 12

While we try to figure out just exactly why God is trolling Astros fans with the Cardinals' win last night, enjoy a report from Mesa...

Mesa overcame a 4-run Surprise 1st inning to win 12-6.

Jon Singleton: 1x4, BB
George Springer: 2x3, 3B, HR, 2BB, 4RBI, 3 runs scored
Bobby Borchering: 1x4, HR, 2RBI, 3K:1BB

Chia-Jen Lo: 1IP, 0H/0ER, 1K:1BB

Former Astros

I thought it'd be fun to see how all the former Astros were doing so far in the playoffs.

Hunter Pence - .200/.200/.200 0 R 0 HR 0 RBI 1 SB
Carlos Beltran - .333/.421/.800 3 R 2 HR 4 RBI 1 SB
Troy Patton - 0-0 .2 IP 0.00 ERA 2 H  0 K 2 BB
Andy Pettitte - 0-1 7.0 IP 3.86 ERA 3 H 5 K 1 BB.

Never mind. That wasn't fun at all. Sorry about that.

UPDATE

Aubrey Huff - .000/.000/.000 0 R 0 HR 0 RBI  (3 AB)
Octavio Dotel - 0-0 1.0 IP 0.00 ERA 2 SO 1 BB
Jose Valverde - 0-1 1.2 IP 16.20 ERA 3 SO  BB.

That was embarrassing.  

Arizona Fall League: Oct 11

Mesa won their first game of the season by scoring the last five runs of the game for a 6-5 win over Surprise. Your PreStros:

Jon Singleton: 2x5, 2B, K
Bobby Borchering: 0x4, K
Nick Tropeano: 2IP, 0H/0ER, 3K - 18 pitches (!) and 12 for strikes

Prospects we watched in 2012

Back in February we mentioned a handful of minor leaguers that, for one reason or another, we thought fans should keep an eye on. Let's go back and see how they did.

Catcher

Consensus: Chris Wallace - Chris spent most of the season in Corpus and battled injuries as his bat took a step back this year. In 236 at bats he hit .254/.335/.390 with just five home runs after knocking 20 in 365 at bats last year. Defensively he caught just 12% of base stealers. Injured or not, this was a big step back for Wallace. He can't afford another season like this.

Under the Radar: Ernesto Genoves - Genoves repeated this season at Greeneville but failed to show improvement. His hitting fell off to .232/.306/.402 but he maintained his decent walk and strikeout rates. His caught stealing percentage dropped slightly to 25%, though he did a better job with passed balls by allowing just three after having nine last season. Had his bat continued to improve he would have started getting a little attention, but at this point he's heading for the dreaded "organizational depth" label. 

Make or Break: Rene Garcia - Garcia repeated at Lancaster most of the season, along with nine games at Corpus. While his batting average improved to .285 it was very empty, as he had no home runs and took just eight walks on the season. His rate catching base stealers declined for the third straight season while he showed little if any improvement preventing passed balls. A defense first minor leaguer with declining defensive performance won't last long.

First Base

Consensus: Jonathan Singleton - Singleton was everything we were hoping, and maybe more. He spent the year as a 20 year old at Corpus where he hit .284/.396/.497 with 21 home runs. He'll probably start the season in OKC, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Houston sometime in 2013.

Under the Radar: Mario Gonzalez - Mario flew so far under the radar in 2012 he ended up getting released in June just as the short-season leagues got started.

Make or Break: Kody Hinze - Kody's Corpus drop off continued in 2012 as he struggled to hit just .212/.299/.365 with 11 home runs. Hinze's age and struggles this season combined with the emergence of Jon Singleton led to Kody being released in August.

Second Base

Consensus: Delino DeShields - DDJ firmly re-established himself as a top prospect in 2012. Splitting the season between Lexington and Lancaster, DeShields destroyed the Astros organization stolen base record, swiping 101 bags, while hitting .287/.389/.428 with 12 home runs. While the stats don't necessarily reflect it, his defense at second base was noticeably improved as well.

Under the Radar: Brandon Wikoff - Brandon appeared in just 22 games for Corpus before being shut down in July due to a wrist injury. Not that it tells us much given the circumstances, but he hit .190/.297/.222. He'll be 25 next season and is now behind Jose Altuve, Jose Martinez, and, likely, DeShields on the depth chart.

Make or Break: Andrew Simunic - Simunic ended up spending most of his time at third base for Corpus this year along with a few games at short. Offensively, his results were decent if not predictable as he hit .290/.343/.338. He's 27 and he is who he is; a decent utility player who may be able to hold his own at the plate if pressed into emergency service.

Shortstop

Consensus: Jonathan Villar - Villar started slowly while repeating at Corpus, but started coming on strong midway through the season before breaking his hand throwing a tantrum. He finished the season hitting .261/.336/.396 while stealing 39 bases, increasing his walk rate, and decreasing his strikeout rate. His defense is still raw but, like the rest of his game, flashes high potential. He'll turn 22 next year and, while I don't think he's ready yet, will probably spend most of next season in AAA.

Under the Radar: Juan Santana - Juan made the jump stateside, playing in the Gulf Coast League this year. He split his time between 2B and SS and his defensive numbers at 2B were much stronger. His offensive numbers were very similar to what he posted last season in the Dominican except for his walk rate, which dropped dramatically. He was still just 17 last year, so we'll see what the next few years bring. He'll probably spend the 2013 season in short-season ball again.

Make or Break: Jiovanni Mier - Jio repeated at Lancaster as a 21 year old and looked like he was putting it together before suffering a hamstring injury that limited him to just 46 games in 2012. He hit a strong .292/.396/.409 while continuing to play solid defense. He'll slot in one level below Villar next season to start the year but if he can continue outperforming Villar by an appreciable margin he could leap frog him at some point next year.


Third Base

Consensus: Mike Kvasnicka - During Spring Training it was announced that Mike would move back behind the plate. That only lasted 26 games before splitting the rest of the season between RF and DH. He struggled through a brutal April, hitting .118/.167/.191. Moving out from behind the dish helped out as he posted OPS's of .820 and .819 in June and July before ending up on the DL for the rest of the season. He ended up with a line of .232/.275/.412 with 15 home runs. While it was nice to see his power start to show, he'll be 24 next season, he doesn't seem to have a position, and his bat hasn't shown the polish normally seen from player taken out of college. 

Under the Radar: Jonathan Meyer - Jonathan repeated at Lancaster and took a step back performance-wise. His walk rate was nearly cut in half and his power dropped off as well. He finished the year hitting .272/.315/.375 with eight home runs. A third base prospect that has a tough time producing in Lancaster likely doesn't have a long shelf life.

Make or Break: David Flores - David was released around the time this list was originally put together.

Outfield

Consensus: Ariel Ovando - Ovando spent another season in Greeneville and made positive strides on offense and defense. He hit .287/.350/.444 with six home runs while improving his walk rate and reducing the number of fielding errors he committed. Next year will be a real test as he's expected to play full-season ball for the first time at Quad Cities.

George Springer - George had the breakout year everyone was hoping for. He started the season in Lancaster where he put up a .955 OPS with 22 home runs and 28 steals before being promoted to Corpus for the final month of the season. His strikeout rate was a little concerning, as he whiffed 156 times in 506 at bats, but he also showed a good eye at the plate. His swing is described being all or nothing, so improving his two-strike approach should help. He'll likely start the season back at Corpus, but another strong showing like he had this season will get him promoted quickly.

Domingo Santana - Santana is another guy who made big strides in 2012. As a 19 year old in the California League, he hit an impressive .302/.385/.536 with 23 home runs. His strikeout rate remained high but his walk rate improved to over 10%. He also continued showing his strong arm, notching 12 outfield assists. If he continues to develop at this rate, he and Springer have the potential to be 2/3 of an All-Star outfield.

Under the Radar: Brandon Meredith - Brandon made good strides playing all season in Lexington. He hit .278/.377/.506 in 316 at bats with a strong walk rate, 15 home runs, and 12 steals. Don't be surprised if he has huge numbers in Lancaster, but Corpus will be the real test for him.

Teoscar Hernandez - At 19 years old, Teoscar made the jump stateside from the Dominican League. His numbers dipped a bit, but that's not unusual for players in their first year playing in the U.S. He hit .243/.323/.401 while stealing 10 bases in 11 tries. He made sure he brought his arm with him as he racked up 11 outfield assists.

Adam Bailey - Bailey battled injury as he split time between Lancaster and Corpus with a cameo in OKC. He hit .264/.309/.440 with 10 home runs in 318 at bats. He's another outfielder who put up double digit assists as he gunned down 10 runners.

Make or Break: Grant Hogue - Grant had a late start to the season after recovering from a broken hamate bone but did his best to make up for lost time. In 43 games with Lancaster he hit .361/.421/.458 while stealing 27 bases. His small sample size strong showing likely bought him a little more time to prove himself.

T.J. Steele - Steele "hit" just .141/.184/.268 in 26 games for Corpus before getting released. He was later signed by San Diego where he played a month in AA before getting released again.

Jon Gaston - Gaston was released prior to the season.

Starting Pitcher

Consensus: Jarred Cosart - Cosart was limited to just 114.2 innings due to lingering blister issues, but pitched well between Corpus and OKC. He finished the year with a 3.30 ERA and saw his K/9 tick back up over seven, something that had been a bit of a concern given his stuff. Don't be surprised to see him in Houston some time next year.

Brett Oberholtzer - Brett struggled badly at the beginning of the season but got stronger as the season progressed to post a 4.37 ERA with a 3.4 K/BB rate in 166.2 innings split between OKC and Corpus. His final month, at AAA, he put up a 2.45 ERA in 40.1 innings. If he can avoid another slow start he, too, could see time in Houston in 2013.

Paul Clemens - Clemens started the season in OKC but performed very poorly before getting sent back to Corpus for the final month of the season. In 143.1 total innings he had a 5.78 ERA and his K/9 slipped to 6.6. There have been suggestions that he may be better suited to the bullpen.

Mike Foltynewicz - Repeating in Lexington worked out well for Folty as he went 14-4 with a 3.14 ERA in 152 innings. His peripherals snapped back to where they were expected to be, but a walk rate that has creeped up each year should be watched closely. He still seems to struggle a bit with composure but did make strides in his mound presence as well.

Kyle Weiland - Weiland had a strong Spring Training and started the season in Houston's rotation but made just three starts before going down for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. He is expected to be ready in time for the 2013 season.

Under the Radar: Luis Ordosgoitti - Ordosgoitti got hit hard and often this season in Lexington, appearing to get weaker as his first year in full-season ball went on. In 103 innings he posted a 5.42 ERA. He's still just 20 and should be able to better handle a full schedule next year. I expect him to bounce back.

Nick Tropeano - Tropeano started popping up on prospect lists after a strong season split between Lexington and Lancaster. In 158 innings he pitched to a 3.02 ERA while striking out more than a batter an inning. I'd like to see how he handles Corpus next season. A strong showing there will get a lot of prospect watchers excited.

Carlos Quevedo - Quevedo switched almost exclusively to the bullpen in 2012, and it suited him well. While keeping his BB/9 low at 1.7, his K/9 soared to 10.0 as he posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 86.2 innings between Lexington and Lancaster. Expect to see his stock rise quickly if he can keep up this type of performance out of the pen.

Kyle Hallock - Kyle suffered through injury in 2012, putting up an 8.22 ERA in 30.2 innings between Lexington and a rehab stint with the Gulf Coast team. Hopefully he can make a full recovery and get back on track next year.

Jake Buchanan - Buchanan spent most of the season in Corpus with a cup of coffee in OKC and pitched to a 5.25 ERA in 142.1 innings. His strikeout and walk rates were in line with his career numbers, but he gave up nearly 12 hits per nine innings. Another year in Corpus will tell us whether or not he can make it.

Make or Break: Jonnathan Aristil - Aristil moved to the bullpen this season and must have racked up a ton of frequent flyer miles as he was repeatedly shifted back and forth from Corpus to OKC. The shuffling didn't suit him as his ERA was 5.87 in 46 innings. Given his performance and the way the organization used him as bullpen filler it's likely that Aristil's days are numbered.

Robert Donovan - Donovan was released before the season started.

Sergio Perez - Sergio moved to the bullpen for OKC in 2013 but the move didn't help his results much. In 75.1 innings he pitched to a 4.54 ERA with just 1.6 K/BB. I'll be surprised if he's back next season.

Relief Pitcher

Consensus: Jack Armstrong - Armstrong underwent Tommy John surgery before the season started. He'll be back on the mound next season.

Adrian Houser - Houser's peripherals in Greeneville were much better than his results would indicate. In 58 innings his ERA was 4.19, along with a K/9 of 8.4, BB/9 of 3.6, and H/9 of 8.2. He's still highly thought of among prospect followers.

Under the Radar: Alex Sogard - Sogard pitched exclusively out of the bullpen, starting the season in Lancaster before spending most of the year in Corpus. In 69.2 innings he posted a 3.62 ERA and earned a spot as one of the Astros delegates to the Arizona Fall League.

Mitchell Lambson - Lambson continued dominating the hitters in the lower minors while he spend most of the season in Lexington after starting the year in Greeneville. In 46 innings he put up a 2.15 ERA and an outstanding 10.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9.

Ryan Cole - Ryan was released before the season.

Evan Grills - Grills had a rough time in Lexington this year. In 71.1 innings he had a 4.92 ERA with a K/BB of 1.8 while giving up 11 home runs. I had a chance to see him pitch this season and his stuff seems to match these results; nothing particularly overpowering or deceptive.

Matison Smith - Matison was released before the season.

Make or Break: Pat Urckfitz - Pat had a bounce back season in Lancaster. In 66.1 innings he had a 3.66 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Next season should see him get a second shot at Corpus.


If there's one thing we learned this year, it's that minor league relief pitchers, particularly ones below the AA level can disappear with no warning and no apparent reason. We also saw the minor league system make outstanding strides as their U.S. located teams posted the best total winning percentage of all 30 organizations. The bulk of the talent seems to be concentrated in Lancaster and Corpus, though the lower levels show a lot of promise as well. Once these kids start hitting Houston in another couple seasons we should see the Astros begin to reap the fruits of their rebuild.

Three elect free agency

According to Baseball America, Brian Bixler, Angel Sanchez, and Travis Buck - Astros sometimes-minor-leaguers - have elected free agency:

Bixler got 96 plate appearances in 36 games, "hitting" .193/.253/.330 with 2HR, 36K:7BB. At OKC, he hit .269/.346/.361.

Sanchez went from being the Astros' Opening Day shortstop in 2011 to a minor-league free agent at the end of 2012. In 102 games for OKC in 2012, he hit .320/.390/.407, with 25K:40BB - the best minor-league season of his career.

In 33 games (81 PAs) for Houston in 2012, Buck hit .216/.284/.311, with six extra-base hits. In 22 games for OKC this season, he hit .359/.414/.469.

Playoff Team Construction

 As you might have noticed, the Astros didn’t make the playoffs this year. Oh, so close. Obviously, the goal of all fans is to see their team win it all, and for that, you need to construct a team that will make it to the second season. After that, it’s a crapshoot.  Just ask Billy Beane. As we get ready to watch a slate full of meaningful Astroless games, once again, let’s take a look at how each of the 8 teams that made the playoffs were constructed,  to see which model the Astros should take to get them back to their rightful place. Rankings from the worst model to the best.

Orioles

The Orioles were 29-9 in one run games this year. They went 16-2 in extra innings. They outscored their opponents by only 7 runs, and exceeded their Pythagorean record by 11 wins. Not to take anything away from them. They are in, and they have as good a shot as anyone.  If someone can figure out exactly HOW they did it, and a way to replicate it, the Orioles path to the playoffs seems like the way to go. I mean, that’s easier than actually taking the time to get good. Until then, let’s maybe try a different way.

Yankees

The Yankees path to the playoffs is essentially to be the Yankees. The Red Sox tried to be the Yankees, with varying degrees of success. The Dodgers are currently a couple months into trying to be the Yankees, and the early returns are not promising. Something tells me the Astros, who have questioned whether hiring a certain broadcaster is in their budget, won’t be taking the “be the Yankees” path anytime soon.

Tigers

Tigers’ path:

1. Acquire the best pitcher in baseball
2. Acquire the best hitter in baseball
3.  ?????
4.  Profit

That is obviously an oversimplification, as they got great seasons out of Austin Jackson, Prince Fielder and Max Scherzer. But they are definitely taking a stars and scrubs approach to team building. That works when your stars are Cabrera and Verlander. Maybe Correa and McCullers could be that for the Astros, but I think a better bet would be a more balanced approach.

Giants

The Giants have had a consistent run of success based primarily on their young starting pitching. They drafted Cain, Lincecum and Bumgarner, and that trio led them to the World Series in 2010.The offense has typically lagged behind, and this year was no different, although the offense saw improvement with the rise to MVP status of Buster Posey. They caught lightening in a bottle with their young pitchers, but that is always a risky proposition. If the Astros were able to get pitchers of that caliber through the draft, I’d be all for it. However, TINSTAAPP (There is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect), which is why I was thrilled with the pick of Correa over Appel in this year’s draft. 

Reds

For whatever reason, the Reds have been unable to find any consistency. They won the division two years ago, with 91 wins, dropped below .500 last year, and returned to 97 wins this year. I can’t figure this team out, and I have nothing interesting to say. There are better ways to build a team, but there are worse ones too. Next team, please.

Athletics

Ah, the sabermetric darlings of baseball, immortalized in Moneyball, the book and movie. Win by exploiting market inefficiencies on a limited payroll, and then get beat at your own game by teams exploiting the same inefficiencies with a bigger payroll. They are back, and this time with an all-rookie pitching staff and their best offensive players a castoff from Boston and a Cuban rookie. They are absolutely a model for making the most of limitations, and making the playoffs against all odds. Thing is, Houston is not a small market, and should be able to combine the A’s smarts with a little bit of money.   

Cardinals

The Cardinals are a model franchise. They have finished below .500 once in the last ten years, making the playoffs 9 times since 2000, and winning the World Series twice. They have replenished their team through the draft, despite not drafting particularly high. They have supplemented with smart free agent acquisitions, without overly burdening their future. They experienced a small drop off with the loss of Pujols, but not enough to keep them out of the playoffs. (They actually had a better run differential this year than last, FWIW). They are a lot like the kid in college who knows exactly what he needs to do to make an A, and does no more and no less. (Okay, that kid was me.) You’ll let us win the division with 83 wins. Okay – we’ll win the World Series. We need to win the wild card, and it will take an epic collapse from the team we are chasing? Okay – we’ll win the World Series. You will add a 2^nd Wild Card, and we’ll need to play a play-in game on the road? Okay – you see where this is going. If the Astros can emulate the long term success of this franchise, everyone will be happy. I choose to give Luhnow 100% credit for all of the Cardinals' success, and am sure he will be able to duplicate that run in Houston in a couple years. So why are they number 2?

Nationals

After a couple mediocre seasons, team loses 100 games two years in a row, and as a result picks first in the next two draft. Sound familiar. That was Nationals in 2008 and 2009. After losing 81, 91 and 89 games, the bottom dropped out and they lost 102 and 103 in consecutive seasons. That afforded them generational talents in Harper and Strasburg, and combined with several other smart acquisitions, got them in the playoffs as the number 1 seed in the NL just three years later. They are an example of how the draft system is supposed to work, and how you don’t have to get stuck in the same rut teams like the Pirates and Royals have been in for so long. Maybe the Astros won’t be on the same time table, but the Nationals are proof that we could be watching the Astros play these meaningful September games, and sooner rather than later.