Carlos Pena Apparently Retired / Broadcasting

News via MLBTR today that ex-Stro Carlos Pena has joined the booth at the MLB Network.  Comments about his well-liked and articulate nature were made in the article.

Although Pena was only an Astro briefly, he is involved in one of my favourite 2013 highlights - a walk off three run shot against the Brewers.  The other cool bit about that highlight??  Josh Fields was standing on third, having pinch-run for Carlos Corporan, who was batting in the four hole.

Pena was later DFA'd, and bounced around a bit, later appearing in the Rangers system.  He never quite matched his career years with the Rays, where he did two things well - walk and mash (when given the right pitch).

That highlight also kind of demonstrates how low the Astros were in the first half of 2013.  Corporan batting four??  Things have certainly improved since then.

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

While we try to figure out what to write next, Czech out these lynx:

*#AstrosCatfish.

*Bo Porter is still pissed about the 2012 NLDS, and sees similarities between that Nationals team and the 2014 Astros.

*Grantland, and SI, on George Springer

*Anthony Bass is close to going on a rehab assignment, Jose Veras threw a bullpen session in Kissimmee, and a cable provider is looking to drop CSN Houston.

*Here is a fantastic article on how Brent Strom overhauled Shane Reynolds...in Venezuela in 1991.

*There will soon be more security measures in place at Minute Maid Park.

*Here is a newspaper that thinks David Carpenter still pitches for the Astros.

*Former Astro Carlos Pena signed a minor-league deal with the Rangers.

*Rough week in baseball. Here is a touching tribute to Richard Durrett. Rest in Peace, and pray for his family and friends.

Shakeup!

Well well. After getting manhandled by the Mariners in a weekend series sweep, the Astros have decided to shake up the roster by designating Ronny Cedeno and Carlos Pena for assignment. Jonathan Villar has been recalled from Oklahoma City and will be the starting shortstop.

Ronny Cedeno, he of the .558 OPS (54 OPS+), is reportedly shocked at the news. Carlos Pena was a little more pragmatic about it, saying that, "In my mind, I was an Astro until the end...I'm very sad." He went on to say that he totally bought into Bo Porter and Jeff Luhnow, but he understands why he was let go.

So the Jonathan Villar Era begins. Villar, who turned 22 in May and came to Houston from Philadelphia in the Roy Oswalt trade, was hitting .278/.342/.444 for Oklahoma City in 90 games, but .299/.372/.482 since June 1.

There likely won't need to be another corresponding move since the Astros had already planned to call Cosart back up on Tuesday.

Tuesday Lunchtime Link Dump

Here's your Tuesday Lunchtime Link Dump:

*The Astros never made an offer to Lance Berkman:
"I totally understand and it was probably the right thing to do given the plan that they have in place.”

*The New York Post is butt-hurt about the Astros' potential impact on the AL Wild Card race. 

*Players in whom the Astros are not interested (somehow this is news-worthy): Vlad Guerrero, Mike Carp.

*Roger Clemens has no plans to coach or manage.

*Jordan Lyles hasn't been assured of a rotation spot.

*Carlos Pena is mentoring Chris Carter.

The K-Stros?

One thing the Astros recent acquisitions have had in common is a tremendous ability to strike out. Depending on who wins the positions battles this spring, there is a legitimate chance that the Astros could field a team with 7 of the 9 starters who had a strike out rate greater than 20% last year (Castro, Wallace, Greene, Carter, Maxwell, Ankiel, Pena). There is a strong chance that the everyday starting lineup could have 4 players with a strikeout rate greater than 30%.(Carter, Maxwell, Ankiel, Pena).

We could be looking at a historic strikeout team. Only 12 teams in history have struck out greater than 1300 times. The all time record was set by the Diamondbacks in 2010 with 1529. No other team has exceeded 1400. The American League record was set by the Athletics last year with 1387. Using Baseball Prospectus's depth chart, combined with 2012 strikeout rates, the Astros project to strikeout 1556 times. That is a very rough projection, but I think its fair to say that the Astros will at least join the 1300 strikeout club, and potentially threaten the AL and possibly the ML record.

But what does that mean? The list of high strikeout teams includes some truly abysmal offenses, including the 2012 Astros, who were dead last in the majors in runs scored. However, it includes a number of league average or better offenses as well. I don't think you can say that if the Astros increase their strikeouts from a year ago, they will necessarily decline offensively. Carter might strikeout at a higher rate than anyone and still be the best offensive player on the roster. However, its worth paying attention to as the spring develops, to see whether an effort is made to minimize the effects of these high strikeout additions in the final roster construction.

Comparing the 2012 Astros' Position Players to the League Average

After meeting Bill Brown, Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace, and J.R. Richard on Friday, I was intoxicated by the small taste of that which I have been craving since the end of last season. Baseball. It was my first experience meeting major league personnel in any capacity, (other than running in to Larry Dierker at Larry's Big Bamboo), and it left an impression on me to say the least.

Bill Brown asked my name and I couldn't help but grin from ear to ear like a 10 year old. It brought back the nostalgia of walking into the Astrodome when I was a kid, memories of orange folding chairs with huge cushions, and up close views of Kevin Bass and Jose Cruz at the plate seen through binoculars. I was young and simply enjoyed being there; a fan of the spectacle not yet involved in the love affair to come. It reminded me of an innocence that I will never have again. But part of that innocence lives on every season in positivity of possibility. It had me so ready for the season to begin that it was hard for me to look back at last year, a year that was the lowest of lows in the Astros' franchise relative to the major league club. But I did look back, and with an eye to the average player.

Recently I came across the numbers of the league average slash line of batting average/on base percentage/and slugging for every defensive position aside from pitcher from the 2012 season. Most people hear the word average and think not very good, but in the baseball world average is actually pretty good. These numbers are a compilation of at bats from anyone who played the position and swung the bat. Some of the numbers I have put together are slightly skewed by the fact I could no locate a position per at bat break down. So I had to lump in some players total at bats for one position, even though they contributed at multiple spots. However, the biggest chunks of AB's for each position were accounted for accurately, so that the numbers should only be slightly skewed.

C
League: .248/.318/.400
Houston:  .234/.313/.386
The catching platoon of Snyder and Castro were fairly close to league average last season. However, Snyder hit a lowly .176 compared to a .257 average from Jason Castro and a .269 average from limited ab's from Carlos Corporan. So if Castro can have more plate appearances this year and Corporan can provide as a serviceable back up, Houston should have a better showing at the catching position in 2013.

1B
League: .262/.336/.442
Houston: .266/.306/.428
Although I was not able to identify every AB at every position, I was able to only include the Houston at bats from players who were traded during the season. Carlos Lee, B. Wallace, and Scott Moore made up the majority of the AB's I used for the 1B position. Moore out slugged and got on base at a higher clip than Wallace and Lee but Lee hit for a better average than the Wallace and Moore. Wallace and Moore had similar averages and each out slugged Caballo. Overall probably a similar showing at the 1B position in 2013, depending on how much 1B Pena plays and if and when Singleton is called up. Probably higher slugging, similar OBP, and lower average.

2B
League: .257/.318/.383
Houston: .239/.286/.309
The majority of AB's came from Jose Altuve at the 2 bagger spot last year, but not all as Altuve did miss some time due to injury last year. These numbers are below average and well below average in the slugging department. If Altuve can stay healthy, these numbers probably look better.

3B
League: .266/.327/.427
Houston: .268/.329/.418
Surprisingly solid numbers at the 3b position last year. Between Chris Johnson's .276/.329/.428 and Matt Dominguez's .273/.310/.477 lines, the numbers look pretty good. But when you include the lines of Steve Pearce and Brandon Laird the average and slugging dip. Though Dominguez will likely not slug at a rate of .477 the 3rd base position could have another nice showing in 2013.

SS
League: .257/.318/.378
Houston .241/.296/.408
The only category where Houston' short stops performed above league average was in the slugging department, and a healthy Jed Lowrie, yes healthy, means the possibility of a similar result from the SS position in 2013.

LF
League: .261/.326./431
Houston: .227/.284/.356

CF
League: .265/.330/.418
Houston: .220/.303/.360

RF
League: .262/.327/.434
Houston: .220/.305/.406

The 3 outfield positions were where Houston really suffered last year, in all categories. It is pretty brutal to look at. The main silver lining I can see is the possibility of a higher slugging percentage provided by a full season of JMax and Fernando Martinez, who slugged 427 and 466 respectively. Take away Brian Bogusevics slash line of 203/310/229 and things are already looking better. A repeat of productivity from the outfield in 2013 would be tragic.

Here's to pitchers and catchers reporting in 2 weeks and to positivity of possibility.

Unzipped: Projecting the AL West

The ZIPS projections for the 2013 Astros season will be released later today, but instead of waiting for that, I decided to do a little projecting of my own.

Using baseballreference.com I established a home run  rate, strike out rate, and hit rate for each of the starting 9 of the 5 clubs in the AL West. I used mlb.com's depth chart to determine what players would be included. Using these numbers I projected what each player would do with a minimum number of major league at bats (486) if they started every game at that position. I did not include walks or obp because I was using the at bat stat for these projections and not plate appearances.

Instead of posting the actual numbers for each player, I decided to use the numbers to compare the overall output, in regards to these stats, by each team, giving a better idea of where the Astros could end up in relation to the rest of the AL West.

Disclaimer: These numbers are pulled from 2012 batting stats. Small sample size, potential FA signings, and pitching adjustments be damned.

Home Runs:
1. Houston Astros
2. LA Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers
5. Seattle Mariners

Top 3 players home run rate:
1. Josh Hamilton - LA Angels 13.069 AB/HR
2. Chris Carter - Oakland Athletics 13.62 AB/HR
3. Justin Maxwell - Houston Astros 17.5 AB/HR

I found the biggest surprise to be the home run numbers. The Astros and the Angels were neck and neck in the total home run numbers.The Angels line up has more proven AB's while the Astros line up is a projection based on a smaller sample of AB's. So I figure Houston's players may experience greater periods of slumps than the Angels line up. Or maybe they will take some developmental strides and surprise some people. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.

Maxwell, Lowrie, and Dominguez project as the top 3 home run hitters on the Astros.

Strike Outs: (greatest to least)
1. Oakland Athletics
2. Houston Astros
3. Seattle Mariners
4. LA Angels
5. Texas Rangers

Top 3 K rates:
1. Mike Olt - Texas Rangers K/2.5 AB (very small sample size)
2. Carlos Pena - Houston Astros K/2.7 AB
3. Justin Maxwell - Houston Astros K/2.76 AB

Oakland barely edges Houston in strike out totals with Seattle not far behind. The Angels and Rangers show the most discipline at the plate and it's not very close.

Carlos Pena, Justin Maxwell, and Bret Wallace project to have the most strike outs for the Astros.

Batting Average:
1. LA Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Houston Astros
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Oakland Athletics

Top 3 Hit Rates:
1. Mike Trout - LA Angels Hit every 3.07 AB.
2. Adrian Beltre - Texas Rangers Hit every 3.11 AB.
3. Craig Gentry - Texas Rangers Hit every 3.27 AB.

Top Astro: Jose Altuve Hit every 3.44 AB

Jose Altuve, Matt Dominguez, and Jason Castro project to have to top 3 batting averages on the club..

The Rangers and Angels team batting average each projected about 25 points higher than Houston's team average, which projects about half as much of that over Seattle and Oakland.

So what can we take from this? Not a ton. This wasn't the most scientific method of projection and later today when Houston's ZIPS projections come out we can get a more precise estimate of how Houston's players will perform on an individual level. This was meant as more of sizing up the AL West in these categories to get a better idea of how Houston will compete in 2013.

Brian McTaggart goes on vacation, gives us a heart attack

Brian McTaggart went on vacation yesterday. But before he left, he gave us this sweet little Twitter treat.  

Here's the story on the#Astros signing of Carlos Lee, with video of the press conference houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.j
 
Well, of course the Astros signed Carlos Pena, and not Carlos Lee. And of course it was a typo, brought on by six years of psychological pain of seeing El Caballo in an Astros jersey. And isn't it telling that, for however brief a moment, we thought it was actually possible that the Astros brought back Lee?

Well that lasted all of four minutes

So I guess that 2:00pm press conference is to announce (via Danny Knobler) that the Astros have signed Carlos Pena on a 1-year/$2.9m incentive-laden deal that could be worth up to $4.3m.

Pena, 34, will shuffle between 1B and DH.

In parts of 12 major-league seasons (1386 games, 5502 PAs), Pena has a .234/.350/.472 slash line, with 1474 strikeouts - a 26.8% strikeout rate. Pena broke out in 2007, hitting .282/.411/.627 for Tampa Bay, with 46 homers - and he would hit 70 homers over the course of 2008-2009.

That said, he's had batting averages below .200 in 2010 (.196) and 2012 (.197), while his 94 OPS+ in 2012 was the lowest of his career. Of course, it's been since 2008 that Pena had a BABIP anywhere close to league-average. Pena's BABIP:

2008: .298
2009: .250
2010: .222
2011: .267
2012: .264

In April 2012, Pena had an OPS of .900. And then Evan Longoria got hurt and he (as well as the rest of the Rays) went in the toilet. He wouldn't post an OPS over .640 until September, when he bounced back for an .853 OPS. 

So that's low, but it's also a four-year trend. We'll spend more time looking at Pena over the next few months because, you know, what else are we gonna do? But here are some takeaways:

1. The Astros are getting Pena CHEAP. Obviously his market was depressed because of 2010-2012, but Pena made $27.3m in those years. The Cubs and Rays signed him to fairly high-priced one-year deals in 2011 and 2012, which would indicate that he's worth seeing if he can recapture some old magic. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. But if he can't, it's less than $2m down the toilet, or what Carlos Lee would have made in about 20 games.

2. He does add power to the lineup, something of which the Astros don't have much. Justin Maxwell has some pop, but we still don't know if he can do it over the course of a full year.

3. Bye bye, Lance Berkman. Whether his knees couldn't hold up, or he and the Astros couldn't agree on a deal...we don't know (Update: Berkman is still undecided about playing in 2013). But Pena's going to DH, which means Berkman isn't. It also, thankfully, means that we won't have to get used to seeing Alfonso Soriano wearing the Tango Blast.

4. Pena knows the AL. I've been harping on this more than is probably helpful, but the Astros will need some guys who have actually faced American League teams. Pena has spent 11 of his 12 seasons in the American League.

5. Jon Singleton will likely not open the season with the Big league club. Wallace and Pena will split 1B/DH duties, and give Singleton a little Triple-A seasoning. But let's say that Pena defies expectations and has a solid first-half of the season. If the Astros are 120 games out of first place by mid-July, Pena's low-risk contract is easily tradeable for...yes, more prospects.

6. Someone has to get outrighted off the 40-Man Roster to make room, but don't expect this to be the last deal of the off-season. All this can be thrown out the window with Luhnow's next move. (UPDATE: Mickey Storey has been Designated for Assignment).

Heyman adds to what we already know

Jon Heyman adds to already-established information, that the Astros are interested in finding something called a "Designated Hitter," which sounds like something Bud Selig made up, much like an "All-Time QB," that can't possibly be real.

Nevertheless, that's what the Astros are after. Heyman says Berkman is a possible fit were the money to be right. But he also adds Carlos Pena and Travis Hafner as "in the mix." Whether he's just picking out names based on whose agents he sees in front of him, or if they're actual possibilities, is undetermined.