Thursday Morning Hot Links

It's been a rough 36 hours over here at ACHQ. The site went down for a few hours because I forgot I got a new debit card in the last two years and did not update my domain registration. It got fixed, but it was A Complication. I am not into Complications. Also, as many of you know, I teach AP US History (and US History). I worked at the Baseball Hall of Fame, a Dream Job. Teaching APUSH is also a Dream Job. Anyway, another US History teacher has been fudging their test data all year. Mix in that the Folks From Downtown don't like me (long hair, tattoos, I know my stuff, my students really like me, I'm not a Career Educator, and my classroom is "too comfortable" in that I don't have any windows so I put up Christmas lights and lamps, to name a few) and they've made a switch for next year. I'm not teaching APUSH. If you are, however, teaching APUSH, and want some resources I spent literally hundreds of hours putting together, I'll be happy to share them with you. Not with the one who's taking my job, though. Anyway, sorry to bring Real Life in here. I just needed to vent to dozens of people.

*Happy birthday (yesterday) to A.J. Hinch and Michael F. Brantley.

*The Astros won, again, 5-1. What's wrong with this offense? Houston is 29-15 and has won eight in a row and eleven out of their last 12 games. They've allowed 17 runs in the W8. The Astros' +87 run differential is the best in baseball, 25 runs better than Tampa.

*Justin Verlander threw 7IP, 2H/1ER, 9K:2BB before 15,940 announced fans. Verlander, on the crowd:
It's kind of sad. I think most of my memories here, this ballpark was packed and fans were rowdy, and it's obviously a bit different now. But that comes with winning.

*On Verlander:
When he's landing both breaking balls and the fastball where he wanted to...He's tough to his as is, but when he's able to command the strike zone, it's nearly impossible to hit him nowadays.

*Pressly and Osuna combined for 2IP, 0H/0ER, 5K:0BB.

*Alex Bregman hit his 14th home run of the season, and his 9th in May. Jimmy Wynn has the franchise record for home runs in May with 12. I bet that falls.

*7-8-9 (Reddick-Chirinos-Marisnick) in the lineup combined for a 5x9 2RBI night.

*Tyler White is struggling at the plate. This is known. He came into Wednesday night with a -0.3 bWAR and a 71 OPS+. He has two hits in his last 21 PAs and more GIDPs (1) than Extra-Base Hits (0). Hinch indicated that his playing time is going to get cut. He can hear Yordan's footsteps.

I just slapped together my first high-level prospective ASG rosters (w/ req of 1 per team, and no i'm not showing them to you yet) and it seems that 35% of my AL roster are Astros.

That doesn't include Reddick or Chirinos or Harris. This team is ridiculously good and deep.

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) May 15, 2019

*With yesterday being the 78th anniversary of the beginning of Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hit streak, SI staff wonders who could break it. Hint: Altuve, Jose.

*A Sext:

⚡️❄️⚡️❄️ #seeyousoon pic.twitter.com/n9Ose6rRaN

— Lance McCullers Jr. (@LMcCullers43) May 15, 2019

*Corpus' Opening Day starter Jose Urquidy, formerly known as Jose Hernandez, got promoted to Round Rock.

*Bryan Abreu got his first Double-A win last night over Frisco.

Cristian Javier, who had 40 strikeouts and an 0.94 ERA at Fayetteville, got promoted to Corpus.

*While I hate the Rangers and everything about them (except for Eric Nadel, who is a Got Dang National Treasure), I do love reading anything The Athletic DFW's Levi Weaver writes. His piece on Hunter Pence's new/old swing is definitely worth your time, and your subscription, even if they have jettisoned me into the sun.

*SI's Emma Baccellieri on why there's been a jump in MLB strikeouts this year.

For what it's worth:
2019 Astros Ks through 44 games: 317, and 83 home runs
2018 Astros Ks through 44 games: 368, and 46 home runs

*Dang. Former Astros Great Ben Zobrist hasn't been with the Cubs since May 8 due to apparently contentious divorce proceedings.

*Former Rangers Great Derek Holland admitted that he's on the IL with a "fake injury."

*Philly starter Zach Eflin has overcome tragedy to become one of baseball's biggest surprises.

*Texas Monthly on Joe Exotic: A Dark Journey into the World of a Man Gone Wild.

*UEFA is trying to ban Manchester City from the Champions League for a year.

*My beloved Leeds United, once the Houston Astros of the Football Association, at one point near the end of the 1st Half - up 2-0 - of the 2nd leg of the Championship Playoff with a chance to make it to the Premier League, did a Leeds and allowed four goals to lose. Season is over. 16 straight years without the Premier League. I am heartbroken. I've always hated Frank Lampard.

*A Musical Selection:

I'm not really worried about the strikeouts

Here are some facts:

1. The 2017 Astros struck out at a 17.3% clip, lowest in the Majors by 1.2%.
2. The 2017 Astros struck out 1087 times, lowest in the Majors by 66 strikeouts.
3. The 2018 Astros are striking out at a 26.4% clip, 2nd-worst in the Majors.*
4. The 2018 Astros have struck out 109 times, 2nd-highest in the Majors.*

*All 2018 stats current going into the April 10 game @ Minnesota.

The 2017 Astros didn't record their 109th strikeout until Game 16.

1. That 26.4% clip is simply not sustainable. The Brewers had the highest K% in the Majors in 2017 at 25.6% - there's no way the Astros will simply lose the ball at a pace 1% higher than the free-est swinging team over the course of the entire season.

2. J.D. Davis has essentially taken over 1B duties in Gurriel's absence. Yulieski Gurriel posted an 8.8% K-rate in 2016 and an 11.0% K-rate in 2017. J.D Davis has struck out nine times in 19 PAs, a 47.4% clip.

3. Because Marwin has also taken reps at 1B, it has opened a spot for Derek Fisher to try and do things. Derek Fisher has struck out twelve times in 26 PAs, a 46.2% K-rate.

4. And because Josh Reddick sat a couple of games early against the Rangers and their gaggle of LHPs, Jake Marisnick has seen some more playing time. He has struck out in 13 of his 28 PAs, a 46.4%.

5. Not even the Chris Carterest of players can maintain striking out in 46% of their Plate Appearances, mainly because they'd be DFA'd or sent back to Fresno if they tried to ride that lightning as long as they could. In other words: Marisnick, Fisher, and Davis aren't going to see that many PAs this season. Fisher has a longer leash, but Kyle Tucker is knocking.

6. Even Marwin has been more K-prone of late. While he struck out in 19.2% of his PAs in 2017, he has ten strikeouts through 44 PAs - a jump of 3.5% from 2017. To be fair, he hasn't struck out in his last 17 PAs, but that's just how Marwin go.

7. The 2017 Astros' K-rate, by month:
April: 19.5%
May: 16.8%
June: 15.9%
July: 17.1%
August: 17.6%
Sept/Oct: 17.4%

This is pretty much the exact same offense as 2017, save for inserting J.D. Davis in for Gurriel so far, and Derek Fisher for Carlos Beltran. To note that the highest K-rate (by calendar month) was April, well, it tells me that this is kind of what they do.

8. It was freaking cold last night in Minnesota - maybe you heard. I would happily hack at the first three pitches if it meant I could go back in the clubhouse and pour hot chocolate on my junk in an effort to warm up.

It's 11 games into the season. Please don't freak out (until further notice).

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros put up a 5-spot on Sonny Gray in the 1st inning last night and rode it out to an 8-4 win over Oakland. Gray needed 38 pitches to get through the 1st as the Astros sent 10 men to the plate, including George Springer and his 8th leadoff homer of the season. The MLB record for leadoff homers in a season is 13, by Alfonso Soriano. Reddick, on Springer:
It's special to hit behind that guy. Eight leadoff homers, 21 homers out of the leadoff spot, you just don't see that a whole lot. It makes you wonder what he would do out maybe in the three-, four-hole in this lineup. But you really can't move him. 

The average leadoff hitter in baseball (including Springer) is hitting .261/.330/.419. Springer is hitting .284/.356/.567.

*Hinch:
Our at-bats were exceptional. Springer sets the tone with the big home run, and then we continued to do some positive things against [Gray] and put up positive at-bats. 

For all the damage the Astros did against Sonny Gray in the 1st, they didn't get a whole lot more until he left the game. Consider:
Gray, 1st inning: 38 pitches, 5H/5ER, 0K:2BB
Gray, 2nd-5th: 70 pitches, 2H/0ER, 5K:2BB, HBP

*Gray, on his start:
It has been one inning for numerous starts now where things kind of escalate. I'm gonna have to figure this thing out. Whether it's getting off the mound and slowing myself down, I've gotta figure out a way to shut the inning down when I get two outs. 

*Frankie Tuesday threw 5.2IP, 6H/3ER, 4K:3BB for his second ML win in two starts, holding the A's to an 0x6 w/RISP with him on the mound. Within that link we find that Martes could be optioned back to Fresno when McCullers comes off the DL on Saturday, or the Astros could place Brad Peacock on paternity leave and let Martes throw in his spot on Sunday.

*Luke Gregerson faced three batters and struck them all out.

*Astros are 6-1 against Oakland in 2017, and haven't lost in Oakland since July 19, 2016.

*Houston is 24-10 against the AL West.

*Alex Bregman's last seven PAs (most recent to previous): Out, double, walk, HBP, single, double, double.

*Hinch told 790 that Charlie Morton is throwing mid-90s. He'll start for Fresno on Thursday and throw 2-3IP.

*If the Astros have "any opening whatsoever," they're bringing back Derek Fisher

*Wall Street Journal: The Astros don't like strikeouts anymore

*Tom Verducci has a good piece on the Astros' trade needs and a couple of good stories about how the Astros landed David Paulino and Francis Martes. Verducci:
Yes, it will hurt Houston to shoot high. But the time for bargain shopping is over. The Astros already know the question they face next month, and it is the same question the Cubs faced last July: If not now, when?

*What's it like to be Latino in MLB? This is a must-read.

*Hardball Times: Examining what Cuban League stats actually mean

*Patrick Hruby in Vice: The plot to disrupt the NCAA with a pay-for-play HBCU basketball league

The K-Stros Revisited

The Astros will strikeout a lot this season. You know how I know this? The Astros players, across the board, have high career strikeout rates. Based on this, I predicted they would challenge the 2010 Diamondbacks strikeout record back in February. However, it has nothing to do with the first three games of the season.

Last year, among current Astros, Ankiel led the way with a 34% strikeout rate, which would have led the majors had he qualified for the batting title. An astronomically high number. Carter, Pena and Maxwell were all above 30% as well. That's a lot of strikeouts in the starting lineup. But this year, Wallace and Ankiel are both over 70%. Carter and Pena are over 50%. Of the regular starters, only Dominguez is under 20%. It has been frustrating to watch. But it is not very predictive.

Carter and Wallace will not strikeout in 70% of their at bats. They will probably strikeout in 25-35%, based on previous performance. Carter will likely make up for that with power, and Wallace will likely be an offensive dud, unless his swing retooling is as effective as we were led to believe in spring training. We know this because the past season(s) performance is more far predictive for future performance than any sample of 3 games you can think of. All the first three games did was give the Astros a bit of a head start in their quest for the all-time strikeout record.

One thing that bothers me is when people ignore small sample sizes when they show unexpected results, but act as though it offers proof when it conforms to expectations. Ankiel's great Spring was a fluke whereas Bryce Harper was primed for a huge season. The Astros' first win of the season was a fluke, and the second game showed the Astros' true abilities.Small sample sizes are not predictive, regardless of whether you expected the results or not. Harper might be primed for a breakout because he is a very talented 20 year old who had success at 19, not because he had a strong spring. The Astros are not likely to dominate the season series with the Rangers because they are not as talented, not because they almost got perfect gamed in game 2.

And the Astros will strikeout a lot. But not at this pace for the rest of the season. Whether the actual strikeout rates will be problematic remains to be seen.

The K-Stros?

One thing the Astros recent acquisitions have had in common is a tremendous ability to strike out. Depending on who wins the positions battles this spring, there is a legitimate chance that the Astros could field a team with 7 of the 9 starters who had a strike out rate greater than 20% last year (Castro, Wallace, Greene, Carter, Maxwell, Ankiel, Pena). There is a strong chance that the everyday starting lineup could have 4 players with a strikeout rate greater than 30%.(Carter, Maxwell, Ankiel, Pena).

We could be looking at a historic strikeout team. Only 12 teams in history have struck out greater than 1300 times. The all time record was set by the Diamondbacks in 2010 with 1529. No other team has exceeded 1400. The American League record was set by the Athletics last year with 1387. Using Baseball Prospectus's depth chart, combined with 2012 strikeout rates, the Astros project to strikeout 1556 times. That is a very rough projection, but I think its fair to say that the Astros will at least join the 1300 strikeout club, and potentially threaten the AL and possibly the ML record.

But what does that mean? The list of high strikeout teams includes some truly abysmal offenses, including the 2012 Astros, who were dead last in the majors in runs scored. However, it includes a number of league average or better offenses as well. I don't think you can say that if the Astros increase their strikeouts from a year ago, they will necessarily decline offensively. Carter might strikeout at a higher rate than anyone and still be the best offensive player on the roster. However, its worth paying attention to as the spring develops, to see whether an effort is made to minimize the effects of these high strikeout additions in the final roster construction.