Saturday Morning Hot Links

Good morning. It is 32 days until Pitchers & Catchers report. Or, in the Astros' situation, "Pitchers and Catcher(s)" report.

*Big News of the Day was that Alex Bregman underwent arthroscopic surgery on his elbow to remove "loose bodies." Buncha sluts up in Bregs' elbow. In an exclusive interview with Tags, Bregman - and the Astros - are targeting the March 1 Grapefruit League game against St. Louis for his return. Bregman:
It's something you can play through a little bit, but when (the elbow) locks out, you're looking at a DL stint, and I wasn't willing to risk going on the DL this year for something I know I could fix before the season started. So we went ahead and knocked it out.

If, on March 1, Luhnow says Bregman is dealing with some "discomfort" in his elbow, we will know that Bregs is dead. Long live Bregs.

*Yesterday was the deadline to agree to a deal for arbitration-eligible players, of which the Astros had ten. Seven Astros agreed to a deal: Jake Marisnick, Lance McCullers, Collin McHugh, Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Will Harris, and Brad Peacock.

Here are the numbers we know, compared to MLBTR's arbitration projections (in parentheses)
Will Harris: $4.225m ($3.6m)
McCullers: $4.1m ($4.6m)
Brad Peacock: $3.11m ($2.9m)
Ryan Pressly: $2.9m ($3.1m)

In what world does Harris make more than McCullers (though I guess the Astros will get IPs out of Harris, unlike McCullers, in 2019, so maybe...)? That's an arbitration total of $14.335m compared to a projection of $14.2m.

Assistant GM Brandon Taubman:
I think arbitration always brings mixed emotions for us. I am proud of the people who've been involved in the process on our end, I'm proud that we have a responsible process that represents the Astros' organization's interests and the merits of fair salary within the industry. But what we care about is winning baseball games and promoting the development of our players. And this is a detour from that.

This means that Carlos Correa (projected at $5.1m), Gerrit Cole ($13.1m), and Chris Devenski ($1.4m) did not agree to a deal and will go to a hearing. It's a fun time in which the Astros try to explain before a panel why these three players aren't worth as much as they think they're worth. Who wouldn't want to go through that?

Jon Heyman reports that Cole asked for $13.5m - exactly double his $6.75m salary in 2018, while the Astros submitted an $11,425,000 offer.

*Craig Calcaterra: It's SUPER-WEIRD that all 30 teams are willing to go to a hearing rather than settle with their arbitration guys.

*The Astros announced part of the Astros Caravan schedule. Here's what has been released:

Tuesday, January 22:
11:30am-1:30pm: Kyle Tucker, Josh James, Chris Devenski, Todd Kalas. Dell Diamond, Round Rock.
3:30-4:30pm. Tyler White, Brady Rodgers, Steve Sparks. Katy Chick-Fil-A (South Mason Road).
5:00-6:00pm. Same players. Katy Academy (23155 Katy Freeway). They'll only sign commemorative autograph cards provided by Academy.
5:30-6:30pm. Tucker/James/Devenski/Kalas. Cedar Park Academy (C-bar Ranch Trail). Commemorative card rules apply.
5:00-7:00pm. Caravan Jam at La Centerra (23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd, Katy). No idea who will be there.

Wednesday, January 23:
2:30-3:30pm. Myles Straw, Max Stassi, Corbin Martin, Robert Ford. A Corpus Whataburger location TBD.
5:00-7:00pm. Caravan Jam at Whataburger Field.

Thursday, January 24:
1:00-2:00pm. Jake Marisnick, Tyler White, Geoff Blum. Champion Forest Drive HEB.
2:30-3:30pm. Tony Kemp, Robinson Chrinos, A.J. Hinch, Steve Sparks. South Rice Avenue Chick-Fil-A.
5:00-7:00pm. Marisnick/White/Blummer. Caravan Jam at the Fountains at Waterway Square.
5:30-6:30pm. Kemp/Chirinos/Hinch/Sparks. Southwest Freeway Academy. Commemorative card autograph rules apply.

*Toronto traded catcher Russell Martin to the Dodgers, reducing the competition for J.T. Realmuto by one team. Here are my trading partners for the Marlins on Realmuto, updated:
1. Houston
2. Atlanta

The price is going to be high, but gotdang Yasmani Grandal will make $18.25m in 2019 after agreeing to a deal with Milwaukee. Grandal, 30, posted a .241/.349/.466 line, with 24 of his 106 hits in 2018 going over the fence, good enough for a 125 wRC+.

J.T. Realmuto, who will be 28 in March, hit .277/.340/.484 with 21 home runs for Miami, for a 126 wRC+. I have questions about FanGraphs' defensive ratings, but Realmuto got a 7.9 while Grandal got a 9.0. Now I'm not sure what point I was trying to make. Still, the Marlins are basically a criminal enterprise. Don't negotiate with terrorists. Realmuto will make $5.9m in 2019. Trade four guys I don't like for J.T. Realmuto, Luhnow.

*Brian Kenny: Roy Oswalt deserves more of a Cooperstown look:

He’s getting no #HOF support in his ballot debut, but come on, Roy Oswalt deserves some #CooperstownJustice:#MLBNow pic.twitter.com/nmybmUIKq0

— Brian Kenny (@MrBrianKenny) January 12, 2019

*Tyler Bauer is a Tough Guy on Twitter dot com but he left a media scrum awful quick when he got called on harassing a Texas State student.

*Justin Turner reflects on back-to-back World Series losses.

*Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame:

Barry Bonds is the reincarnation of Ted Williams, with more power. -Felipe Alou pic.twitter.com/NT0tc0JP6B

— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) January 11, 2019

*A stalker, a socialite, and Kevin Sumlin.

*Todd Marinovich is facing what has haunted him.

*My other favorite team - Leeds United - beat Derby County 2-0 yesterday, but not before there was uncomfortable news that Leeds were spying on Derby's training sessions.

*A musical selection:

Friday Morning Hot Links

Today is the first day of the first three hour class I have ever taken as a student as well as the first Friday class I have ever taken, so today is kind of a bummer. To cope, I will post. 

Forrest Whitley talked to Tags about dominating the AFL, injuries, mechanics, and veteran guidance.

Here's another Whitley article, this time talking about his excitement for his MLB debut.

Today is the arbitration deadline, and 10 players, some of which include stars Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole, and Lance McCullers. All the figures and players can be found in the link.

The Astros are one of 6 teams with "substantive" trade negotiations picking up for J.T. Realmuto again, with the Dodgers being reported as "the most motivated". 

What might a Houston trade package look like?

The Tags Mailbag is here!

Bleacher Report gave us the odds of the best suitors to the best free agents still available (except for Lowrie) (except for Grandal).

The Astros scouting team is extending the team's contention window, which to me sounds like a splendid idea.

Get to know Cristian Javier, one of the best international pitching prospects in the pipeline.

Seth Beer was ranked as the 7th best storyline to come out of Clemson in 2018 per ClemsonSportsTalk.

Here is a deeper dive into the unfortunate and alarming inequality in the payment of Minor League baseball players.

Some Japanese billionaire broke the Twitter record for most retweets on one post, passing up the original title holder of the kid I blocked on Twitter for whining about wanting free chicken nuggets to Wendy's for months on end. He is just the worst.

DAREDEVIL MONKEYS

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*Foot ain't broke. That's awesome.

*The sportsbook at Caesars lists the 2019 Astros' win total at 97.5, the highest among the four AL teams - and six MLB teams - listed at over 90 wins. H
Houston: 97.5
New York Yankees: 96.5
Boston: 95.5
Los Angeles Dodgers: 94
Cleveland: 91
Chicago Cubs: 90.5

So let's talk right quick about how the Astros get to 98 wins (bet the over).

1. It helps to have 76 games against the AL West.

a. The A's are the only ones with a legitimate shot at 90+ wins, following up a 97-win campaign though they never actually led the division outright. No, seriously, and this is crazy: the A's were tied with the Astros for 1st place for four days, but they won 97 games and never actually had sole possession of the AL West.

The A's signed Joakim Soria and acquired Jurickson Profar. Over the last three seasons Soria has thrown 183.1IP, 172H/74ER, 207K:63BB - a 3.63 ERA/1.28 WHIP to go with a 3.07 FIP. Solid pickup.

Profar, however, has been a Prospect for literally 72 seasons. He's coming off his best offensive season in 2018 in which he got a career-high 594 PAs and hit [squints] .254/.335/.458, and only struck out 88 times (54 walks) with a career-high 20 home runs. It was worth 2.9 fWAR which, among 21 qualified Shortstops, ranked 12th. He'll be getting a shot in a not-as-hitter-friendly home park.

Then there's Mike F. Fiers.

Who knows what the A's can do this year? They'll be good. But will they go 31-14 in 1-run games? Will they go 13-6 in extra-inning games? Will they match their July 1-end of season record of 51-27 (.654) over 162 games? Or will they be more like the 46-38 (.548) team they were from the beginning of the season until June 30? A .548 team would have finished just barely behind Seattle.

b. If you look at the Mariners' roster, they could maybe Do Something, maybe Not, but their current 40-Man Roster is probably going to get flipped like Chip Gaines is running the damn team.

c. The Angels are Mike Trout and 24 blokes, one of whom is Matt Harvey.

d. Then there's the Ramgers. Bless their hearts.

The Astros went 46-30 against the AL West last year. Oakland went 38-38.

2. Now we can talk about the Astros, after spending more time thinking and writing about the A's than I have in the entire previous ten years of Astros County's existence. Let's not forget that the Astros' Pythagorean Record was 109-53 - one game better than the Red Sox, whose Pythagorean Record was 103-59.

a. Will the 2019 Astros be better than the 2018 Astros? I do not know, and neither does anyone else. They lost 500IP between Keuchel, Morton, and McCullers (assuming Keuchel doesn't re-sign with Houston...an event which I think has a >1% chance of happening.).

b. I do believe that Altuve will return to being Altuve, though he wasn't far off from being Peak Altuve in 2018.

c. I do believe that Carlos Correa is the .285/.363/.495 hitter that he was from his MLB debut until he went on the DL after the June 25, 2018 game, rather than the .180/.261/.256 hitter he was from August 10 to the end of the regular season. A healthy Altuve and a healthy Correa combined with an outfield that includes Michael Brantley could cover some pitching inconsistencies. In 2018 the pitching bailed out the offense, maybe the pendulum swings the other way in 2019.

d. For the first 62 games of the 2018 season (38.3%) of the season, the Astros averaged 8.7 hits/9 innings to 8.4 strikeouts/9 innings. It was a stupid time. I don't think that holds up for over a third of the season in 2019.

3. Who is actually trying in 2019, in the AL?

a. Boston
b. New York
c. Tampa
d. Cleveland
e. Oakland
f. Maybe Minnesota

The Astros went 29-24 against those teams. And at least four of those losses were bullcrap.

Bet the over on 97.5 for the 2019 Astros.

*On to something else.

While Jim Crane says Jeff Luhnow looks to possibly add a bat & a starting pitcher other moves could still be made: "You never know. We might add something to the back of the bullpen.Everything's possible at this point,but I'm sure we'll make 2 or 3 moves before everything's over" pic.twitter.com/Tae0Bb2UKK

— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) January 9, 2019

*ESPN's David Schoenfield predicts that Dallas Keuchel will sign with the Padres (Petco would be a good fit, I guess), though mentions the Rangers and Nationals as possibilities, as well.

He also predicts Boston's Clay Buchholz to Houston. And Marwin to the Angels, of which I would not approve.

*On Sunday, Alex Bregman will play softball to help out victims of the California wildfires.

*Forrest Whitley will appear in-person, and Kyle Tucker will phone in, on Astroline tonight. Event is at Pluckers on Shephard.

*Cionel Perez, Framber Valdez, and Josh James are at the Rookie Career Development Program.

*Former Astros Great J.D. Davis spoke to the Sacramento Bee about getting traded to the M-E-T-S METS METS METS. Davis:
I'm stoked. We've been happy with the Astros since I got drafted, but I'm excited to have the opportunity to make it as an everyday starter, to do my part to help our team win...I learned from my game failures, learned from players and I was waiting for a team to come after me, to trade for me, and sure enough, the Mets took that step. It's time to take off from here. 

The NL East is the NL West of the National League. Think about it, huh.

*Former Astros Great and World Series-winning Hitting Coach/now Blue Jays' Bench Coach Dave Hudgens is looking forward to helping with Vlad Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Bo Bichette. Hudgens:
You need a lot of depth to win and I think that's the goal and that's what's being developed in the Blue Jays organization.

*If you're active on Twitter, you already know that Tyler Bauer is a complete asshole. He provided even further evidence this week, with narrative provided by a weak-ass Cleveland reporter.

*YES Network is ranking the Yankees' 19 best Yankees games since 2000 and picked 2017 ALCS G4 as their 12th-best, one of the three games they won in an effort to end their season.

Playoff wins since Houston joined the American League:
Houston: 18
Yankees: 8

*Human lives were not of value in Sugar Land.

*A musical selection:

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

*Sunday morning I ran 7.5 miles in preparation for my first half-marathon on March 31. It was the longest I've run in three years, when my phone died and I got lost. Now I'm just hoping that the pain in my foot is a bone bruise and not a stress fracture, which would sideline me from running for 6-8 weeks and make me extremely sad. Luhnow said I'm dealing with foot discomfort.

*It is 36 days until pitchers and catchers report.

*MLB.com came up with one question for each team as of right now. The Astros' question is predictable: what does the rotation look like behind Verlander, Cole, and McHugh?

*Collin McHugh launched his new podcast, Twelve-Six, in which he talks to Friend of Lima Time Time Lance McCullers. Click here to find it on Apple. McHugh:
I was thinking about baseball and just some of the amazing personalities that I've met over the last...decade in baseball, and how people really don't know who they are because we just don't do a great job of marketing ourselves.

Jake Kaplan has more insight from McHugh in The Athletic.

*Rep. John Lewis and George Springer will be grand marshals at Houston's MLK parade.

*Alex De Goti (15th Round - 2016) returned to his Summer Ball hometown to hold a youth clinic. De Goti:
I was not playing every day in college. But you can't let the discouragements and tough moments get to you. They have made me who I am today. All you need is an opportunity and that one guy in one organization to believe in you, and that organization was the Astros.

De Goti is coming off his best minor-league season, in which he hit .283/.335/.440, with 29 doubles and 12 home runs in 125 games between Corpus and Fresno.

*You can make a 2005 MVP Baseball lineup completely out of current managers.

*A tale as old as time: Guy gets divorced, guy befriends assassin, guy finds himself working for the Sinaloa Cartel.

*A Musical Selection:

Monday Morning Hot Links

The Astros made a move yesterday.

J.D. Davis and Cody Bohanek were dealt to the New York Mets last night for OF Ross Adolph, 2B Luis Santana, and C Scott Manea.

Naturally since nothing else has happened in the last few days, almost every single link today will be based around this trade. If you don't care to read about minor league prospects, I suggest you look away.

Here is the best article breaking down the trade that I read today, detailing everything of what you need to know (and maybe things you don't need to know but cool to know). There are links at the bottom of this article that I will also put later on in this post for organization sake, so don't be alarmed if you read the same thing twice.

If you don't like long winded articles, here is the talent the Astros are getting in 240 characters or less.

FanGraphs writer Eric Longenhagen writes that the Mets acquired J.D. Davis "at a steep price."

Ross Adolph:

+Adolph is ranked #30 in the Astros Minor League Pipeline

+Here's a little highlight reel of Ross Adolph's 2018 campaign.

+MetsMinors.net ranked Ross as their 3rd best outfield prospect going into 2019.

+Amazin' Avenue (Mets SBNation page) ranked Adolph as the 8th best minor league player for the Mets. 

+Adolph was the first Brooklyn Cyclones player to homer or win the New York Penn League All-Star Game MVP.

Luis Santana:

+Santana is ranked #22 in the Astros Minor League Pipeline.

+This scouting report, as someone on Twitter pointed out, sound eerily similar to another second baseman we know.

+It sounds as if another MLB team wanted to acquire this guy via trade as well.

+MetsMinors listed him as a "breakout prospect" of 2018.

+Amazin'Avenue ranked Santana as the 6th best minor league player for the Mets.

+Matt Eddy from Baseball America has this to say about Santana: 

"I was inclined to underestimate 2B Luis Santana based on his 5-foot-8 stature and lack of loud overall tools, but the more sources I talked to, the more I liked him. Move him up, they all said. Santana ultimately will fall just outside the top 10, with a chance to move into the 10 next year if he performs in full-season ball. He does have a potentially special bat, with his knack for hard contact, plate discipline and just swagger." Source

Scott Manea:

+Manea is not on the Astros Minor League Pipeline Top 30, but Jeff Luhnow called him "a key piece" in regards to this deal.

+Prospects1500 ranked Manea as the Mets 38th best prospect and a tier 4 player, which is a tier that means "players who have the potential of making the majors, or have high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact."

+However, Ben Wilson of Prospects1500 said on Twitter he has "the best balance of hitting/defense of all Mets catching prospects."

+J.P. Ricciardi, special assistant to Sandy Alderson at the time, had this to say about Manea at the end of this year: 

"He has got a chance to be something. He has opened up some eyes this year. He has got power and a pretty good idea of what he is doing behind the plate." Source

To close the Hot Links for today, Jeff Luhnow suggested that the Astros likely aren't done yet this offseason.