Tuesday, February 4, 2014

PECOTA projects Astros 2014 record

Baseball Prospectus posted PECOTA's 2014 standings projection this morning. Here's how the AL West projects:

Oakland: 88-74
Anaheim: 87-75
Arlington: 85-77
Seattle: 82-80
Houston: 65-97

It's also worth noting that, once again, that would be good enough for the 1-1 pick in 2015. It also would be a 14-game improvement over 2013. There are some other fun stats within, as well. Let's look at them:

Runs Scored, 2013: 610
Runs Scored, Proj.: 661

Runs Against, 2013: 848
Runs Against, Proj.: 819

Slash Line, 2013: .240/.299/.375
Slash Line, Proj.: .245/.315/.388

So the offense is projected to be better, the defense is projected to be better, 100 losses are projected to be avoided. And another 1-1. Thoughts?


Anonymous said...

Par for the course. 2015 was when we were projected to start competing again, and these projections agree with that. I think by the end of the year, when some of the young prospects have been called up, we'll have a taste of what's to come. Beginning of the year might be brutal. Again.

Anonymous said...

the only thing that will be a major disappointment to me is if we are somehow worse than last year...which would be that something went terribly wrong. If the Astros show significant improvement over 2013 in 2014, they should be in a position to "spend" in somewhat the same manner then Mariners did this offseason. Not overpaying, mind you, but in a position as a franchise to be mostly confortable to take on a significant contract because: TV deal is in place and money is coming in and the verge of actual competition. would maybe be ok with forfeiting a draft pick in the event.

Wes McMahan said...

I'll take a 14 game improvement, I was hoping for 20, but 14 is great. Another 1-1 pick though? Not sure how I feel about that. It's like we improved a lot, but still managed to be the worst team in baseball. I'll take another 1-1 pick, but not sure I can take another year of Olney's integrity tirades.

Nick in Galveston said...

Another 1-1 is depressing, even coming on the heels of a 14 game improvement.

Terence said...

Since you posted this article, they've amended the projection to 66-96. Yay! Progress.

If the Astros do achieve this projection and get to 66 wins they won't be picking 1-1. In 3 of the last 4 years, 3 teams not named the Houston Astros have finished with 66 or fewer wins.

Projections regress to the middle and avoid predicting outliers. Some team(s) will have injury problems, bad luck, severe regression and badly underperform their projections and one of those teams will finish under 66. I just hope it's not us.

Chris said...

Seems like a fair prediction. I have them pegged for 65-70 wins. Anyone predicting more wins than that and I instantly discredit them as an overly optimistic homer.

Chris said...

I also agree with Terence's comment that I would be surprised if 65-70 wins lands the #1 overall pick. A couple teams will win less than that.