Tuesday, January 28, 2014

First-run prediction!

The Hardball Times' Clay Davenport has his first run of projections for the 2014 season. For the Astros' purposes, let's take a look at Davenport's AL West:

Oakland: 88-74
Texas: 87-75
Anaheim: 84-78
Seattle: 83-79
Houston: 70-92

Now, looking at his Postseason Odds, we see that the Astros averaged a 67-95 record with a 1.98% chance of making the postseason (with the 2014 season simulated one million times), which is actually higher than the Cubs' chances of making the postseason.

You can read some of Davenport's thoughts on this run of projections here (which I highly suggest you do before commenting, if that's your thing)


Lyle said...

I don't understand the math behind this yet. I'm trying to teach myself sabrmetrics this year so I can follow the sabr arguments more carefully, but I from what I've seen in the off season moves is that Astros are probably no better than one or two teams, if not the worst team in MLB again.

Everyone in MLB has made their team betters but for a handful of teams. And Houston of course plays in the AL West which will beat them up pretty good during the season.

Terence said...

Mr Davenport agrees with you. He is projecting the Astros to finish the season with a record better than only the Cubs. Although he does have Houston, Colorado, Philadelphia, and Minnesota grouped pretty tightly.

One of the current beliefs of Sabermetrics is that an average team will give up about 700 runs and score about 700 runs. For every ten or so runs in either direction add or subtract a win. With him projecting the offense to score 676 and the defense allowing 781, you can see that he expects our offense to be about 2.5 wins less than average and the defense to cost us about 8 wins. It then appears that his projection is discounting us about 1.5 wins for playing in a tough division.

Lyle said...

Thanks for the explanation Terence! I see how he is getting his results now.

He must think our pitching, despite looking much better on paper for the 2014 season, is going to get pounded by better offensive teams.

Terence said...

When I said 1.5 runs I meant a .5 run deduction for a difficult division or terrible bullpen or some mixture of both. I was obviously too tired to do basic math in my head at that time.

Last year we gave up 848 runs. Only allowing 781 would be a massive improvement. Many of the projection systems don't like Cosart and Oberholtzer as much as we Houston fans do.