Monday, September 12, 2011

Life After Roy

When Roy was dealt to the Phillies 14 months ago, it started a huge ball of anguish and despair rolling towards the point where we Astros fans find ourselves today: with Roy Oswalt coming into Houston with the sole purpose of sending the Astros to a franchise record-setting loss.

Let's look back at what happened since that time:

Since acquiring Oswalt, the Phillies are 135-67 in regular season games (and 5-4 in playoff games). And for the Astros, since trading Oswalt away, they have been 82-114.

Roy Oswalt has dealt with injuries in 2011, but in 31 starts for the Phillies, Oswalt has posted a 14-9 record, with a 2.88 ERA / 1.18 WHIP - both of those numbers better than his 10-year numbers in Houston. In Oswalt's starts, the Phillies are 19-13, with a 9-10 record in 2011. According to FanGraphs, in 2010/11, Oswalt was worth 6.7 WAR, making $31m in 2010/11 (with the Astros covering $11m).

J.A. Happ, the ML-ready pitcher acquired as part of the Phillies' package, is 10-19 with Houston (38 starts), with a 5.07 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP (oh, for the Phillies, that was a 3.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 47 appearances). The Astros are 10-28 when Happ pitches. Happ has been worth 1.0 WAR, making about $944,000 over the two seasons.

Was the deal worth it? Like the Pence trade, it's too soon to tell. But if Happ continues to put up an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00 (or an xFIP of 4.63, as he has in 2011), and Brett Wallace doesn't contribute, then the Astros are putting all of their Roy-O eggs in Jonathan Villar's basket. And he's at least two years away from knowing for sure.