Friday, April 9, 2010

Who We Got: G4 - Astros v. Phillies

The Astros are still looking for their first win of the season as the Phillies come to town for a three game set.

Who We Got

Philadelphia: 2-1, T-1st
On the Road: 2-1
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 24/11

Houston: 0-3, 6th place, 1.5GB
At home: 0-3
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 6/18

Starting Pitchers

J.A. Happ: 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Bud Norris: 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Why the Astros Will Win

Because somehow the Astros are 10-5 against the Phillies in the last two seasons, including 4-0 at home vs. Philly in 2009.

Because, and I realize we're talking about one start, but Happ was hit hard by the Astros last season. Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, and J.R. Towles all got two hits off him last season.

Because Bud Norris can get ahead of batters. Last year Norris got a first-pitch strike in 54.4% of plate appearances (not counting when batters put the ball in play on the first pitch). When Norris is ahead of the batter, his line is .170/.189/.261

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because in 2009 J.A. Happ was 7-2 on the road, with a 1.99 ERA/1.08 WHIP (compared to 4.18/1.44 at home).

Because the Phillies have scored 24 runs this season already - most in the NL, and are hitting .327/.434/.509 as a team. They also have scored hit home homers than the Astros have scored runs.

Because we have no idea what to expect from Bud Norris. Or J.A. Happ. And in the fight between two unknowns, we can't yet bet on the Astros.