Sunday, April 18, 2010

Who We Got - G12: Astros @ Cubs

The Astros are shooting for their first win streak, and series win, at 1:20 Central today at Miller Park South Wrigley.

Who We Got

Chicago: 5-6, 3rd place, 2GB
At home: 3-2
Vs. Houston: 1-1
Runs scored/Against: 50/55

Houston: 2-9, 6th place, 5GB
Road: 2-3
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 25/55

Starting Pitchers

Ryan Dempster: 1-0, 4.38 ERA / 1.30 WHIP
Last two games:
(vMIL - Apr 12) 6.1IP, 7H/5ER, 5K:4BB
(@ATL - Apr 7) 6IP, 3H/1ER, 9K:2BB

Wandy Rodriguez: 0-2, 6.10 ERA / 1.74 WHIP
Last two games:
(@STL - Apr 12) 4.1IP, 7H/4ER, 0K:2BB
(vSF - Apr 6) 6IP, 7H/3ER, 4K:4BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because the Astros hit Dempster to a .297/.346/.419 line. Hunter Pence is 8x23 (.348/.348/.652), and Carlos Lee is 8x24 (.333/.333/.542). Expect Jeff Keppinger to get another start today - he's 9x18 with two doubles against Dempster lifetime.

Because Dempster in 51 plate appearances, Dempster has thrown 25 first-pitch strikes (22 FPBs, and four first-pitch swinging). When he throws an FPS, batters are 7x25 with 4XBH).

Because, while Wandy has had four straight NDs against Chicago, he has a 2.84 ERA against the Cubs in his last five starts. His last start at Wrigley was July 27, when he threw 7IP, 6H/1ER, 7K:2BB.

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because Dempster has given up a slash line of .222/.327/.400 in two starts this season.

Because Wandy has had some trouble with walks, and this Cubs team knows how to walk against Wandy - drawing 17. And Derrek Lee is .483/.568/.897 lifetime against Wandy.

First-pitch balls. Wandy has thrown 19 of them, and has been tagged to a .467/.579/.667 line after doing so.

Or because of Wandy's history at Wrigley. I know it was a Why They'll Win, but Wandy is 1-3 in six starts at Wrigley, with a 6.68 ERA / 1.74 WHIP.

1 comment:

RobertInCypress said...

Is anyone surprised that Keppinger is playing better than Matsui? Kepp has only struck out 82 times in his whole career. He's not very fast but he's a great #2 hitter. Crazy As soon as Bourn is feeling better I can see a Bourn/Keep 1-2 working for a long time.