Friday, January 15, 2010

$5m not out of the question for Pence

Matt Kemp has reportedly agreed to a 2-year, $10.95m deal with the Dodgers. So what? Well, it just so happens that the batter most similar to Matt Kemp is Hunter Pence (thanks to Baseball Reference's similarity scores). And, like Pence, Kemp is (was) arbitration-eligible for the first time.

On November 11 we took us a gander at Pence's potential earnings in arbitration, and figured he would get around Andre Ethier's $3.1m deal. But with Matt Kemp getting an average of almost $5.5m over the next two years, I would think Pence would be up in that range.

1 comment:

Peanut said...

Gotta take into account that Kemp's deal is meant to be fair over the next two seasons, including his would-be 2011 arbitration raise. It's more like he would've gotten $3 million this season and $7 million the next. With Pence going year to year, he'll wind up closer to the lower number this time around.

Moreover, Kemp puts up better and more consistent offensive numbers while playing a premium position (and being a year younger, too). He's more valuable than Pence across the board. If anything, this deal makes me wonder if Pence will even hit the $3 million mark. I think he'll be around that number, but probably not too much higher or lower. I think your Ethier comparison is much closer to the mark.