Monday, September 14, 2009

A Tale of Three Paulinos

In Felipe Paulino's last three starts, he is 0-3. However, his ERA is 2.65. In 17IP, he has a line of 14H/5ER, 20K:6BB, throwing 61% of his pitches for strikes, and an opposing batter line of .230/.299/.410. How is he 0-3? Because the Astros have scored a total of two runs in games he has started. In 14 starts this season, the Astros have scored zero/one runs in eight of those starts.

Let's take us a gander at what has changed in his three starting stints.

Paulino 1.0 (Apr 19-29): 0-2 (3 starts), 17.2IP, 19H/5ER, 13K:4BB, 2.55 ERA/1.30 WHIP, opp line of .288/.347/.348, 65% of pitches for strikes

Paulino 2.0 (May 12-Jul 3): 1-3 (7 starts), 32IP, 41H/27ER, 31K:8BB, 7.59 ERA/1.53 WHIP, opp line: .306/.345/.575, 64% strikes

Paulino 3.0 (Sep 2-13): 0-3 (3 starts), 17IP, 14H/5ER, 20K:6BB, 2.65 ERA/1.18 WHIP, opp line: .230/.299/.410, 61% strikes

Paulino has gotten 99 of his 282 pitches in round three for non-contact strikes (35%), getting 17 swinging strikes in two of his last three starts. So this is encouraging for Paulino as we head into 2010, but it's important to remember that he didn't throw in 2008, so precaution should be taken.


Kevin said...

It looks like he's sitting at about 1K per IP if I did my math right. Also, 5/6 teams pitched against during Paulino 1.0 & 3.0 were NL Central teams. Not too shabby.
Wasn't version 2.0 during the time he kept getting jerked around, going from rotation to bullpen? It should be obvious to mgmt that the dude needs regular scheduled starts.

Kelsey said...

Paulino's ERA as a starter is 5.37 but, if you take out the start in San Fran his ERA is 4.40. I know you can't just pretend that it didn't happen but, he has been decent as a starter. With Paulino, and Norris for that matter, it's all about throwing strikes. Their stuff is good enough to get guys out so, if they can throw strikes it will allow them to get deep into game and be capable starters.

The Constable. said...

+1 to both of you. It's absolutely correct that Paulino 2.0 was promoted/demoted a number of times before 3.0, and it's hard to get into a rhythm. It's interesting that, since Coop and Easy Eddie told him to get his crap together, he's been lights-out. The offense when he starts, however...