Wednesday, July 15, 2009

So what can we expect in the 2nd half from these guys?

I got to wondering, who generally does better in the second half of the season than they did in the first half? Or, who has already peaked out in a 162-game season of baseball? So let's look at the career numbers of first half vs. second half splits...

The Best is Yet to Come

Kaz Matsui
Career 1st half: .263/.319/.371, 2.26:1 K:BB
Career 2nd half: .296/.350/.424, 2.06:1 K:BB
I wasn't expecting that. Of course, Matsui has only started 155 games in the second half, compared to 323 in the 1st his career.

Geoff Blum
1st half: .246/.309/.371, 1.94:1 K:BB
2nd half: .258/.315/.403, 2.01:1 K:BB

Michael Bourn
1st half: .253/.320/.347, 2.22:1 K:BB
2nd half: .263/.328/.344, 2.81:1 K:BB
This is hardly a fair look, but he goes in the Going to Get Better file because he has improved. And we're talking about a difference in 614 PAs from the 1st half career to the 2nd half. So we'll just have to see.

Roy Oswalt
1st half: 67-48, 3.39 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 3.27:1 K:BB ratio, .262/.310/.396 against
2nd half: 67-20, 2.89 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 4.03:1 K:BB ratio, .246/.292/.374 against
This is just disgusting. A great pitcher gets even better in July/August/September. And hopefully October.

Mike Hampton
1st half: 76-65, 4.08 ERA/1.48 WHIP, 1.49:1 K:BB ratio, .277/.347/.397 against
2nd half: 70-46, 3.96 ERA/1.39 WHIP, 1.60:1 K:BB ratio, .265/.332/.399 against

Jose Valverde
1st half: 90 saves/15 losses, 4.08 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 2.80:1 K:BB ratio, .233/.313/.412 against
2nd half: 60 saves/4 losses, 2.19 ERA/0.95 WHIP, 3.78:1 K:BB ratio, .170/.249/.260 against
Probably the most pointed difference on the team, hopefully this also leads to him being traded. Preferably for nine top-flight prospects.

The Best is Behind Us

1st half: .310/.348/.498, 2.68:1 K:BB ratio
2nd half: .286/.322/.441, 2.96:1 K:BB ratio
Uh-oh. It's been a long time since Pudge even hit .286. Strikeouts up? Could be a long second half. Hurry up, Jason Castro.

Lance Berkman
1st half: .304/.418/.576, 1.02:1 K:BB ratio
2nd half: .295/.406/.536, 1.12:1 K:BB ratio
Honestly, hitting .295 would be an upgrade over 2009 Berkman. But look at this...
2008 1st half: .347/.443/.653
2008 2nd half: .259/.384/.436

Wandy Rodriguez
1st half: 31-26, 4.24 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 2.24:1 K:BB ratio, .264/.331/.434 against
2nd half: 14-20, 4.96 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 2.09:1 K:BB ratio, .266/.339/.424 against
Wandy has defied logic all season long, so there's no real obvious reason to think he can't keep it rolling over the second half.

Brian Moehler
1st half: 48-51, 4.49 ERA/1.41 WHIP, 1.97:1 K:BB ratio, .284/.333/.461 against
2nd half: 33-45, 5.06 ERA/1.49 WHIP, 1.97:1 K:BB ratio, .302/.349/.467 against

They'll Keep Doing What They Do

Miguel Tejada
1st half: .288/.338/.470, 1.82:1 K:BB
2nd half: .289/.347/.472, 1.93:1 K:BB
Pretty consistent over the course of the season, we'll see if Tejada is having one of those fabled Contract Years in the second half, as he's currently sitting about 40 points above his career average for a first half...

Carlos Lee
1st half: .288/.342/.503, 1.59:1 K:BB
2nd half: .295/.347/.504, 1.71:1 K:BB
Slight bump in the 2nd half batting average numbers, but has started 903 games in the 1st half as opposed to 641 starts in the 2nd. The season is just sooo long, and Jack in the Box is open sooo late.

Hunter Pence
1st half: .298/.343/.490, 1.69:1 K:BB
2nd half: .284/.343/.496, 2.63:1 K:BB
Same as with Bourn, we're talking about a limited sample size due to the fact that Pence is still a pretty young player. But he gets points for consistency so far.

Russ Ortiz
1st half: 61-52, 4.31 ERA/1.50 WHIP, 1.35:1 K:BB ratio, .258/.349/.395 against
2nd half: 52-34, 4.56 ERA/1.47 WHIP, 1.44:1 K:BB ratio, .255/.346/.418 against

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