Showing posts with label Speculation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Speculation. Show all posts

Thursday, July 23, 2015

What to do with the 25-Man roster?

The 25-Man roster is full. The 40-Man roster is at 39, with Thatcher's DFA. The Astros have Kazmir on the way, and Lowrie rehabbing in Corpus for a return sometime next week (personal speculation only). So that's two spots on the active roster that will need to be filled...what will the Astros do with them?

The Astros will need to clear one spot on the 25-Man in the next 24 hours. Here are the possibilities I can think of:

a) Send Singleton back to Fresno. Lowrie will be getting time at the corners when he returns, and there's always Gattis and Carter getting time there, as well.

b) Send Hoes back to Fresno. Gattis will just have to play LF every now and then, and with Tucker, Marisnick, and Rasmus situated in the outfield, Gattis can act as a 4th OF if needed.

c) DFA Fausto Carmona Roberto Hernandez. This clears a spot on the 25-Man and the 40-Man, allowing both Kazmir to join and Lowrie to rejoin. Not Fausto has only appeared in four games in July - two since July 4 - so it's not as though the Astros need him to mop up innings. If the Astros *really* wanted to keep Velasquez's innings down, they could move him out of the rotation and into the bullpen for the stretch run and let him own that fastball through the push.

You probably want something done with Tony Sipp, but that's not going to happen as he's the only lefty reliever now that Thatcher's gone.

There are other possibilities, but these are the three - and two of them are going to have to happen -  that stand out to me. Remember, the Astros need one 40-Man spot, but two 25-Man spots. We're also not mentioning the possibility that spots open up with trades over the next eight days.


Thursday, February 6, 2014

Who getting cut

Here's what we know about Jerome Williams' contract situation (courtesy of Evan Drellich):

*Williams will make a guaranteed $2.1m.
*There is the possibility of an additional $1m in incentives - $100,000 for 12, 15, 20, 25, and 30 games started, as well as $100,000 for reaching 120IP, and apparently $100,000 for every additional 10IP up to 210IP.
*That last part mathematically makes no sense.

What is also means is that somebody is going to have to get optioned off the 40-Man roster. We can presume that it will be a pitcher. The pitchers currently on the 40-Man roster are:

Matt Albers, Anthony Bass, Kevin Chapman, Jose Cisnero, Paul Clemens, Jarred Cosart, Jesse Crain, Luis Cruz, Darin Downs, Scott Feldman, Josh Fields, Lucas Harrell, Dallas Keuchel, Chia-Jen Lo, David Martinez, Collin McHugh, Brett Oberholtzer, Rudy Owens, Brad Peacock, Chad Qualls, Raul Valdes, Alex White, Jerome Williams, Asher Wojciechowski, Josh Zeid.

Who is not getting optioned off the roster?
Matt Albers, Anthony Bass, Kevin Chapman, Jarred Cosart, Jesse Crain, Darin Downs, Scott Feldman, Josh Fields, Dallas Keuchel, Chia-Jen Lo, David Martinez, Brett Oberholtzer, Rudy Owens, Brad Peacock, Chad Qualls, Alex White, Jerome Williams, Asher Wojciechowski, and Josh Zeid. Jerome Williams is not getting optioned off the roster, because the point of this exercise is to see who Jerome Williams will replace.

So which players are left?
Jose Cisnero, Paul Clemens, Luis Cruz, Lucas Harrell, Collin McHugh, Raul Valdes.

Let's look!

Jose Cisnero will be 25 in April. He allowed an .826 OPS in 28 games (43.2IP) with 8.5 K/9. He also suffered from a .341 BABIP. Away from Minute Maid Park, Cisnero held opponents to a .678 OPS (.907 at home). He also really only had one bad month in nine July appearances (.300/.447/.567) and two bad outings in August. I think Cisnero stays on the roster because of his youth, and the flashes of decency.

Paul Clemens is what we like to call White Boy Crazy. He'll be 26 next week, and had a very up-and-down year, finishing the season with a 5.40 ERA/1.47 WHIP shuttling between the rotation and the bullpen. Given the moves that have been made, and the sheer number of rotation candidates coming in to camp, I think Clemens - if he survives the Jerome Williams Experience and Spring Training - is headed to the bullpen. He also has options left, so he could get outrighted off the 40-Man and wouldn't have to pass through waivers.

Luis Cruz won't be 24 until September, and also has only reached Double-A for 17IP at the end of 2013. In those 17IP he allowed five hits, four walks, and struck out 21. Cruz isn't getting taken off the roster.

Lucas Harrell will be 29 by the All-Star Break and his struggles are well-documented. After being in the mix for the Imaginary Title of Opening Day Starter, he led the league in walks and losses, and was the target of much angst, consternation, and outright hatred. Harrell is also out of options, so if he was taken off the 40-Man roster, he would first have to pass through waivers.

Collin McHugh will be 27 in June and was claimed off waivers by the Astros in December. So, to be perfectly superficial about this, I can't see the Astros designating McHugh less than two months after they 

Raul Valdes is 36 years old, and was claimed off waivers by the Astros in early October. In 35IP for the Phillies in 2013, Valdes gave up 42 hits (but only walked eight) with a 7.46 ERA/1.43 WHIP. He also allowed seven home runs.

Given their youth, I'm guessing Cisnero and Cruz stay. I also think McHugh stays on the 40-Man. Despite my innate distaste for Lucas Harrell, his 2013 season was so incongruous from 2012 that I would be surprised if the Astros cut him loose. And I suppose the same goes for Clemens - valuable in that he can come in for four or five innings after Erik Bedard or Lucas Harrell has already lost the game by the end of the 1st inning.

So I guess I took the long way to end up at the same conclusion as others: Raul Valdes is out.