Tuesday Morning Hot Links

*Jeff Bagwell is running at 89% in the BBWAA Poll Tracker, appearing on 33 of 37 ballots. Bagwell needs to gain 15 votes over last year in order to make the 75% threshold. He has gained one so far. Juan Vené from Coral Gables is the latest to not vote for Bagwell.

*Five years after Jim Crane bought the Astros, the plan is falling into place in 2017. Crane:
We always said we'd spend the money when we could spend it effectively, and now is the time. We've raised the payroll steadily the last three or four years and got it up to over $120 million this year. We're spending the resources we think we need to be competitive and get in the playoffs and win a championship. That's the goal. 

*John Sickels has his 2017 Top 20 Prospects for the Astros. Sickels' Top Five:
1. Francis Martes
2. Kyle Tucker
3. David Paulino
4. Yulieski Gurriel
5. Franklin Perez

Lots to be excited about in reading this list, but the write-up for #12 A.J. Reed is savage: Could turn into Anthony Rizzo if he makes adjustments, Jon Singleton if he doesn't. 

*Newest Astro signing Cionel Perez is not real happy with having to take a $3m+ cut in his signing bonus. In a letter from Perez through his agency to MLB and the MLBPA he wrote:
I am happy to begin my professional career but I feel abused by this system...

*Alex Bregman, who is eligible to play for Team Israel in this Spring's World Baseball Classic, said he would play only for Team USA if chosen, having played for Team USA as an Under-16, Under-18,  and twice in college. Bregman:
I have played for Team USA for four years and have won two Gold medals with them and I want to continue to play for my country. If the USA gives me the opportunity to play for them...I will accept the invitation and play. They're the only team that I'm going to play for. If not, I'm going to be in Spring Training. 

*The Cardinals signed former Astros great Jordan Schafer to a minor-league deal. Schafer struck out 46 batters in 40IP as a pitcher for the Dodgers' Double-A team in Tulsa last season.

*MLB has banned "offensive" rookie hazing, such as making rookies dress up as women for team flights.

Thursday Lunchtime Hot Links

Here's what's up:

*Jim Callis says he would draft Brady Aiken with next month's 1-1 pick. Aiken currently has 80K:7BB in 43.2IP, has been more consistent than Rodon or Jeff Hoffman, and is more polished than Tyler Kolek. Callis:
Aiken's heater now operates at 92-94 mph and reaches 97, and he has maintained the life on the pitch and his ability to command it. His curve has added more power and depth as well, and his circle changeup has become more deceptive.

*Jonathan Mayo says the Astros should stick with Carlos Rodon. Mayo:
There's a reason Rodon is regarded as the best college lefty since David Price. Stuff-wise, he offers two plus pitches (and his changeup will be plenty good enough to give him three), all coming from a big, strong, workhorse-type body.

*Sports on Earth's Mike Pielluci says NC State's head coach has cost Carlos Rodon at least a couple of million dollars.

*John Sickels released his updated Top 150 prospects list. On it:
Carlos Correa (#13), George Springer (#15), Jon Singleton (#28), Lance McCullers (#48), Mark Appel (#51), Mike Foltynewicz (#58), Vince Velasquez (#90), Delino DeShields (#102), Rio Ruiz (#150 #105).

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

Here's what you need to know while we try not to doze off at work from staying up until midnight last night celebrating (quietly) the win over Seattle.

*Jim Crane would like a resolution to CSN Houston within 30 days.

*Jimmy Traina interviewed new celebrity Delino DeShields about getting hit in the face last weekend. DeShields: "I do have a good sense of humor about it because it could be a lot worse and I'm not dead."

Also, DeShields is a bawse:
I have a football mindset. I'm gonna get in the box and it's still gonna be a battle between me and whoever is throwing and you're still trying to win. If anything, I'll have nerve because I'm excited to play again, but as far as being scared, naw, that's not me. If I get hit in the face again, so be it. I signed up, I'm committed to play this sport, there's nothing in the contract or rules that say you aren't gonna get hit in the face or be injured or anything like that, and I know that so I'm just gonna go and continue and do what I love to do. Nothing will change.

*The Crawfish Boxes says not to panic about the offensive woes.

*George Springer went to live with Seattle's Brad Miller this offseason because of Connecticut weather.

*Via What The Heck Bobby we find that Japhet Amador has been loaned back to Diablos Rojos.

*Lookout Landing says Mike Zunino's freaking moonshot last night may have been fair after all.

*John Sickels profiled Jon Singleton as his prospect of the day.

*Finally, slide on down and meet the newest writer for Astros County, the Masked Marvel. 

Minor League Ball's Top 20 Astros prospects

John Sickels posted his Top 20 Astros prospects today, with letter grades and write-ups. In the interest of driving traffic to his site, we'll only list the names and order, and let you click through.

1) Carlos Correa
2) George Springer
3) Mark Appel
4) Mike Foltynewicz
5) Lance McCullers, Jr.
6) Vince Velasquez
7) Domingo Santana
8) Michael Feliz
9) Jon Singleton
10) Rio Ruiz
11) Delino DeShields
12) Asher Wojciechowski
13) Max Stassi
14) Nick Tropeano
15) Josh Hader
16) Kyle Smith
17) Andrew Thurman
18) Danry Vazquez
19) Teoscar Hernandez
20) Nolan Fontana

Mock Draft time!

Three notable Mock Drafts have come out today, so let's see what they think the Astros will do three weeks from today.

Keith Law:

Insider-only, so we won't pull anything other than the mention that "Industry Sources" believe the Astros will go with Gray as it may take less to sign him than Appel. He also says to keep a line on UNC 3B Colin Moran.

John Sickels:

Mark Appel - Gray seems to have little more momentum at this point, but I'll buck consensus slightly and slot Appel here on the theory that he makes a late charge and/or Gray slumps just a hair.

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo:
Jonathan Gray - Gray has separated himself this year, along with Mark Appel, whom the Astros didn't take a year ago.

John Sickels' Top 20 Astros prospects

John Sickels posted his Top 20 prospect list for the Astros yesterday. Click the link for the full description of the players, but here's the list:

1. Carlos Correa
2. Jon Singleton
3. George Springer
4. Jarred Cosart
5. Lance McCullers
6. Delino DeShields
7. Mike Foltynewicz
8. Nick Tropeano
9. Rio Ruiz
10. Domingo Santana
11. Jonathan Villar
12. Nolan Fontana
13. Asher Wojciechowski
14. Robbie Grossman
15. Marc Krauss
16. Vincent Velasquez
17. Adrian Houser
18. Ariel Ovando
19. Aaron West
20. Brady Rodgers

Sickels:
Now, that's what I call a rapid turnaround. In two years, this farm system has gone from empty to robust.

Weekend Link Dump

*Awful news out of the organization, as Carlos Corporan and his wife Stephanie lost their 16-month old son over the weekend.

It came out this past April that Corporan's son had heart trouble, and had at least two heart surgeries as a premature baby. So everyone take a moment to offer one up to the Corporan family.

*John Sickels takes a look at how the Cardinals were built- sixteen of the 25 men on their post-season roster were acquired through the draft.

*"The best thing that could have happened to Jimmy VanOstrand was getting cut by the lowly Houston Astros."

*The Corpus Christi Caller-Times' Lee Goddard remembers the 1980 NLCS.

*The Sunshine Kids Foundation celebrated its 30th anniversary.

Jordan Lyles = Brad Radke?

Over at Minor League Ball John Sickels examined the Top 50 pitching prospects, and evaluated their seasons.

Our very own Jordan Lyles was #17, and Sickels had this to say:
Grade B+: 3.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB in 62 Triple-A innings. Went 2-8, 5.36 in 94 major league innings with 67/26 K/BB and 107 hits allowed. Remains on the Brad Radke career track.

Your first thought was probably similar to mine, in which you thought, "BRAD F&#@(ING RADKE!?" and got all indignant. But before we arbitrarily pass judgment, let's see if it's right:

Lyles' minor-league numbers.

Single-A: 144.2IP, 134H/52ER, 3.24 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 167K:38BB
Double-A: 127.0IP, 133H/44ER, 3.12 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 115K:35BB
Triple-A: 94.0IP, 112H/44ER, 4.21 ERA/1.49 WHIP, 64K:28BB
Houston: 94.0IP, 107H/56ER, 5.36 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 67K:26BB

Alright. How about Radke?

Single-A: 165.2IP, 149H/54ER, 2.93 ERA/1.18 WHIP, 127K:47BB
Double-A: 262.1IP, 248H/94ER, 3.22 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 199K:50BB
Minnesota: 2451.0IP, 2643H/1150ER, 4.22 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 1467K:445BB

Radke posted 9.7 hits/9, 1.6 BB/9, a 3.30 K:BB ratio, and an OPS+ over 100 in 10 of his 12 seasons (averaging 113 OPS+).

I think if Lyles turned into Brad Radke - a guy you could count on for 10+ seasons (Radke was 22 when he came up with the Twins in 1995) to turn in above-average numbers - I would somehow be okay with that.

J.D. Martinez is the Prospect of the Day

That's according to John Sickels.

Sickels:
All of his components have improved: he boosted his BB% from 7.2% in Double-A last year to 12.3% this year, while lowering his K% from 20.3% to 14.9%. He's been especially hot lately and has the strike zone locked in, hitting .425/.556/.750 with 12 walks and just four strikeouts in his last 12 games. Houston officials praise his feel for hitting and plate discipline.

In order for Martinez to get promoted, the OKC OF of Shuck, Durango, Barnes/DeLome is going to have to get shuffled up. Thus making the Durango waiver claim that much more of a head-scratcher.

John Sickels on the Astros 2011 draft

We don't feel qualified to pass grades/judgment on the Astros 2011 draft. But you know who is? John Sickels, of Minor League Ball.

Click the link for a full review, but here's your close:
A solid draft. Springer is an excellent choice, and the three subsequent pitchers have high upside arm strength. The rest of the draft balances upside with polish. Refined pitchers Trofeano, Dufek and Hallock provide some farm system depth and leaven the raw upside choices. Overall I like this, especially if they can sign Strubbefield or Flamion to overslot deals.

Mock...Draft!

With another captip to Deputy Street, we get Minor League Ball's mock draft for 2011.

Where do the Astros fall?
Dylan Bundy, RHP, Oklahoma HS: The Astros have been attracted to high school arms, and Bundy makes a lot of sense here. It comes down to him or Taylor Guerrieri, but Bundy has a bit more polish and is closer geographically.

Sickels, on 2010 draft

With a captip to the Crawfish Boxes, Minor League Ball's John Sickels wrote a review of the first round of the 2010 June Draft.

On Delino DeShields:
Georgia prep with major league bloodlines is struggling so far: .200/.274/.307 for Low-A Lexington in the Sally League. Appears quite raw, has been caught stealing four times in ten attempts, has already made seven errors at second base, plate discipline poor.

On Mike Foltynewicz:
Struggling thus far, but not out of expectation for an Illinois cold-weather high school guy who is just 19 years old. Reportedly very impressive in spring training.

And Mike Kvasnicka:
Better than his weak NY-P performance last year, but the BB/K isn't great, and his defense at third base remains rough, with eight errors in 21 games.

Good rundown of the 1st round, and it's always interesting to see how the hitters stack up against each other, even with a small sample size.

Just because the Astros like Wallace doesn't mean everybody does

The invaluable Minor League Ball, by John Sickels, has an interesting note on Brett Wallace:

There are all kinds of stories/rumors floating around out there about how disappointing Wallace has been, with scouts picking apart his swing mechanics and many predicting that he'll never pan out at all.

He's clearly got some plate discipline issues to work out, too. I am no expert on swing mechanics, but while it is apparent to me that expectations for Wallace were too high, I just can't get behind writing a hitter off after 51 games and 144 at-bats. Sociologically and psychologically speaking, people tend to over-correct in cases like this. Everyone was too high on him, now people are swinging back in the opposite direction too strongly given the evidence we have. Serious swing flaws or not, it is way too soon to say that he can't or won't fix them.

Minor League Ball's preliminary prospect list

One of our favorite prospect blogs, Minor League Ball, has posted its preliminary Top 20 prospect list.

Here are the Top 10, you'll have to click it to get the next 10:

1) Jordan Lyles
2) Delino DeShields
3) Mike Foltynewicz
4) Austin Wates
5) J.D. Martinez
6) Tanner Bushue
7) Aneury Rodriguez
8) Mark Melancon
9) Jonathan Villar
10) Jimmy Paredes

Interesting that Rule 5 pick Anuery Rodriguez is now our 7th-best prospect. And all of these come in on the Ed Wade tenure.

John Sickels' Favorite HS pitchers

John Sickels has a good post recapping his favorite high school pitchers of 2010, and two in Eddie's Farm are on the list:

Mike Foltynewicz:
I usually root for the cold-weather high school guys, especially if they are from the Midwest, and Folty is no exception. For some reason I tend to like high school pitchers from Illinois, first Michael Bowden, then Jake Odorizzi, than Tanner Bushue, and now Folty.

Vincent Velasquez:
Did well in his pro debut, 3.07 ERA with 25/5 K/BB in 29 innings in the Appy League. Another good athlete with projectability, has some health problems in his past with a stress fracture in the elbow, but I do find him intriguing.

Minor League Ball's 2010 prospect list in review

John Sickels has an interesting read this morning - his annotated 2010 Top 20 Astros prospect list in review.

I'm not going to pull a whole lot, but here are some interesting thoughts on Eddie's Farm:

On Jiovanni Mier:
Has drawn some walks, stolen 12 bases, but has also made 31 errors and not shown nearly the pop he demonstrated last year in rookie ball. Still interesting due to youth and athleticism, but yet another example that rookie ball stats (and scouting reports) have to be taken with a grain of salt.

On Ross Seaton:
Incredible home/road split: 8.82 ERA with 29/19 K/BB and 89 hits in 51 innings at home, 4.42 ERA with 42/22 K/BB in 77 innings on the road, 78 hits. Road stats are more his genuine talent level I'd say.

On Chris Johnson:
I saw him play Double-A and Triple-A in '08 and '09, and while he had bat speed, his approach was poor, both in person and on paper. His BB/K is still lousy this year (18/63 overall) but there he is with the gaudy numbers. I think it is a fluke and that he's really a .250-.270 hitter, but I could be wrong. Other analysts have seen him as a breakout guy even when I was skeptical.

On J.D. Martinez:
I had him rated as a sleeper in the book and he's definitely woken up. He's got decent physical tools and it is hard to believe he lasted until the 20th round last year.

Lyles starting to get more respect

Minor League Ball's John Sickels has a quick hit on Jordan Lyles:

I know he doesn't have the 99 MPH fastball that attracts notice, but he throws hard enough in the low-90s, his secondary stuff is advanced for his age, he throws strikes, and his performance has been excellent. He's also a good athlete. I don't know why he doesn't get more attention, but he looks like a helluva prospect to me. At this rate he'll be a Top Ten Pitching Prospect by the end of the year. Depending on what happens with other pitchers and what his year-end numbers and scouting reports look like, he could be a Top Five guy.

John Sickels' Astros Draft Recap

Over at Minor League Ball, John Sickels broke down the Astros' draft, with notes and comments on the first ten rounds worth of picks.

The Astros have gone against consensus in recent drafts and have had good results with it. DeShields and Folty were moving up draft boards rapidly, and while both might be slight overdrafts, neither were going to be around for subsequent picks and I don't think either are super-stretches. The Astros wanted them, so they picked them. I don't see anything wrong with that. Kvasnicka was slotted well, and college guys Wates and Doran went in appropriate rounds. Velasquez will need lots of time. Shirley is pretty raw for a college guy but intriguing from the left side. If they somehow sign Jacoby Jones away from LSU, this would be a terrific class. As it stands, it still looks pretty decent to me.