Friday Morning Link Dump

A few things for your perusal this morning...

*CBS Sports' Matt Snyder, in his 2014 team preview, says the Astros will be picking first in 2015.

*Jonah Keri, meanwhile, bets the Over on 63 Astros wins in 2014.

*Two Astros scouts attended a memorial service for Jim Fregosi at the Phillies' spring complex.

La Russa and Fregosi

The Philadelphia Inquirer has a note on the Astros' managerial situation:

With La Russa's contract up in St. Louis, reports from Cincinnati say the Reds - who have suffered nine consecutive losing seasons - will make a pitch to hire him. That means Dusty Baker's tenure with the Reds could be over.

ESPN.com reported that former Phillies general manager Ed Wade, now with the Houston Astros, will interview former Phils manager Jim Fregosi. The 67-year-old last managed with the Blue Jays in 1999-2000.

Justice's Five Point Plan of course includes hiring Jim Fregosi

Justice's column this morning is like when your roommate in college asks you if you'll be able to give him a ride home every 15 minutes in Finals Week. We get it. You like Jim Fregosi.

Regardless, Justice outlines his Five-Point Plan to fix the Astros:

1. Be realistic. The Astros didn't become terrible overnight, and they're not going to be fixed overnight.

2. Establish continuity. The Astros have had three general managers and four managers since the middle of the 2004 season. No other franchise has had so much turmoil, which is an indication of organizational chaos and placing the blame for failures in all the wrong places.

3. Hire Jim Fregosi to be manager. Manny Acta, Bob Melvin, Don Baylor and Ned Yost would all be terrific choices, and Acta is especially appealing because of his history with the organization. However, Fregosi brings credibility the franchise needs and a personal presence to refocus the clubhouse on winning.

4. Return to the time-tested core principles of pitching and defense. Every move should be made with pitching and defense in mind.

5. Re-sign Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins for the back of the bullpen and spring for one reliable starting pitcher to put in a rotation that has Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and Brian Moehler.

I wonder if Fregosi owes Justice money. And the only way that Justice is going to get it back is if he has to talk to Fregosi 80-100 times a year. I think this Five-Point Plan is similar to everybody's Five-Point Plan: Pitch well, play good defense, establish a respectable franchise. The only part of this that doesn't make sense is resigning Valverde.

Within Justice's column, he acknowledges it may be 2012 before the Astros can win their division again. So why commit $10m/year until Valverde is 35 (or 36, or...) for that to happen. Point Five flies in the face of Point One in being realistic. LaHawk can handle the 9th inning. Let's see if a bullpen anchored by Arias/Fulchino can get it to him. To commit what looks to be about 12% of the payroll to a closer who might be in a position to save 20-25 games is ludicrous. So let's be realistic, and let's use Valverde's $10m somewhere else...

Justice: Manny Acta? Jim FreGOsi

About 12 hours after Manny Acta confirmed that he is one of the managerial candidates coming to interview, Richard Justice says Jim Fregosi is the man.

He's not the only competent person the Astros are going to interview. He has a longer résumé and probably is held in higher regard inside the game, but a case could be made for Manny Acta, Don Baylor, Bob Melvin, Ned Yost and others.

It's just that Fregosi brings so many things this franchise badly needs. First, there's his mere a presence, a calming presence, a confident presence. His oversized personality fills up a room and has the power to sweep others up and to make them believe good things are possible.

He brings something else the Astros desperately need. That's his professionalism, and more importantly, his intolerance of those who do not care as much as he does. If Lance Berkman doesn't run hard to first base or if Carlos Lee gets himself stupidly thrown out on the bases, they will hear about it.

“We need a guy that will get the best from our veteran players,” Drayton McLane said Friday. “We haven't been getting that.”

This is absolutely true. And while I think it's important to hire a manager who knows how to deal with veterans, I would also like to know that the veterans know how to be adults. Maybe you noticed, maybe you didn't, but if you watch Game 2 of the Cards/Dodgers series, James Loney ended up on second base on the Holliday error. Would Berkman or Lee have been in the same position?

The close:
My guess is Acta will be the next manager of the Astros, and he'll probably do a tremendous job. He has spent most of his professional career with the Astros and has a passion for the franchise that rivals anyone in the clubhouse or management.

But Jim Fregosi is worth a long look. He's what the Astros need in terms of credibility, confidence and leadership. Players need a guy who believes in them, and they need someone with the guts to hold them accountable. Fregosi isn't the only candidate capable of doing this, but none of the others would do it better.

Eeyore thanks you for noticing

John Royal (now known as Eeyore), of the Houston Press, talks managerial candidates:

If you're like me, you're just dreading this Astros off-season because you know, just like I know, that Drayton McLane is going to make nothing but bad decisions. The worst decision to be made will probably involve the manager position where the favorites for the job appear to be Jim Fregosi -- an old guy who is a pal of Ed Wade and is awful with young players -- and Dave Clark who so far, as interim manager, has not impressed.

So far, as in, "three games against the eventual division champions in which the Astros went 1-2."

Eeyore speculates that Nolan Ryan probably will not be a part of the new Rangers ownership group, so it's possible he'll return.

Your closing lines:
McLane might also want to talk to people involved with the Florida Marlins and Minnesota Twins, both teams that, despite small-market status and low payrolls, seem to find a way to compete every year.

But who am I kidding? None of that is going to happen. Not while Drayton McLane is in charge.

Person Familiar With Astros Plans speaks up

Jon Heyman's column today has some news for Astros fans, after scaring the bejeezus out of us by announcing the Cardinals will try to lock up both Holliday and Pujols this off-season.

ANYway, on the managerial search:
A person familiar with the Astros' plans says they will interview Manny Acta for their managerial opening. But if the Houston Chronicle's candidate list has any legs, he'll have plenty of company. It's a veritable potpourri of former Astros stars and current Astros coaches and decision-makers.

Always nice when the national media questions the validity of the local media.

Heyman first lists Jim Fregosi, but intriguingly enough, Barry Axelrod - Bagwell and Biggio's agent - declined to comment until "real contact" was made by the Astros.

And then, out of absolutely nowhere:
The other possibility, and it's probably a long shot (though the possibility has been rumored), would be to hope La Russa and Duncan bolt the Cardinals and they can steal that vaunted tandem from the best team in the NL Central. That would be a coup, as it's hard to imagine La Russa ditching a great situation in St. Louis for a team with troubles.

This would rock the very foundations of my soul. Thoughts?

Stark busts on JJO

In his Rumblings and Grumblings column, Stark says this:

Any speculation you hear about the next manager in Houston is going to be all guesswork, because the Astros don't even have a shopping list yet.

This in stark contrast to JJO's posit that there is a 2+ page list. Keep reading, please:

The vibe, from folks who have spoken to the Houston brass, is that the Astros strongly prefer a manager with experience. So here's some guesswork from this bleacher seat: Don't discount Jim Fregosi, who has interviewed in Houston before and has ties to Wade from their days together in Philly.

Meanwhile, how did Coop keep his job for so long?

It's become more and more clear that only owner Drayton McLane stood in the way of Cooper getting fired months ago. Astros players have told friends that at least one player went to McLane as long ago as spring training to tell him Cooper had lost the clubhouse. And there have been indications the baseball people wanted to change managers in May, but McLane wouldn't sign off on it. (Emphasis his).

Who has that close a relationship with McLane? Roy. Lance. Maybe someone else, but I doubt it. This doesn't look good for Run-DMc, but at least I'm confident that the next manager might outlast Wade.

The Houston Press has your vote of confidence...

And it's tucked, somewhere. The HP headline is "Your next Houston Astros manager should be..." But there's only who it shouldn't be. And I'm sure this is what Drayton means when he says the Astros have the best fans in baseball:

Seeing as it's Drayton McLane doing the hiring, I'm sure that no matter who gets the job it will be the wrong person.

In the worthwhile portion of this post, Royal crosses names off the list.

Dave Clark: Clark's primary qualification for the job seems to be that the players really, really, really like him. His other qualification seems to be that he's been the team's third-base coach, and he's sucked as badly as a third-base coach as Cooper sucked while he was Phil Garner's bench coach. So while it's okay to let Clark run out the string, it's probably safe to say that if this guy is managing the team in 2010 then this team will probably suck just as bad as this current team.

Jim Fregosi: Fregosi led the then-California Angels to their first playoff spot in 1979, and he led the Philadelphia Phillies to the World Series in 1993 -- he was also the guy the Angels traded for Nolan Ryan. But he's not known for his ability to develop young players, and he's also known as a guy who tends to let the players run the clubhouse, and I would think the Astros are tired of guys like Carlos Lee leading the clubhouse.

Manny Acta: Acta had the misfortune of managing the Nationals, who have been one of the worst teams in baseball since moving from Montreal to Washington. This was more the fault of a bungling front office than it was Acta, but seeing as how the Astros' front office has been a bunch of bungling fools since Gerry Hunsicker left, and seeing as how the Astros seem to be as bereft of talent as the Nationals, then Acta is the wrong guy. This guy might be able to win with talent, but he's proven that he can't win with old, washed-up veterans and a non-existent pitching rotation.

Al Pedrique: Pedrique seems to be under consideration because he's already part of the Astros system. And frankly, seeing how awful the Astros organization has been this decade, that should be an automatic disqualification.

Jeff Bagwell/Craig Biggio: Jeff Bagwell has given no indication that he wants to manage...And watching Craig Biggio's "me first" form of playing should be evidence that he shouldn't be a major-league manager. Besides, except for Biggio with a bunch of high school kids, none of these guys has any managing experience. We're talking Drayton McLane here, so their lack of managing experience doesn't matter because he probably thinks -- and is probably right -- that there would be enough fools out in the city who would buy tickets for Astros games because one of these guys was managing.

Brad Ausmus: I think Ausmus would be a fantastic manager. Some of the best current managers are former catchers -- Mike Scioscia with the Angels, Joe Girardi with the Yankees, Joe Torre with the Dodgers, and Bruce Bochy with the Giants are just four that I can think of. But I also think he needs to actually earn a managing job. Let him go to the minors for a couple of years, or work as a bench coach. But his first job upon retiring as an active player shouldn't be as the manager of the Houston Astros.

Back on September 8, Royal put forth Frank Robinson as an option for Coop's replacement. He is also someone who would punch Lance Berkman in the mouth (but he'll have to get in line). Royal said:
He has never managed a team to the playoffs. So he appears to be just another manager who has been given the opportunity to fail with multiple managing jobs. But it's for this reason that he's the best possible manager for the Astros next season...Robinson was able to get Alfonso Soriano to stop pouting and to make an effort when he was forced to change positions, so think of what he could with the likes of Carlos Lee. And if Robinson couldn't command the respect of the Astros clubhouse, then it's just not possible to tame that clubhouse and massive changes elsewhere need to be made.

Justice's Managerial Front-runner

Richard Justice has a name at the top of his list:

Former manager Jim Fregosi is there, though Dave Clark, Manny Acta, Tim Bogar, Jeff Bagwell and Brad Ausmus are on his list, too.

He worked with Wade during six years as manager of the Phillies, was the manager when the Phils won the 1993 National League pennant and has remained close to him.

Ed would have to sell Drayton on the choice. Fregosi may be a little too opinionated and a little too profane for Drayton. He's also 67 years old and hasn't managed a big league game in nine years.

He has remained close to the game working as a scout and is held in high regard by people at all levels of the game. He was a six-time All-Star during an 18-year playing career. Perhaps the biggest selling point is that he would bring a toughness the Astros need.

Ed Wade and Tal Smith want an ingredient of toughness in the next manager, and they'll be closely watching to see how Dave Clark handles certain things these next two weeks.

For instance, if Carlos Lee doesn't run hard to first base, does he ignore it? Does he confront him? Does he remove him from the game?

There's a feeling in the front office that too many things were allowed to slide, and that the next manager must establish a way to play in terms of effort...

... This search should be the last one the Astros conduct for a long, long time. This is where the organizational chaos must end. They've had four managers and three general managers since the 2004 All-Star Break. No other team in baseball has had such change.

All these changes tell you is that Drayton McLane has seen the Astros as one player or one managerial switch away from being back in the playoffs. He saw his franchise for what he hoped it was instead of what it actually was....

... I'm absolutely convinced of two things. One is that Drayton now understands the importance of the draft and player development. The Astros have done an extraordinary job getting their picks signed and in uniform the last two years. It'll be awhile before we know how good the players are, but the early returns have been good.

Second, I don't think Drayton is going to talk about being a champion anytime soon. He may speak of it as an organizational goal and all of that, but he understands that the Astros have holes now and are going to have more holes next year.

The 2010 Astros are going to be significantly younger, but there's no way of knowing if they'll be significantly better. They may sign some veteran free agents, but there won't be any long-term, big-ticket signings...

...What the Astros need to do for the new manager is make a long-term commitment. They need to conduct a thorough search and then back the new guy 100 percent...

...Jeff Bagwell will be getting a call to judge his interest, but Dave Clark's six years of minor league managerial duty, gives him a huge advantage. If Bagwell were passionate about the job, he probably could have it, but I'm just not sure he wants it.

Tim Bogar will be getting a call too. He's the third-base coach for the Red Sox and a former Astro. Like Dave Clark, he's held in high esteem.

Mainly, this hiring is the start of a new day. It's not about a splashy hire or a popular hire. It's about making the right hire.

Ed Wade made two managerial hires in Philadelphia and got both of them right. Terry Francona and Charlie Manuel are among the top 10 managers in the game. If Wade sells Drayton on someone as good as those two, the Astros will be in good shape.