Friday Morning Hot Links

*This run of exhibition games at Choad Life Park saw an empty stadium last night, as though "taking a day off" is something that happens in baseball in 2020. It's 1-1 and the off-season barnstorming tour continues tonight.

*Brent Strom talked to Mark Berman about coming back in 2021, Correa, and Dusty, and the stable of pitchers the Astros have. It's a really good interview.

*Gold Glove finalists were released yesterday and Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, and Kyle Tucker are on the list.

*Check McTaggart's Mailbox, on Houston's 2021 outfield options, Osuna, Correa, etc.

*Took a little longer than I expected, but there's a response to Luhnow's Monday Night Interview. The Athletic's Evan Drellich:

People with knowledge of the investigation said that 'there was direct testimony that Luhnow was aware of the sign-stealing scheme.' The league's department of investigations, headed by former federal prosecutors, gathered a combination of direct evidence, circumstantial evidence and testimony that a source said would hold up in a legal forum, despite Luhnow's suggestion to the contrary. 'Luhnow received emails that put him on notice of the activity, but claims he only read parts of the emails even though he responded to the emails,' the person said. 'One witness clearly stated and provided evidence that Luhnow know, and others identified facts indicating that Luhnow knew. The best interpretation of the evidence is that Luhnow either knew exactly what the video room was doing, or knew generally what they were doing and willfully chose to keep himself in the dark.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that you could find someone in MLB's New York office who has committed themselves to burying Luhnow and the Astros at every opportunity. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that the Astros did something wrong and answered MLB's questions far more whole-heartedly than any other team had/has answered them, and they have paid more dearly than any of them. [Ed. Note: I have downloaded Ben Reiter's podcast The Edge, but have not yet listened to it, something I plan on remedying today. Ben Reiter wrote Astroball, so there's reason to believe that what he has to say is worthwhile.]

Apparently I missed that Rob Manfred responded to the Luhnow interview on Tuesday. I have grown weary of this. Manfred:

Whether he exactly knew what was going on or not is really beside the point. I wrote to all the GMs. I put them on notice that it was their obligation to make sure that their organizations were not violating any of the sign-stealing rules...He damaged the game, and as a result, he was disciplined.

This is utterly exhausting. And I'm just a fan. It's a fair question to ask, Why did the Red Sox do the Apple Watch stuff AND the video room stuff and only the film room guy get re-assigned for a year, while the Astros got the worst penalty in sports since SMU? Because MLB likes to do their killin' before breakfast, they're keeping a not-small amount of the findings of their investigation private. Other teams saw what happened to the Astros and shut the hell up. I've just sort of come to terms with the idea that this is/was a league-wide problem, and Manfred decided to let everyone think that it was an Astros-only problem (in the same way that the Mitchell Report scapegoated teams on the coasts). The noisiest opponents have been the Yankees, Dodgers, and Indians, for what it's worth. 

*Mookie Betts or Mike Trout?

*Wired: The case for reviving the Civilian Conservation Corps.

*Ken Paxton fired two of the whistleblowers who accused him of using his office to help out a donor. 

*At least everything is awful. 

*Vice: How a secretive phone company helped the crime world go dark.

*The Ringer: The heartbreaking story behind the Gin Blossoms' "Hey Jealousy."

*A Musical Selection:

Monday Morning Hot Links

Ladies, get used to these Short Hot Links:

The Astros were shut out in the AL Gold Glove Awards. But Game 7 Hero Zack Greinke won his 6th straight NL Gold Glove at pitcher.

1B: Oakland's Matt Olson (Gurriel runner-up)
2B: Chicago's Yolmer Sanchez (Altuve runner-up)
3B: Oakland's Matt Chapman (Bregman runner-up)
RF: Boston's Mookie Betts (Reddick runner-up)

*Lance McCullers stays a good dude.

*Beyond The Box Score: The Astros are still the team of the decade.

*San Diego is going to make a run at Stephen Strasburg.

*Meet the guys promoted to fill the Rays' front office spots. They're all weird, and it's pretty cool.

*Czech out my favorite baseball fiction book.

*The Guardian: My double life as a KGB double-agent.

*The Outline: This essay is just Harry Potter for people who think comparing things to Harry Potter is stupid.

*A Musical Selection:

Friday Morning Hot Links

*Game 3 will feature Yu Darvish vs. Lance McCullers. FiveThirtyEight's simulations give the Dodgers the nod 51-49. So we might as well just walk into the sea. Or, if the Astros can win three straight at home starting, I don't know, tonight, then we go parading.

Bregman on Darvish:
I think the guys in this room are familiar with him and his stuff. We're going to take the fight to him.

Darvish has changed his arm slot since getting traded to the Dodgers, and Hinch is well-aware:
There's more unpredictability around game plans and approaches in the postseason than ever. You can go in saying this is how he's thrown you in the past, and he can pitch you completely different. We saw that with Tanaka in New York. 

Darvish vs. Astros, 2012: 8IP, 7H/2ER, 11K:2BB
Darvish vs. Astros, 2013: 35IP, 15H/11ER, 52K:12BB
Darvish vs. Astros, 2014: 18IP, 20H/11ER, 20K:5BB
Darvish vs. Astros, 2015: N/A
Darvish vs. Astros, 2016: 16IP, 15H/6ER, 19K:7BB
Darvish vs. Astros, 2017: 12IP, 8H/4ER, 12K:4BB

*I was on SportsRadio 610 yesterday and said that, if you were okay with Hinch continuing to run Springer out in the leadoff spot, then following that logic you should be okay with Hinch continuing to let Giles pitch in high-leverage situations. Hinch agreed:
I did say Giles did play a pivotal role, not in giving up the run [Ed. Note: runs] but in the outs he did get. That's part of my job that I feel good about. I think Ken Giles is going to get another save in this series. I think he's going to get some really big outs. I think when the crowd is standing in this ballpark over the next couple of games, if we can have the lead and he's the right matchup, he's going to get the last out. He's done it awfully well this year.

*The roof will be closed for tonight's game, but may be open tomorrow and Sunday thanks to a poorly-timed cold front. Seriously, if it's going to be 85 on October 26, you may as well just accept that autumn doesn't exist anymore except in fairy tales and books from the days of yore, and just pray the roof can stay closed. Bregman, on playing at Minute Maid Park:
We're happy to be playing in front of our home fans. And there's something special when we play at Minute Maid Park in front of Houston people. 

McCullers is perfectly happy with the roof closed:
That's how we play most of the games here. We're very used to it. I definitely think it's part of our home-field advantage. We play 60 or more like that...which is...why a lot of the guys want it to stay the same. 

Brian McTaggart notes that, if the outside temperature is under 55 degrees, the roof stays closed. Forecasted low in Houston on Saturday and Sunday? 38 and 49, respectively.

*So TMZ had a report yesterday saying that A.J. Hinch was involved in an altercation in the team's hotel bar in Pasadena (California, though I'm sure there have been plenty of altercations in hotel bars in Pasadena, Texas). TMZ:
We're told he was having some drinks - when some hotel guests came in and started talking trash about the Astros. Sources say Hinch "snapped" and unleashed on the other patrons - cursing and yelling in the middle of the bar. One witness tells us the incident turned physical and cops were called to separate the two parties. 

Hinch disputed that account to the Chronicle:
There was no altercation. It's a shame I get asked about some nonsense and fabrications and non-stories, and I have to respond to it on a national stage.

I mean, obviously no arrests were made, but the cops were called. If Hinch (or someone else there in the hotel bar) just says, "Don't you have a Giants fan to curb-stomp?" or "Yeah, I remember my first beer," and waives them off then the police don't get called. But the cops did show up. So something happened, just not enough to warrant (get it?) any action. Regardless, this is the day Hinch truly became president.

*After playing soft 80s rock for the Astros workout at Dodger Stadium, the Astros had the Dodgers working out in complete silence.

*Alex Bregman has been talking to Carlos Beltran a lot this postseason.

*The OC Register's Bill Plunkett wonders if the Astros took the momentum of this series.

*LA Times' Bill Plaschke says Game 2 was Roberts doing what he's done for two years now.

*Jose Altuve was named the Sporting News' Player of the Year. Can't wait for here in about two weeks when we can all go crazy about the AL MVP voting.

*Dallas Keuchel's Gold Glove streak will come to an end. No Astro was selected as a Gold Glove finalist. But Ben Zobrist - who played all of 65 games at 2B - is a 2B finalist!

*Vice: The Alternate Histories of the Craziest World Series Game Ever

*Jayson Stark took to Facebook with some crazy stats about Game 2 (no team in MLB postseason history had ever hit home runs in the 9th, 10th, and 11th innings).

*USA Today: George Springer will not be silenced.

*Joel Sherman: What Aaron Judge can learn from George Springer.

*Well this isn't creepy at all: A new facial recognition app will allow fans to receive a clip if they appear on television this weekend.

*Today is the 26th anniversary of Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. John Smoltz and Jack Morris reflect on it.

Wednesday Night Rumor Roundup

Well today was a day, wasn't it? Lots of rumors and news as the GM Meetings start in Arizona, and the Astros are pretty active in them. Let's run them down:

*Jose Altuve won three awards at the Players Choice Awards tonight including MLB's Most Outstanding Player.

*Yesterday Dallas Keuchel won his 3rd straight Gold Glove award.

*Rob Manfred said they're in "the final ten yards" of the investigation into the Cardinals' breach of the Astros' Ground Control system. Manfred:
The time has come to put this one behind us. I am anxious to do that. 

*Luhnow is willing to spend money and prospects on adding a couple of bats to the lineup. Luhnow:
The reality is, we need to add somebody to our lineup. We're losing a couple good players through free agency. We've got the wherewithal - with the prospects and money - to potentially add an impact piece. We're certainly going to be looking at it...

...We need to be smart about what we do. We don't want to mortgage the future to put it all in for this year. But we do feel like we have a chance to win, so we're going to make the investment we need to. 

*To that point, Jon Paul Morosi wrote that the Astros could be interested in a trade for Tigers' Miguel Cabrera, noting the friendship between Altuve and Cabrera, who come from the same town in Venezuela. Cabrera is still owed $212m over the next seven seasons.

*In a piece about the possibility of the Yankees trading McCann, Edwin Encarnacion is looking at a 5yr/$125m deal.

*Morosi says the Astros are interested in McCann.

*The New York Daily News says that the Astros are "hot" for Carlos Beltran.

*Scott Boras doesn't expect any lingering issue with the health of Lance McCullers.

*Rob Manfred is optimistic the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will be passed by December 1.

*The people of Arlington are going to get a roof...and will be paying for it for a very long time.

Friday Morning Hot Links

*I wrote about the haunting past of Cesar Cedeno.

*Jose Altuve won the Sporting News Player of the Year award (voted on by the players themselves), joining Jeff Bagwell on a short list of Astros to have ever won it. Altuve:
I really appreciate that from my teammates and players on other teams. These are the kind of things that make you keep getting better. You wake up every morning and realize you won this award by the players, and you want to keep getting better. Not only for the team, but for the fans and for everybody that's been [helping] you. 

In each year since 2006, whomever has won the Sporting News Player of the Year award has won either the MVP or Cy Young Award.

*A.J. Hinch is looking for a bench coach after Trey Hillman accepted the manager gig for SK Wyverns of the Korea Baseball Organization. Hillman will be the first to manage three pro teams in three different countries (USA, Japan, Korea). Hinch:
Even on my staff, looking at how responsibilities can be divided up, I'm not really sure how we really want to go about it other than being on a Major League staff is very interesting to a lot of different people. We'll have to navigate through a lot of different candidates, but also a lot of different skillsets. 

*Dallas Keuchel, George Springer, and Colby Rasmus are all up for Gold Glove awards. Those will be announced on November 8. The only election announcement that will really impact the country on that day, imo.

*Hinch thinks that, because of the 2016 playoffs, managers may utilize their bullpens differently in 2017 though he doubts the game will undergo a significant bullpen revolution.

*Following up on yesterday's Cionel Perez news, Luhnow would only confirm that he is not currently with the organization.

*Astros pro scouts were in Houston this week to prepare for free agency and trade targets.

*You'll have to scroll all the way down, but Jon Heyman's latest column has a note about how free agent catcher Wilson Ramos' knee injury likely cost him a nine-figure payday.

*Palm Beacher Magazine has a deep look into the Ballpark of the Seven Isles Palm Beaches.

*Where are baseball's minority managers?

*Steve Bartman: Still a touchy subject in Chicago!

*They're peaking too early in Chicago...

It's 5 AM the morning of Game 3 of the World Series. The Cubby Bear has a line already. #FlyTheW #cubsonthescore https://t.co/8bpluZ8Ooe pic.twitter.com/FzMFtIAAGn

— WXRT Chicago (@93XRT) October 28, 2016

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*The Masked Marvel has a good write up on Keuchel's and Altuve's Gold Gloves. Mactaggart noted on Twitter that it's the first time the Astros have had two Gold Glove winners on the same team since Bagwell and Biggio did it in 1994.

*Luhnow has already started conversations with free agents and other teams about possible upgrades, but admits:
I don't know which way it's going to go.

Within that article, Brewers GM David Stearns notes that this year's GM Meetings is already a little more active than in years past. Also, even though the obvious offensive upgrade is at 1B, Luhnow likes their depth. In addition to Jed Lowrie, "Valbuena can play first base. Carter we need to make a decision on. We've got Singleton. We've got Reed and (Tyler) White coming. Maybe we won't know until spring training's over and even not until the season's underway."

*The Luhnow Corollary:
The fewer spots you have where you can improve, the more pressure there is to improve on those spots. We're obviously not looking for a shortstop...for a second baseman. We feel pretty good about the top of our rotation, but we've got to figure out where in the puzzle are the areas we can improve...it becomes harder, not easier, because we know something is going to go wrong.

*Evan Drellich notes that the Astros aren't in on Ben Zobrist, at least yet, as he wants to play 2B. He also quotes Luhnow saying that it would be irresponsible to sign Scott Kazmir just to justify the trade.

*Sam Deduno was outrighted off the 40-Man Roster.

*Rob Manfred wants teams to protect their intellectual property (looks at Astros, Cardinals).

*The Reds are willing to listen on all players. Remember the Astros were engaged with the Reds on adding Aroldis Chapman back at the deadline.

*The Hall of Fame Board of Directors rejected a rule change proposed by writers to expand the ballot from 10 to 12.

Kuechel wins second Gold Glove, Altuve gets one too.

The Constable has been doing a sterling job this offseason keeping us all up to date with the news around Astros baseball.  The major news that came out today was around the winners of the Gold Gloves, and I am sure that he will make further comment later today.  Around the three Royals that were being honoured, Dallas Keuchel won his second consecutive Gold Glove, and Jose Altuve won his first.

These awards, of course, occurred after a stunning turnaround for the 2015 season, where the Astros looked the most likely of the playoff teams to roll the eventual World Series champs.  Perhaps the most unexpected aspect of the Astros' turnaround was around defence - the 2014 Astros were the worst defensive team in baseball (via the Ultimate Zone Rating, or UZR).  The standard disclaimer that defensive stats kind of suck certainly applies here.

But how bad were the 2014 Astros??  FanGraphs combines the UZR with DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), and in doing so, calculated that the Astros were worth minus-74 runs in the field, or about minus-7 wins.  The best defensive team in baseball was the Royals, who were worth about +74 runs in the field, so potentially the difference between the two teams in 2014 was 14 or 15 wins.

Fast-forward to 2015, and the Astros suddenly became a middle-of-the-pack defensive outfit.  According to Fangraphs (and, again, defensive stats be damned), the Astros were worth minus-7.6 runs overall on defence.  Their UZR improved to minus-0.6, and their DRS was the fourth in baseball, well into positive territory with a value of 30 runs saved.  It may not seem like much, but according to the numbers (and, if you trust them), the Astros improved around six wins in 2015 over 2014, and trailed the best defensive team in baseball by 6 wins, instead of 15.

The standard caveats around shifting, and whether DRS and UZR know what to do with a third baseman standing to the right-side of second base apply, of course.  But, as someone who watches the Astros regularly (and has to write about them afterward), they were certainly a better defensive team from a visual perspective.  Much of this was due to the outfield that, at times, could consist of three legit CF-able players - them being Rasmus, Marisnick / Gómez and Springer.  Swapping Matt Dominguez out with either Luis Valbuena or Jed Lowrie was also probably a bonus.  Chris Carter didn't suck at first, and Valbuena got his lefty-glove a workout at first late in the season.  And Carlos Correa visually proved that he has the defensive chops to at least stay at short for the foreseeable future.  Just like that, you have a much better run-prevention team.

So that improvement is likely reflected in a couple of Gold Gloves being directed the Astros' way.  Keuchel's award is certainly deserved - via DRS, he is the best fielding pitcher in baseball, edging out fellow Gold Glover Zack Greinke by 4 runs, or just over one-quarter of Keuchel's total defensive value.  But Jose Altuve wasn't close - he ranked at 15th in baseball on DRS (Ian Kinsler was first, a whopping 16 runs ahead of Altuve) and 55th in baseball on UZR (although many of the players on the UZR list played a very small number at second base... like Carlos Gómez, who ranked 74th in his one inning of work while in Milwaukee there).  Combining the two measures helps Altuve a little - he ranked 10th in baseball defensively, and fifth in the AL for players with over 200 innings at the position.

As many of you probably suspected, Altuve's numbers were never going to fully support this award.  This is probably more a reward for his general, all-round, good-guy attitude, and assisted by the fact that he didn't win the batting title.

As for the other infield positions??  Jason Castro was solid at Catcher, and was certainly in the conversation for the award, although inferior to the eventual winner, Sal Pérez.  Chris Carter was never in the running at first - no surprise there.  The numbers hate Carlos Correa at shortstop, rating him ninth from the bottom in baseball, ahead of Jonathan Villar, but well below defensive luminaries such as Marwin Gonzalez and Kiké Hernández.  Correa was in the same territory as Jose Reyes, for the sake of comparison.  The numbers are also unkind to Luis Valbuena, who is assessed as having a negative defensive value, but still 12 runs better than Pablo Sandoval, who is the worst of the third basemen.  Man, I am glad the Astros don't have his contract.

As for the outfielders:  George Springer is - according to FanGraphs - worth negative defensive runs in RF, as was Colby Rasmus.  Preston Tucker is apparently better in RF than both Springer and Rasmus.  Handsome Jake was the sixteenth best CF in baseball - compatible, roughly to Mookie Betts and Jarrod Dyson.  Marisnick was also the leading Astro in LF (10th in baseball), but all other Astros basically sucked in LF, including Colby Rasmus - again assessed in the negative runs saved.

I doubt that this quick and dirty analysis is going to make Astros fans fonder of either FanGraphs or defensive statistics, but there is a silver lining here.  Imagine, if you will, further improvement in the Astros' defensive abilities, plus another year of development for their young bats, and a full year of guys like Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez.  Then you have a potential 90-win team, and perhaps one that goes deeper into the postseason.  But for now, the Astros and their fans will have to be content with two Gold Gloves, even if one was more likely a recognition of a solid all-round season.

Dallas Keuchel Is a Gold Glove Finalist

Now, ordinarily, I have great disdain for the Rawling Gold Gloves. This is the organization that has given Derek Jeter FIVE awards for fielding excellence, and once gave Rafael Palmeiro the award at 1st Base in a season in which he started only 28 games at the position. But...this year I care deeply.

Because Dallas Keuchel has been named a finalist for AL pitcher, along with Mark Buehrle and Felix Hernandez. And Keuchel really should win, based on advanced stats. This year, Keuchel ranked first in the MLB in Defensive Runs Saved with 10. Buehrle has the reputation, and has already won 4 Gold Gloves, but the advanced numbers don't like him as much this year. I'm not sure why Felix is there.

So....Go Keuchel! I'm kind of desperate for a win at this point. If he loses, just remember, this is the organization that gave Derek Jeter FIVE awards for fielding excellence, and once gave Rafael Palmeiro the award at 1st Base in a season in which he started only 28 games there. The Fielding Bible Awards are much better. I'm sure he'll win that.

Bourn wins Gold Glove

Michael Bourn will get a nice little bump in salary again, thanks to his second straight Gold Glove award.

We've tried for about ten minutes now, but can't put it much more succinctly than Crawfish Boxes writer David Coleman put it:
It's great that Bourn won the GG, but that should just validate his defensive prowess, not tell us that he's good.

Reactions from Bourn

Alyson Footer has a series of tweets with quotes from Michael Bourn's press conference:

"I've always been proud of my defense. It's something I like to do. I like to work on my all around game, work on it all, because it's a total package to do what you can do on the field. In the Dominican (Winter League, in 2008), I tried to work on my defense as well as offense. It worked better over there, the ground's rough and there are tougher bounces. When you get to a regular field it made it a little easier. Everybody knows in baseball you have to show a little offense to get a Gold Glove. We know it doesn't have to do with offense, but that's what it is in baseball. You have to roll with the punches."

Footer also points out that the first Astro Bourn heard from was Darin Erstad, as well as receiving congratulatory calls from Matt Kemp, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins.

Bourn wins Gold Glove

Michael Bourn's Radiohead-esque 2009 season continues as Brian McTaggart is telling us that he has won a Gold Glove award. Congratulations to Bourn.

He's the first Astro to win a Gold Glove since Ausmus in 2006, and is the second Astro outfielder to win in franchise history (Cesar Cedeno).

Ed Wade:
"It comes as no surprise. It's a tremendous honor for Michael and well-deserved. He makes center field seem awfully small when he's out there, and I don't think you really appreciate what he does defensively until you see somebody else out there and realize how big our ballpark and other ballparks are. He covers a tremendous amount of ground, is a great athlete and has great instincts and never takes anything for granted. We're fortunate to have him, and I'm happy that his peers have recognized him for what I assume will be many Gold Gloves...

..."Those guys that worked with him on the developmental side deserve a lot of credit, and the work he's done in our organization with [coaches Jose Cruz] and [Dave] Clark and anyone else that did work with him, deserves a lot of credit. It's about the guy, and this guy happens to be an exceptional defensive center fielder.""

And Rob Neyer chimes in:
Everyone doesn't love Michael Bourn, but I rated him as the best center fielder in the National League. He's never won a Gold Glove and it would have been easy for the voters to ignore a weak-hitting kid playing for the Astros. But they didn't. Bravo, again.

Weak hitting?!

Gold Gloves to be announced today

The annual moaning begins for the National League today as the Gold Glove Awards will be announced. Whom among the Astros could win? MLB.com's Doug Miller tells us that:

Kaz Matsui with a .991 fielding percentage, six errors and 5.0 RF could be a darkhorse, although his UZR (-1.7) hurts his cause.

Or Michael Bourn, with his 8.6 UZR, or Hunter Pence, with his NL-best 16 assists could be rewarded today.

Or the voters will just give it to the guys who won last year. Look for Greg Maddux to win his 43rd Gold Glove award today.