Saturday Morning Hot Links

The Homestros struck again. After almost literally destroying the Rangers' will earlier in the week, the Astros reminded the fans to not get too excited. I'd like them to figure it out. Houston is 80-62 in 2023 - 35-35 at home. More on that in a minute. The Mariners and Rangers also lost. Toronto won.

*AL Playoff Picture:

1. Baltimore (89-51)

2. Houston (80-62)

3. Minnesota (74-67)

4. Tampa (86-56)

5. Seattle (79-62)

6. Toronto (78-63)

-

7. Balch Springs (76-64): +1.5

*AL West Odds (and Change from Yesterday)

FanGraphs:

Houston: 62.7% (+0.5%)

Seattle: 34.0% (-0.6%)

Balch Springs: 3.3% (+0.1%)

Baseball-Reference:

Houston: 62.2%

Seattle: 32.0%

Balch Springs: 5.8%

NL Wild Card Update:

1. Philadelphia (77-63): +4.0

2. Chicago (76-66): +2.0

3. Arizona (74-68): -

4. Miami (73-68): -0.5

5. Cincinnati (73-70): -1.5

6. San Francisco (71-70): -2.5

The Game

Blake Snell:

I know how good they are and I know how I've done against them in the past and I knew what I needed to do today. Definitely happy with how I pitched today.

Houston at home, All-Star Break to August 13: 7-4

August 14-since, Houston, at Minue Maid Park: 2-9. 

Houston has lost six straight games at home. Last 11 games at home:

Yainer Diaz: .395/.409/.698

Alex Bregman: .333/.429/.500

Mauricio Dubon: .321/.345/.536

Yordan Alvarez: .296/.474/.296

Jeremy Pena: .282/.333/.410

Jose Altuve: .237/.275/.263

Chas McCormick: .222/.243/.389

Jose Abreu: .167/.250/.444

Martin Maldonado: .160/.160/.320

Kyle Tucker: .156/.194/.281

Yordan, Altuve, and Tucker have combined for three extra-base hits in their last 11 home games. 

*Houston Astros, Away, 2023: .268/.339/.462, 118 home runs.

Houston Astros, Home, 2023: .251/.325/.407, 78 home runs.

*Astros home runs at Balch Springs, September 4-6, 2023: 16

Astros home runs at Minute Maid, August 1-present: 16

*Chandler Rome: What's up with the home record? The batter's eye may be to blame.

*Kyle Tucker was 0x4. Since his 3HR game on July 21, Tucker: .253/.359/.474. He has one home run in his last 73 PAs, last night was his 10th straight game without a home run, and six straight without an extra-base hit. 

*Hunter Brown: 4.1IP, 6H/6ER, 5K:2BB. Outs recorded, starts, 2023:

6: 1

8: 1

9: 1

12: 2

13: 3

14: 3

15: 1

16: 1

17: 2

18: 7

21: 5

So that's 12 starts of 15 outs or fewer (and each of his last five starts) and 15 starts of 16 outs or more. Maldonado:

I think he threw a couple good innings. I feel like maybe he was rushing a little bit with men on base, trying to be quicker to the plate. I feel like that's when he lost kind of the strike zone. A couple unlucky hits that they got, especially in the second inning.

Expected Batting Average, base hits, Padres, 2nd Inning:

Machado: .600 (109.1mph single)

Campusano: .960 (91.2mph single)

Grisham: .460 (61.5mph single)

Kim: .170 (79.5mph single)

Brown:

Obviously, it's really frustrating. I thought I made some good pitches there...To Grisham, I thought I made a pretty good pitch. It was probably two inches away from falling in Pena's glove. I think all that kind of stuff compounded and they were able to put four runs up.

Other Stuff

*[A locker room office]

DUSTY BAKER: Chas! McCormick! Get your ass in here.

CHAS MCCORMICK: [trots in on the hop] Yeah, skip?

BAKER: If anyone asks, I never said you're fat.

MCCORMICK: Huh?

BAKER: God dang it, kid, I said [stubs out cigar] if anyone asks any questions regarding your weight, it didn't come from me.

MCCORMICK: But you're the first one to even bring this up?

BAKER: GET THE HELL OUT OF MY OFFICE, MCCORMICK

MCCORMICK: [backs out, confused. He slowly turns toward the door]

BAKER: [under his breath] fatass. 

MCCORMICK: [spins around] what?!

BAKER: [screaming] I BRING YOU BANANA PUDDING EVERY WEEK! GET OUT!

*Here's a good article from The Athletic's Cody Stavenhagen, who spent a series embedded with the Mariners. Also: George Kirby is a PAB.

*Adolis Garcia has a strained patellar tendon, and may be out for the season. He's hitting .244/.322/.494 with 34HR/100RBI for the Rangers.

What To Read, September 9

*More than 1,000 people have been killed after an earthquake in Morocco.

*Marcelo Bielsa is making it easy again in Uruguay.

*"Stop Making Sense" is back.

*Texas Monthly: My brief career as a paid pro-Paxton propagandist.

*Ben Kweller is playing through the pain.

What To Watch, September 9

England @ Ukraine: 11am Central

Utah @ Baylor: 11am 

Nebraska @ Colorado: 11am (Fox)

Diamondbacks @ Cubs: 1:20pm 

Texas A&M @ Miami

Mariners @ Rays: 3:05pm

USMNT vs Uzbekistan: 4:30pm (TNT)

SMU @ OU: 5pm

Marlins @ Phillies: 5:05pm

Cardinals @ Reds: 5:40pm

Texas @ Alabama: 6pm

Houston @ Rice: 6pm (NFL Network)

A's @ Rangers: 6:05pm

Padres @ Astros: 6:10pm

*A Musical Selection:

Monday Morning Hot Links

Welcome to the 2019 World Series. The Astros got nine hits, four walks, two hits with runners in scoring position that somehow didn't score any runs, lined their way into outs while the Rays hit shots off the end of their bat that found a hole, left ten men on base, struck out 13 Rays, and lost 2-1. Baseball is a faithless whore. It's Charlie Morton vs. Lance McCullers at 3:07pm today and I'm sure the announcers will focus on Charlie Morton's presence on the 2017 World Series team and all the [waves hands] you know.

Ultimately the Astros had Snell on the ropes (105 pitches in 5IP?) and couldn't get more than Altuve's home run. Tampa has enough Actual Wizards in their bullpen - all flowing hair and weird beards and capes - that they can't let those opportunities go to waste like that. Not that anyone needed this type of #analysis.

George Springer's lineout in the 1st had an expected batting average (xBA) of .700. Kyle Tucker's liner that resulted in a double play in the 4th Inning had an expected batting average of .790. Michael Brantley's groundout in the 5th had an xBA of .540. George Springer's groundout in the 7th had an xBA of .510. Those are the four highest xBAs of the night that didn't actually result in a hit. Extremely 2019 World Series vibes. Chandler Rome noted that, of the 12 balls the Astros hit harder than 93mph off the bat, only five fell for hits. Dusty:

It's disappointing. We hit some balls good. Opportunity's the name of the game. If you keep getting opportunities, sooner or later you're going to come through. If you don't get an opportunity, you don't have a chance. We had a heck of a chance tonight, and they just got away.

Bregman:

We were hitting the ball hard, hitting line drives. We didn't punch out a lot. I thought the at-bats were awesome. We just didn't get that big hit tonight. That's baseball. If we keep putting up those good at-bats, I like our chances.

The Astros allowed two runs and struck out 13 batters, and lost. The only time that's happened in a Houston postseason game prior to last night was Game 5 of the 1986 NLCS ew no stop typing now. Houston is 6-2 in the postseason under that extremely specific criteria. 

*Richard Justice, on the key plays that all somehow went the Rays way.

FanGraphs has the series 64.5-35.5 Rays. FiveThirtyEight has it 67-33 Rays, with a 55-45 nod in Game 2. Tampa is 16-5 in 1-run games, the best such winning percentage in baseball history. The Astros are 4-32, wait, no, they're 10-14.

*Framber was great: 6IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:4BB. He joins Gerrit Cole, Randy Johnson, Dallas Keuchel, Nolan Ryan, and Justin Verlander as the only Astros pitchers in franchise postseason history to throw 6IP, 4H/2ER, with 8K. And, true to Astros fashion, Houston is 6-4 when they get starts like that. Framber:

I feel like this year I've had a chance to really demonstrate the pitcher that I am and that I always have been. I had, in the past, where things could get away from me a little bit in the middle of the game, but I've made adjustments to my game this year...For me, I just feel blessed to have the success that I've had this year.

Framber, 2018-2019: 34 games, 107.2IP, 96H/55ER, 102K:68BB, 4.60 ERA /1.52 WHIP

Framber, 2020 (postseason incl.): 14 games, 88.2IP, 74H/32ER, 93K:34BB, 3.25 ERA /1.22 WHIP

*Jose Altuve put the Astros on the board in the 1st Inning with a solo shot off Blake Snell that proved to be the only Astros run of the game. It's his 16th postseason home run (four behind Yeah Jeets for the most in MLB postseason history by a middle infielder and six more than Chase Utley for the all-time postseason home run mark by a 2B), and he has now hit a home run in three straight postseason games. Petco Park is the 22nd park in which Altuve has hit a home run. All-time multi-hit postseason games:

Yadier Molina: 28

Albert Pujols: 26

Jose Altuve: 21

Altuve's 64 postseason hits are 2nd-most among 2nd Basemen (Roberto Alomar - 72).

*In the regular season, the Astros hit .212/.447/.338 with a full count. With a full count in Game 1:

Springer: 0x2

Altuve: 0x1

Brantley: 0x1

Bregman: 2x2

Correa: 0x0, 2BB

Gurriel, 0x0, BB

*Gurriel: When Yuli Gurriel came up with the bases loaded in the 8th and one out, Tampa's win expectancy was just 51.9%. One pitch later it was 86.7%. From when he started with the Astros through the 2020 Wild Card Series, Gurriel had GIDPd once in 194 postseason PAs. He's done it twice in his last 18 postseason PAs now. 

*Mike Zunino had swung the bat five times on the first pitch in the 2020 regular season. He had hit .125/.250/.375 with two outs in the regular season. He had hit .158 with runners in scoring position all year. He had two hits with runners in scoring position and two outs all year long. I hate this game. Game 1, yes. But also, baseball. 

*Aledmys Diaz's AB in the 5th was Extremely Stupid. John Curtiss had thrown 17 pitches before facing Diaz with runners on 1st and 3rd. Ten of them - including six of the previous seven pitches - were balls. Yet Diaz shot the ball into the ground on the 1st pitch Curtiss threw to ground out and end the inning.

*FanGraphs: With super-subs and unlikely stars, the Rays take Game 1. Jon Tayler:

With this bullpen and modular lineup - and having to face Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton - there are many ways to lose to the Rays and few to beat them. Score early and they'll scratch you to death, bit by bit, as their hitters grind away and seemingly always have the platoon advantage. Fail to score early and you'll be facing the best bullpen in baseball and a team that hasn't lost a single game this year in which it's held a lead after the seventh inning. And even if it all goes right, watch as the likes of Mike Zunino and his 65 wRC+ this season drives in the go-ahead run with a single off your best starter.

*Pedro Gomez: Where did Randy Arozarena come from? Dude takes a knee every AB (from swinging out of his shoes) and nobody gets mad at him.

*McTaggart's Notes column from before Game 1 tells us that Lance is a real good dude.

*CC Sabathia, on the Yankees' ALDS decisions: "What the f--k?"

*Wired: How to block bad websites - or just get things done.

*Check out this bullcrap: The English Football League (everything below the Premier League) have a plan to overhaul English soccer by placing control in the hands of the top Premier League teams. Of course Manchester United (owned by the Glazer family) and Liverpool (owned by the Bastard John Henry) love it.

*The Economist: The Secret Life of a Private Tutor to the Wealthy...which immediately led me to this.

*A Musical Selection:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

Well I hope you enjoyed the Foot Ball. The Sooners sort of Boomer'd - sorry Texsa Fan. So yesterday was a Saturday where there was no playoff baseball, no Premier League, and only COVIDball. What a terrible time to be alive. 1st Pitch is at 6:37pm Central on TBS. Some notes in advance of Game 1:

*All-Time on October 11, the Astros are 2-3 (but are 2-0 since starting 0-3!) 

All-Time franchise LCS Game 1 record: 2-3

*The Game 1 SPs will be Framber Valdez vs. Blake Snell, Game 2 will be Lance McCullers vs. TBA. That's literally the plan. The Rays have changed the game so much that Ten Bloody Armadillos will each get a shot at the Astros' lineup, to maddening success. 

Snell vs. Houston, regular season career: six starts, 2-2, 4.73 ERA / 1.49 WHIP, .264/.350/.512, 31K:16BB.

Snell vs. Houston, postseason career: three appearances (one start, two in relief all in the 2019 ALDS), 5.1IP, 1.69 ERA / 0.75 WHIP, 7K:0BB.

The Rays are 5-4 overall when Snell pitches against the Astros since 2016. FiveThirtyEight has it 53-47 Rays in Game 1. If you click that link you'll find that the Rays have a slight edge in every. single. game. Snell:

It's gonna be a battle for sure, because they don't give in at all. Once they get on you it's like blood in the water. They're a bunch of sharks...It's gonna be a fun little competition.

*MLB.com's Sarah Langs: Key facts and storylines in each LCS.

*Chandler Rome: Dusty Baker is sticking with Yuli Gurriel. Dusty:

Yuli's my first baseman. You're not going to find it on the bench. You're going to find it playing. I'm not a fair-weather coach.

After the double-header with Oakland on August 29, Gurriel was hitting .292/.348/.517 - a very respectable .865 OPS. He "hit" .154/.168/.209 to finish the regular season. Gurriel is 2x23 - both singles - this postseason, but 1K:1BB. He's making contact, just the wrong kind. Gurriel's BABIP in the postseason is .087. So I went back through StatCast to find just how many balls he hit with an expected batting average of over .400 with what actually happened from September 1 through the end of the regular season:

Number of balls hit with an xBA > .400 that resulted in an out: 16

Now, you can't say that every ball you hit with a 40% chance of getting on base will result in getting on base 100% of the time - I realize that. So if we say that maybe eight of those 16 balls should have been hits, that would raise his average from .154 to .242. Again, this is spitballing.

Number of balls hit in the 2020 Postseason with an xBA > .400 that resulted in an out:

Game 1 WC: 1 (.740 xBA)

Game 2 WC: 0

Game 1 ALDS: 1 (.470 xBA)

Game 2 ALDS: 0

Game 3 ALDS: 1 (.410 xBA)

Game 4 ALDS: 0

That's not terribly telling, but it does tell you that instead of being 2x23, maybe he should be 5x23, and .217 is way different than .087. And he's a great defensive 1B. And who else are you going to put over there? And the Cionel Perez robbed Yuli of a BP homer yesterday. Yuli going off tonight.

*Given that there are no off-days from Games 1-7, Dusty said he's probably going to add a pitcher to the roster. Those eligible pitchers are Brandon Bailey, Brandon Bielak, Humberto Castellanos, Chase De Jong, Shawn Dubin, Ralph Garza, Cionel Perez, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. None of them have ever pitched in the postseason before. Hell, only De Jong and Perez had pitched in the Majors before 2020.

*ESPN's David Schoenfield put the Astros 4th in a re-ranking of the remaining teams in the playoffs.

*SI's Emma Baccellieri ranked the theories behind Greinke signaling pitches based on their audacity.

*James Click, on facing the Rays:

On a scale of Zero to Weird, it's going to be Weird.

*Peter Gammons pointed out that in February fans in Port St. Lucie booed Michael Brantley, who was not on the 2017 team, and did not boo J.D. Davis and Jake Marisnick, who were. People are stupid. I mean, have you ever interacted with any of them? People, I mean. I try to avoid it.

*Joel Sherman dissected the Yankees' decisions in Game 2, and it, uh, wasn't a very rosy outlook on the Yankees as a team.

Aaron Judge, postseason stats:

2017: 57 PAs, .188/.316/.500, 27K:9BB, 4HR

2018: 22 PAs, .421/.500/.947, 3K:3BB, 3HR

2019: 42 PAs, .265/.390/.353, 11K:7BB, 1HR

2020: 35 PAs, .133/.229/.433, 10K:4BB, 3HR

*The Ringer: The (mostly-) true story of Vanilla Ice, hip-hop, and the American dream.

*The people struggling to think clearly months after getting COVID.

*Vice: I work as a butler for the super-rich.

*A Musical Selection:

Friday Morning Hot Links

Happy Friday my friends! No game recap since the Astros were off but the good news is somehow the Orioles managed to play nine innings of baseball and have more run than the opposing Oakland Athletics team. The Astros are now 3.5 up with 5 series and 16 games left to play (ARI, SEA, LAA, TOR, and a 4 game series with BAL).

Speaking of the Diamondbacks-Astros series, here is a Bob Nightengale throwback article floating the idea of this being the 2018 World Series. A quick series preview of this weekend can be found here.

Thursday, September 20th is the last Astros off day of the regular season.

Brian Arbour, fellow member of the Astros County staff, wrote about how the bullpen on this road trip was utilized and what it may mean for September.

Preston Tucker, Jack Mayfield, and Drew Ferguson all went yard to help Fresno win Game 2 of the PCL Championship. Game 3 is tonight with the series at 1-1.

You can purchase a ticket to the Astros @ Orioles game Thursday, September 27th for $3.

Jess Kleinschmidt attempts to stare into the souls of every Astros player during their stares.

The Astros pitching staff is returning to form again. Watch out.

The Astros: 2013 vs. 2018.

Once again, pitchers acquired by the Astros are amazing. MK Bower talks just how amazing Pressly and Osuna have been and how they got this way.

The Astros have promoted Brandon Taubman to Assistant General Manager.

Some Astros crashed Joe Smith's private charity event for a good cause.

The folks on SI Now predict who wins the 7 game series between Boston and Houston.

Monday is the fifth World Series ring giveaway of the season. I still need one just floating it out there.

David Wright is giving it one last go September 29th.

Blake Snell is nails in 2018.

Domino's may have offered to give away too many free pizzas.

On This Day in Baseball History

In 1951, Bob Nieman became the first player in history to hit two consecutive home runs in his first two Major League at-bats.

In 1969, the Orioles clinched their first AL East title in their history.

In 1986, Bo Jackson hit his first Major League home run.

Also in 1986, Giants third baseman Bob Brenly committed four errors in one inning and hit two home runs, one of which was the walkoff.

In 1990, Ken Griffey and Ken Griffey Jr. became the first father-son duo to hit home runs in the same game.

In 1994, MLB team owners voted to cancel the MLB playoffs, becoming the first time a major professional sport cancelled its postseason.

In 1999, the Astros set a club record with its 12th straight win. Shane Reynolds got the win.

In 2003, Vladimir Guerrero hit for the cycle.

In 2005, Roger Clemens pitched hours after his mother passed away from emphysema complications. The Astros went on to win the game 10-2.

In 2014, Jonathan Papelbon was ejected after blowing the save and giving the home crowd the 'ol crotch grab.

Monday Morning Hot Links

Tropicana Field is stupid and no one should ever play there. Not even the Rays, who should be relocated to Nashville or Portland or Montreal or Mexico City. The Astros lost three of four against the Rays and four of seven in the season series. Sure hope the Astros don't catch them in the playoffs. Houston is 55-31, and 16 of those losses have been by one run.

*A.J. Hinch:
We didn't do enough to win the game or win the series. We made some mental errors, we had some big moments that they executed some pitches. One-run games, a couple of losses this series, are tough to swallow. We'll take it to the next city, but this one sucks.

Indeed.

*Houston had the bases loaded with one out in the 8th. Altuve struck out on a 10-pitch PA and Gurriel grounded out to end the inning.

*Houston has scored two or fewer runs in four straight games, breaking the previous season-high of three games from April 30-May 2.

*Charlie F. Morton threw a deliciously symmetrical 6.2IP, 6H/2ER, with 11K:2BB and most definitely did not deserve to lose. Both runs were actually allowed by Chris Devenski. It was his second straight double-digit strikeout game for the first time in his career. Morton has struck out 24 of the last 54 batters he has faced. Morton threw a first-pitch strike to 21 of the 28 batters he faced yesterday.

*Mallex Smith hit what proved to be the game-winning home run. It was his first home run since tagging Yu Darvish on July 21, 2017.

*Blake Snell is a legit starting pitcher. In two starts against Houston this year he's thrown 14.1IP, 7H/2ER, 16K:8BB. He walked seven batters in his start last weekend. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts.

*The Astros got five hits. It's the 17th time this season that Houston has recorded five or fewer hits. They're 4-13 in those games. They went 0x14 w/RISP in the series.

*Evan Gattis got two solo home runs to account for all the scoring. It was Gattis' 3rd 2HR game of the season, the 11th such game of his career. All seven runs the Astros scored in this series were via homer.

*Josh Reddick hesitated on throwing a ball into the infield to protect a 1-0 lead. Reddick:
I just kind of froze. There's no excuse for screwing that up. I've got to get the ball in, and even if I throw it home early, we're still playing the ball game right now.

*Cionel Perez was optioned back to Corpus without having thrown a pitch, but I guess he got to sleep in a nice hotel in Tampa. Why? With Springer nursing a back injury, the Astros decided to keep A.J. Reed.

Common Opponents with the Mariners:

Anaheim: Houston 3-3, Seattle 4-2

Arlington: Houston 10-4, Seattle 5-4

Baltimore: Houston 3-0, Seattle 4-0

Boston: Houston: 2-2, Seattle 3-4

Chicago WS: Houston 3-0, Seattle 2-1

Cleveland: Houston 4-3, Seattle 5-2

Kansas City: Houston 5-1, Seattle 5-1

Minnesota: Houston 1-2, Seattle 5-1

New York: Houston 2-5, Seattle 0-3

Oakland: Houston 8-1, Seattle 6-3

San Francisco: Houston 2-0, Seattle 1-1

Tampa Bay: Houston 3-4, Seattle 5-1

Toronto: Houston 2-1, Seattle 2-1

The Mariners won another one-run game. 26 of their 54 wins have been by one run. This is extremely stupid.

Off-Day Playoff Odds Watch:

Projected Record:
FanGraphs: 103-59
FiveThirtyEight: 103-59
Baseball Prospectus: 101-51

% to win AL West:
FanGraphs: 95.2%
FiveThirtyEight: 82%
Baseball Prospectus: 89.7%

% to win World Series:
FanGraphs: 24.5%
FiveThirtyEight: 23%
Baseball Prospectus: 16.5%

*Josh James threw 5IP, 1H/3ER, 12K:4BB in a hard-luck loss to Sacramento. Fresno out-hit Sacramento 10-3, yet lost 3-1. Myles Straw was 4x5 with a stolen base, his 44th of 2018.

*Andy Pineda, a 21-year old CF who has been in the Astros' system since 2014, playing in his 6th game of 2018 and his 2nd above Tri-City, hit two home runs for Corpus in a 5-2 win.

*Seth Beer was 4x5 with an RBI in a 3-2 Quad Cities win over Kane County. He has seven multi-hit games in his 15 career pro games.

*Here's a great piece from Jesse Sanchez on the five ways MLB teams get international talent.

*Jon Heyman writes that the price tag on Padres' lefty reliever Brad Hand is going up.

*SI's Lee Jenkins: How Lebron ended up in LA.