Melancon didn't throw anyone under the bus

I know he's not an Astro anymore, but in an interview with Sean McAdam, Melancon reflected on the atmosphere surrounding the 2011 Astros:

"When you lose over 100 games, it's (a) struggle. It's not necessarily fun to lose like that. Everybody gave it 100 percent, but you show up to the ballpark and you've lost six in a row, it's tough."

Good to know that, even in the face of a 106-loss season, everyone in the clubhouse was able to keep their cliches intact.

The Astros offense and making adjustments

So here's a random, thrown-together post about the Astros and the adjustments they were able to make. Let's get started. Maybe by the end, this post will have a point, and we'll take the pitchers tomorrow.

We'll begin with the team record. Against teams in which the Astros played more than one series...

Combined record of 1st series of season: 16-33 (.327)
Combined record of 2nd series of season: 19-34 (.358)
Combined record of 3rd+ series of season: 21-39 (.350)

The Astros offense, vs. SP for 1st PA: .252/.299/.368
The Astros offense, vs. SP for 2nd PA: .247/.298/.365
The Astros offense, vs. SP for 3rd PA: .274/.324/.401
The Astros offense, vs. SP for 4th+ PA: .291/.333/.465

The Astros offense, vs. RP for 1st PA: .254/.316/.358

Some notable splits:

Jose Altuve vs. SP for 1st PA: .125/.157/.229
Jose Altuve vs. SP for 2nd PA: .435/.480/.543
Jose Altuve vs. SP for 3rd PA: .273/.289/.364

Clint Barmes vs. SP for 1st PA: .255/.336/.406
Clint Barmes vs. SP for 2nd PA: .305/.362/.486
Clint Barmes vs. SP for 3rd PA: .218/.299/.372

Carlos Lee vs. SP for 1st PA: .265/.338/.456
Carlos Lee vs. SP for 2nd PA: .269/.327/.381
Carlos Lee vs. SP for 3rd PA: .311/.348/.545

J.D. Martinez vs. SP for 1st PA: .306/.327/.490
J.D. Martinez vs. SP for 2nd PA: .404/.412/.660
J.D. Martinez vs. SP for 3rd PA: .132/.250/.184

Angel Sanchez vs. SP for 1st PA: .221/.284/.265
Angel Sanchez vs. SP for 2nd PA: .190/.238/.190
Angel Sanchez vs. SP for 3rd PA: .302/.362/.340

What's the point? You tell me. By the time the 3rd PA against a starting pitcher came around, the Astros were out of it for all intents and purposes (that's not being snarky, it just means that with a 56-106 record, and only 26 comeback wins, it's a logical assumption). Still, the dropoff from Martinez' 2nd to 3rd PAs is wild, as is the bump from Altuve's 1st PA to 2nd PA. Someone's making adjustments, and others just...aren't.

Remembering the predictions

Let's go back and check on those predictions from Spring Training:

ESPN's Steve Berthiaume:
The Houston Astros will win the NL Central in 2011. I'm calling it right now -- Astros '11 division champs.

Larry Carney (ABC):
Brett Myers, J.A. Happ & Wandy Rodriguez are three great starters. The Houston bullpen looks strong. Brandon Lyon settled into the closer role late last year. Houston's offense is weak, but so was the Padres lineup last year when you take out Adrian Gonzalez. Houston's offense will be good enough to win some games, like they did over the last two months of 2010. The Padres didn't make the playoffs. And Houston doesn't have enough to beat Cincinnati, but the Astros will be relevant in September.

Big League Stew:
Am I nuts for thinking I'd rather have the Pirates' roster than the Astros' right now? Houston probably has it over Pittsburgh in starting pitching.

Scott Miller (CBS):
5th: If Biggio, Bagwell, Berkman and Oswalt can ... wait a sec. Who the hell ARE these Astros?

Hardball Talk:
This season brings 90 losses for the first time since 2000 and a close-shave fifth place finish over the sixth-place Pirates at the bottom of the National League Central.

FanGraphs:
The best-case scenario has Houston finishing fourth in the division, as they did in 2010. If the Astros hit some bad luck, there is a good chance they finish last in the division and maybe the league.

FanGraphs' FAN projections:
60-102

Baseball Prospectus:
67-95

Alex Remington (Yahoo):
The Astros don't have a single player as good as Pirate center fielder Andrew McCutchen, and they might not have anyone as good as third baseman Pedro Alvarez, either. After years of Pirate dominance of the NL Central cellar, the race for the bottom might finally be competitive in 2011. I'm predicting a 64-98 record.

The Constable, on Berkman:
I said that Berkman was going to have a great year, for three reasons:

1. He's healthy for the first time in a while.
2. He'll be playing on a team that will contend for the postseason.
3. He's going to want to stick it to the Astros...

...Get ready, because I think Berkman is going to go off this year.

The Constable, on 2011:
They should be better offensively with Hall and Barmes over what the Astros were working with in Tommy Manzella, and even with a career year from Jeff Keppinger, and while Carlos Lee isn’t likely to get any MVP votes in 2011, he’s simply not a .250 hitter…yet. So I think they can put up a fight, and I don’t buy into the 100-loss predictions....77-85, 4th place

Oof.

A knee-jerk reaction to game 162

I imagine that I was like most baseball fans last night. Having convinced my spouse that what happened during Game 162 - for four different teams - was going to top whatever the playoffs could throw at us, I frantically flipped between the Yankees/Rays, Red Sox/Orioles, Braves/Phillies, and Astros/Cardinals.

Predictably, I spent a little more time on the Astros game, just to see their demeanor - to see if they would be able to get up for the last game of the season, show some emotion, knock the Cardinals at least into Game 163, and generally have respect for themselves.

I had to go to the Red Sox/Orioles game to find all of that. As the Orioles battled the Red Sox, and the rain, it was clear that they were dialed in to their opponent, and were going to make the Red Sox earn at least a play-in game. The Astros were down five runs before coming to bat. Brett Myers was nibbled to death by ducks, the defense looked like a JV team, and the offense...well, the offense did exactly nothing.

Even allowing for the fact that the Cardinals were throwing Carpenter (who had a 16IP, 10H/2ER, 19K:2BB line against the Astros in 2011), the Astros managed two hits. The Cardinals had two hits before Myers adjusted his jock for the first time of the game.

And then Myers comes up to bat...and decides to hit left-handed. Maybe I'm taking this too seriously, too personally, but there was absolutely no reason for that to take place. Sure, he was a .161 hitter coming into that AB, but to say, "You know what? We're already down by 61 runs, it's the last game of the season, I think I'll turn around and try it with my left hand on top this time" is an absolute joke.

The Rays were down seven runs, kept fighting, and will now be playing in October. The Astros didn't even look like they wanted to be there, and they played like they had already left the stadium.

Forget the Rays as a model franchise for a second (and do you really think Andrew Friedman would want to leave that to come to Houston?), how about the Orioles as a franchise?



That celebration is for a team that just avoided it's 94th loss. What I'll remember from the 2011 season isn't the 106 losses (well, I'll remember that, too). I'll remember about how the Astros had a chance to look like they gave a crap, and then threw that away.

They Are Our Astros.

Gene Collier has jokes!

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Gene Collier had, actually, a pretty good line about the Astros in today's column:

Somehow, at least for the moment, even this team's real problems aren't problems, really. You'd think it would be an issue when the worst team in baseball, a sorry Houston Astros edition that will soon need the Hubble Space Telescope to locate fifth place, still puts a lineup on the field that has six more home runs than Clint Hurdle's.

That's pretty good.

BREAKING: Live Shot of Minute Maid Park

This just about sums it up, no?

Your 44-game comparison: 2011 to 2010

So the Astros matched their 2010 record after 44 games at 15-29. Want a comparison? Me neither. But still:

Year	Record	Avg/OBP/SLG	K:BB	XBH-RBI
2011	15-29	.256/.312/.375	332:115	118-164
2010	15-29	.227/.274/.323	266:86	85-128

Pitchers

Year	IP	ERA/WHIP	K:BB
2011	375.2	4.89/1.51	297:149
2010	388	4.15/1.41	322:150

Opening Day 2011 roster

So this is who the Astros will send out on Friday:

Catchers
Humberto Quintero
J.R. Towles

Infielders
Brett Wallace
Bill Hall
Angel Sanchez
Chris Johnson
Matt Downs
Joe Inglett

Outfielders
Carlos Lee
Michael Bourn
Hunter Pence
Jason Michaels
Jason Bourgeois

Rotation
Brett Myers
Wandy Rodriguez
J.A. Happ
Bud Norris
Nelson Figueroa

Bullpen
Fernando Abad
Enerio Del Rosario
Jeff Fulchino
Brandon Lyon
Wilton Lopez
Mark Melancon
Aneury Rodriguez

To the Meat Wagon
Alberto Arias (shoulder)
Clint Barmes (hand)
Jason Castro (knee)
Jeff Keppinger (foot)

Boom - The Constable's first actual post at the Chronicle

So The Constable has his first post up at the Chronicle, on attendance in 2011.

Payroll: $80m-ish

Brian McTaggart has your payroll estimate for 2011. Carlos Lee will account for 23.75% of the Astros payroll. /tears up

Astros preview, via Brewers blog

Bernies's Crew, one of our favorite Brewers blogs, posted their 2011 Astros preview, and it's in-depth, and well worth a read.

Here's your closing shot:
I'll say this: their offense features four wild cards in Carlos Lee, Bill Hall, Clint Barmes, and Brett Wallace. Their pitching staff does not look strong on paper, but could surprise some people during the actual games; how does a 30-50 run improvement on offense and 20 run improvement on pitching/defense sound? We'll say the club looks like a 651 RS / 709 RA team -- better than 2010, but they'll have to rely on their efficiency once again to surprise their opponents.

ESPN has jokes

It's not even Christmas, and ESPN is already running (Insider-Only) articles about how the Astros might as well not even bother in 2011.

You see, it's a ZiPS projection of the NL Central, and they only take into account the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds.

But not without some snark:
Houston has so many holes that they should start selling Astros-imprinted colanders.

Oh you like winning do you? Don't get used to it.

So says Baseball Prospectus (Insider Only):

Assuming that Ed Wade cannot make a huge splash in what will be a fairly thin free-agent market, further rebuilding efforts will have to come from within, and there's just not enough talent on hand to make it work. If its good luck fades, Houston's 2011 will more closely resemble the first two months of 2010 than the last four.

Astros, Myers working on 2011 contract

Richard Justice is tweeting that the Astros and Brett Myers are working on that 2011 deal:

Astros "working" on getting Brett Myers under contract for 2011. Making $3.1M and has $8M mutual option for 2011.

Update: Bernardo Fallas confirms the Astros are working on a multi-year deal with Myers.

2011 Payroll

Here's who we have on the hook for money in 2011:

Carlos Lee: $19m
Roy Oswalt: $9m
Brett Myers: $8m (mutual option, or $2m buyout)
Brandon Lyon: $5.25m
Lance Berkman: $2m (we'll just go ahead and assume they're buying him out, if they don't trade him first)

1st Year of Arbitration:
Felipe Paulino

2nd Year of Arbitration:
Hunter Pence
Michael Bourn
Matt Lindstrom
Jeff Keppinger
Chris Sampson

3rd Year of Arbitration:
Wandy Rodriguez
Humberto Quintero

4th Year of Arbitration:
Tim Byrdak

So before we get into arbitration, the Astros are on the hook for $43.25m. That's assuming Myers stays next year and the Astros buy out Berkman.

Now, the arbitration eligible players are making a combined $17.255m this year. Let's say the increase is 50% across the board (which is an incredibly roundabout number), the Astros would be on the hook for a total payroll of $69.1m. That doesn't include Happ, Wright, Fulchino, Arias, Norris, Castro, Johnson, Lopez, Manzella, Sanchez, Bogusevic, Wallace, or Bourgeois - all of whom should come in under $500,000 for the year.

Further evidence Koby Clemens is moving on up

Here's a long article on Koby Clemens from Sports Illustrated. A lot of it is information of which we were already aware, but Ricky Bennett says:

"If he continues to work, he's going to play in the big leagues. And he's got a chance to be a real good major league player."

Clemens:
"It's just that sometimes I have been caught up in stuff like that, worrying about what can happen or expecting things to happen and then they don't and it put me in a tailspin. Last season was a perfect example of how I just worried about things I could control and took advantage of my opportunities. That's the same approach I'm taking now. Whatever happens up there, happens. When it's time for me to get called up and moved into the big leagues, it'll be the right time for me."

So the article says he could go into the Spring in pencil as 1B1. Depending on what the Astros get for Roy, that could change, but it's still an interesting time for Koby.