Sunday, May 21, 2017

Door Number 1, Door Number 2, Door Number 3

Let's play a little game. You choose which Door you want. Click the comments to see which adventure you chose.

Door #1

28-year old LHP. Under team control through 2018 with team options in 2019 and 2020. Career 20.9 WAR through 160 starts. Career 3.44 ERA / 1.24 WHIP. Career 3.49 FIP. 3.11 K:BB ratio. 38.4% Groundball rate in 2017, down from 40.4% in 2016, which was in turn down from 47.1% in 2015. Three straight seasons of 4.8+ fWAR. 24 walks through 57.1IP in 2017. Career 20.0% K-rate, 6.4% BB-rate. 7th in pitcher fWAR since the beginning of the 2013 season.

Door #2

28-year old RHP. Under team control through 2019 with team options in 2020 and 2021. Career 11.0 bWAR through 135 starts. Career 3.53 ERA / 1.20 WHIP. Career 3.46 FIP. 2.95 K:BB ratio. 46.3% Groundball rate in 2017, down from 47.8% in 2016. 5.2 fWAR in 2015, 3.1 fWAR in 2016. Career 25.1% K-rate, 8.1% BB-rate. Currently posting a career-high 36.6% Hard-Hit Rate. 18th in pitcher fWAR since the beginning of the 2013 season (Dallas Keuchel is 17th).

Door #3

26-year old RHP. Under team control through 2019. Career 11.2 bWAR through 103 starts. Career 3.20 ERA / 1.19 WHIP. Career 3.03 FIP. 3.68 K:BB ratio. Career 48.2% Groundball rate, 50.3% in 2017 - his Major-League best. 12.5% HR/FB rate in 2017, up from 6.8% in 2016. One career season over 2.5 fWAR. Currently has a 22.2% K-rate, 5.3% BB-rate. 20th in pitcher fWAR since the beginning of the 2013 season.

Which door do you give up 5-6 prospects to go through?


Astros County said...

Door #1: Jose Quintana
Door #2: Chris Archer
Door #3: Gerrit Cole

MoleBoy said...

Door #1
Door #3
Door #2

In that order. But I don't think I would be upset with any of those doors.

Anonymous said...

Very interesting question. I would take Door 1 because of fWar and my preference for a lefty.

That being said I would love to get Gerriit Cole if the price were right. Our starters outside of 1-2 have about a 4.8 ERA I would guess.

Great blog man!

Anonymous said...

Door #2. Archer is as good as the others and is signed to a ridiculously cheap, long term contract.

ABlindHog said...

I would not offer 5-6 prospects for any of those.
for door #3 I would offer:
1 of Martes, Tucker, or Whitley.
1 of Paulino, F Perez, Fischer, or Fiers.
1 of Reed, Hernandez, Cameron, Dawson, or Kemp.
1 short season PTBNL, their choice after 5 players are protected.

Wallee Wright said...

I don't understand why everyone seems to think we need a long term, number one or two slot, solution. Our issues are in the four and five slots and a short-term rental will cost us, maybe, one or two mid-range prospects. I say nix to all three doors.

Chris Cupp said...

I think the team is geared up to be good for years to come. I grew up watching baseball in the 90s, and I remember the Braves. They were a great team for a long time, but somehow they only won one world series title. I think you try to win the series as best you can. We should (baring injury) have a good team core to bring in supplements with for at least 5 years....and thats without counting on anyone from the next couple of drafts. So, if you have a chance to increase your odds of getting to that world series title, take it.

I'd take Quintana