Friday, December 13, 2013

ZiPS suggests 8yrs/$64m for Springer

Dan Szymborski has a (pretty accurate) forecasting model called ZiPS, which you can find on FanGraphs, ESPN, etc.

Anyway, here's an interesting tweet from Szymborski

Any takers willing to make that deal now?

9 comments:

Rob McDonald said...

No way.

Anonymous said...

It's not "No Way." It just way too soon to consider throwing money at someone who hasn't even accumulated one single Major League at bat. He's a legend, but only amongst a desperate fan base begging for something to cheer for..

Anonymous said...

He's already going to be under team control until he's 32 so I wouldn't sweat offering a long term deal just yet

Anonymous said...

But if you wait for him to use up "team control" and he puts up 30-30 seasons, that 8/64 will jump to 10/300! You can lock him up now for 8 million a year instead of 30 million a year in 5 years, I take it now. Of course, his agent would be a joke if they let him take that deal now. And although he hasn't played a game and we are a desperate fan base, 8 million a year is what they are paying average players these days. I suspect, even if he isn't the next 30-30 perennial player, he will at least hit with some pop, speed and a decent average.

Anonymous said...

Last Ananonymous:

Those are large assumptions for $8 million/year. I don't know, maybe it's because I'm not a huge risk taker, but I would wait for a year or 2, then offer a contract based on past performance and future projections. I wouldn't pull the trigger now. Might cost me more down the road, but it would be worth it to have a better guess at what Springer might have as a ball player. Just my 2 cents.

OremLK said...

No, but I'd do something like $48M over 8.

Anonymous said...

The zips takes into account the fact that he hasn't played yet. If you wait a year and he posts a 3 WAR as a rookie then the new numbers go to 8/100 and so on. These are like Las Vegas figures and they change with every change in the marketplace, the marketplace being Springer's projected worth based on educated guesses and current like salaries.1oldpro

Rob McDonald said...

How many no-miss prospects went on to do nothing. Guy isn't even in Houston yet.

Anonymous said...

Totally off topic, reading your "Courting Carlos Beltran" tab up above, I finally noticed that Hunsicker left right in the middle of the negotiations. Maybe Beltran changed his mind at that point - follow the smart ones. Who knows - he might have been more clued in than the rest of us. He sure got booed a lot for his decision.