Tuesday, March 9, 2010

A gander at April

Rob Neyer posted an article this morning about how much it sucks to be the Orioles with a "balanced schedule" in the AL East. So that got me wondering about the Astros' schedule.

There has been a lot of talk about how the Astros need to start fast this year, and try not to get 10GB by the end of May, which is valid. But how does the schedule set that up?

Let's just take a look at April, for now.

Home series: San Francisco, Philadelphia, Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati.
Away series: @St. Louis, @Chicago

15 of the Astros' first 21 games are at home, and using CHONE's starting lineup projections, 12 of those first 21 games are against teams projected to finish under .500. (Of course, the Astros are projected to go 72-90, so that should be taken into consideration.)

These 21 games also feature teams the Astros went a combined 37-47 against in 2009. That's good enough for a .440 Win%, but the Astros had a .543 Win% at home, too. So if we split the difference, that's in the 10-11/11-10 range for April. With that kind of schedule to open April, obviously there are some road games coming up, and in May the Astros will play 17 road games (counting an April 30 game at Atlanta. Which I will attend.) and 12 home games. The Astros need to make some hay while the sun shines.

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