Monday, February 8, 2010

Things We Knew, Volume 421

FanGraphs has a new piece on Houston's management issues. The money quote:

Between these five players (Pedro Feliz, Brandon Lyon, Jason Michaels, Brett Myers, and Cory Sullivan), the Astros brought in only a projected 4.5 wins over the course of this deal, according to CHONE, and that’s assuming that Lyon maintains his projected .7 WAR production over the entire course of his three-year contract. Yes, in a market where the dollar value for wins essentially bottomed out, Ed Wade and Drayton McLane spent approximately 5.5 million dollars per win.

That’s without even accounting for the fact that the Astros are at a very low point on the win curve. With Drayton McLane attempting to sell the team, the Astros low on the win curve and desperately needing some talented draft picks and international talent to infuse in the system, the Astros spent 25 million on a minimal upgrade. These are the kind of management gaffes that lead to extended periods of mediocrity. The Astros need change, and they need it fast.

It's fair to point out the Astros spent $25m on five free agents. But Lyon wrapped up $15m of that, and the Michaels hardly qualifies as a free agent. So blast the Lyon deal if you like (and take a number), but be sure to note that of the five free agents, three of them figure to be major pieces of this "lost season." It's called Holding Down the Fort.


Dave S. said...

This reporter is clearly not up to speed on the value of Wins Above Replacement. In 2009 WARs went for abotu 7.25M a piece. Considering that the market projects to be slightly up this year, that makes the Astros' "minimal upgrades" pretty dang good!

Anonymous said...

Does anybody really care about this WAR crap?? All that matters is what happens on the feild. Project all you want to, it's meaningless to me. I just want the Astros to play ball and make a magical run. michael.

OremLK said...

Dave, the market value this off-season is somewhere between $3-4MM per WAR.