Tuesday, February 9, 2010

CHONE predicts the apocalypse

The annual CHONE projected standings are out, and they say the Astros will go 73-89.

That's not too bad, right? But one game behind the Pirates? With a $90m+ payroll? Apocalypse. If the Astros are behind the Pirates in September, I hope the Mayans screwed up and The Great Revealing is the weekend before the season ends.

(There's a disclaimer, though:
Standings based on current talent estimations and roster depth charts as of 2/05/2010. Team Runs scored and allowed projections are not available. Depth charts used to create these are not available, and are probably not very reliable. It is difficult for one person to have a sense of what playing time allocations will be decided by 30 managers. See the starting lineup based forecasts for a verifiable, open source team projection method. )


OremLK said...

I think CHONE is selling us short by about 2-4 wins on defense alone. Look at their projections for Bourn, Pence, and Manzella: -1 runs (Bourn), +1 runs (Pence), -10 runs (Manzella).

I don't even find these plausible, let alone likely. I think Bourn and Manzella will each be at least a win better than that, and Pence at least half a win better.

Their other projections are more plausible, but I still think them pessimistic. I'd tend to agree with PECOTA's projection (76 wins) more.

The Constable. said...