Sunday, January 10, 2010

Harsh math from Beyond the Boxscore

Satchel Price's brutally-titled post "Ed Wade is Not a Good GM" makes the following calculations with the signings of Lyon, Myers, Feliz, Moehler, Blum, and Michaels:

That's $29.3M guaranteed to six players, and $19.3M committed to the 2010 payroll.

CHONE projects Lyon (0.8 WAR), Myers (1.0 WAR), Moehler (0.6 WAR), Feliz (2.0 WAR), Blum (0.4 WAR), and Michaels (-0.1 WAR) to be worth about 4.7 wins above replacement in 2010. Even if you assume that Lyon maintains 0.8 WAR performance for three years, that's 6.3 WAR for $29.3M.

In a market where 1 WAR is going for slightly less than $3.5M, Wade has paid $4.65M per win. Factoring in the fact that Houston isn't exactly on the high side of the win spectrum, and you're looking at arguably the worst offseason in baseball.

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