Friday, December 11, 2009

Zach Levine drops math on us on Lyon, Feliz

Levine's new post references the brutal FanGraphs piece on Brandon Lyon, and has a rebuttal:

In looking at the numbers, the BABIP difference that Cameron is discussing didn't seem to be a product of an inordinate drop in line drives, mostly a huge drop in BABIP on ground balls.

His career ratios aren't all that different than the MLB ratios, so I'm not going to say that infield defense is any more vital than usual behind him, but Detroit's certainly helped him last year...

...The Astros have to hope that was some AL jitters or something and not some mistrust of his stuff as the clock struck 30.

Carry that mediocre walk rate, which he'd never had before, and return that BABIP to average, and you've got yourself a very mediocre pitcher for a killer price.

If Lyon is getting more groundballs, with Manzella at short and Matsui/Maysonet at second, it's probably a good thing. But let's keep in mind that playing behind Lyon in Detroit was Adam Everett, so there is going to be a defensive drop-off.


On to Feliz, although we probably shouldn't:

His OPS has declined every year since 2003. 2009 OPS? .694

With Feliz's 35th birthday coming in April, Astros fans have to hope that steady OPS doesn't begin to decline and that he's still got it defensively, though I can't imagine the Astros will lean on him for 158 games like the Phillies did last year.