Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Baseball is a simple game of mathematics, except for the Astros

The Unofficial Scorer posted a blog on how, for the Astros, the sum > parts:

The fact that they've been outscored by 48 runs, which, using the standard "Pythagorean" estimation, should put them at 48-58 through 106 games... The fact that they came into Monday 14th in the league in OPS at catcher and 12th at second base and third base... The fact that they came in 13th in runs per game and tied for 10th in ERA... The fact that three of the six primary starters they used pitched below replacement level... The fact that they're the oldest team in baseball and lost their closer for 41 games and now their best hitter for a couple weeks.

All this on a team whose preseason statistical projection (PECOTA) was a win total in the mid-60s.

So something must have gone right. Michael Bourn and Wandy Rodriguez have been pleasant surprises, as has, to a lesser extent, Miguel Tejada.

But for the second straight year, the numbers don't quite add up, and the whole is definitely greater than the sum of the parts.

This will drive Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law kerrrazzzzy!

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