Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Matchup for G45 - Astros at Reds

Game Three of this series in which the Astros try to avoid getting swept in consecutive series for the first time since June 2008 when they were swept at home by the Yankees and on the road at Baltimore.

This might be the last start we see from Felipe Paulino. Backe is eligible to come off the DL and will be pitching this week. Fulchino has shown himself to be at least reliable in the bullpen - something that Paulino was unable to do (and what we have discussed, at length, was a stupid decision).


Good news for Paulino is that what may have been his finest two outings came against Cincinnati.

Against Cincinnati:


Against Everyone Else:


I did some looking, and last year Roy induced more fly balls than ground balls in 13 of his 32 starts. So far this season, Roy has had more FBs than GBs in five of his ten starts, including each of his last four.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 26x77, .338/.420/.455, 10K:9BB
vs Lefties: 17x47, .362/.455/.596, 12K:7BB

When swinging at the first pitch (17): .467/.500/.933, 4XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (63): .404/.452/.509, 10K:4BB
After First-Pitch Balls (67): .250/.400/.385, 12K:12BB

RISP: 19x41, .463/.542/.561, 9K:6BB
Runners on: 24x64, .375/.467/.484, 14K:9BB
2OwRISP: 11x19, .579/.636/.632, 4K:3BB


How are these Reds doing against Paulino this season?


Bronson Arroyo

Arroyo has made five starts in May. Two were great, one was good, one was alright, and one was really. Bad. He's pitched 31 innings in May, and given up 18 ER, though to be fair, nine of those earned runs were against Milwaukee in one inning on May 6. So take that out, and Arroyo has looked pretty good.

He did pitch against the Astros - and got the win - on April 20 when Geary was going through his turmoil. What happened there?

7IP, 9H/3ER, 2K:0BB, 2HR - to Berkman and Lee, back to back in the 6th - though Astros hitters were 4x7 leading off the inning.

Last three starts:

5/11 @ ARI710/55:010/16123/81
5/17 @SD76/34:46/17119/70
5/22 vCLE85/12:215/9105/61

Arroyo has lowered his ERA from 7.02 to 5.79 in his last two starts.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 30x108, .278/.361/.556, 14K:12BB
vs Lefties: 32x106, .302/.359/.462, 15K:9BB

When swinging at the first pitch (27): .231/.231/.385, 2XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (110): .283/.309/.453, 22K:2BB
After First-Pitch Balls (104): .317/.447/.622, 7K:19BB

RISP: 16x49, .327/.393/.673, 7K:6BB
Runners on: 24x90, .267/.356/.478, 10K:11BB
2OwRISP: 10x26, .385/.484/.769, 4K:5BB

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