It's the finally the start of the off-season, the best time to be an Astros fan because at least we have hope and something to look forward to after another dreadful sea-- sorry, what? They won the World Series? Everything is great and nothing is bad and I can see new colors that I've never seen before and food tastes better and I'm sleeping and my back doesn't hurt as bad now?
I guess that makes all of these Who Should The Astros Go Sign posts kind of irrelevant now, but I'm going to do one any way because what else am I supposed to do until Spring Training?
Everyone who watched more than four innings of Astros baseball this year will tell you that their main weakness was not having a good left-handed reliever. That's probably being generous. Houston's two main LHP out of the bullpen in 2017 were Tony Sipp and Fransisco Liriano which is significantly less than ideal. It's the off-season now and it's time to look at who could fix this gaping hole in the Astros roster.
Except.
The Astros Pitchers Were Already Good Against Lefties
403 pitchers saw at least 50 left-handed batters in 2017. I looked at how they did against hitters they were facing the first time through the order. Do you want to take a guess of how many Astros finished in the top 10 in wOBA allowed?
.
.
.
.
.
Was your answer 3? Then you are either a wizard or a liar, and I am inclined to say liar. Pirates closer Felipe Rivero led the majors in this category because he is left-handed and throws 102 mph so that makes sense. Chris Devenski (5th), Charlie Morton (7th) and Staff Ace Brad Peacock (9th) represent the Astros. For context of how good these guys were, Clayton Kershaw finished 11th.
It would make sense, then, for me to tell you that the Astros were the sixth-best team in baseball at limiting left-handed hitters, allowing a .294 wOBA to just over 1,600 batters faced in 2017.
They aren't broken by any means, but there is always room for improvement.
Who Is Available
There are a few pitchers who actually throw baseballs with their left hand who could be beneficial for the Astros in 2018. Chief among them is a guy who reinvented himself last season with the Kansas City Royals and finished one spot behind Peacock on the aforementioned list, Mike Minor. After struggling as a starter at the beginning of his career in Atlanta, Minor became quite the weapon out of the bullpen for the Royals in 2017, posting a 2.55 ERA in 77.2 IP. The former 7th overall pick should command the most money of any left-handed reliever on the market this off-season.
Tony Watson, he of the one-pitch double plays in the World Series, is also a free agent. He was phenomenal for Pittsburgh in 2014 and 2015, sporting sub-2.00 ERAs both years before struggling in 2016 and 2017. He could certainly be a bounce back candidate.
The Astros could also try to make a splash by trading for a lefty (like Zach Britton) but they would probably have to give up a lot of talent (yeah, but it's Zach Britton) for a volatile position (but it's Zach Britton).
Houston doesn't necessarily need someone who has been a career reliever, as they showed when they traded for Liriano.
Ty Blach has been a top 10 prospect in the Giants system, but he struggled in his first full season in the majors as a starter, enough to lose his spot in the rotation in September. While he had a rough year, Blach was phenomenal when facing a lefty for the first time last season, allowing a .186/.230/.232 slash line to 74 of those batters. Perhaps if he has lost enough shine, the rebuilding Giants could look to sell.
Who Do The Astros Have In Their System
No one. Well, some people, but basically no one.
Cionel Perez was signed for $2 million out of Cuba last December and quickly worked his way to Double-A. The lefty could see action in Houston this year, though it is more likely to be 2019 before he makes an appearance.
Sean Stutzman was signed as a free agent out of Dallas Baptist in 2016. He advanced all the way to Triple-A with a strikeout rate out 9.3 in his minor league career. He's probably not a long-term option, especially considering he is no where near a 40-man spot, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Finally, Houston still has Reymin Guduan. Guduan was disappointing in his 16 major league innings last year, but the flamethrower will get another chance to prove himself at some point in 2018.
Whatever You Do, Don't Look At Josh Hader's Stats
Seriously, don't do it. You'll just be sad.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label Tony Watson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tony Watson. Show all posts
Friday, November 10, 2017
Friday Morning Hot Links
Welcome to your second weekend as reigning World Series champs. What are you doing to make someone else feel badly about their favorite team?
*Brian McTaggart has a rundown of what the Astros need going in to 2018. The biggest flaw? The bullpen, of course. McTaggart's likeliest additions: Mike Minor, Tony Watson, Boone Logan - all lefty relievers.
Mike Minor declined his option with the Royals, so he's a free agent this winter. He had a 2.55 ERA/2.62 FIP to go along with striking out 10.2 batters/9 innings, and he's predominantly a fastball/slider guy who saw his 91.7mph average fastball jump to 94.9mph in 2017.
Tony Watson, he of the National League Champion Dodgers, had more limited success in 2017. Between the Pirates and the Dodgers, Watson posted a 3.38 ERA/4.45 FIP with a 15% HR/FB rate, which doesn't factor in to his abnormally-high .309 BABIP (he had a career .261 BABIP allowed).
Boone Logan's $7m option was declined by the Indians last week thanks to concerns over his shoulder, which limited him to 21IP in 2017.
Minor is going to be the highest-paid of the three, and the other two would automatically get the Charlie Morton treatment from fans (oh wow he wasn't great/was injured now the Astros are going to turn him into a soul-eating machine!) We should be careful with thoughts like those. They're dangerous.
*Here's Jon Heyman's predictions (matched up against an expert's predictions) for the contracts of the Top 80 free agents this offseason.
*Random Astros fact of the day:
Jose Altuve has accumulated 26.2 fWAR in 982 career games, good enough for 10th all-time among batters in franchise history. He's played about 600 fewer games than 9th on the list, Terry Puhl, and is just 0.6 fWAR behind him. Altuve's 7.5 fWAR season ranks 8th among Astros batters all-time, and was just the 11th 7+ fWAR for a batter in franchise history.
*Jose Altuve and George Springer won AL Silver Slugger awards last night. Well, they won them during the season, of course, but come on you know what I mean. It's Altuve's 4th-straight Silver Slugger, and Springer's first.
*Tom Verducci: How the Astros mastered applying their pitching data, with great looks into McHugh, McCullers, Peacock, and Morton.
*Wednesday Jeff Sullivan noted that the Astros were the beneficiaries of the worst called ball of the season. Yesterday he noted that the Astros threw the worst called strike of the season. We should have known all along this was our year.
*Joe Musgrove visited the DeBakey VA Medical Center yesterday in honor of Veterans Day.
*KPRC interviewed Jeff Luhnow yesterday. Luhnow, on what needs to happen this off-season:
...There's not any major surgery here. This team is good enough to go out and repeat just as-is, so we're going to keep working at it, but we're pretty excited about what the prospects are for next year.
*If the Astros sign a player who received a Qualifying Offer, they will forfeit their 3rd-highest pick in the 2018 draft.
*The Paul Wall/Johnny Dang grills are pretty legit.
*Chronicle photographer Karen Warren picked her favorite photos of the season.
*The Astros have the smallest number of minor-league free agents in baseball, with seven.
*So there was a men's only gala (*eyes roll out of head*) at the Museum of Fine Arts, Houston last night and a server bumped into a guy who dropped the World Series trophy. Although, if you're going to damage an artifact, MFA Houston is probably a good place to do it.
*Mike Fiers was inducted into the Nova Southeastern University Hall of Fame last night.
*Brian McTaggart has a rundown of what the Astros need going in to 2018. The biggest flaw? The bullpen, of course. McTaggart's likeliest additions: Mike Minor, Tony Watson, Boone Logan - all lefty relievers.
Mike Minor declined his option with the Royals, so he's a free agent this winter. He had a 2.55 ERA/2.62 FIP to go along with striking out 10.2 batters/9 innings, and he's predominantly a fastball/slider guy who saw his 91.7mph average fastball jump to 94.9mph in 2017.
Tony Watson, he of the National League Champion Dodgers, had more limited success in 2017. Between the Pirates and the Dodgers, Watson posted a 3.38 ERA/4.45 FIP with a 15% HR/FB rate, which doesn't factor in to his abnormally-high .309 BABIP (he had a career .261 BABIP allowed).
Boone Logan's $7m option was declined by the Indians last week thanks to concerns over his shoulder, which limited him to 21IP in 2017.
Minor is going to be the highest-paid of the three, and the other two would automatically get the Charlie Morton treatment from fans (oh wow he wasn't great/was injured now the Astros are going to turn him into a soul-eating machine!) We should be careful with thoughts like those. They're dangerous.
*Here's Jon Heyman's predictions (matched up against an expert's predictions) for the contracts of the Top 80 free agents this offseason.
*Random Astros fact of the day:
Jose Altuve has accumulated 26.2 fWAR in 982 career games, good enough for 10th all-time among batters in franchise history. He's played about 600 fewer games than 9th on the list, Terry Puhl, and is just 0.6 fWAR behind him. Altuve's 7.5 fWAR season ranks 8th among Astros batters all-time, and was just the 11th 7+ fWAR for a batter in franchise history.
*Jose Altuve and George Springer won AL Silver Slugger awards last night. Well, they won them during the season, of course, but come on you know what I mean. It's Altuve's 4th-straight Silver Slugger, and Springer's first.
*Tom Verducci: How the Astros mastered applying their pitching data, with great looks into McHugh, McCullers, Peacock, and Morton.
*Wednesday Jeff Sullivan noted that the Astros were the beneficiaries of the worst called ball of the season. Yesterday he noted that the Astros threw the worst called strike of the season. We should have known all along this was our year.
*Joe Musgrove visited the DeBakey VA Medical Center yesterday in honor of Veterans Day.
*KPRC interviewed Jeff Luhnow yesterday. Luhnow, on what needs to happen this off-season:
...There's not any major surgery here. This team is good enough to go out and repeat just as-is, so we're going to keep working at it, but we're pretty excited about what the prospects are for next year.
*If the Astros sign a player who received a Qualifying Offer, they will forfeit their 3rd-highest pick in the 2018 draft.
*The Paul Wall/Johnny Dang grills are pretty legit.
*Chronicle photographer Karen Warren picked her favorite photos of the season.
*The Astros have the smallest number of minor-league free agents in baseball, with seven.
*So there was a men's only gala (*eyes roll out of head*) at the Museum of Fine Arts, Houston last night and a server bumped into a guy who dropped the World Series trophy. Although, if you're going to damage an artifact, MFA Houston is probably a good place to do it.
*Mike Fiers was inducted into the Nova Southeastern University Hall of Fame last night.
— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) November 10, 2017
Saturday, June 10, 2017
Saturday Morning Hot Links
*Depending on your viewpoint, Brad Peacock either had a rough start or Brad Peacock finally turned back into Brad Peacock. The Angels scored in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, and 8th innings in a 9-4 win over the Astros. Cameron Maybin returned from the DL and had three hits and four steals - the most steals against the Astros since the Blue Jays stole five bases on June 6, 2015.
*There are exactly 100 games remaining on the schedule. The Astros have a 12-game lead on the Angels and Mariners.
Peacock only lasted 3IP, allowing 7H/4ER, 1K:4BB. Frankie Tuesday made his Major-League debut and allowed 4H/4ER, 2K:2BB, WP, HBP in 3.2IP. Tony Sipp needed nine pitches to get the final four outs of the game.
*Hinch:
It was not our night on the mound. It felt like they had someone on base virtually every inning, and they put a lot of pressure on us. We didn't execute the pitches we needed to and they had traffic on the bases all night. There was never really a comfortable inning.
Martes, who was not fazed:
To be in for the first time was good. The plan was for me to go out there and save the bullpen, go three or four innings, and that's what I did. So that gives me a lot of confidence for (the) next time I go out there.
*The Astros had a good shot at tying the game or even taking the lead, but Bregman overran 3rd base and was thrown out to end the 2nd inning. Hinch:
It looked like (Bregman) was late picking up Gary Pettis. Gary was holding him. From every angle, outside of Bregman, who was running away from the ball, you could see that Simmons was going to make the play...When you're behind and working your way back, it was a bad mistake.
*Bregman would later hit a 2-run homer in the 7th. Despite getting a hit in 42 of his 59 appearances, Bregman is hitting .251/.320/.411. In his last ten starts he's hitting .256/.333/.564 with four home runs, 5K:5BB.
*The Astros have hit at least one home run in 17 straight games, one shy of the franchise record set in 2000.
*Charlie Morton began his throwing program, but that doesn't mean he's on track to appear anytime soon. Morton:
From the onset, I don't know if there was really a set timetable. I think it's just based on feedback they're getting from me and feedback I'm getting from my arm. But I feel good. Pleasantly surprised.
*On other injury fronts, Joe Musgrove is ready to start Monday and - on a more concerning side - Dallas Keuchel still has not been made available to the media and, as of pre-game yesterday, Hinch had not even talked to him. Hinch:
He's going to continue his rest and recovery, so there's not a ton more to update. He's not doing anything other than resting and seeing our doctors. The 10-Day DL will be the full 10 days, so there's not going to be a daily update.
Okay, how about any update?
*Brian McCann's last four games: 8x16, 2HR, 2 2B, 2K:0BB.
*Washington Post's Dave Sheinin: It took a lot of losing for the Astros to do this much winning. Luhnow, on "tanking":
I don't like that word, because it suggests you're trying to lose and I can tell you there is nothing further from the truth...Our goal was and always will be to build a championship team and sustain it as long as possible. And the best path to get there was by focusing on young players and using the draft and other means to acquire them. And to do that, we had to trade away some veterans, who frankly weren't helping us win that much, anyway.
*There were 40,786 fans at Minute Maid Park last night, the first 40,000+ attendance game not in a home opener/Opening Day since August 6, 2016 against the Rangers.
*FanRag: How long can the Astros keep winning?
*Beyond the Box Score: Nolan Ryan is the greatest pitcher ever.
*Let's give a shoutout to 19-year old Quad Cities 1B/OF/DH Yordan Alvarez. In his first 23 games of the season (99 PAs), he's hitting .378/.465/.634, with 26K:15BB.
*Possible trade candidate Tony Watson was removed from the Pirates' closer role
*David Price got into it with Evan Drellich and it may affect his tenure in Boston.
*The Cardinals are trying not to fall apart.
*How Friends triggered the downfall of western civilization.
*There are exactly 100 games remaining on the schedule. The Astros have a 12-game lead on the Angels and Mariners.
Peacock only lasted 3IP, allowing 7H/4ER, 1K:4BB. Frankie Tuesday made his Major-League debut and allowed 4H/4ER, 2K:2BB, WP, HBP in 3.2IP. Tony Sipp needed nine pitches to get the final four outs of the game.
*Hinch:
It was not our night on the mound. It felt like they had someone on base virtually every inning, and they put a lot of pressure on us. We didn't execute the pitches we needed to and they had traffic on the bases all night. There was never really a comfortable inning.
Martes, who was not fazed:
To be in for the first time was good. The plan was for me to go out there and save the bullpen, go three or four innings, and that's what I did. So that gives me a lot of confidence for (the) next time I go out there.
*The Astros had a good shot at tying the game or even taking the lead, but Bregman overran 3rd base and was thrown out to end the 2nd inning. Hinch:
It looked like (Bregman) was late picking up Gary Pettis. Gary was holding him. From every angle, outside of Bregman, who was running away from the ball, you could see that Simmons was going to make the play...When you're behind and working your way back, it was a bad mistake.
*Bregman would later hit a 2-run homer in the 7th. Despite getting a hit in 42 of his 59 appearances, Bregman is hitting .251/.320/.411. In his last ten starts he's hitting .256/.333/.564 with four home runs, 5K:5BB.
*The Astros have hit at least one home run in 17 straight games, one shy of the franchise record set in 2000.
*Charlie Morton began his throwing program, but that doesn't mean he's on track to appear anytime soon. Morton:
From the onset, I don't know if there was really a set timetable. I think it's just based on feedback they're getting from me and feedback I'm getting from my arm. But I feel good. Pleasantly surprised.
*On other injury fronts, Joe Musgrove is ready to start Monday and - on a more concerning side - Dallas Keuchel still has not been made available to the media and, as of pre-game yesterday, Hinch had not even talked to him. Hinch:
He's going to continue his rest and recovery, so there's not a ton more to update. He's not doing anything other than resting and seeing our doctors. The 10-Day DL will be the full 10 days, so there's not going to be a daily update.
Okay, how about any update?
*Brian McCann's last four games: 8x16, 2HR, 2 2B, 2K:0BB.
*Washington Post's Dave Sheinin: It took a lot of losing for the Astros to do this much winning. Luhnow, on "tanking":
I don't like that word, because it suggests you're trying to lose and I can tell you there is nothing further from the truth...Our goal was and always will be to build a championship team and sustain it as long as possible. And the best path to get there was by focusing on young players and using the draft and other means to acquire them. And to do that, we had to trade away some veterans, who frankly weren't helping us win that much, anyway.
*There were 40,786 fans at Minute Maid Park last night, the first 40,000+ attendance game not in a home opener/Opening Day since August 6, 2016 against the Rangers.
*FanRag: How long can the Astros keep winning?
*Beyond the Box Score: Nolan Ryan is the greatest pitcher ever.
*Let's give a shoutout to 19-year old Quad Cities 1B/OF/DH Yordan Alvarez. In his first 23 games of the season (99 PAs), he's hitting .378/.465/.634, with 26K:15BB.
*Possible trade candidate Tony Watson was removed from the Pirates' closer role
*David Price got into it with Evan Drellich and it may affect his tenure in Boston.
*The Cardinals are trying not to fall apart.
*How Friends triggered the downfall of western civilization.
Friday, May 19, 2017
Finding A Sipp Upgrade
The have been very few problems with the Astros this season.
One way to know that is true is to look at the record of the Astros, which is
good. But if I did have to pick a weakness for the team, which I do not as I am
not currently employed by them, it would be the lack of a truly good left-handed
reliever.
Finding a good left-handed reliever is not very easy for a
variety of reasons, chief among which are the fact that it is very difficult to
throw a baseball and most of the world’s population does so with their right
arm. There are not many internal options to be found, unless you count Sean Stutzman who is a 23-year-old lefty that was signed as a senior free agent out of DBU. You should probably not count Sean Stutzman. However, there are a few options out there for Luhnow and Co. to choose
from.
Tony Watson:
Rumored this week as a possible trade target, Watson has eight saves
and a 1.62 ERA for the floundering Pirates. He posted sub-2 ERAs in 2014 and
2015, but had a 3.06 ERA last season. Of greater concern, his FIP climbed to
4.37 in 2016 and is all the way up to 4.84 this year. He is posting the lowest
K/9 rate of his career, coupled with the highest BB/9 rate of his career. He
would command a “closer” price and I’m not sure he would be worth it.
Sean Doolittle:
When healthy, Doolittle is one of the better LHPs in the
game. Unfortunately, Doolittle’s beard is longer than almost any stretch of
good health in his career. Doolittle has the sixth-lowest wOBA allowed by any pitcher to LHH in the last three seasons as a reliever, just one point higher than Zach Britton. As an established weapon, he too would command a
hefty price tag.
Donnie Hart:
Unless you are Donnie Hart, you are probably asking
yourself, “Who is Donnie Hart?” In 2016, Hart jumped from Double-A to the
majors for Baltimore to shore up a hole in their bullpen down the stretch. He
was fantastic, posting a 0.49 ERA in 22 games. This season, he has been even
better. He has doubled his strikeout rate, lowered his FIP by a run and a half,
and was just optioned to Triple-A.
His ERA on the surface is much worse, but it
is ballooned by a .442 BABIP that will regress. His groundball rate is well
below his career rate and I expect that will improve as well. If Baltimore is
low enough on him right now to demote him, maybe Luhnow could slip in and find
a diamond in the rough for next to nothing.
Thursday, May 18, 2017
Thursday Morning Hot Links
*The Astros beat the Marlins 3-0 yesterday behind Lance McCullers' tribute to Jose Fernandez, throwing six scoreless innings. The Astros are 29-12 and lead the AL West by eight games (and, lest any Ramgers fans come looking to troll: yes, we know it's May.)
*Hinch, on McCullers' start:
I know it meant a lot for him to pitch on this mound. So it was nice for him to be near his best and use his pitches and be effective. He just did a lot right and he did it with a lot of emotion today. It meant a lot to him.
*McCullers' 1st two road starts: 9.1IP, 15H/10ER, 11K:4BB
McCullers' three road starts since: 19IP, 9H/0ER, 14K:4BB
*McCullers is the first Astros pitcher since Roger Clemens (2005) to throw three straight ER-less road outings.
*Jose Altuve hit two doubles and two triples yesterday against Miami - Jake Kaplan notes it's the first time that's happened in Astros history, and the first time in the Majors since Carl Crawford did it back in 2005. And Altuve never crossed home plate yesterday.
*Speaking of the Rangers, they have won eight straight games against straight trash teams (San Diego, Oakland, Philadelphia) but still, eight straight wins is eight straight wins. They're 8-2 in their last ten games, and have lost a game to the Astros in the standings, who are 9-1 in their last ten.
*Mike Lupica: The Astros are for real
*Richard Justice: Astros are loving life on top
*Jerome Solomon: Astros are providing some championship hope
*Jeff Luhnow still expects Frankie Tuesday to pitch for Houston this season though, what with 19 walks in 19IP, it could be in relief.
I don't know if it's going to be in the rotation or in relief, if it's going to be in September or if he'll be able to come up and fill a need before then. We'll have to wait and see...we're just going to have to be patient with him.
*Still, the need for a starting pitcher is more evident after Mike Fiers' rough start and any impending slumps/injuries. Ken Rosenthal reported Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole could be a possibility for the Astros as the Astros will likely make a push to strengthen their squad and the Pirates' window hurriedly closes. Not only Cole, but lefty reliever Tony Watson could be a potential trade target as the Astros search for a viable option other than Tony Sipp (who has admittedly pitched much better of late).
*Hinch, on McCullers' start:
I know it meant a lot for him to pitch on this mound. So it was nice for him to be near his best and use his pitches and be effective. He just did a lot right and he did it with a lot of emotion today. It meant a lot to him.
*McCullers' 1st two road starts: 9.1IP, 15H/10ER, 11K:4BB
McCullers' three road starts since: 19IP, 9H/0ER, 14K:4BB
*McCullers is the first Astros pitcher since Roger Clemens (2005) to throw three straight ER-less road outings.
*Jose Altuve hit two doubles and two triples yesterday against Miami - Jake Kaplan notes it's the first time that's happened in Astros history, and the first time in the Majors since Carl Crawford did it back in 2005. And Altuve never crossed home plate yesterday.
*Speaking of the Rangers, they have won eight straight games against straight trash teams (San Diego, Oakland, Philadelphia) but still, eight straight wins is eight straight wins. They're 8-2 in their last ten games, and have lost a game to the Astros in the standings, who are 9-1 in their last ten.
*Mike Lupica: The Astros are for real
*Richard Justice: Astros are loving life on top
*Jerome Solomon: Astros are providing some championship hope
*Jeff Luhnow still expects Frankie Tuesday to pitch for Houston this season though, what with 19 walks in 19IP, it could be in relief.
I don't know if it's going to be in the rotation or in relief, if it's going to be in September or if he'll be able to come up and fill a need before then. We'll have to wait and see...we're just going to have to be patient with him.
*Still, the need for a starting pitcher is more evident after Mike Fiers' rough start and any impending slumps/injuries. Ken Rosenthal reported Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole could be a possibility for the Astros as the Astros will likely make a push to strengthen their squad and the Pirates' window hurriedly closes. Not only Cole, but lefty reliever Tony Watson could be a potential trade target as the Astros search for a viable option other than Tony Sipp (who has admittedly pitched much better of late).
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