Some thoughts on Correa, and Mike Trout

The big news of the day is the diagnosis of Carlos Correa's torn thumb ligament, requiring surgery that will keep him out from 6-8 weeks. Hinch:
I knew it wasn't good. He wasn't comfortable. It was different when he slid into home in Atlanta or different when he's been hit with a pitch in the elbow...There was an urgency to get off the field. Then, obviously the worst fear happened. 

Luhnow:
It's certainly easier to handle when he have a big lead, but we certainly don't want to do anything to blow that big lead. The pressure's going to be on everybody to keep winning.

Correa:
It's obviously disappointing, but at the same time I've got to focus now on what I can control, and that's hopefully having a successful surgery and focusing on my rehab and hopefully be back late September so I'll be able to play in the playoffs, at least. 

Hinch:
It's a tough blow. He's a big presence in our lineup...We'll absorb it and have the next man up and continue to play and get him better. We'll welcome him back sometime in September and move on, but there's no doubt that it's a punch in the gut when one of your best players is down for a while.

Correa's injury is similar to Mike Trout's injury that forced him to miss from the beginning of June through the All-Star Break. ESPN's Stephania Bell wrote about Trout's surgery and recovery process, if you want a general guideline of what to expect. Essentially (and again, we know more about Trout's thumb injury than we do Correa's at this point) it's not season-ending for Correa, and it's not power-sapping. When he comes back - before the end of the regular season - Correa should be 100%.

Trout missed 50 days of the season. Andrelton Simmons had a similar issue in 2016 and missed five weeks of the season. Let's say that Correa has surgery on Thursday, July 20. If we put the Trout timeline (with all the caveats that come with doing just that) on Correa then he would come back on September 8.

In the meantime, the Astros are going to fill the hole internally. Marwin has obviously been playing at an All-Star level and will likely see time at SS. The Astros called up Colin Moran, who was hitting .308/.373/.543 for Fresno this season. Moran has played 57 games at 3B, 15 games at 1B and, somehow, four games in the outfield. Moran will likely get most of his PAs while at 3B as the Astros can shift Bregman over to Short, or Marwin, or whatever bridges this precarious 15.5-game lead to the postseason. Bregman, Moran, and Gurriel can all play 3B. It's worth noting that Moran has a respectable .771 OPS against LHPs with a very nice .974 OPS against RHPs. He has 23 Major League plate appearances, so I hope he gets an actual look this time, though the length of Correa's expected recovery time would indicate that he will.

The Astros have a 15.5-game lead (pending tonight's result). Everyone else in the division is at or below .500. This means - if the Astros play .500 for the next 50 games - they wouldn't lose any actual ground because everyone else plays .500. The math is questionable, but I'm not arguing with a 90+ game sample. They're going to the playoffs.

Shut up about Alex Bregman. He's fine.

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

*Seattle. Wow what a dumb game! Lance McCullers was conspicuously inefficient and the bullpen gave up four hits - all four left the yard - in a 9-7 loss. The Astros dropped to 32-2 when scoring at least seven runs in a game. The Astros are 4-1 in extra-inning games. They are 62-31 with a 15.5-game lead over the Mariners. There are 69 games left.

*The Astros were down 1-0, tied 1-1, up 2-1, down 5-2, up 6-5, down 7-6, tied 7-7...and finally down 9-7. They went 2x10 w/RISP and left ten on base. (To be fair, the Mariners also went 2x10 w/RISP).

*Hinch:
They did more at the end to win. We have to give credit where credit is due...It is tough to lose that game. 

And on McCullers:
He didn't really have it tonight to make pitches...The more he tried and the more effort he gave, the worse that his location came...It just wasn't a night where he was making pitches to put guys away. He struggled with that. He looked uncomfortable in the sense with his timing, his delivery and his execution. 

*McCullers went 4.2IP, 6H/5R (4ER), 5K:3BB, HBP, and only threw a first-pitch strike to 13 of the 24 batters he faced. That's somewhat notable for McCullers: after he gets that first-pitch strike (182 plate appearances) he allows a .189/.247/.284 slash line with eight walks. But if he gets behind 1-0 (176 PAs) batters hit .250/.343/.349 with 22 walks.

*McCullers' last two starts: 9IP, 15H/9ER, 8K:5BB.

*Tony Sipp gave up two home runs in the 10th inning, one to lefty Kyle Seager and the other to righty Danny Valencia. Lefties are hitting .211/.286/.439 against Sipp this season. Sipp:
I felt like I threw two good pitches to get ahead, just didn't finish them off. On the slider [Seager] did what he was supposed to do with it. Same with Valencia, he hit it out also. Just got to make better pitches, especially in those situations. 

Yes. Let's start with making better pitches, especially in those situations. But, as Jake Kaplan notes, Seager was a career 1x14 against Sipp...before that go-ahead homer.

*Jose Altuve struck out with the bases loaded to end the 6th, and tipped his cap to reliever Tony Zach. While the Astros have been very good with the bases loaded on the season as a whole:

The #Astros have had 11 PAs with the bases loaded on this homestand and...they haven't gone very well pic.twitter.com/RzrkIOt5k1

— #1 Astros Fan (@AaronHlavaty) July 18, 2017

*Of course the big scare of the night came in the 4th inning when Carlos Correa reinjured his thumb during a swing and a miss. He was still dealing with pain from sliding head-first into a base at Atlanta on July 4:
I was wishing with the [All-Star] break it was just going to go away, but today I felt it really bad...The bat just released itself. I felt a lot of pain and felt like I couldn't go back in there. That's why I started walking to the trainer. 

So 'Litos is going on the DL for a couple of weeks, I would imagine. He'll be re-evaluated today.

*The Astros held a funeral for Carlos Beltran's outfield glove.

*Collin McHugh will throw a bullpen session today and then the Astros will make a determination as to where he'll rejoin the rotation. Hinch:
We want him to re-enter our rotation at some point this weekend, if all goes well with the bullpen. But we'll determine when the day and what's next for him after that session.

*Dallas Keuchel threw 29 of his 45 pitches for strikes in a Corpus win over Frisco last night, throwing 3IP, 2H/0ER, 3K:1BB. Keuchel:
The velocity was actually better than I thought it was going to be. I really believe that I could go in a big league game. It's just a matter of how I bounce back. Tomorrow is going to be the biggest key for sure. 

*According to MLB.com's Jon Morosi the Astros tried "for months" to get Jose Quintana, then says that - if Verlander is traded - Houston or Los Angeles are the likeliest destinations. Maybe the Tigers aren't completely full of crap, as they're now apparently willing to include "some" of the $68m Verlander is owed in order to make a potential trade happen (that can, notably, be canceled by Verlander himself).

*Bob Nightengale says the Astros need Sonny Gray (or a frontline pitcher) the most - given how dominant they've been this season, anything less than a World Series appearance "will be a disappointment." Gray may be more aggressively pursued by the Brewers, who want to counter the Cubs' acquisition of Jose Quintana. Detroit will likely hold on to Michael Fulmer until the offseason, when the bidding is open to the other 29 teams and not limited to playoff contenders. Nightengale predicts two trades:
1) Joe Musgrove, Forrest Whitley, and Teoscar Hernandez to Oakland for Sonny Gray
2) Derek Fisher to Detroit for Justin Wilson.

Would you be disappointed if the Astros didn't win the World Series? Would you be disappointed if the Astros didn't make it to the World Series? My answer would be a couched "it depends on how they played." If the Astros make it to a Game 7 in either the ALCS or World Series and just get handled, that's baseball. (Of course, it's easy to say such things now, in July.) If they get swept, that's a different story altogether. But this is the best team the Astros have ever had. There's no guarantee that 2018 will be better, so you play for the window you have. Right now the window is wide freaking open, and I want the Astros to take advantage of it. I refer you back to this July 27, 2015 post where I advocated for the acquisition of The Bastard Cole Hamels. Trading for a legit starting pitcher is going to hurt, but losing in the playoffs will hurt more.

*Related: Jeff Sullivan says Sonny Gray is back, and he isn't.

*The Marlins have ten teams on reliever David Phelps

*Some asshole scammed a bunch of families from the Sarah's House homeless shelter in Pasadena, saying he'd give them tickets to an Astros game if they gave him their Correa bobbleheads. The Astros hooked them up with tickets and parking to a different game.

*The GCL Astros' 21-year old 1B Jose Benjamin only needed six innings to hit for the cycle. He is hitting .361/.406/.689 in 17 games for the GCL Astros.

*The Blue Jays DFA'd Former Astros Great Lucas Harrell.

*There were 9,736 in attendance last night in Oakland. 

Jed Lowrie out until after the All-Star Break

Well, crap. Jed Lowrie has been diagnosed with a tear in a ligament in his right thumb. This will require surgery, and he'll be out until after the All-Star Break.

Jonathan Villar - not Carlos Correa - has been called up from Fresno to replace him. Lowrie had played in 18 of the Astros' 19 games this season and posted a .300/.432/.567 line. While it's hard to gauge WAR through the first three weeks of the season, it's worth noting that the Astros are losing what has been the 2nd-best shortstop in the Majors (1.1 WAR, behind Jose Iglesias' 1.4 WAR).

So yeah, losing Lowrie is going to be a hill for the Astros to climb.

Draft Day Running Post

So let's just keep all of the relevant links to the draft here in one place, eh?

(Note: All links will now open in a new window, thanks to Snippy Anonymous Commenter)

2:29pm: Kiley McDaniel is reporting that Carlos Rodon's pricetag is firmly $6m+. "Aiken heavy favorite to go 1-1 now."

1:12pm: Jesse Spector lists Craig Biggio as the Astros' best 1st Round pick of all-time.

1:02pm: Not Draft-related, but Keith Law mentioned it in his chat today, and Peter Gammons just tweeted that Mark Appel is dealing with tendinitis in his thumb, which is why he'll get almost two weeks between his starts.

12:15pm: Via Grantland, five things you need to know about the draft

11:45am: Scott Miller has a nice profile on Brady Aiken

*Both MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis have Aiken to the Astros.

*Perfect Game's latest Mock Draft has Aiken to the Astros at 1-1 and the University of Kentucky's 1B/LHP A.J. Reed at 1-37.

Ok 1-1, BUT, remember, the quality of the entire draft class is our gauge. Long live the 9th Rd! Let's bleed some Orange today! Go @astros!
— Morgan Ensberg (@MorganEnsberg) June 5, 2014

9:49am: Yahoo's Jeff Passan breaks down what teams can and cannot do (and exactly what teams ignore) in advance of the draft.

9:00am: MiLB has a 2013 draft retrospective

*Jon Heyman's final mock draft has the Astros taking Brady Aiken at 1-1.

Villar injures thumb

Shortstop Jonathan Villar came out of the game in the 6th inning with a sprained thumb, which he injured getting caught stealing at 3rd base in the 4th.

Porter:
He did it on a slide into third base, so it was sore when we went out to talk to him. We took him out to try to get the soreness under control and treat it. It was already bothering him at that point. 

Villar says it isn't serious. The Astros finish the series with the Red Sox today, and are off on Thursday.

We also read here that J.D. Martinez and his sprained wrist likely won't be back in Houston until September.

Lowrie to DL

So I guess that thumb isn't ready to hold a bat, as the Astros placed him on the DL retroactive to March 29. This means he'll be eligible to come off the DL on April 13. Brian Bixler has been recalled to take his place.

Ultimately, it's the right call. As much as you'd like to see Lowrie out there, it's better to let him rest it for another week than run the risk of further injury. Obviously.

Still nobody knows what to do about Lowrie

The Astros still don't know what to do about Jed Lowrie's thumb. So he's taking BP in the tunnel (not with his mates, so they don't make fun of him if he screams like a banshee, presumably) today.

Mills, who has already made out the lineup card, and has Lowrie on it:
“I don’t know exactly how good it is until after we talk to him after taking some swings and after taking ground balls and doing his work today. With as much as it has improved these last couple of days, there’s definitely a real good chance.”

Astros won't know for sure about Lowrie until Friday

The 25-Man roster has to be set by 4pm today, but silly rules like that don't apply to Jed Lowrie. The Astros can either leave him active, or DL him at any point. But that might not happen until Friday.

Luhnow:
We’ll take all the time he can. If we thought it was just going to be Friday-Saturday and he’d be back Sunday, we’d probably keep him active. But we probably won’t know all that information until Friday.”

Lowrie told McTaggart:
“You know what, it feels a lot better than I thought it was going to at this point. It’s only a week out and it feels like it’s been about two months. I’m very happy with the progress it’s made, and I think it’s just because it’s a muscle strain it’s about getting soreness and stiffness out.”

Lowrie could miss Opening Day

Marwin Gonzalez could be your SS1 come Opening Day, as there's some concern about Jed Lowrie's thumb, which he sprained diving into 2nd base on Wednesday.

Mills:
"He wasn't able to grip the ball as well as we'd like. We're going to wait and see how that works out. It's pretty tender."

Lowrie says he can't pick up the bat, and Luhnow isn't giving away any details:
"That could be a few days; it could be a couple of weeks, and anywhere in between. We need to proceed with contingency plans in place for Jed being ready to go Opening Day, and Jed not being ready to go Opening Day.

If Gonzalez doesn't stick on the roster, the Astros have brought Angel Sanchez and Brian Bixler back over from minor-league camp. Because God has forsaken us.

J.R. Towles done for the season

Catcher J.R. Towles is likely done for the year following surgery in which a torn tendon near his thumb was repaired, though the surgery was initially scheduled to repair his UCL. Both have been fixed, but Towles is out 6-8 weeks. Meaning the season.

-

Ricky Bennett also had good things to say about 17-year old GCL Astros shortstop Jose Fernandez:

"He has soft hands, good aptitude and continues to make progress."