Thursday Morning Hot Links

It's Astros Playoff Eve!

*It's Yankees/Red Sox in the ALDS, so that automatically relegates everyone else to the Morning Slot for playoff games so that ESPN/TBS/TruTV/Whoever The Hell can do a six-hour pre-game buildup. Astros County Guarantee: Luke Voit will be the one everyone hates the most by the end of the weekend.

*MLB.com's (and Indians beat-writer) Anthony Castrovince has a position-by-position breakdown of the Astros/Indians series. If you want to find something to argue about - because that's so hard when you're #online now - start your day here.

*Game 1: Verlander vs. Kluber.
Game 2: Cole vs. Carrasco
Game 3: Keuchel vs. Clevinger

"They're pretty loaded top to bottom," Mike Clevinger said. "But we're right there with them. There's not anything they have that we don't have. They're not that special." https://t.co/EMgaoGn8tp

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) May 19, 2018

*Despite not playing any games since I last did this on Tuesday, the Astros' 58-42 edge from FanGraphs has now dropped to 50.8-49.2. Who knew four days off could swing momentum in such a huge way?

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros a 63-37 edge in making the ALCS. They're giving the Astros a 65-35 shot at winning Game 1. Wait. The Astros went to a Drake concert? Make that 90-10 in favor of Cleveland. Cleveland in Two.

*Terry Francona:
The one thing that I think they've really done for the last couple years is they play until it's time to go home. Sometimes you'll beat them, but they might just have to run out of outs. They keep coming at you. You've got to pay attention to detail, but they're fun to play because they've got so many good players, so many good pitchers. 

*The Astros bullpen is now a strength.

*Chandler Rome describes "agonizing decisions" in who to leave off the playoff roster. Personally, I'd go with Bregman over Bogar.

*The reason you couldn't get tickets to any playoff games is because the Astros sent them all to a lady in Spring Branch.

*Two dudes who are Well Known for their reasonable takes and astute baseball knowledge - Chris Broussard and Rob Parker - talked to Alex Bregman about the possibility of a repeat.

*Boston Globe: Alex Cora borrowed from the Astros' model.

*Jake Kaplan notes that Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, and Hector Rondon all spent significant time with the Indians' organization.

*AL West Playoff Wins since Houston joined the American League:
-Houston: 14
-Arlington: 2
-Oakland: 2
-Anaheim: 0
-Seattle: 0

*From Andy McCullough: An inside look at 2017 World Series Game 5 - How a championship slipped away from the Dodgers.

*A musical selection. Peep Midlake's Eric Pulido's Astros hat:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

Keuchel struggled early and the Astros proved once again this season that there are, in fact, deficits that are too large to overcome. The Astros have not yet won a game in which they trailed by more than two runs. Though they gave it a decent run yesterday, scoring the final four runs of the game and coming about 10-15 feet away from a game-tying Josh Reddick pinch-hit home run in the bottom of the 9th. Houston is 4-9 in 1-run games, losing their last five 1-run games.

*The Astros are now 24-5 when scoring 4+ runs.

*Keuchel needed 98 pitches to make it through 5IP, 6H/4ER, 3K:2BB. His ERA is 3.43. It's his 6th loss of the season (again, not all on him), and he took the L five times in 2017.

His 1st Inning, though: 10IP, 15H/8ER, 5K:3BB. 7.20 ERA. Keuchel's ERA, by inning, 2018:

1st: 7.20
2nd: 1.80
3rd: 0.00
4th: 3.60
5th: 3.00
6th: 5.14
7th: 5.40
8th: 0.00

*It's his 3rd start (out of 10) with three or fewer strikeouts. Keuchel:
I felt good from the get-go. That's why it's so frustrating when I come out of the game with 90-something pitches in five innings with four runs on the board.

*Joe Smith: 1IP, 1H/1ER, 0K:1BB. Today's home run allowed broke a four-game scoreless streak. On the season, Smith: 13.1IP, 14H/11ER, 13K:5BB. Smith's last eight outings (cherry-picked, for sure):
6.2IP, 9H/8ER, 7K:2BB.

*Never trust a guy named Todd:

Brian McCann has been displeased with Todd Tichenor's zone all day

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) May 19, 2018

*Meanwhile, Collin McHugh is wonderful. 1IP, 0H/0ER, 2K:1BB. He has now made 12 appearances without allowing the one run he's given up. In the last 12 games: 15IP, 9H/0ER, 19K:4BB. His 0.51 ERA leads all AL relievers.

*Tony Sipp needed nine pitches to retire the side in the 6th. His last seven appearances: 5.1IP, 3H/1ER, 3K:0BB. All three hits and one run came in the same May 7 appearance.

*Houston was 0x6 w/RISP, 1x16 w/RISP in these two games against Cleveland. One. For. Sixteen.

They didn't have a runner on 2nd until the 5th inning. Opportunities:

-7th Inning: Gurriel on 2nd, nobody out - Marwin grounded out, Gattis popped out, Kemp grounded out. The ball never left the infield.
-8th Inning: Altuve on 2nd (ruled a ground-rule double that should have been a home run), one out - Correa flied out (barely), McCann flied out.

*5-9 in the lineup: 3x19.

*Houston hit three home runs in a single game for the 5th time this season. They're 4-1. The Astros were 24-3 in games in which they hit 3+ HR in 2017.

*George Springer was 2x4. He's 5x12 in his last three games, and is hitting .361/.400/.541 in May.

*Alex Bregman was 1x4 with a solo home run. He now has 44 hits on the season, 26 of them are singles. It was his first RBI since May 8 - the last time he hit a home run.

*After Marwin went on a 6-game hitless streak that included an 0x21, he has three hits in his last seven ABs, including a 9th-inning home run that brought the Astros to within one run. Marwin:
You always feel good whenever you battle until the end. That's what we do all the time. That's what makes this team special. We never quit.

*Because Tyler Bauer is a piece of crap, Terry Francona texted A.J. Hinch to clean up Tyler's mess. Francona:
I don't think that's fair to (Hinch). I just told him that I appreciated the way he handled it, and we'll try to move on.

Oh, and Tyler made a charitable donation to the Lance McCullers, Jr. Foundation:

Donation 51/69 goes to The @LMcCullers43 Foundation. It aims to get pets out of sticky situations by promoting pet adoptions, raising awareness for shelters and programs, and continuing the journey to a no-kill world. Tell me about your charity. https://t.co/PSouuufsQ3 pic.twitter.com/WsKwmXZ58B

— Trevor “Tyler” Bauer (@BauerOutage) May 18, 2018

"Sticky situations." Tyler thinks he's cute. He ain't cute. Bauer is on track to pitch the Wednesday, May 23 game against the Cubs and then the Monday, May 28 game against the White Sox. In between those two starts is a four-game series with the Astros. Please, dear sweet Jesus, let the Astros face Bauer in Game 3 of the ALCS and absolutely rip him to shreds.

Bauer, on taping "Tyler" to the top of his jersey:
Everybody who thought they were going to wear me out for being Tyler, then they saw it on my back, and they didn't have anything to say after that. They just kept yelling the same joke over and over, which was kind of frustrating for them because I was one step ahead of them - again...

...I'd love to face the Astros. I'm never one to back down from a challenge or elevated stakes. I like it. I like the added adrenaline, the added importance and focus and things like that. It's what baseball should be. They should want to kick my butt and I should want to kick their butt. We'll see who's better. I'm not giving up.

*Josh Reddick pinch-hit yesterday but is expected to be in the lineup tonight after dealing with a "leg infection," which might have been the result of a spider bite. Reddick is truly Possum King II.

*Preston Wilson apologized for saying that hitting a slider was "harder" than slavery on the broadcast yesterday. I retweeted a couple of videos of his remarks. Of course I don't think that Preston Wilson meant that literally. I think it was a joke. And probably, in some context, a funny one. Most of the comments were mostly white people telling me - also a white guy - what to think and not to think, which I don't very much appreciate. I guess that's Twitter, though. And this is why I'll be staying off Twitter for a while. Between Santa Fe and this, I need a break from freaking morons who think that, simply because they have an account, then they can tell me how to react to situations. Screw that.

*Jake Marisnick was 2x5 and homered for the second straight game in a 4-0 Fresno win. A.J. Reed was 1x1 with 3BB and his 7th home run of the year. Tyler White has a 40-game on-base streak. Starting pitcher was removed after 3.2IP due to getting hit by a comebacker in the elbow.

*Minor League Ball wrote up a trade check-in on the Gomez/Fiers trade with Milwaukee.

*Sam Khan, Jr. has a touching piece in ESPN about the Santa Fe High School baseball team.

*Jenny Cavnar became the first female to take play-by-play duties since 1993. She good.

*Potential 2018 1-1 pick Casey Mize didn't want his mom to buy him a gaming system, so he could focus on baseball.

*Andy Slater went to the British Virgin Islands to investigate the Marlins' business practices. He embarrassed them. The Marlins pulled his press credentials.

*Staten Island guy finds a safe with cash and jewels in it and then the Ninja Burglar happens.

Terry Francona loves him some Brad Mills

Nice article in the Boston Globe about the ongoing relationship between Brad Mills and Terry Francona.

Francona:
“The thing I think that gets lost a little bit in the translation is that I’ve probably learned more from Millsie than he’s ever learned from me. I’ve always looked up to him. We can go back all the way to [the University of Arizona] when I was a freshman and he was a junior. He was always a bit of a big-brother type to me. Things work out funny sometimes, and he was a coach, but the bench coach, the way we do things, listens to an earful from me probably more often than they want to. Because of our relationship, he probably warranted it more than he should have, but I always looked up to him."

Astros County's Connie Mack ballot

You're probably thinking, "Okay, yeah, the Crawfish Boxes had a Manager of the Year post this morning. Way to gravy train it, Astros County." And we could see how you would think that. However, it's not true. I mean, yes, the Crawfish Boxes did have an identical post this morning, but there's a different story to why we're doing it today. As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, we are to vote on major awards, and the deadline for the Manager of the Year voting is tomorrow. So, in the absence of any real Astros news from the last 24 hours, we'll take this opportunity to put our votes forward today.

Each ballot must have three names, so you'll see the voting and rationale below. Quick disclaimer: This award is ridiculous. We hate it. Our old friend Anonymous can write in telling us how stupid we are and make a good case.

American League

3rd Place: Terry Francona - Boston

Francona dealt with an astounding number of injuries throughout the season, and while the Red Sox were never really in the hunt for a playoff spot - thanks to their divisional competition - their 89-73 record was quite impressive.

2nd Place: Ron Gardenhire - Minnesota

The Twins did what the Twins do, and that's win the AL Central and go to the playoffs with a fairly low payroll.

1st Place: Ron Washington - Texas

Not 15 months ago Ron Washington was snorting coke after a game. Now he's managing the Rangers in the playoffs for the first time this decade, having destroyed AL West competition! No team won their division by a wider margin than the Rangers' nine-ame cushion.




National League

3rd Place: Dusty Baker - Cincinnati

Basically everybody put the Magic Number for the Cardinals at 162 from Opening Day. So when the Reds got swept by the Cardinals in August, but finished the month 19-8, anyway, it showed their resilience. With the mixture of veterans and youth, and the emergence of Joey Votto as a superstar, Baker stood at the helm.

2nd Place: Bobby Cox - Atlanta

Cox will likely get votes based on his Last Season, and all that, but it's pretty well-deserved. The Braves went toe-to-toe with the Phillies all season, and still made the playoffs despite losing Chipper Jones (in Houston. Sorry, Larry Wayne) and a number of others to injury.

1st Place: Bud Black - San Diego

This is a team that was paying its players $2.13/hour + tips, and if it hadn't been for a 10-game losing streak late in the season, would be in the playoffs getting the crap kicked out of them by the Phillies. Bud Black took a team of Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell, and 23 Other Guys from a 75-87 record to the brink of the postseason.

Francona is kind of a sweetheart

WEEI has a sweet story about Terry Francona giving Mills a call.

Francona:
“When we lose, and it’s not possible, I want everyone to lose. I want everyone to play extra innings and lose. The exception, I wanted Houston to win last night. I gave Millsy a nice of congratulations and then found out when I called him, they gave up eight late and so I even screwed that up...

Not sure what a nice of congratulations is (maybe it's like a group of congratulations. Like a murder of crows. Or a cram of sex toys.) But here's Francona, on whether he's surprised by the Astros' recent success:

...“No, I’m not amazed. Not ‘I told you so’ but all of his qualities are coming out. He started out slow, they’re getting beat up, he just kept fighting. He helped create a culture and they’re five games under .500 and they could’ve quit. All of sudden, there’s reason for optimism, guys are enjoying coming to the ballpark in September and they’re not even .500. That’s Millsy.

They lost the first eight games of the year. Some veterans weren’t happy. He did a great job. I think he’s kind of included player development and it’s his personality, he’s finally a got a chance to do it. Good for him. I don’t think that’s a surprise at all.”

Francona keeping tabs on Mills

Nick Cafardo says that Terry Francona has been keeping up with Mills. His word of advice? Put down the gun:

Francona has been keeping in constant contact with old friend Brad Mills, whose Astros have struggled mightily since the start of the season. Francona said he was in contact with Mills up to a half-hour before the Astros' game last night.

"Feels like we're playing double-headers," said Francona, referring to the fact he feels for Mills. Otherwise he said he thinks Mills is "doing OK."

More Francona on Mills

Terry Francona appeared on WEEI's Dale & Holley Show, and spent some time talking about Brad Mills. Here's part of the transcript:

It’s interesting that the general manager in Houston now was the general manager in Philadelphia when you guys were there. Do you think that worked to his advantage?

I think it got him an interview. I think Millsy had to kind of take it and go from there, which is good. Ed Wade’s a good guy. We’ve been through a lot together. Shoot, he had to fire me, and that’s not easy for him and it wasn’t a whole lot of fun for me. But we’re still really good friends. And I think a lot of Eddie. He’s a solid, solid guy. Cares about people. I think he and Millsy are a very good match together.

What kind of manager do you think he’ll be?

You know, I don’t know. I know one thing, he’s cheap. He’s not going to pay for any cabs for his coaches. You’re going to have start working on that. [Laughter] You know what, this will be interesting, because he’s always kind of had to formulate his feelings around how I felt. I mean, that’s what a bench coach does. You give your opinion, but the decisions come down to me. Now, he’ll be making those decisions. The game won’t be going too fast for him. He’s been doing this his whole life. He’s got a great feel for baseball. He’s a very good person. He’s got a combination of a lot of good things that should help make him successful.

I was surprised that Houston Astros owner Drayton McLane spoke so glowingly of a phone call you made to Drayton McLane to give your endorsement for Brad Mills. He was pretty open about how important that was to him.

Well, he actually called me and I was really impressed. So many times in this game people make calls to maybe cover their backside or just to say they did it. He came armed with questions — and good questions. And I actually really enjoyed it. We had a fun conversation. In fact, toward the end of the conversation we both kind of commented that we were ready for spring training. He’s a really likable guy, got a lot of personality. And again, you’re talking about Brad Mills, one of my favorite people in the the world, so, yeah, I told him how I felt. And I hope it did help. That was the whole idea.

Is it possible or likely you’re going to have to find somebody else as well? Is somebody going to go with Mills to Houston?

I think Millsy is in the process today of trying to get some thoughts together on his staff. I think it’s a possibility but I don’t think it’s a probability.

Interesting...

Francona and Mills is one of baseball's great love stories

WEEI's Alex Speier talked to Mills and Francona's coach at Arizona, Jerry Kindall, about Brad Mills' new job, continuing to do a better job at covering the hiring of Brad Mills than the Houston media (save for McTaggart):

“I think it was inevitable in my mind [that Mills became a manager]. When he was here at the university, Brad was so serious about the intricacies of baseball. He would make notes on practice plans. During the game, he kept a book on all the pitchers we faced. He was so alert to absorb everything that he could. He wanted to be a coach.

I hoped that someday we could put him on our staff here at the University of Arizona. We would discuss him in the coaches meetings: ‘Maybe we should bring him in here with us and listen to him.’ We were half-joking — just half-joking. We could have used his counsel at the time.

"It’s a little more surprising that Terry has ascended to be one of the top managers. In college, he was so happy-go-lucky. He was such a fun guy. He played hard all the time, but he was a practical joker and had that wry sense of humor. He’s very self-effacing. He doesn’t seek the limelight or center stage. He’s just a genuine guy.

As a college player and student, he was just one of the fun guys to be around. He was very dependable but also enjoyed everything so much that I didn’t know if he could get serious enough to be a manager. He sure did — he sure has.”

What about the progression of Francona/Mills' relationship?
“They gravitated together right away. They hung around with each other, rather than partying with some other folks like they might have.

“I think the two of them have rubbed off on one another. I can’t say one more than the other. But they have filled each others’ weaknesses to make a combination or duo of great strengths. The two of them helped each other in such a way that it was really a blessing to watch them develop as individuals, as ballplayers, as students and as husbands. They strengthened one another. In Boston, they’ve been complementing one another very, very well.”

The journey of the two of them, it’s a great story — starting way back in 1978. I got to see that develop. I am so privileged. They really are so genuine, so real,” Kindall said. “This is the great culmination of two guys working together to become leaders — to lead ballclubs.”

Francona's reaction to Mills' hiring

Seems the Boston media is putting in more work than the Houston media on the Mills hiring.

Terry Francona:
"He's wanted this. I'm so proud, not just of him, but for him. He's not going to shortchange anybody on effort. He embodies so much of what's good in our game. I'm so happy for him. This meant a lot to him, as it should. I'm so thrilled for him. How much we're going to miss him, sure, but it's so far outweighed by happiness."

How will Mills approach his new job?
"Attack is a good word. He's got a lot of skills that are going to help make him a successful manager. He understands communication. He respects the players. I think he'll make the players be accountable, all the things we've talked about for six years in Boston. He's a smart baseball person and he's a very good person. That's a pretty good combination. We've been friends for 30 years. You can't replace that. He got his chance to do his own thing. We're so happy for him, but replacing him won't be easy, that's a given."

And apparently Ed Wade is a bit of a prankster:
Ed Wade called to tell Francona of his decision to hire Mills, but didn't exactly come straight out with the news. Wade, who had fired Francona from his spot as the Phillies manager years ago, tried to get Francona to think that Mills hadn't been chosen, before finally coming out with the truth.

And in this MLB.com article, we see that Drayton was impressed by Terry Francona, whom he immediately tried to send to Tampa Bay:
I've never seen an endorsement like Terry gave Brad.

Mills:
"I just left an organization, the Boston Red Sox, that I owe a lot to, starting with [principal owner] John Henry, [chairman] Tom Werner, [president/CEO] Larry Lucchino and everybody in that organization," said Mills. "They were very special to me the six years I was over there. [General manager] Theo Epstein and his staff, they were absolutely outstanding. And it goes without saying, Terry Francona. The experience that all of them and Terry were able to give me helped set me up for this today. I am deeply proud to say that I was involved with them at that time, and I appreciate it, and I want to thank them very much."

Francona:
"[We were in touch] a little bit. Eddie, he did a good job. He asked a lot of good questions, but personally, I think it's a good fit. I know both of them. I have a lot of respect for both of them, and I think it's a great fit. I've probably taken it for granted that everybody is where they're supposed to be because he's so good at it. We'll certainly have to make some adjustments. But his gain far outweighs any adjustments we have to make. Millsy embodies so much of what is good in baseball. For him to get an opportunity, it sure is nice. It sure is exciting for all of us. I think he's ready. He's been ready. That's subjective, but he's been working his whole life toward this. When he was second in charge, he did a great job. Now he's going to be making the decisions, and he'll do a great job. You can't find a better guy. He deserves this opportunity. Again, I hope he takes it and runs with it. I'm thrilled for him."

Response on Twitter

In a series of tweets by Alyson Footer and Brian McTaggart, we have some preliminary response from the Astros themselves:

Dave Clark, who will apparently remain 3rd base coach in 2010:
I'm going to give this guy every ounce of energy to make this ballclub better. Classy.

Lance Berkman:
He’s kind of an unknown to me, but I’m looking forward to getting to know him. I’ve heard great things.

Tim Bogar:
Brad is going to be everything everyone is looking for in a manager.

Hunter Pence:
I’m excited to look at the next chapter of the Astros and our season and hopefully we get moving in right direction

ESPN.com's Amy K. Nelson:
When I spoke to Mills on day after the Red Sox were eliminated, you could tell how excited he was for the chance to manage. Good for him.

Terry Francona:
Millsy embodies so much of what is good in baseball. For him to get an opportunity, it sure is exciting for all of us.

One of Alyson Footer's Red Sox Writer friends:
(He's) probably most organized coach I've ever been around. Had every day of Spring Training plotted out weeks in advance of camp. Big help to Francona on bench helping pitchers with pick off moves, aligning the defense."

Alyson Footer:
If they have someone who can align the defense they're already light years better off than they were in 2009. Light years.