Monday Morning Link Dump: December 8

Here's what you knead two no as the Winter Meetings kick off and your favorite beat writers talk about what a drag it is to go to San Diego in December. 

*Of course, the Astros are looking for bullpen help after the Goatpen of 2012-2014 blew eleventy billion leads.

*Perceived top target? Reliever David Robertson, who has thrown over 60IP in each of the last five seasons, with a sub-2.70 FIP in each of the last four, and recorded the 3rd 13.0+ K/9 in 2014. He's looking for a 4yr/$50m-ish deal for his next contract. Next problem: the Astros don't think Robertson wants to pitch in Houston.

*But the White Sox are going after David Robertson, too.

*And if they can't get Robertson (after all, they did offer more money to Andrew Miller, who just went to the Yankees, anyway)? The Astros are expected to go after former Giants closer Sergio Romo. Romo will be cheaper than Robertson, especially since he's coming off a "down year," in which he had his first season with an ERA+ under league average. That said, his WHIP was 0.95, and he posted a 4.92 K/BB ratio.

*Another bullpen possibility: Luke Gregerson, whom Evan Drellich describes as "the Astros' most logical remaining free-agent option."

*According to TSN, the Astros have inquired about 3B Chase Headley, but "it looks like it has come down to the Yankees or Giants."

*The Astros apparently have interest in free agent starter Brett Anderson, who recently ripped the Astros and Lucas Harrell:

*Phil Humber signed a $600,000 contract with the Kia Tigers in Korea.

Humber signs with A's

Yesterday Phil Humber signed a minor-league deal with Oakland.

Now watch Brad Pitt turn him into a 20-game winner for the A's in 2014.

40-Man Roster changes

Aha! Now we have some tranzactionz of which we can speak, so let's see where we are now:

Outrighted off the 40-Man Roster:
Cody Clark, Phil Humber, Brandon Laird, Matt Pagnozzi

Added to the 40-Man Roster:
Jon Singleton, Raul Valdes

Declining Phil Humber's 2014 option will be probably the easiest move The Law Offices of Jeff Luhnow will make all off-season. The choice was, (a) Buy Humber out for $500,000 or (b) give him $3m to pitch in 2014. Seeing as how Humber posted a 7.90 ERA/1.74 WHIP in 54.2IP, allowing batters to hit .322/.375/.575. Humber made 17 appearances (seven starts) for the 2013 Astros, and had just two in which he didn't allow a run. The Astros were 1-16 in games Humber pitched.

It will be interesting to see if the Astros bring him back as a potential bullpen arm wait wait wait let me try to explain. Righties hit .189/.289/.349 (albeit with an insanely low .205 BABIP) against Humber, and his 7.90 ERA is a little misleading, since his FIP is 5.02 and xFIP is 4.61. Those aren't great numbers by any means, but if Humber can come in as a righty specialist, maybe there's some value there. I doubt other teams are lining up to inquire about Humber's services.

Raul Valdes, though, was picked up yesterday as a waiver claim from Philadelphia, Valdes, a 35-year old lefty reliever had the worst season of his four-year career in 2013 (while coming off the best season of his career). In 35IP for the Phillies, Valdes allowed 42H/29ER, 37K:8BB for a 7.46 ERA/1.43 WHIP. But Valdes really only had three bad outings:

April 5 vs. KC: 2IP, 7H/4ER
April 17 @ CIN: 3.1IP, 6H/5ER
And his lone start of the season on July 27 at Detroit in which he threw 3.2IP, giving up 12H/9ER, 3K:0BB.

Valdes is one of those pitchers whose secondary numbers are far better than his traditional stats. While, yes, his ERA was 7.46, his FIP was 4.39 while his xFIP was 3.74. He's probably not as good as his 2012 indicated - the 2.90 ERA (which is close to his 3.03 xFIP) was benefited by a .214 BABIP which regressed so hard in 2013 (.357 BABIP).

Wesley Wright got traded to the Rays for a sack of cash.

Wesley Wright has been traded to the Rays for "Cash Considerations." Which means that the Astros put Wright on waivers, Tampa Bay claimed him, and they agreed to trade money.

Wright, a Rule 5 pick in 2007, made his Astros debut in 2008 and had spent six seasons with the team. He had a career 4.44 ERA/1.43 WHIP with Houston, though he had a career-best 3.27 ERA/1.19 WHIP in 2012. In 41.1IP in 2013, he allowed 45H/18ER, 40K:16BB for a 1.48 WHIP. Which is not good.

Jason Castro is now the longest-tenured Astro, having been with the team since June 22, 2010.

Phil Humber will take his roster spot.

PreStros Morning Report: June 24

Oklahoma City (40-36), 3.5 GB

OKC had a 2-1 lead heading into the 6th, but two Omaha runs gave them the margin for a 3-2 win over the RedHawks. Phil Humber got the hard-luck loss with 7IP, 6H/3R (1ER), 3K:1BB, 2HBP, 2WP; Jose Valdez allowed only a hit in the final two innings.

Brett Wallace (2B) and Jake Elmore were each 2x4; Jimmy Paredes hit a 2-run homer. Jon Homerton was 1x3 with a walk.

Man of the Match: Unbelievably, Phil Humber.

Corpus

All-Star Break

Lancaster (5-0), 1.5 up

The JetHawks remain undefeated in the 2nd Half with three two-run innings for a 6-3 win over Bakersfield. Tyson Perez threw 3.1IP, 5H/2ER, 3K:3BB; Michael Dimock threw 1.2IP, 2H/0ER, 0K:1BB and David Rollins closed it out with the 12-out save, allowing 2H/1ER, 7K:1BB.

Carlos Perdomo was 3x5 with an RBI; MP Cokinos was 2x3 with a double and 4RBI; Delino DeShields  was 0x4 with a walk and two runs scored. Preson Tucker was 1x3 with a double and walk.

Man of the Match: MP Cokinos

Quad Cities (4-0), tied

Off

Tri-City (6-2), 1.5 up

Tri-City got shut down by Connecticut in a 4-0 loss in which the ValleyCats collected four hits. Michael Feliz threw 5IP, 3H/2R (0ER), 4K:0BB; Charles Basford allowed 2H/1ER in 1IP; Andrew Thurman allowed 4H/1ER in 2IP.

Tony Kemp, D'Andre Toney (2B), Dan Gulbransen and Luis Alvarez had your lone hits. Jon Kemmer drew the only walk.

Man of the Match: Michael Feliz.

Greeneville (1-4), 3.0 GB

Elizabethton scored the first seven runs in a 7-2 win over the Gastros. Jordan Mills allowed 2H/1R (0ER), 3K:2BB in 2IP; Christian Garcia allowed 4H/2ER, 3K:0BB in 3IP; Gerardo Ramirez allowed 5H/4ER, 2K:1BB in 1IP; J.D. Osborne struck out four in two scoreless innings, and Sebastian Kessay allowed a hit and a walk in the 9th.

Bobby Borchering was 2x4; Darwin Rivera was 2x4 with a double and a two-run homer, but committed three errors; Marc Wik had your other hit, going 1x2 before being replaced by newly-demoted Ariel Ovando, who went 0x2.

Man of the Match: Uhhhh

GCL Astros (2-1), tied

The Astros withstood a late rally by the Tigers, preserving a 5-4 win. Brandon Culbreth allowed 4H/1ER, 7K:1BB in 5IP; Javier Lozano gave up 2H/1ER, 1K:2BB in 2IP; Jose Montero allowed a hit and a walk in 1IP; Erick Gonzalez allowed 3H/2ER, 1K:1BB in 1IP.

Tyler White was 2x3 with a double and two walks; Jason Martin (SB), Brett Booth (2B, RBI) and Ydarqui Marte each had a hit and a walk. Jacob Nottingham provided a walk and an RBI.

Man of the Match: Brandon Culbreth.

Humber on his way to OKC

According to Brian McTaggart, Phil Humber has cleared waivers after being designated for assignment. He has accepted his assignment to Oklahoma City and will join the team today in Sacramento.

Is Phil Humber the most unlikely pitcher to ever throw a perfect game?

Phil Humber took the mound at Safeco Field on April 21, 2012 for his second start of the season. In his previous start against Baltimore, he pitched well enough: 5.1IP, 6H/1ER, 7K:3BB.

Coming into the 2012 season, Humber - a former #3 overall pick by the Mets - was on his fifth team, and the White Sox were his third team in three years. He was 11-10 for his career with a 4.12 ERA/1.28 WHIP. In 214.1IP, he had allowed 210H/98ER, 151K:65BB, and had a 106 ERA+. But apparently he sold his soul to the devil on April 21, 2012 when he threw the 21st Perfect Game in the modern era.

From the next start (getting lit up at Boston) through his release from the Astros, here are his stats:

123.1IP, 164H/120ER, 89K:56BB. This translates into an 8.76 ERA/1.79 WHIP since throwing his Perfect Game. Assuming he doesn't pitch in the Majors again (which is not a certainty) his career will end with a 16-23 record, 5.34 ERA/1.43 WHIP and an 81 OPS+.

Which got me wondering: Is Phil Humber the most unlikely pitcher to ever throw a Perfect Game?

There are some names we can just automatically cross off the list as not being germane to this conversation for obvious reasons:

Cy Young. Jim Bunning. Sandy Koufax. Catfish Hunter. Randy Johnson. Roy Halladay. Felix Hernandez.

There are pitchers on the list who have had better careers or are currently having unquestionably better careers, and can thus be eliminated from the discussion:

Dennis Martinez, Kenny Rogers, David Wells, David Cone, Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain.

This leaves the following non-Phil-Humber pitchers in the discussion, if only because I needed to look a few things up and analyze their careers more closely:

Addie Joss, Charlie Robertson, Don Larsen, Len Barker, Mike Witt, Tom Browning, Dallas Braden. Let's take them in order of appearance:

Addie Joss

Alright, first things first: Addie Joss is a Hall of Famer. Interestingly enough, Addie Joss is the only player in the Hall of Fame who played fewer than the requisite ten years due to the fact that he died of tubercular meningitis two days after his 31st birthday in 1911, after nine seasons in the Majors, and thy waived the 10-year requirement for him. Lawrence Ritter named him one of the 100 greatest players of all-time. That's enough to take him out of this discussion. But he did finish his career 160-97 with a 1.89 ERA/0.97 WHIP. He won 20+ games in four straight seasons, and after his rookie season in 1902, his career ERA was 1.77.

Charlie Robertson

A strong candidate. Robertson (from Dexter, Texas), started his career in earnest in 1922 for the White Sox, St. Louis Browns, and Boston Braves. On April 30, 1922 Robertson threw his perfect game at Detroit, striking out six in the process.

From his next start forward, Robertson was 12-15, allowing 271H/103ER, 72K:85BB. He was 13-18 in 1923 with a 3.81 ERA (104 ERA+), and that was the last time he had an above-league-average ERA. From 1923 through the end of his career in 1928 he was 35-64 with a 4.73 ERA/1.56 WHIP (84 OPS+), and he was 49-80 with a 4.44 ERA/1.52 WHIP, striking out 310 batters in 1005IP (2.8 per 9IP) and walking 377 (3.4 per 9IP).

Don Larsen

I know what you're thinking: It's the only perfect game in World Series history! Hell, it was the only no-hitter in playoff history until Roy Halladay no-hit the Reds in Game 1 of the NLDS in 2010. But the fact is, Larsen's perfect game in Game 5 of the World Series (against Brooklyn) is really the only thing Larsen has to hang his hat on for his career.

In that 14-year career he was 81-91 (assisted by a 3-21 season with Baltimore in 1954) with a 3.78 ERA/1.40 WHIP. His 99 ERA+ is perfectly average. And he really only made spot starts after the 1958 season, shifting more and more frequently to the bullpen as the years went by. Interestingly enough, Larsen was purchased by the Houston Colt .45s in 1964, and traded him the following season to Baltimore.

From 1957 to the end of his Major-League career in 1967, Larsen was 51-51 with a 3.75 ERA/1.41 WHIP, 99 OPS+. He struck out 522 batters in 877 innings, but also walked 425. Not great. Not bad. Perfectly average.

Len Barker

Barker's perfect game on May 15, 1981 against Toronto was the 10th perfect game in history, the last ever thrown by a Cleveland Indian. Barker was coming off a 19-12 season for the 1980 Indians, leading the AL with 187 strikeouts, and 6.8 K/9. The following season, shortened by the strike, Barker led the AL with 127 strikeouts. With the perfect game, Barker finished the season 8-7 and got a nod as an AL All-Star. But from 1982 forward to the end of his career, Barker was 35-45 with a 4.52 ERA/1.34 WHIP, and a 91 ERA+.

Mike Witt

Witt's perfect game, on the last day of the 1984 season, gave him the first of what would be four consecutive 15-win seasons. From 1985 to the end of his career in 1993, Witt was 79-76 with a 3.87 ERA/1.31 WHIP. He threw 49 complete games in that span. Witt also would come out of the bullpen on April 11, 1990 to throw a combined no-hitter with Mark Langston against Seattle.

Tom Browning

Browning pitched nine full seasons in the majors (considering a "full season" more than seven appearances), and was a 20-game winner in 1985, earning a 6th-place Cy Young vote and a runner-up in the NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Vince Coleman. He was also 18-5 with a 3.41 ERA/1.07 WHIP in 1988, and got an All-Star bid in 1991. So when he threw a perfect game against the Dodgers on September 16, 1988, it gave him his 16th win of the season, and he would pitch in to the 8th inning of each of the last three starts of the season. From 1989 to the end of his career in 1995 (a two-game stint with the Royals), he was 60-50 with a 4.07 ERA/1.32 WHIP (95 ERA+).

Dallas Braden

The serious challenger to Phil Humber for our purposes today. Braden was 14-21 heading into the 2010 season with a 4.68 ERA/1.44 WHIP and a 92 ERA+. He was 3-2 going into his May 9 start against the Rays, but throwing Quality Starts in five of his first six starts of the season. So when he threw a perfect game on Mother's Day it was interesting and notable and all of that. It was the first complete game of his career. It was the first time that a perfect game had been thrown against a team with MLB's best record at the time.

Braden had a torn shoulder capsule early in 2011 and needed immediate surgery, missing the rest of 2011. He also missed all of 2012 and had rotator cuff surgery on his shoulder in August 2012, meaning that he'll miss at least the first half of 2013, as well. He's now a free agent.

So how does the list look now? By these short(ish) bios, we can eliminate Addie Joss, Len Barker, Mike Witt and Tom Browning from the Worst Pitcher to Throw a Perfect Game list, leaving:

Phil Humber, Dallas Braden, and Charlie Robertson.

Braden's career was shaping up nicely (he went 1-8 in his rookie season in 2007), so from 2008-2010 Braden was 24-27, but with a 3.75 ERA/1.27 WHIP and a 112 ERA+. That's pretty good. So let's recap the fight between Humber and Robertson.

Career:
Humber: 89 games, 16-23 record, 5.34 ERA/1.43 WHIP. 2.06 K:BB ratio. 81 ERA+.
Robertson: 166 games, 49-80 record, 4.44 ERA/1.52 WHIP, 0.82 K:BB ratio. 90 ERA+.

There are pluses and minuses to each. Do you give the nod to Humber (meaning he's, to put it kindly, the most unlikely Perfect Game Pitcher in baseball history)? He had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio than Robertson. Or do you give it to Robertson, who pitched in more games, had a better ERA+, but walked more than he struck out and had a higher WHIP?

I'm giving it to Humber. Thoughts?

Astros Stats

Look guys, the reality is, when faced with a conflict between Bo Porter and the official rules of MLB, the umpires will side with Bo every time. I think Porter should convince the umpires that a strikeout is worth half a run. That would improve our prognosis considerably.

This will be a very Philip Humber heavy week in Astros Stats, and for that I am deeply sorry.

- If you are curious as to why Humber is struggling this year, I think I have the answer. He cannot get lefties out. Like, at all. For the season, lefties are hitting .459/.521/.729 against him, good for a .529 wOBA. Essentially, facing Humber, every lefty batter morphs into 1931 Babe Ruth or 1946 Ted Williams (both with .525, so actually a little bit better than those two seasons). Despite only 35 IP on the season, Humber has faced the 18th most lefties in the American League. Its almost as if other teams are aware of these splits, and are stacking the deck against him. That hardly seems fair, so I'm sure its just a coincidence.

- If you want some glimmer of hope for Humber in the bullpen, it will have to found against righties. He has limited them to a .183/.233/.333 line, good for a .248 wOBA. If the top lefty comp for Humber this season has been Babe Ruth, the top righty comp has been 2002 Neifi Perez, which, I think you'll agree, is much preferable. Sure enough, in his first relief stint,  Humber faced 6 batters, 5 righties, and got 3 K's, a fly out and a should have been ground out. It worth a shot to see whether Humber can be an effective reliever in right handed heavy spots.

- This is probably the least important stat I've ever posted, but I will still note it. Chris Carter did not strike out on Tuesday and Wednesday night. That marks the first time he has gone two starts without striking out since August 29 and September 1, 2012.(It was actually three games, as he did not strike out in his one pinch hit PA on August 30.) He hasn't struck out more than once in game in his last 6 (5 starts), tallying only 3 total k's during that run. He hasn't had a similar stretch since July 13 to July 25 2012, where he appeared in 9 games (8 starts), and struck out only 4 times. Lo and behold, all of sudden, Carter's K-rate is below 40% for the first time this season. He has hit .313/.353/.688 over this mini-stretch.

Humber to bullpen, Bedard back

This came out yesterday, but Phil Humber has been shifted to the bullpen and Dallas Keuchel will start tomorrow (Friday) night. Meanwhile, the Astros need someone to start Saturday night against Texas. Who should it be? Let's look at our preferences:

1. Paul Clemens
2. Jose Cisnero
3. Travis Blackley
4. Kevin Goldstein
5. Mike Fast
6. Jason Lane
7. A Roger Clemens Fathead
8. The rosin bag
9. Erik Bedard

Our Option #9 was chosen by the Astros, and Bedardadonk will start Saturday.

Porter said the Astros value what Clemens has added to the staff but Keuchel and Bedard were better fits for the rotation at this point. 

So let's compare the rotation now to the beginning of the season:

SP1: Bud Norris
SP2: Lucas Harrell
SP3: Phil Humber Dallas Keuchel
SP4: Brad Peacock Jordan Lyles
SP5: Erik Bedard

G27 Game Notes: @ New York Yankees

The Astros come off their 1-game winning streak to take on the Yankees in the 2nd game of a three-game series. Winning one of the next two games would make it onto a 2013 Year-In-Review, so the Astros send out amazingly-still-starting pitcher Phil Humber against Hiroki Kuroda.

*Kuroda, 38, pitched for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp from 1997 to 2007 and won a bronze medal with Japan in the 2004 Olympics.
*Following the 2007 season, he did not use the posting system (which would have allowed his team, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, to earn some fat bank), but declared free agency - meaning all 30 teams could negotiate freely with Kuroda. The Rangers, Mariners, Royals, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers all showed interest, and he ended up signing with the Dodgers for 3yrs/$35.3m on December 12, 2007.
*He re-signed a 1yr/$12m deal with LA for 2011 and was the first Dodger starting pitcher to lose at least 13 games in consecutive seasons since Orel Hershiser (1992-1993). The Dodgers were looking to trade him by the 2011 deadline, but Kuroda refused to waive his no-trade clause, and he finished the season 13-16 with a 3.07 ERA.

*Currently Kuroda is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA/1.03 WHIP, having allowed 23H/9ER, 22K:7BB in 29IP.
*He'll be making his 6th start of the season. Aside from his Opening Day 1.1IP 4H/2ER outing, in his last four starts Kuroda has thrown 27.2IP, 19H/7ER, 21K:6BB, 2HR and 63% of his pitches for strikes.
*In 2013, opponents are hitting .215/.271/.299 against Kuroda. RHBs have a .478 OPS while LHBs have a .644 OPS.
*At Yankee Stadium, where he is 2-1, opponents are hitting .234/.279/.344 for a .623 OPS (much better for hitters than Kuroda's road OPS of .493).
*With runners in scoring position (21PAs), opponents are hitting .133/.286/.133. That's two hits, both singles, and three walks.
*Opponent OPS, by inning:
1st: 1.184
2nd: .821
3rd: .445
4th: .133
5th: .154
6th: .364

*Kuroda has faced the Astros a few times. In his last five starts against the Astros, Kuroda is 2-0 in 31IP with 26H/7ER, 18K:8BB.
*Of course, with his last start in 2011, this team looks a little different. Ronny Cedeno has the most career PAs against Kuroda and is 3x15 with a walk. Carlos Pena has the highest OPS, going 2x5 with a walk.

*The Astros send out Phil Humber, who with five losses has already matched his loss total for 2012 (26 games, 16 starts). Humber is sporting a 7.99 ERA/1.82 WHIP.
*In his last 5IP (two starts), Humber's ERA has gone from 2.89 to 7.99. He has retired 15 of the last 36 batters he has faced, and those 21 batters who have reached have a 1.580 OPS against him - .563/.611/.969.
*In three road starts, Humber has a less-ugly 6.11 ERA/1.53 WHIP (13.50 ERA/2.67 WHIP at Minute Maid).
*Humber, with 0 outs: .460 OPS-against. With 1 out: 1.302 OPS. With 2 outs: .960 OPS.
*With Castro behind the plate: .779 OPS-against. With Corporan: 1.281 OPS-against.

Humber is totally lost

Brian Smith's article from yesterday's game focuses on Phil Humber.

In short, he's been awful. Take a look at his first three starts:

18.2IP, 17H/6ER, 8K:4BB. 67% of his pitches for strikes, 29% of of his strikes were non-contact strikes. The Astros scored one run total in his three starts, so he was 0-3 with a 2.89 ERA.

And then Cleveland happened. Between his one-out appearance in Cleveland, and his battery last night, here are the stats from Humber's last two starts:

5IP, 18H/15ER, 5K:4BB. A 1.580 OPS-against (.563/.611/.969). 58% of his pitches for strikes. In the Cleveland game, there wasn't a single player who swung and missed. Nine of those eighteen hits have been for extra-bases, and now he's 0-5 with a 7.99 ERA (and that's with a 4.69 FIP, and a 4.66 xFIP).

Reading Humber's comments to Smith, this is a guy who is lost.

"It's just pathetic. I didn't give our team a chance to win obviously the time before and definitely not this time. I'm definitely not doing my job right now..."

When asked what it will take to re-gain his early-season form, he replied:

"I don't know. I really don't."

Obviously, the confidence isn't there - and it's easy to see why. Having watched all of Humber's outings in his last two starts (my wife run-ruled it, and changed the channel after he was yanked), everything he's throwing is flat and looks like a beach ball for opposing hitters - he's allowed ten line drives and two homers in his last five innings pitched.

Maybe it's a good idea to skip Humber's next start. Let Clemens or Cisnero make a spot start, since the bullpen is by now used to having to throw multiple innings just to get through a game.

Finding Optimism in the Astros Starting Rotation

The Astros starting rotation is set, and it doesn't scream for much optimism. Only one of the pitchers in the rotation had an ERA under 4 last year, Lucas Harrell at 3.76. Bedard had an ERA over 5, and Humber had an unsightly 6.44 ERA. Even Peacock had an ERA of over 6...in Triple A. In its organizational rankings, Fangraphs had ranked the Astros' pitching staff ranked dead last, and had this to say: "This might not be the worst rotation anyone has ever put together on purpose, but it’s in the conversation." Not cool, Fangraphs, not cool. 

Thing is, though, you don't have to look very far back to get a much rosier view of this group.  Here is this groups' ERA's in 2011.

Norris    3.77
Humber  3.75
Bedard   3.62
Harrell    2.63 (Triple A)
Peacock 3.19 (Triple A)

If the Astros were going into the 2012 season with this group of pitchers, I think our projections would be quite a bit more optimistic. Maybe some regression would be expected from Humber and Norris, and I don't think you could have expected much better from Harrell than what he actually produced, but overall, that is a solid, if unspectacular, group 1-5.

Now, we can't ignore what happened last year. Norris took a step back. Humber and Bedard took three or four. Peacock was awful in his repeat of Triple A. But, if you are looking for reasons for optimism, look no further than how this group performed 2011. And there is nothing wrong with a little optimism on March 28, even for Astros fans.

Bud Norris is your Opening Day starter

As we (and others) predicted, Bo Porter has officially named Bud Norris as the Astros' Opening Day starter on March 31.

Harrell will start Game 2 and Phil Humber will start Game 3. SPs 4/5 have yet to be determined. But they won't be John Ely or Jordan Lyles (surprise!) who were both optioned to Oklahoma City today.

Lyles, who had a rough start yesterday that actually lowered his Spring ERA, was told by Porter that his roster move was not a demotion, but rather a delay. Ely had allowed 14H/11ER in 10IP, with 10K:4BB and four HR allowed.

So it seems as though Peacock, White, and Bedard are in the mix for the final two spots. And again, Bedard would be the only lefty, so I think he's a lock, leaving Peacock and White to battle it out over that final spot (I still give the nod to Peacock).

Furthermore, Luhnow told the media today that it's hard to envision a scenario in which he trades either Norris or Harrell:

Breaking down the starting rotation

Lucas Harrell and Bud Norris are in. That much we know. SP 3-5? We don't know so much.

Here are your candidates:

Jordan Lyles

Good God his Spring Training has been rough - and while you don't typically put much stock in Spring Training starts (for reasons previously explained), Lyles' 19.13 ERA/3.38 WHIP is not encouraging. In 8IP this spring Lyles has allowed 26H/17ER. He's only walked one batter, so the issue seems to be that all the batters know what he's doing, all the time. Lyles also has options left, so he wouldn't have to pass through waivers.

Alex White

White is one of three pitchers (as of 10:15am on March 16) to throw 10+ IP, and he's allowed 17H/8ER in his 10.1IP. Opponents are hitting .362 against him thus far, and he has a 2.03 WHIP. That said, in his last start against the Nationals on Thursday, White threw 4IP, 7H/2ER, 1K, and Jason Castro raved about the late life in his sinker.

Phil Humber

Has thrown exceptionally well. With a team-high 14IP, Humber has only allowed 5H/2ER, with 7K:4BB. On Monday, he threw 5IP, 1H/0ER, with 3Ks. Humber is also out of options, meaning if the Astros were to send him to OKC, he'd have to go through waivers first and I think his spring has been strong enough that there's no way he doesn't get claimed. I'm putting Humber in the rotation.

Brad Peacock

Peacock has really come along, pitching very well in his last start - allowing 4H/1ER, 5K:4BB in 5IP. 54 of his 80 pitches were for strikes. Porter was extremely complimentary, throwing his breaking ball for strikes when behind in the count.

Erik Bedard

Bedard has been limited this spring, only throwing 3IP thanks to his strained Bedardadonk. He threw an inning on Wednesday and will throw again on Sunday. There are two sides to this one: not throwing means he might actually stay healthy longer, or he could get edged out simply because the Astros haven't seen enough of him in game action. Bedard addressed this possibility after his appearance on Wednesday, but Porter likened him to Jamie Moyer - using craft and deception to get through his outing - and made special mention of hoping that the young pitchers (which narrows it down to "Everybody Else") were paying attention to how he worked. Could get a spot simply as a matter of Veteranism.

Dallas Keuchel

Another tough one, simply because he has options left and hasn't had a great Spring, throwing 7IP and allowing 7ER. That said, he's really the only LHP option out of this whole group. Out of every pitcher the Astros currently have in camp, he's one of two lefties (Bedard) to be a candidate.

John Ely

John Ely is a distinguished member of the double-digit ERA club, joining Jordan Lyles thanks to his 10.13 ERA. He also has options left, so he might just find himself back in the Pacific Coast League to start the season, with a go-bag packed to join the Astros.

So there you have it. How do you fashion a rotation out of that? If we're going based on Spring Training results alone (dangerous), your rotation might look like this:

1. Norris
2. Harrell
3. Humber
4. Peacock
5. Keuchel (lefty).

The other question is, where the heck is Luhnow going to put the guys he sends down? OKC's rotation  could be jammed up, as well. Rotation candidates for the RedHawks include Jarred Cosart, Rudy Owens, Ross Seaton, Brett Oberholtzer, Jose Cisnero, Paul Clemens (who may actually move to the bullpen for Houston), and Asher Wojciechowski.

Allow me to do the math for you: We've looked at seven pitchers for three spots, leaving four guys who aren't going to make the Astros' rotation. If Bedard doesn't make the rotation, he'll probably just be released, which would leave three starting pitchers heading down to OKC, where there are six guys already there to challenge for a rotation spot.

Update: The commenter below is correct (and I can't find the link right now): Luhnow did say at some point this off-season that OKC will proceed with two starting pitchers per game.

I do think Humber is a lock for the rotation. So who do you pick for SPs 4/5?

Rotation Update

Brian Smith had some updates on the set up of the rotation for 2013 (all links via Twitter):



*Bo Porter will determine SP1 towards the end of Spring Training (of course, either Harrell or Norris).
*One determination is Norris' strength at home vs. away.

Which is totally valid. On the road in 2012, Norris allowed an .889 OPS-against (.293/.379/.509), and just a .557 OPS-against at Minute Maid Park. Harrell had a much more manageable .713 road OPS-against in 2012, and a .663 home OPS-against. This is notable, as SP1 would get two home starts to start the season, and SP2 would get the first road game of the season at Seattle on April 8. 

*Porter said that Humber is clearly working his way into the rotation, but...
*The 3-4-5 spots have yet to be determined.
*Porter has also talked to the pitching staff about "picking up the pace," thinking that it could be leading to poor fielding. 

Philip Humber hates dolphins

The New York Times had a nice write-up on Astros rotation candidate Philip Humber. Included was this fun little anecdote:

One day, his father gave him cash to buy a souvenir. Humber, who was about 6, decided to purchase the most expensive item he could afford.“It ended up being a little trinket ring, like a championship ring with the Astros’ logo,” Humber said the other day by his locker in the Astros’ clubhouse.“The next part of our vacation, we went to Sea World in San Antonio,” he said. “I had the ring on, and we go into this dolphin exhibit where you can actually get the dolphins to come up to you and touch them.“The ring falls off. It’s loud in this place, and I’m yelling to my dad, ‘I can’t reach it!’ And here comes this dolphin and swallows that ring. Oh, it was devastating, man. I hated dolphins for a long time after that.”

They also discuss his up and down career so far with a little perspective thrown in from Jeff Luhnow and pitching coach Dennis Martinez.

Astros sign Phil Humber

The Astros announced yesterday that they have signed RHP Phil Humber to a 1-year deal with a team option for 2014. Humber, who will be 30 later this month, comes to Houston from the White Sox, returning to the Great State of Texas. The Nacogdoches native (graduating from Carthage HS), and Rice graduate, was the third overall pick in the 2004 draft by the Mets.

In 44 career starts (80 appearances overall), he is 14-14 with a 4.73 ERA/1.31 WHIP. Some have mentioned Humber as a possible reliever. But his career splits show that, in that role, he has a 5.46 ERA/1.61 WHIP, with an .810 OPS-against and a 1.48 K/BB ratio (.723 OPS-against, 2.41 K/BB as a starter).

Humber was part of the Feb 2008 trade from the Mets to the Twins for Johan Santana, and was granted free agency following the 2009 season. He signed with the Royals in December 09, and has been claimed off waivers by the A's, White Sox, and now Astros in each of the last three seasons. Of course, you remember the April 21, 2012 game in which Humber threw the 21st perfect game in MLB history against Seattle. 

Prior to the signing, Bill James had Humber projected to a 4.66 ERA, going 5-8, in 2013. 

His peripherals took a nose-dive in 2012 for the White Sox from 2011. Check it:

2011 GB/FB rate: 1.30

2012 GB/FB rate: 0.81

2011 GB%: 47.1%

2012 GB%: 34.9%

2011 HR/FB%: 7.7%

2012 HR/FB%: 16.5%

Humber threw his changeup far less in 2012 (7.5%) than in 2011 (14.6%, while his fastball (which he threw 52.6% of the time in 2011, as opposed to 45.8% in 2011) velocity stayed exactly the same - 90.5mph. FanGraphs' Pitch F/X says his fastball improved a few ticks from 90.4mph to 90.7mph. 

That said, Humber deal with an elbow flexor issue in 2012. The White Sox were 8-8 in his 16 starts for the White Sox. 

What does this mean? It's a low-risk/high-reward signing. Might it not work out? Of course. That might even be likely. But it just might. Given Goldstein, Fast, and Sig Mejdal's influence on signings, this one feels a little different. It's not Ed Wade taking a flier on Mike Hampton or Russ Ortiz. 

The immediate benefit I see is that Humber has been in the AL since 2008. He has thrown 265IP in the AL in the last two years. He's someone that is presumably intelligent (Rice, after all) who can give the pitching staff pointers on pitching to AL batters. And if he can make 20-25 starts at a decent level, while providing the younger guys time to get some more seasoning, even better.

Update: GUYS. Read this reaction from Lookout Landing.