Thursday Morning Hot Links

Good job, Roggits. Justin Verlander turned in a dominating early performance, the Astros finally got the Big Hit they needed, and Jose Altuve finally hit his first home run of the season. Ken Giles locked it down and the Astros salvaged a win in the series before the off-day. Jexas has the series recap.

*The Astros are 17-9, in 1st place by a 1/2-game over Anaheim. They've scored 5+ runs in six of their last eight games (6-2). We are 16.05% through the season.

*In their last 16 games the Astros have drawn 70 walks - 4.67 BB/game. They've drawn 108 walks through 26 games this season. Houston was at 81 walks through 26 games in 2017. Only the Nationals have more walks this season, with 113.

*Check out Jose Altuve getting the silent treatment:

when you leave work early going through the front door. pic.twitter.com/iyM8BzEZCt

— Calhoun (@linkcalhoun) April 25, 2018

Altuve:
It feels like a dream come true. I was the last guy in the lineup without a homer, and I wanted to get that one out of the way, and I finally did.

Altuve hit his first home run of 2017 on April 22 and by May 22 had seven. I think he'll be okay.

*Alex Bregman collected his first multi-RBI game of the season. He has hits in seven of his last eight games. Bregman:
The guys did a great job getting on base in front of me...When we get people on base we've got to lock it in and come through for the team.

*So Derek Fisher hit a home run on Tuesday night and then Jake Marisnick broke one off himself yesterday. These are the End Times.

*Verlander was dominant, throwing 7IP, 4H/2ER, 9K:0BB. Verlander:
You don't ever want to be the guy starting on the last day of the series and your team is facing a sweep, but my job's to end it. We are tough to sweep because of our pitching matchups, our 1-5, and our rotation. The old adage, 'You're only as good as the next day's starting pitcher,' and I think we like our chances every day.

*By the end of the 4th he had thrown just 38 pitches. He threw 31 pitches in the 4th inning against the White Sox his last time out. While it was his 3rd start (out of six) with 9+ strikeouts, it was his first walk-less start of the season and his first 9K:0BB game since World Series Game 6. He had two such starts in the 2017 regular season.

*Max Stassi has now caught all seven of the Astros' starting pitchers. Hinch:
There's some familiarity that comes with that and his comfort is showing up in how confident he is receiving the ball.

*Do you want a Charlie F. Morton shirt?

Off-Day Playoff Percentage Check

Site	Proj. Rec.	Div%	Playoff%	WS%
FanGraphs	100-62	93.7%	98.1%	22.2%
538	99-63	72.0%	87.0%	15%
BP	95-67	85.6%	94.6%	15%

*The LA Times' Dylan Hernandez says this series - this series in April, this series in April in which the Astros and Angels both scored twelve runs - proves that the Angels are For Real:
They might not finish ahead of the Astros in the American League West, but they are certain to push them. Their victories in Houston were a symbol of the team's resilience and a testament to manager Mike Scioscia's resourcefulness.

It was also a testament to how terrible Joe Smith was on Tuesday, but if you want to interpret that as Geniuscioscia and a key to meaningful baseball in September for Anaheim, okay.

*Over at FanGraphs Jay Jaffe wrote about the Astros eight-game streak of allowing two runs or less, and put it in historical context.

*Missed this from a couple of days ago, but MoiseKapenda Bower brought up this crazy story. In Baseball Prospectus, Matthew Trueblood makes a convincing case that Albert Pujols isn't 38, but rather 40-41 years old.

*In HEADS-UP The Athletic:
-Eno Sarris asks if trying to lift the ball leads to more strikeouts.

*From Jerry Crasnick: How Trevor Bauer set about becoming a better teammate.

*Vice: The Inside Story of Sex Money Murder, NYC's Most Brutally Violent Drug Gang.

Memorial Day Hot Links

The Masked Marvel has your recap of the 13-inning win over the Angels.

*The Astros are 22-29 and have won five of their last six games. They are half a game behind the Angels, seven behind the Mariners, and 7.5 behind the Rangers.

*Memorial Day record, recent memory:
2016: 22-29
2015: 29-17
2014: 20-32
2013: 15-36
2012: 22-27
2011: 20-34
2010: 17-34
2009: 18-26
2008: 29-22
2007: 21-29
2006: 26-26
2005: 18-32
2004: 27-23


*FanGraphs gives them a 16% chance to win the division, a 27.7% chance to make the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight gives them an 18% chance to make the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 23% chance to make the playoffs.

*Carlos Correa: "Best day off ever." It was his first not-solo homer of the season.

*Mike Scioscia:
Mike Morin made one bad pitch, a hanging off-speed pitch to Correa and that was it.

Marisnick, on his first home run since September 2015:
It was an off-speed pitch, and (Tropeano) left it up. Things are definitely better for me lately. A month ago, I would've missed those pitches.

*Well I guess Carlos Gomez will be back tomorrow. Hinch:
I think he's feeling a lot better, which is the No. 1 priority. Getting production out of him is the second phase of this.

*Ryan Braun is "the hot name" in trade rumors, with him being linked to the Astros. Braun is in the first year of a 5yr/$105m extension.

*The Cheatin-Ass Cardinals won't get punished for their cheatin-ass hacking of Ground Control before the draft.
Two sources with knowledge of the commissioner's thinking said it would be "unlikely" that any punishment could be exacted before this coming draft. There isn't time, said one, and the plan has been to wait until after the sentencing.

*Michael Bourn will face the Astros today, after having played in the Braves and Blue Jays organizations already this year.

Before you go:

#Astros Jose Altuve has his 88th career three-hit game. Most in baseball since his debut season in 2011. pic.twitter.com/wr64nxJQbZ

— Ace of MLB Stats (@theaceofspaeder) May 29, 2016

Wednesday Morning Reset

The Astros fell to two games back of the Rangers after Carlos Correa hit a 433-foot double (stupid Tal's Hill) and Evan Gattis came within inches of a walk-off homer, the ball just going foul in the 9th. And also because the A's are completely useless, blowing a 4-1 lead at home to the Ramgers. The Twins also won, so the Astros lost a game to everyone that matters in this race. 

Rangers: -

Astros: -2

Twins: -4

Angels: -4.5

The Astros' playoff odds took a little bit of a tumble, the division odds falling 14% to 27.2% and the playoff odds taking an 8% hit to 80.3%.

The game started out rough for Lance McCullers, surrendering home runs to Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. But it's hard to get mad at a rookie pitcher for giving up jacks to Trout and Pujols. Still, in his first 15 pitches of the game, McCullers is allowing a .293/.374/.505 slash line (I haven't broken it down farther than this, but I'm going to guess you can thank the Rangers and Angels last night for that). 

McCullers settled in after getting down 3-0 in the 1st, retiring 19 of the final 21 batters he faced, hitting David Freese to lead off the 2nd and allowing a 7th inning lead off single to Pujols. The game was really two bad pitches for McCullers...

...and a whole bunch of wasted opportunities for the Astros' offense, who were 0x8 with runners in scoring position. Marwin Gonzalez had runners on 2nd and 3rd with two outs in the 3rd and grounded out; they had Springer at 1st and Altuve at 2nd with nobody out in the 5th and didn't get a run across; Correa was on 2nd after hitting the longest double in major league baseball (just about everybody noted on Twitter last night that next year, when they get rid of Tal's Hill, Correa's knock would have tied the game at 4-4) and the Angels walked Lowrie to get to Gattis, who ripped the walk-off just foul before striking out to end the game. 

The 8th was a weird, characteristically frustrating inning all around. With the Angels leading 3-2, McCullers was lifted after XXX pitches in favor of Chad Qualls, who promptly allowed a double to Chris Iannetta and a dumb infield single to 46-year old David DeJesus that got Iannetta over to third. Erick Aybar did an equally stupid thing in either trying a squeeze play where Iannetta didn't score, or just sac bunted DeJesus to second for the first out. Then Hinch brought in Joe Thatcher, who allowed a bloop single to Kole Calhoun, scoring Iannetta to make it 4-2 and ending Thatcher's night after one batter. Neshek came in, hit Mike Trout, and then got the next two batters to end the threat.

So the Astros come up to bat, now down 4-2 because of an infield single and a bloop single. Loire singled to lead off the inning, Gattis grounded out and moved Lowrie to second. Rasmus pinch-hit for Marwin, and walked, putting runners at 1st and 2nd with one out. Hinch had lefty Preston Tucker up to hit for Chris Carter, and Scioscia changed pitchers, going to the lefty Jose Alvarez. Hinch decided to pull Tucker back in favor of Matt Duffy, who grounded into a fielder's choice, moving Lowrie to 3rd and erasing Rasmus at 2nd. Hinch pulled Castro in favor of Jonathan Villar, and then Scioscia pulled Alvarez in favor of Huston Street. Hinch once again pulled Villar for Valbuena (during whose at-bat Street threw a wild pitch, scoring Lowrie to make it 4-3 Angels), and Valbuena was intentionally walked to get to Marisnick, who struck out swinging to end the inning.

*Hinch:

We had our guys in position. I was happy with how we matched up really all throughout the night. September baseball can get a little bit wacky with six, seven players coming off the bench on each side, but that's the rules we play under.

*Scioscia:

We know how important wins are now. But right now if we keep playing well...we can stay close enough, keep pressuring them. Maybe we can't do it all ourselves and get a little bit of help. But every game is going to be important, no doubt about that.

*McCullers said that the Angels helped him focus from the 2nd-7th innings:

They were chirping at me a lot the whole game. It didn't really get under my skin, but it lit a fire underneath me. I got punched in the mouth early and I really wanted to put forth a great effort for the guys, keep it close and give us a chance to win. But them jabbing at me most of the game kind of fired me up a little bit.

Scioscia, on Correa's "double:"

Oh my God, that ball was killed. This might be the only park that ball is not out of. We caught a break there.

*Luhnow discussed how the Astros are going to approach replacing new Brewers GM David Stearns this off-season.

*Hey whaddayaknow, Carlos Gomez hasn't swung a bat with much effort yet. 

*The Rangers moved Hamels' next start up to Thursday against the A's instead of Friday against the Astros in order to give him three more starts over the remainder of the season, instead of two if he had started Friday. 

*Tom Verducci wrote about how the Astros have stayed in the race.

*Correa's 21st birthday brought his family in from Puerto Rico, and they went to the Breakfast Klub where Correa ate:

...an order of fried chicken and waffles, a banana and pecan pancake, French toast, a side of scrambled eggs mixed with ham, cheese and spinach, orange juice, and water. =

The Politics of Protest

Weird moment in last night's game, huh? Let's set it up for you, in case you weren't able to see the game, or can't bear to watch 54 minutes of Tebow/Lakers talk for no good reason on SportsCenter before they get to the Astros game:

With two outs in the 7th inning and the game tied at 3-3, Bo Porter pulled Paul Clemens and called for Wesley Wright. Mike Scioscia called on Luis Jimenez (instead of J.B. Shuck) to face Wright. Wright threw a few warm-up pitches, and Porter bounced out of the dugout, talked to the umpires, got some sort of confirmation, and then called on Hector Ambriz to come into the game - all without Wright having faced a batter. The rule book says that a pitcher has to face at least one batter before he can be pulled, presumably to prevent forcing a pinch-hitting matchup that the other manager doesn't necessarily want. Which is what happened, because Scioscia then had to bring in Scott Cousins to face Ambriz.

There was weeping, gnashing of teeth, wearing of sackcloth and ashes as another Umpocalypse hit baseball. Scioscia drew a huge "P" with his hand at the official scorer (which, I tried to tell my wife, meant that Scioscia was calling Bo Porter a "penis," and that Porter would have no choice but to challenge him to a duel on Tal's Hill at dawn.)

It didn't matter, because Ambriz couldn't get anybody out in the 8th and blew the game open for the Angels, even despite Brandon Barnes' wonderful sliding catch in CF that only allowed Old Man Pujols to score from 3rd.

Let's try to sort through it, eh?

MLB Official Rulebook: Rule 3.05b

(b) If the pitcher is replaced, the substitute pitcher shall pitch to the batter then at bat,

or any substitute batter, until such batter is put out or reaches first base, or until the
offensive team is put out, unless the substitute pitcher sustains injury or illness
which, in the umpire-in-chief’s judgment, incapacitates him for further play as a
pitcher.

Bo Porter:
Technically, Wesley came in to face the batter that was scheduled to hit, but he pinch-hit for the batter that was scheduled to hit, which my understanding of the rule means you can now bring in another pitcher to face the pinch-hitter.

Scioscia:
My contention was that the pitcher came in, had to face one batter. I protested, and we're happy we won.

Crew Chief Fieldin Culbreth:
The only thing I can tell you is that all matters concerning protests are handled through the league office, and that's all I can tell you.

Scioscia indicated that there was an explanation given as to why Wright was allowed to leave the game, but didn't want to go into it.

The media reaction is basically one of two arguments: (1) Typical, stupid, not transparent umpires! and (2) Bush-league Bo Porter. A few thoughts on this:

*Yeah, umpires have had a rough few days, and I do wish they'd be more open about their poor decisions, rather than hiding behind Joe Torre's trenchcoat (and then Torre hiding behind MLB) before owning up to their mistakes.
*Bo Porter went out and talked to the umpires before bringing in Ambriz. Presumably they didn't talk about candlesticks making a nice gift. Porter seemingly asked for confirmation of what he was about to do, received it, and made the switch to Ambriz. Had Porter just jumped out of the dugout and called for Ambriz, I could see where the SMHing at Porter would come into play. But the umpires seemingly knew exactly what Porter was doing, and allowed it to happen.
*Wait, so you can protest, make it to where there is the possibility of having to restart the game from the point of the protest and then, if you win, say "Nevermind!" and drop it? It would be even more fun if MLB ignored that the Angels dropped their protest, and forced them to restart the game from the 7th.

Scioscia has heard nothing about eliminating divisions

While it may be inevitable that Somebody is moving to the American League, Mike Scioscia (who is on baseball's Special Committee for On-Field Matters) hasn't heard anything about the whole No Division thing:

"I haven't heard anything about eliminating divisions -- I don't think that works. I think divisional play and the geographical rivalries that come with it are important. More teams have opportunities to get to the playoffs in five-team divisions."