Wednesday Morning Hot Links

The Astros put the beat down on the Royals, clinching the 2015 ALDS, 15-6. Some notes:

George Springer was 1x1 with a home run, two walks, and an HBP. He was 1x1 with two walks in Monday's game. This will be a fun 60-game season if George Springer literally does not get out at the plate.

Kyle Tucker, Jack Mayfield, and Abraham Toro had doubles. Springer, Aledmys Diaz, Nick Tanielu, Alex De Goti, and Taylor Jones all hit home runs.

Enoli Paredes threw 2IP, 5H/0ER, 5K:1BB, striking out the side on 11 pitches. Reminder that 24-year old Enoli Paredes struck out 128 batters in 94IP in Fayetteville and Corpus in 2019. Paredes took the opportunity to pitch in Kansas City as an homage to Yordano Ventura. Check this article from Jake Kaplan on Paredes (and Bryan Abreu and Cristian Javier) as one of the potential breakout prospects for Houston in 2020.

Andre Scrubb struck out five batters in 1.2IP, navigating a hit and two walks.

Jojanse Torres threw 1.1IP, 3H/2ER, 0K:5BB.

Astros pitchers walked 11 batters. I know this game doesn't count, I'm trying to get back into mid-season form, but the last time the Astros that many batters in a single game was September 9, 2017, when Houston pitchers walked 13 in an 11-1 loss to Oakland. The last time the Astros walked that many batters and still won was on June 11, 1994 in a 7-6 win over Atlanta. There are only 16 instances in franchise history of 10+ walks and a team win. It's still 16 instances, because this game doesn't count.

Altuve and Bregman were hit by meaningless, unintentional pitches. Sorry to break it to the morons who are using the Astros to take out their frustration about absolutely everything.

*Jose Altuve left the game with a left leg contusion (bruise). Dusty Baker:
We're hopeful he'll be ready on Friday. We'll analyze him tomorrow and see where he is in the morning. Usually the day after that, you're pretty sore.

This is incredibly stupid.

*Josh James was scheduled to start yesterday's game, but the threat of inclement weather in Kansas City kept him in Houston, where he'll throw a simulated game today.

*Monday's lineup is likely going to be Friday's Opening Day lineup, with the notable switch of Bregman and Brantley in the 3-4 spots.

*I guess there are some predictions: Yahoo says Gerrit Cole will win the AL Cy Young (Verlander 2nd), and Lance McCullers may just have his "breakout year."

*Check the Astros' wallpapers available to download.

*Todd Kalas tested positive for COVID and Kevin Eschenfelder will fill in.

*ESPN: A day inside MLB's COVID protocols.

*Jayson Stark: Eight numbers that will define baseball in 2020.

*Congratulations to Alyssa Nakken on becoming the first female 1B coach in MLB history. Related: RIP, Aubrey Huff.

*Outside: The Difference Between Effort and Pain

*Marcelo Bielsa:
Being successful deforms us as human beings, it relaxes us, it plays tricks on us, it makes us worse individuals, it helps us fall in love with ourselves. Failure is the complete opposite, it forms us, it makes us more solid, it brings us closer to our convictions, it makes us more coherent.

*Vox: How Hollywood accidentally built Netflix.

*If you want to follow something super-fun today (Wednesday), check the Championship:

Leeds United has already clinched the League and promotion, but the 2nd-place team also gets automatic promotion. Here's how it stands with the last game of the season starting at 1:30pm Central Wednesday (reminder that the playoffs are 3v6, 4v5 over two legs, where the winners meet in a one-off 90-minute brawl for promotion to the Premier League):

2. West Brom (82 points) vs. Queens Park Rangers (14th place)
3. Brentford (81 points) vs. Barnsley (23rd place)
4. Fulham (80 points) at Wigan (13th place)
5. Nottingham Forest (70 points) vs Stoke City (17th place)
6. Cardiff City (70 points) vs Hull City (24th place)
7. Swansea City (67 points) at Reading (15th place)

*A Musical Selection:



It will get worse.

The Case for Extending Gerrit Cole

While we have a few days before the Astros play again, I thought we could spend a few minutes working through the logistics of one of Crane/Luhnow's biggest offseason decisions: extending Gerrit Cole. This is laid out point by point, the Case for Extending Gerrit Cole:

Argument 1: Because it's not our money.

Argument 2: Because it's Gerrit F. Cole. 

This should not be discounted as a throwaway argument. Gerrit Cole turned 29 years old three weeks ago, so technically 2020 will be Cole's Age 29 season, since he pitched the majority of 2019 at Age 28. If we look at B-Ref's Similarity Scores (scroll down), here are the ten pitchers most similar to Gerrit Cole through Age 27 (I guess B-Ref only updates these once a year):

1. Kevin Millwood

2. Cole Hamels

3. Dennis Leonard

4. Stephen Strasburg

5. Doug Drabek

6. Josh Beckett

7. Jered Weaver

8. David Price

9. Johnny Cueto

10. Ron Darling

There's not a ton to inspire confidence there. Hamels is...Hamels. Strasburg, sure. At some point I'll write a post on who the hell Dennis Leonard is, but after you've seen what has happened to David Price, do you want to commit $200m+ to that? Aha! But there are two stories here, because there are two phases of Gerrit Cole: Pre-Houston and With-Houston Gerrit Cole.

Pittsburgh Cole: 127 starts, 782.1IP, 749H/304ER, 734K:203BB, 67HR, 3.50 ERA / 1.22 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 15.4 fWAR

Houston Cole: 65 starts, 412.2IP, 285H/123ER, 602K:112BB, 48HR, 2.68 ERA / 0.96 WHIP, 164 ERA+, 13.4 fWAR.

That's right. Houston Gerrit Cole has been almost as valuable in just over half the starts as Pittsburgh Gerrit Cole. He's a different pitcher. The strikeouts have been discussed ad nauseum and, while the stikeouts are a perfectly valid part of the story, it doesn't tell all of it. With Houston, Cole went from an above average pitcher - certainly worthy of a 1-1 pick - to a Hall of Fame pitcher. 

Consider that Cole has been worth 13.4 fWAR over the last two seasons. Here is the two-year peak in fWAR for members of Cole's "Similar Pitchers" list:

Dennis Leonard (1977-1978): 12.6

David Price (2014-2015): 12.3

Jered Weaver (2010-2011): 11.3

Josh Beckett (2007-2008): 10.0

Cole Hamels (2011-2012): 9.7

Kevin Millwood (1999-2000): 9.5

Johnny Cueto (2015-2016): 9.0

Doug Drabek (1992-1993): 8.9

Stephen Strasburg (2015-2016): 8.0

Ron Darling (1985-1986): 5.3

Two things: (1) Dennis Leonard? I retract my earlier slander. (2) Ron Darling benefited the most from being on a team that probably shouldn't have won a World Series. (Bonus): Stephen Strasburg? Maybe not worth the hype?

So, the point of this is saying Gerrit Cole is basically unbelievable. He has thrown 200+ IP in three straight seasons. His K/9 has increased from 8.7 in his last season in Pittsburgh to 12.4 in 2018 to 13.8 in 2019. 

3. The Competitive Window of the American League:

Who is good right now? List them:

The Astros, the Yankees, the Twins, the A's, the Rays. Hey wow that's all the playoff teams from this year. Maybe you could slot Cleveland in here. 

Next tier: Cleveland (?), Boston? 

Further along in their rebuild: Toronto, Chicago, Arlington (?), Anaheim (?)

Gonna be a while: Baltimore, Kansas City, Seattle, Detroit

Point being that the Astros have a wide-open window to dominate the American League for the next few years, and extending Gerrit Cole throws that window open. The Yankees won't be hurt forever, I don't think. Oakland will literally run 25 Mormon missionaries out there for 162 games and still win 92 of them. So when the Astros have to take a step back once Verlander and Greinke retire and Correa does [waves hands] whatever he will do, and Brantley and Reddick move along, there's still Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, and...Gerrit Cole, and you probably have another few division titles, pennants, and who knows about World Series banners. Which leads to Point...

4. The Astros need a couple of years to develop their pitching prospects at lower levels.

With the Greinke trade, the Astros sent a couple of pitchers they were maybe counting on to contribute earlier to Arizona in Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas. It doesn't matter that Martin won't pitch until late 2020 and Bukauskas has been an absolute roller-coaster over his entire career.

So who's left? Here's the last year the Astros have their current starting pitching staff:

Miley: November

Verlander: 2021

Greinke: 2021

McCullers: 2022

On the other hand, the Astros have the following solid pitching prospects who just need some time: Jose Urquidy (not as much time needed, obviously), Forrest Whitley, Cristian Javier, Brett Conine, Jojanse Torres, Brett Daniels. Will they all pan out? Perhaps not, but having 2020-2021 with Verlander, Cole, Greinke, and McCullers will help the Astros keep the window open while they figure out who can stick. 

It's worth it to me, because it's not my money that's being spent (and I distinctly remember the $26m Opening Day Payroll year), to extend Gerrit Cole. He's clearly the best pending free agent, the Astros have shown a willingness to extend their players (Altuve, Bregman, Verlander). Signing Cole to an extension means he doesn't go through what Keuchel or Kimbrel, or Machado or Harper went through last offseason. And extending Gerrit Cole means he doesn't go to any other team, those of whom are deemed threats to a dynasty the likes of which have not been seen since the 1990s Yankees. 

Saturday Morning Hot Links

The Astros won the 2015 ALDS with a 4-1 win over Kansas City last night, in the Year of Our Lord 2019. God bless us, everyone. Houston overcame the impossible odds that Danny Duffy presented to honor their city. Houston is 96-53. Mercifully, there are 13 regular season games remaining. This game was way more stupid than necessary. I'm tired.

Houston is 40-33 on the road. 2019 will be the first season since 2016 that Houston won more home games than road games.

Scoreboard Watching:
Houston won, New York lost, Los Angeles won. So:

Jankees (97-52): -
Astros (96-53): +1.0
Dodgers (96-53): +1.0

*Gerrit Cole: 8IP, 4H/1R (0ER), 11K:2BB. It's his 13th Win in a row, the longest streak in a single season since Stephen Strasburg in 2013. Done this before, but it's still remarkable:

Gerrit Cole with Pittsburgh (127 starts): Six 10+ K starts (4.7%)
Gerrit Cole with Houston (62 starts): 26 10+ K starts (41.9%)

Gerrit Cole is at 292 strikeouts for the season, and is almost guaranteed to hit 300 strikeouts.

Got Dang Danny Duffy: 6IP, 4H/1ER, 6K:2BB.

Danny Duffy vs Houston, 2019: 10.2IP, 9H/3ER, 8K:5BB. 2.53 ERA / 1.31 WHIP.
Danny Duffy vs Everyone Else: 106IP, 108H/57ER, 93K:38BB. 4.84 ERA / 1.37 WHIP.

*George Springer's game-winning home run was hit 114.3mph off the bat, the highest velocity by the Astros this season. Chandler Rome: How Altuve settled George Springer down before his HR. It was Springer's 35th home run of the season, making he and Bregman the Astros' second pair of teammates to hit 35HR in a season, joining Berkman and Richard Hidalgo in 2000. Hinch:
George Springer is one swing away from having a great day every day. He hangs in there as well as anyone. He did have a tough night leading up to that point.

*Jose Altuve's 28th home run breaks the record for Astros 2Bs in a season. The Top 5:

1. Altuve: 28 (2019)
2. Jeff Kent: 27 (2004)
3. Craig Biggio: 26 (2005)
4. Altuve: 24 (2017)
5. Altuve: 24 (2016)

*Astros home run leaders:

1. Alex Bregman - 35
2. George Springer - 35
3. Jose Altuve - 28
4. Yuli Gurriel - 27
5. Yordan Alvarez - 24

The Astros have only ever had three players hit 30+ home runs in a season (Berkman, Hidalgo, Alou in 2000).

*Yuli Gurriel was back in the lineup for last night's game and went 0x5. It's the 8th 0x5 of his career.

*Kyle Tucker was 1x4, but was super-unlucky twice.

*Carlos Correa went 1x2 with 2K:2BB last night for Round Rock, who allowed three Sacramento runs in the top of the 8th to lose 7-5, and complete the sweep in the PCL Championship Series. Taylor Jones was 2x4 with a 2-run homer and 3RBI.

*Fayetteville got held to three hits and um zero runs as Wilmington forced a Game 5 (today) in the Carolina League Championship. Keep an eye on this Jojanse Torres fella: 6IP, 3H/1ER, 6K:2BB. He did not deserve the loss.

Torres, 2019 (regular season): 94.2IP, 59H/18ER, 107K:46BB. 1.71 ERA / 1.11 WHIP.

*Brad Peacock now has nerves of steel after the Astros' medical staff figured out that Peacock's shoulder issues stemmed from nerve issues in his neck, which they have apparently now fixed. He threw a pain-free 20-pitch bullpen before Friday's game. The Astros want two more bullpens before deploying the (Pea)Cock.

*Martin Maldonado is Gerrit Cole's personal catcher. Chandler Rome tells you why. Heads up: It's the running game.

*Sports Illustrated: Can any offense get through Verlander-Cole-Greinke twice in a series?

*Jake Kaplan: Could Jose Urquidy or Bryan Abreu push for postseason roster spots?

*Hinch, on Zack Greinke:
It's kind of a match made in analytical heaven. He's an analytical mind and a super prepared pitcher combined with an organization that leaves no stone unturned when it comes to trying to bring out the best in guys.

*Straight Baseball Porn from FanGraphs: You're probably underrating Yordan Alvarez. Ben Clemens:
Here's a random, tossed-off statistic for you. When Alvarez pulls the ball in the air, he bats .868 with a 2.421 slugging percentage. Percentage doesn't make much sense for a number like 2.421, but nothing about Alvarez's production does. That's good for a 768 wRC+, best in the majors by 103 points...[If you] picture Avarez as the most recent incarnation of Dave Kingman or Joey Gallo, you've left something out. Alvarez has the raw power of those guys, but he's getting to all that pop without the tradeoffs they have to make.

*Gerrit Cole is MLB.com's #1 free agent for 2020. I want Gerrit Cole as an Astro until 2023 at the earliest.

*Despite being a complete ninnymuggins during the 2019 season, Forrest Whitley (who has slipped to the #16 prospect in MLB) is still the Astros' top prospect in the Arizona Fall League. A recap of Whitley's 2019 season:

Spring Training: Justin Verlander is Whitley's mentor.
March 12: Whitley gets reassigned to minor-league camp. Hinch said of Whitley, "He can out-stuff a lot of hitters and can get away with mistakes at various levels he's been at. Perfecting his execution at a level that is major-league quality is something that separates him now from where he's going to be in a short time."
March 17: Hinch: "Whitley's been really impressive...He's mature beyond his years."
March 24: Whitley starts for Houston in a Spring Training tune-up at Minute Maid Park against Pittsburgh. He throws 3IP, 6H/3ER, 2K:1BB.
March 30: MLB.com lists Whitley as their 2019 Impact Call-Up: "MLB Pipeline's top-ranked pitching prospect will start the season in the Minors but could be up by midseason, perhaps even earlier should an opening arise in Houston's starting rotation."
April 9: In his season debut for Round Rock, Whitley throws 5IP, 4H/2ER, 7K:1BB.
April 15: Whitley: 1.1IP, 4H/5ER, 1K:2BB.
April 16: Jake Kaplan leads an article with "If Forrest Whitley stays healthy, his ascent to the Majors this season isn't a question of If but When" and then details how the Astros plan to manage his workload in 2019.
April 21: Whitley bounces back with 4.2IP, 2H/1ER, 5K:2BB.
Over two starts from April 28-May 3, Whitley: 3.2IP, 8H/9ER, 6K:2BB.
May 16: SI's Jon Tayler says Whitley could make his Houston debut mid-season 2019.
May 23: Whitley vs. San Antonio: 2IP, 6H/7ER, 1K:3BB.
May 24: Luhnow mentions Whitley might be hurt, but they'll look into it.
May 29: Whitley placed on Minor-League IL with "shoulder fatigue."
July 12: Whitley makes his GCL debut, throwing 1.2IP, 1H/3ER, 5K:3BB
July 19: Whitley's line for the GCL Astros: 2.2IP, 2H/1ER, 5K:6BB.
July 22: Astros announce that Whitley will pitch for High-A Fayetteville.
July 24: Whitley debuts for Fayetteville and throws 3.1IP, 3H/2ER, 2K:1BB.
July 30: Whitley for Fayetteville: 5IP, 1H/0ER, 9K:0BB.
August 4: Whitley debuts for Corpus: 4IP, 2H/1ER, 5K:2BB.
August 11: Luhnow won't rule out Whitley making his MLB debut in 2019, but that he'd have to "prove he could help us."
August 10-22: Whitley's three starts: 11.1IP, 10H/10ER, 20K:12BB.
August 27: Astros announce Whitley will pitch in the Arizona Fall League, not the playoffs.

My theory, and it is just a theory: Whitley was the #1 pitching prospect coming out of Spring Training, mentored by Justin Verlander. A variety of issues, from the Triple-A baseballs being juiced combined with a lack of success, combined with getting mentored by Justin F. Verlander within the previous two months got in his head, and Whitley has zero mental game. He was hearing all the "Houston by July" talk and was offended every time someone squibbed a single (Notable: HR allowed at Triple-A: Nine in 24.1IP ; Homeruns allowed everywhere else: Two in 35.1IP.) TL;DR: Whitley got butthurt and cost himself a season. Figure it out in Arizona while the Astros try to win another World Series and reflect upon what you've done.

*Here's a cool audio interview with Fayetteville PxP Guy Matt Sabados (whom I desperately want to call Matt Sebadoh) and Jeff Luhnow on minor-league trade candidates and international prospects.

*FanGraphs' Tony Wolfe: It sure seems like Dallas Keuchel was worth the investment.

*SI checks up on Tony Mellows, better known as Justin Verlander the Baseball Brit.

*Could the Diamondbacks relocate to Vegas?

*ESPN: The grandmaster diet: how to lose weight while barely moving.

*The Guardian: The race to create a perfect lie detector - and the dangers of succeeding.

*A Musical Selection:

Friday Morning Hot Links

Hey it's your pal James here. Sorry for my caterwauling yesterday, but it was necessary. Anyway, I'm giving Flick a three-day reprieve from the Blogging Conclave. The Astros did not play last night. They are 29-15. Earlier this week I won Whataburger from a co-worker because the Astros swept the Rangers (if the Rangers had split or won the series, I would have been buying). Today is the beginning of the second of three bets with the same co-worker: if the Rangers are ten games behind the Astros at any point after May 17, he buys Whataburger. Houston is 8.5 up on Arlington. Third bet: the Astros will finish 25.0+ games ahead of the Rangers. I love making bets with Dallas homerz who barely watch baseball.

*A side story that I also put on Twitter last night: On the day our daughter was born, we gave her a little stuffed lamb that she eventually named Bob. She carried Bob with her wherever she went. About three years ago, my wife was away for the weekend and my daughter and I made a Whole Thing about it: baseball game, ice cream, museum trips, etc. When that weekend was over, we noticed we didn't know where Bob was. It was An Ordeal. Ultimately, I was able to get a Replacement Bob from Amazon, but it wasn't the same. One night, my dear wife told me that she wished I would have told her that I cheated on her rather than Bob getting lost under my watch. I felt the predictable Shame, but I knew I didn't lose Bob. Fast forward three years to last night. Daughter comes into the living room after brushing her teeth and says, "Bob looks weird." And he did! He looked like he needed to get thrown in the washing machine. Then she says, "Why is he different from the Bob in bed?" And I yelled, "There's another Bob in bed?" And she looks at me like I'm crazy and says, in the way that only she can, "Yeah." So I sprint to her bedroom (not a good idea: my knee still hurts from that half-marathon) and, sure enough, there's the Newer Bob. I sprint back into the living room and she's holding Janky Bob. I ask, "Where did you find him?" And she says, "Oh for the life of me I can't remember." She's six years old, talking like she's in a got dang Danielle Steele novel. She has no idea where she was when she came across the Actual Bob, but by God, he's back. Skros gonna win the World Series this year. Bob has made it so. #WorldSeriesBob

*Off-Day Playoff Odds Check!

FanGraphs (101-61): 99.2% to win the division, 99.5% to make the playoffs. 21.5% to win the World Series.

FiveThirtyEight (103-59): 95% to win the division, 97% to make the playoffs. 22% to win the World Series.

Baseball Prospectus (99-63): 98.1% to win the division, 98.9% to make the playoffs. 20.9% to win the World Series.

*Yesterday I wrote up how the Astros' bottom of the order is producing in historic fashion (just not *as historic* as the 2019 Twins' bottom of the order, which is kind of a bummer. Also the 2019 Astros are out-pacing the 1927 Yankees from top-to-bottom. Good day.) The Athletic didn't want it, so here you have it for free.

Three hours later, Chandler Rome posted an article indicating the exact same thing, but with Access.

*Check out Chandler Rome's Mailbag.

*Richard Justice: How George Springer became the "heart and soul" of the Houston Astros. Jake Kaplan has a great piece about why Springer has gotten more starts at DH in 2019 than he did in all of 2018.

*Jon Tayler says Forrest Whitley, who has really struggled in Round Rock so far, could make his Houston rotation debut around mid-season.

*Yeah the balls are different but Yordan Alvarez was 3x6 with 6RBI last night for Round Rock with two home runs and a double. He's hitting .410/.497/.903 with 30K:22BB. Take that for what you will. He will be 22 at the end of June, and the Astros got him for Josh Fields. A scout Peter Gammons knows mentioned "David Ortiz" when talking about Yordan.

#Astros' Yordan Alvarez leads all of MiLB with:
🔸17 HR
🔸53 RBI
🔸36 R
🔸32 XBH
🔸.903 SLG
🔸.497 OBP
Oh yea, and he ranks 2nd with a .410 AVG.

📰: https://t.co/RHYcMxMuhX pic.twitter.com/4uLYKOPuy1

— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) May 17, 2019

*MLB.com's Jason Beck says it's way too soon to determine who won the Verlander trade. (Hint: it's the Astros).

*In this SI 3-up 3-down column, the Astros look good.

*The Ellen DeGeneres Show asks this question:
Are you [an Astros] fan who lives in the Houston area, and could use help from Ellen? We want to hear your story! Share your personal story of why you think you deserve financial help, tickets to your favorite MLB game (Let's Go Astros!) and more. Tell us your story here!

While I could use some financial help [side-eyes The Athletic] I don't live in the Houston area, and also there are many more who are deserving than I am. So have at it. Make some dreams come true.

*After hitting .328/.414/.602 for Fayetteville, Seth Beer got promoted to Corpus.

*Need another Astros shirt from BreakingT?

*Quad Cities beat Peoria 21-1. River Bandits' 2-5: 11x19, two doubles and three home runs. Jeremy Pena (3rd Round, 2018) went 3x5 with two walks, a double, triple, a home run, and 6RBI. Scott Schreiber (9th Round, 2018) went 3x4 with 1K:3BB. Marty Costes (22nd Round, 2018) went 3x4 with two walks, a double, a home run, and 7RBI.

Pitcher Jojanse Torres went 5IP, 2H/1ER, 7K:0BB - the solo home run he allowed was the first earned run he has allowed in 16IP this season, and he has 26 K:8BB in 16IP.

*Former Astros Great Teoscar Hernandez got optioned to Triple-A Buffalo, after hitting .189/.262/.299 with an almost-30% K-rate.

*Not-paywalled article from Craig Goldstein: On the end of the beginning of baseball season.

*The Marlins are basically MLB-sanctioned organized crime.

*Tyler Kepner: The Rays are a surrealist's delight.

*The Orioles had their Buttslide moment.

*The Square Ball, on Leeds' defeat to Derby, and the defeat which comes for us all.

*Complete Whack-Job/Absolute Delight Mike Leach teaches a class at Washington State called Leadership Lessons in Insurgent Warfare and Football Strategies. One assignment was to draw up some plays. Mike Leach graded them.

*Eater: The Myth of Authenticity is Killing Tex-Mex.

*Drew Magary: The Night the Lights Went Out

*A Musical Selection:



The Hot Links playlist on Spotify now contains almost seven hours of music, if you're into the kind of music I like.