MLB/NPB agree to deal

No, the Astros wouldn't automatically get Tanaka if they pay a $20m posting fee. The Japan Times says that MLB and NPB have agreed to a maximum bid for posted players, but the player would not automatically go to the team with the lowest winning percentage. See the following:

If multiple clubs willing to pay $20M, Japanese player can negotiate with all of them. Only the signing team will be required to pay $20M.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 5, 2013

For our purposes, that sucks. We're just assuming that Tanaka wouldn't pick the Astros and maybe that's the safest way to think about it, from an emotional standpoint. But don't rule out the sell job Luhnow & Co. could put on Tanaka. The Astros have money to spend and (presumably) payroll flexibility. That the $20m max bid is now in place, if the Astros were even in on Tanaka to begin with (and I can't think of a reason in which they would not), given that he was expected to command at least as much as Yu Darvish's $51m bid, they now have a whole lot more money to play with.

NPB Posting Update

Via MLBTR, we learn that NPB (Japanese league) officials are planning to accept the new posting rules for Japanese players coming to MLB.

Among those guidelines is a maximum bid of $20m for a posted player. The LA Times' Bill Shaikin wrote this week that the posted player could choose from teams that met the maximum bid. There has been a conflicting report (now endorsed by Jim Bowden) that the player would automatically go to the team with the lowest winning percentage.

There are clearly still some things to be worked out. But if things go the way they look like they've been going for the last 30 minutes, Masahiro Tanaka-to-Houston is a very real possibility.

Update: Dylan Hernandez makes a special note that Rakuten Golden Eagles did not vote for this new system (of course, because they'd lose out on about $30m). Ultimately, they could decide not to post Tanaka, and the story is over. But that wouldn't make any sense, because if NPB accepts the $20m max bid, that's the most they can allow. It makes sense for the other NPB owners to override Rakuten's owner (who is apparently loaded) in order to limit how much revenue comes in to a rival team. But it'll be interesting to see if Rakuten even posts Tanaka in the first place.

There are so many interested parties/potentially pissed off parties that this story is fascinating. 

Astros might get Tanaka anyway

This, from Dylan Hernandez:

Sponichi: MLB proposing posting-fee limit for Japanese players. If multiple teams submit max bid, player goes to team with worst record.
— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 2, 2013

Now, Sponichi is a Japanese newspaper, so this is just a report, although that the proposal reportedly comes from MLB is interesting. But holy crap this would be huge for the Astros, because they could simply offer the maximum bid for Masahiro Tanaka and simply by default of being God-awful in 2013, automatically win the bid. They'd have to sign him to a contract, so it's not as though it would be a slam-dunk, but if report is true (and it gets approved by everybody involved), then the Rangers wouldn't just be able to swoop in with $900 gajillion and win.