Astros Trade For Former Mets Great

The Astros traded Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford for Justin Verlander. Perhaps you've heard of him.

Verlander is owed the remainder of his contract for 2023, which is about $14.7m, and he has another guaranteed $43.3m due in 2024. If he throws 140IP in 2024, a $35m option vests for 2025. The Mets will pay $35m to cover 2023-24, and half of 2025 if the contract vests. Essentially, the Astros added Justin Verlander to the rotation for the next 2+ seasons for a total of $40.5m. That's why both Gilbert and Clifford went to New York. 

Verlander started the season on the IL and didn't return to the rotation until May 4. His first eight starts of the season were rough: 39IP, 39H/21ER, 33K:13BB, 7HR allowed, 4.85 ERA / 1.33 WHIP. Opponents had a .767 OPS on a .283 BABIP. 14% of his strikes were looking, just 9% swinging. 

In his last eight starts, however, a different story emerges: 49.1IP, 35H/11ER, 42K:18BB, 2HR allowed, 2.01 ERA / 1.07 WHIP. Opponents with a .531 OPS on a .241 BABIP (his career BABIP is .279). 18% of his strikes were looking, 10% swinging. 

Joe Perez was DFA'd to make room for Verlander.

ESPN gave the trade an A.

It is extremely easy (yet also valid) to just say, "The Astros could have just paid Verlander last off-season and then you hold on to your top two prospects." And you're right. But while McCullers pitching 0.0IP in 2023 was certainly foreseeable, you probably wouldn't have thought that both Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy would miss significant amounts of time. Verlander is now an Astro through all of Garcia's rehab, and Urquidy will be back any day now, and Steve Cohen essentially financed his return (at the cost of Gilbert and Clifford). 

Every Verlander start from this point forward means less innings thrown by Brandon Bielak or Ronel Blanco, both of whom performed admirably but were a little underwater with their peripherals - Bielak with a 3.74 WHIP underlied by a 5.27 FIP; Blanco with a 4.70 ERA and a 6.27 FIP. Verlander, with the addition of Kendall Graveman, also play a domino effect on the bullpen. Graveman can help give Maton, Abreu, and Pressly more time off. Verlander has also recorded at least 18 outs in six of his last eight starts, shortening the game for the bullpen. 

The rotation had been Framber, Javier, Brown, Bielak, and France. Now, or soon, anyway, it can be Verlander, Urquidy, Framber, Javier, Brown/Bielak/France, whatever it takes to get them to the end of the season and prepare for 2024. Innings total, 2022-2023 (I know the Verducci Effect is BS, but it's still worth noting workload):

Brown: 126.1IP in 2022, 111IP in 2023

France: 110.2IP in 2022, 111IP in 2023

Bielak: 101IP in 2022, 100.1IP in 2023

Not to mention that Verlander is a frontline postseason arm, giving the Astros a 1-2-3 of Framber, Verlander, and Javier (assuming that Framber and Javier aren't broken in October...and just save your jokes about World Series Verlander.) Verlander missed the first six weeks of the season, and we all kinda hope the Astros' 2023 season lasts an extra, I don't know, four weeks? Might be fine. 

Ultimately, Verlander was a move the Astros didn't think they needed to make in December, but by August they couldn't not make it. Things change, Mox. Take the money the Mets are paying Verlander and extend Kyle Tucker right tf now, seeing as he doesn't have the two top prospects in the organization "breathing" down his "neck." 

Yes, you can talk yourself into being upset about losing Gilbert and Clifford, but might I remind you of the Can't-Miss existence of "Brett Wallace" and how no prospect is a sure thing, but also mention the fact that Verlander will start for the Astros in Yankee Stadium this weekend. We're in the closing stages of a dynasty here. Milk that shit for as many rings as you can. Oh, and hey, guess what: the Astros just drafted 20 guys like three weeks ago. 19 of them signed. Next year they'll draft 20 more. 

FanGraphs does a good job at what has changed mechanically for Verlander in his all-too-short time with the Mets. 

*So, to recap: The Astros got Verlander and Graveman. The Rangers got Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, and Austin Hedges. It'll be nice to watch a little division race in September and not, you know, have it wrapped up already. 

*Astros Division/Playoff/Pennant/World Series Odds, FanGraphs:

Opening Day: 53.4% to win division, 79% to make postseason, 18.5% to win AL, 9% to win WS.

Memorial Day: 46.3% to win division, 80.8% to make postseason, 18.9% to win AL, 9.5% to win WS.

All-Star Break: 43.3% to win division, 66.4% to make postseason, 13.7% to win AL, 5.6% to win WS.

Today: 58.7% to win division, 85.1% to make postseason, 23.6% to win AL, 11.9% to win WS.

*The Verlander trade came together when the Astros saw how much money the Mets were sending to Las Colinas for Scherzer. And I hope you love having Maldonado in the lineup.

*The Astros were also in on Brooks "Who Really Won the 2020 election" Raley, but nothing came of it. Obviously.

*MLB: Pros and Cons of nine top trade deadline candidates (yeah, Verlander is in here). 

*Jim Crane told media that they were interested in both Snell and Hader from San Diego, but the Padres are run by three raccoons in a trench coat.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

The offense bailed Cristian Javier out as the Astros evened up the series in St. Louis with a 10-7 win. Houston is 43-37 to stay six games back of Upper Joshua, tied with Anaheim in second place. Houston is 4-8 in their last twelve games.

*Last night was the 5th time the Astros have scored double-digit runs. They're 0-4 in the games following a 10+ run outburst.

*The Astros hit two home runs (Altuve, Abreu). They're 17-7 when they hit multiple home runs in a game. Games with the following number of home runs, 2023:

0HR: 24

1HR: 32

2HR: 19

3HR: 1

4HR: 2

5HR: 1

7HR: 1

*Houston drew eight walks for the 6th time this season. Houston is 9-2 when they draw 6+ walks in a game.

*Jose Altuve was 2x3 with a home run and three walks - just his second home run since May 30. It was his first 3BB game since September 7, 2022. Altuve is now at 196 home runs in his career.

Altuve:

I know I've been hurt quite a bit this year, and I'm really trying to stay healthy on the field and play to help this team to win. The days I had off, I was doing a lot of homework, trying to get back to where I want to be with my swing and my timing.

*Kyle Tucker was 3x5 with two doubles - his first multi-XBH game since June 1. Tucker now has more RBI (44) than strikeouts (43) in 2023.

*Jose Abreu was 2x4 with 3RBI. Abreu now has four 3RBI games, and all of them have come in the last 19 days. Abreu, June 2023: .292/.305/.517. Abreu had eight extra-base hits from March-May (225 PAs) and ten extra-base hits in June (95 PAs).

*Congratulations to Bligh Madris, who got his first two hits as an Astro.

*Jake Meyers was 0x2, but scored twice as he drew three walks, a career-high. Meyers had one game with multiple walks in 2021-22, and five such games in 2023. 

*Cristian Javier struggled again: 4IP, 8H/6ER, 1K:1BB, 2HR. His fastball sat around 93mph.

Javier's first 14 games of 2023: 80.2IP, 65H/26ER, 76K:19BB, 2.90 ERA.

Javier's last two starts: 6.1IP, 12H/10ER, 2K:6BB, 14.21 ERA.  

*Yordan Alvarez hit off a tee yesterday, Michael Brantley hit in the cage, and Jose Urquidy is feeling good.

*GM Dana Brown plans to be aggressive but smart at the trade deadline. On possibly trading Drew Gilbert:

He would be untouchable in a rental. If we can acquire someone that has some more time on their deal, that's a different story. We're not going to be in the business of throwing away our top prospects for rentals.

*Jeremy Pena finds echoes of his father's career in St. Louis.

*Chandler Rome: Korey Lee could be the catcher of the future...but for what team?

*Domingo German threw the fourth perfect game in Yankees history against Oakland last night, and the first perfect game since Felix Hernandez in 2012. 

*ESPN: From a cricket field to the top of the MLB draft, Arjun Nimmala's journey is wild.

*Jesus Ferreira had a hat trick as the USMNT beat St. Kitts AND Nevis in the Gold Cup last night.

*With pre-season training camp starting next week, Leeds United appear to be on the verge of hiring Daniel Farke.

*A Musical Selection:

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

And a happy DJ Screw Day (and Yordan Birthday Day) to those of you who celebrate. The Astros were off last night, thanks be to God, and start a series in St. Louis tonight with Framber on the mound. Looking to give the bullpen two days off, Framber...

*Off-Day Playoff Odds:

FanGraphs: 26.7% to win AL West, 53.8% to make the playoffs.

B-Ref: 19.4% to win AL West, 61.2% to make the playoffs.

*Last 30 games, AL:

18-12: Tampa

17-13: Baltimore, Crowley, Toronto

16-14: Anaheim, Cleveland

15-15: New York, Seattle

14-16: Houston, Boston, Minnesota, Chicago

12-18: Detroit

10-20: Oakland

8-22: Kansas City

*At 40-40 the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins are a half-game better than the AL East basement Boston Red Sox. 

*Check out the newest Ep. 203 of Lima Time Time!

*Drew Gilbert is headed to the MLB Futures Game. Chandler Rome: Why Drew Gilbert needed to struggle for the last month.

*There are 0 Astros on the updated MLB.com Top 100 Prospects list.

*Wired: Wanna scratch that travel itch? Try YouTube.

*British grime rapper Stormzy has teamed up with Wilfried Zaha to buy AFC Croydon.

*A Musical Selection:

Thursday Morning Hot Links

Well that got weird. The Astros were cruising comfortably - a 96.9% win probability as the 9th Inning opened. Then a couple of throwing errors later it was 4-4. Chaos reigned in the bottom of the 9th (the best time for chaos to reign imo) and the Astros win 5-4. At 39-29, Houston is once again 10 games over .500. Richardson won, so the Astros remain 3.5 back in the division.

*Nationals manager Dave Martinez was Big Mad following the game, in which he held up a screen grab of the camera shot like it was a proof of life video from a terrorist bunker of Jake Meyers on the basepath, presumably because he wasn't on it. Martinez:

There it is right there. Take a look at it. Is that on the line? I don't think so. I'm over this play. Seriously. They need to fix the rule. If this is what the umpire sees that he's running down the line, I'm tired of it. I'm tired of it. Fix it. We lost the game, and he had nothing to say about it because he can't make the right call. Brutal.

Dusty:

I think they were disputing whether he was in the baseline or not. That's always a questionable call. Nobody really has the vantage point very good except really the home plate umpire, and he said it was nothing. 

Meyers, eloquently:

I'm not really sure, but I know we scored, and we won. That's good.

You can watch Martinez's Meltdown in full here.

*McTaggart noted the similarities between last night and 2019 World Series Game 6.

*The Astros have won three of their last four following the season-high four-game losing streak.

*Houston is 7-7 in 1-run games this year. 

*Astros pitchers didn't issue a single walk for just the 5th time this season. They're 4-1 in those games. The starting pitcher in all five of those games? Framber Valdez.

*Framber threw extremely well: 7IP, 5H/1ER, 6K:0BB. Framber's last eight starts: 52IP, 37H/12ER, 58K:12BB. 2.08 ERA / 0.94 WHIP.

*Jose Abreu was 3x4 with a home run and a double. On May 27 Abreu's OPS sat at a paltry .519. Since then (16 games), he's hitting .295/.348/.541. He has five hits in his last seven PAs, and multi-hit games in five of his last six games. Last night was Abreu's 3rd 3RBI game, all of which have come since June 9.

Meat Wagon Updates:

*Well the big news of the day, other than Keibert Ruiz's throwing ability, is that Lance McCullers Jr is officially out for the year, having undergone surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm and remove a "lima bean-sized bone spur," which he injured during 2021 ALDS Game 4. That game was played on October 12, 2021...611 days before having surgery.

Dana Brown addressed what the news means for the Astros' activity at the trade deadline, noting that he's looking more at hitting, particularly a lefty bat.

Dusty:

You hate seeing anybody hurt, especially hurt a second time. From what I've talked to the trainers and the doctore, he has a chance to be back as good as new. If anybody can come back, it's Lance because he's in great shape and works his butt off. I'm sure it's a little bit of a downer, but he knew something was wrong.

Lance will not throw a baseball until November and it's unclear when, exactly, in 2024 he'll return. Chandler Rome put McCullers' injury history into some perspective.

*Yordan Alvarez will be out for at least a month with his bad oblique, which he injured during BP...and then proceeded to play in the game, lasting one PA. Seems like a dumb decision to let him play that game. Yordan will be re-evaluated in two weeks, and then three.

Here's who the Astros play in the next month: vs Cincinnati, vs NY Mets, at LA Dodgers, at St. Louis, at Lewisville, vs Colorado, vs Seattle, All-Star Break. Not having Yordan for four at Six Flags over Texas is not ideal. 

*Jeremy Pena should be back in the lineup today, having last played on June 10, presumably down with the sickness

*Check out Chandler Rome's Notes column, in which he addresses Jose Abreu's batting tweaks, Drew Gilbert's not great start at Corpus (plot twist: his elbow hurts), and more.

*ESPN: How the A's and Raiders' relocations to Vegas compare.

*The USMNT plays Mexico tonight at 9pm Central in the CONCACAF Nations League Semi-Final (I think).

*RIP Gordon McQueen.

*Last night (with the Astros game on the laptop on mute) The Wife and I watched the 2013 movie "The World's End," which I had never seen, but very much enjoyed.

*UT will play A&M at Kyle Field in 2024.

*A Musical Selection:

Saturday Morning Hot Links

There will be no Hot Links tomorrow (Sunday) as I will be returning from a wedding in which I've spoken maybe six words to the bride and have never met the groom. Things are great. The Astros beat the Angels 6-2 to improve to 34-23. The Rangers obviously won again so Houston is still 2.5 back. Houston goes to South Ardmore July 1-3. 

*Houston is 6-2 in their last eight games and have won 17 of their last 22 games.

*Anaheim is 13-30 against Houston since the beginning of the 2021 season.

*Yordan Alvarez hit a two-run home run in the 1st Inning to bring him to 50 RBI in 2023, in his 51st game (the 57th game of the Astros season). After 51 games, 2006 Lance Berkman was at 46 RBI.

*Chas McCormick went 3x4 - his first three-hit game since October 5, 2022.

*Corey Julks hit his 4th home run of the season, and the first one that featured a runner on base when it happened.

*Kyle Tucker was 2x4 with a double and an RBI. He's 5x8 with three doubles in these last two games against the Angels. 

*Framber shoved: 7IP, 5H/0ER, 7K:1BB. Framber, since giving up 4ER in 4IP against the Cubs on May 15: 3GS, 22IP, 13H/1ER, 19K:4BB.

Shohei Ohtani vs Framber, career: 4x31, .129/.270/.226.

Mike Trout vs Framber, career: 2x19, .105/.292/.105.

Framber, on facing Shohei Ohtani:

I definitely get excited sometimes pitching against Ohtani. Obviously, he's probably the best player in the league right now - the MVP. But whenever I go up there, I see it as, I'm pitching against his teammates, and my teammates are the ones that also help me beat him, as well.

Danielle Lerner: How Framber cleaned up his defense.

*Phil Maton gave up his first earned run since May 3, allowing three hits in the process. He had allowed three hits in his previous seven games combined. 

*Drew Gilbert has some elbow discomfort, Will Wagner had hamate bone surgery, and Forrest F. Whitley will be out 3-4 months with his right lat strain, effectively ruling him out of playing for the Astros this season. Dana Brown blamed it on something with his delivery.

*Tyler Brown was promoted from Corpus to Sugar Land. His numbers are a little Yikes, but he had 19 strikeouts in 19.1IP for Corpus.

*Shoutout to Former Astros Great Jon Singleton, who was recalled by the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday. He's hitting .258/.384/.483 for Triple-A Nashville this season. It'll be his first major-league game since October 2, 2015.

*The Ringer: Dril is everyone. More specifically, he's a guy named Paul.

*A Musical Selection, because it's been stuck in my head for six weeks:

Saturday Morning Hot Links

The Astros beat the Oakland Triple-A's last night 5-1 in a game that felt a whole lot closer than it should have been. The Astros are 25-19, winners of five straight and eight of their last nine games.

The 2022 Astros opened the season with a rotation of Framber-Odorizzi-Verlander-Urquidy-Garcia. They threw 758IP, 52% of the innings Astros pitchers threw in 2022. This year those five have combined to throw 111.2IP, 28.3% of the Innings.

*Oakland is 10-36, a .217 "winning" "percentage." Now, the worst record in Major League history belongs to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who went 20-134 - a .130 winning percentage that saw them finish a wild-ass 84 games back. Jim Hughey, statistically the Spiders' best pitcher, posted a 4-30 record. Crazy Schmit went 2-17. Like, click that link. It's insane. 

But in the "Modern" Era (since 1901), Oakland's bastard grandfather, the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics, hold the honor of the worst winning percentage, going 36-117 (.235) - get this - three years after winning the World Series. In June and July the 1916 A's went 5-47. 

After 46 games the 1916 A's were 15-30-1 (don't ask questions - I don't know). The 2023 A's are five games worse. This will be fun to keep track of every day for the rest of the season.

*Oakland starter Ken Waldichuk came into the game with a 7.02 ERA, though that's inflated by his first two starts of the season, in which he threw 8.2IP, 17H/14ER, 7K:4BB, 7HR allowed. In his next six starts, it was more respectable: 32.1IP, 35H/18ER, 29K:19BB - a 5.01 ERA / 1.67 WHIP. So of course the Astros lowered his season ERA to 6.85. 

*Kyle Tucker had a good night, hitting a two-run shot in the 6th Inning to put the Astros up 4-1 - his first homer since May 5. He ended the night going 2x3 with a double, homer, walk. On May 9, Tucker's slash line was .264/.358/.440. Since then, he's hitting .355/.382/.613. 

Tucker did not know it was his own bobblehead night. Tucker:

The last couple of games, I've felt a little better at the plate with something I've been doing in the cage and trying to bring it out to the field. I feel good at the plate right now.

*Jake Meyers went 2x2 with 2BB - the first time in his career he's been on base four times in a single game. 

*Yordan Alvarez - whom, you'll remember, the Astros acquired in a trade with the Dodgers for Josh Fields - was 2x5 with a double. He's hitting .317/.388/.567 in May, and nine of his last 19 hits have been for extra-bases. He's at a season-high six games without a home run. His 417-foot double in the 4th Inning would have been a home run in 25 of the 30 MLB parks. (Also worth noting that Martin Maldonado's bases-loaded liner to left that was impressively tracked down by JJ Bleday was 105.1mph off the bat and had an xBA of .520).

*Jose Abreu went 1x2 with two walks and a run scored. It's the second time this season that Abreu has drawn two walks in a game. He has raised his OPS 29 points from .515 to .544 in this four-game home stand. His 110.1mph single in the 2nd Inning was the hardest-hit ball of the game, and his hardest-hit ball of the season.

*Jose Altuve was 0x4 with a walk in his season debut, featuring a GIDP. 

*The Astros left 10 men on base after going 2x12 w/RISP - including two innings of leaving the bases loaded. It doesn't feel like it, but the Astros are actually hitting .278/.349/.450 with runners in scoring position - above-average, relative to the rest of the league.

*Brandon Bielak had a nice outing, throwing 5IP for the second straight game, allowing 5H/1ER, 9K:3BB. The nine strikeouts are a career-high, breaking his previous high of 6K, which he had done twice, most recently on May 1. Bielak's last two starts: 10IP, 13H/2ER, 13K:3BB. McTaggart notes that his changeup has been the key to Bielak's recent success.

*Phil Maton extended his impressive start to the season, throwing another scoreless outing - the 17th such outing in 19 appearances. That said, he has allowed at least one baserunner in each of his last seven appearances. 

*Rafael Montero: 1IP, 1H/0ER, 1K:1BB. His last clean outing was on April 28 - nine appearances ago.

*Luis Garcia officially underwent Tommy John Surgery yesterday.

*Mauricio Dubon got some pre-game work in at 1B.

*Jose Altuve on Corpus' Drew Gilbert:

He's ready, man. Wow, beautiful swing, made some good plays...I really love the way him and a few more guys on that team are ready to play in the big leagues.

*Jose Urquidy may start throwing again next week.

*The Score's Travis Sawchuk has a bizarre article about the Astros "decline."

*The Crazy Story of How "Clue" Went From Forgotten Flop to Cult Favorite.

*GQ: The Controversial King of Hardcore Climbing.

*Financial Times: The Secret Lives of MI6's Top Female Spies.

*A Musical Selection, from The Sundays and lead singer Harriet Wheeler - whom I have had a crush on for over 25 years: